Article: Red Sox Free Agent Targets: Could Max Fried Be the Next Red Sox Ace?

[Andrew Roberts]

By all indications, the Red Sox are in the market for a high-end starter. Here's why the former Atlanta ace might be a perfect fit in Boston.

The Red Sox took strides in the right direction last year, but it is hard to ignore the team’s late-season collapse. The lack of an experienced frontline starter certainly did not help. Tanner Houck has a bright future, but reaching a career-high 178 2/3 innings took a toll on his performance down the stretch last year. The ability to pitch that many innings at a high level will need to come in time. It seems the consensus among both analysts and fans of the team is that Houck would be best off as a number two starter behind an experienced ace, allowing Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, and Kutter Crawford to fill out the final three spots of the rotation.

Free agency offers a plethora of candidates to become the number one starter. Available pitchers include Blake Snell, Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, and Corbin Burnes (whom Brandon Glick wrote about last week). However, Max Fried may be the best fit of all as this team’s ace. I'll lay out the pros and cons of signing Fried, as well as whether I think the Sox should and will actually do so.

Pros

Consistency
Consistency might be Fried's biggest draw. While he's never won a Cy Young, over the past five seasons, he's never posted an ERA above 3.25 or a strikeout rate below 22%. This combination of efficiency, effectiveness, and endurance is very hard to find. It has led him to reach 165 innings four times during his career. Of the current Red Sox starters, only Giolito has had multiple 160 inning seasons). Fried's floor is a top-30 pitcher in baseball. I also believe he has the ceiling to win a Cy Young in the future. In 2020, his 2.25 ERA allowed him to finish fifth in the Cy Young voting. In 2022, when he ran a 2.48 ERA, he finished second.

Familiarity
Through his connection with Lucas Giolito, it’s likely Fried would fit in quickly within the Red Sox locker room. Fried, Flaherty, and Giolito were all part of the same high school rotation at Harvard-Westlake in Los Angeles. This could also strengthen Boston’s recruiting pitch. In fact, Giolito has already made his pitch for Fried quite publicly, mentioning on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast that they had talked about playing on the same big league team since they were 17.

Balance
As of right now, the Red Sox do not have a left-handed pitcher in their starting rotation. I think that makes it more likely the Red Sox will target a lefty for their new ace. While there are a handful of other lefties on the market, including Snell, Fried’s consistent track record and personal connection to Giolito may make him the most appealing of any lefty starter on the open market.

Cons

Durability
For any team preparing to offer a long-term contract to the 30-year-old Fried, his injury history has to be a concern. Fried hit the IL three different times during the 2023 season and made just 14 starts. He also missed time during the 2024 season with ulnar neuritis in his pitching elbow. However, that 2023 season is a bit of an outlier for Fried, who started 25 or more games in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024. He also started 11 in the shortened 2020 season with one brief IL stint.

Playoff Performance
Fried’s playoff outings have been a mixed bag. In 20 career playoff starts, he has a 5.10 ERA and 4.05 FIP. However, he’s certainly had his moments, including tossing six shutout innings in the clinching game of the 2021 World Series. Even good pitchers sometimes crack in the playoffs. Experience and success in big moments are both good signs that Fried may avoid doing this frequently in the future.

Price
We won't know until the offseason is over exactly how high the Red Sox expect their payroll to go. Despite being one of the most valuable teams and biggest markets in baseball, they have sat outside the top 10 in payroll for the last two seasons. Fried will certainly cost a lot of money. Jim Bowden projects him for a five-year, $174-million deal, while Ben Clemens has him at five years and $140 million. Filling the team's greatest area of need would make this expenditure well worth it, and their presence in the Juan Soto sweepstakes could be a sign that they are here to compete for the big-ticket free agents.

Should the Sox sign him?
While Fried may have his flaws, I feel the pros far outweigh the cons here. He’d be an instant fit in the locker room, balance out the rotation, and give the Red Sox a consistent force atop their rotation for years to come. Personally, I would offer Fried five years and $125 million out of the gate, but if it takes a six-year deal or a higher AAV to get it done, the Red Sox should remain open to that.

Will the Sox sign him?
I give it about a 30% chance. The Sox seem to be serious about spending this offseason, but it’s possible they get outbid by big-market teams or fill the need at the top of the rotation through other options like Burnes, Snell, or a trade for Garrett Crochet. However, Fried is a great fit in Boston and the Sox have a legitimate chance to sign him.

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