Article: Garrett Crochet Suddenly Looks Mortal. Is Time Away From Fenway the Cure-All?

[Brandon Glick]

Garrett Crochet makes his final start of the regular season tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays, and there are some... odd implications to consider. If the Boston Red Sox do win, they could propel the New York Yankees into first place in the AL East, which would mean they'd have to travel back to Toronto for their expected No. 4 vs. No. 5 Wild Card Round matchup. If they lose, though, they could be leapfrogged by the Detroit Tigers or Cleveland Guardians for the No. 5 seed, meaning they'd have to travel to face whichever of those two teams wins the AL Central in the first round of the playoffs.

Of course, the whole point right now is just to win as many as possible. Make the dance first, and worry about the opponent later. With Crochet on the mound, it feels like a pretty safe bet that the Red Sox will come out victorious tonight, just as they have in each of his last six starts.

Except, Crochet hasn't been the same wholly dominant force he was earlier in the season. In his four September starts, he's rocking a 4.68 ERA over 25.0 innings, courtesy of the .221/.253/.505 batting line he's allowed to opposing hitters. For the first time all season, the southpaw is surrendering a wOBA over .300 this month (.320), mostly due to the fact that he's allowed one-third of his season total of home runs since September began.

Now, calling him "mortal" is a relative term; most of the damage done to Crochet came during a seven-run outing against the white-hot Cleveland Guardians on Sept. 2. He followed that up with seven shutout innings against the Athletics, and then back-to-back quality starts against the Yankees and Rays. If he fires off another one against the Blue Jays tonight, he'll be up to a team-leading 22 on the year.

However, for as great as he's been, Crochet has been susceptible to a blow-up outing here or there. He's allowed five or more earned runs in a start four times, all of which have come since June began. Funnily enough, the Red Sox have won three of those games, but that kind of run support isn't a guarantee in October (especially without Roman Anthony). In a prospective Wild Card Round matchup with the New York Yankees and Max Fried, Crochet needs to resemble his first-half self.

• Garrett Crochet (1st Half): 2.23 ERA, .210/.262/.310. 14 home runs, 31.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 2.46 FIP
• Garrett Crochet (September): 4.68 ERA, .221/.253/.505, eight home runs, 35.4% strikeout rate, 4.0% walk rate, 4.99 FIP

Again, it's the home runs that stand out. Three of his four outings this month have yielded multi-home-run efforts by opposing lineups, including four by the Guardians in that aforementioned disaster. Most importantly, six of those eight home runs came at home, continuing an ugly tend for Crochet this season.

• Garrett Crochet HR/9 allowed at Fenway Park: 1.51
• Garrett Crochet HR/9 allowed at all other stadiums: 0.75

Yes, he's allowing literally double the amount of home runs at home as he is on the road this season. That's part of the nature of being a left-handed pitcher at Fenway Park—right-handed batters have hit 13 home runs against Crochet in 295 plate appearances at Fenway, compared to just eight home runs in 345 plate appearances on the road. The Green Monster giveth, and the Green Monster taketh away.

The good(?) news on this front is that, like his start in Toronto tonight, Crochet won't be pitching at home in the playoffs. At least not in the early rounds, anyway. He'll certainly pitch in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round, and then (should the Red Sox advance) in Game 1 and Game 5 in the ALDS. All of those starts, should they be necessary, would be on the road by virtue of the Red Sox holding the No. 5 seed. Considering that Crochet's ERA is 0.60 lower outside of Fenway (2.42 on the road, 3.02 at home), that's probably a boon for Boston.

There's plenty of reasons for this statistical oddity -- a cutter-sweeper-heavy arsenal that runs inside on right-handed batters naturally induces more pulled balls to left field -- but it's too late in the season to introduce any "fixes". Crochet is under contract for a while; there's plenty of time for him to figure out how to pitch more effectively around the odd dimensions of Fenway. For now, Alex Cora and company have done the right thing by lining up his starts to take place outside of Boston.

As for tonight's appearance, it's important that Crochet tangibly tries something to limit damage via the long ball. This is his final tune-up before his first-ever playoff start. Seeing as he remains elite in most other aspects of pitching (even during this relative slump), figuring out that one weak point could restore him to the impervious force he was earlier in the season.

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