Jon Lester - some perspective

[Orange Juiced]

Jon Lester has had just a miserable season, obviously. No way to sugarcoat that. The real question is this: Is this just a bad season or is this the "real" Jon Lester moving forward. Nobody has a crystal ball, of course, but let's look at this.

 

Reasons to believe that this is the "real" Jon Lester:

 

- His velocity is down. Instead of sitting at 94-95, he now sits at 92-93.

- He has thrown a lot of innings the past 5 seasons (averages over 200 a year)

- Last 5 years of era+: 144, 136, 134, 125, 80. Not a good trend.

- Last 4 years of k/9: 10.0, 9.7, 8.5, 7.5. Again, not a good trend.

 

Reasons to believe that this is just a crappy year and that he should bounce back:

 

- He's always been good. From 2008-2011, his numbers have been remarkably consistent. ERA always in the low-to-mid threes, 200 ip, 180+ Ks, 15+ wins. Dude is a really good pitcher.

- His walk rate is way down this year, from 3.5 down to 2.8. And his strike percentage is higher this year (63% vs. 62% last year).

- What's happened is that he's giving up a TON of extra-base hits. 2008-2012 XBH%: 6.8, 6.3, 5.6, 6.9, 10.1. One of these things is not like the others.

- His line drive rate is also up (as one might expect): from 14% last year up to 21% this year. But he also had a 20% line drive rate in 2009, when he went 15-8, with a 3.41 era and a 1.23 whip and a 10.0 k/9. So he survived that LD rate that season just fine.

 

The bottom line is this: He's throwing just as many strikes as he ever has. But his mistakes are getting *HAMMERED* at unusual rates. I don't think it's just purely bad luck, because his velocity is down some (but he still throws 93-94, so it's not like he's suddenly turned into Jamie Moyer out there). But his BABIP number is off the charts: .334. That's up from .287 last year and .291 in 2010.

 

So when he misses, he is getting mangled for tons of extra-base hits. He is inducing fewer ground balls (a GB/FB rate of 0.91, which is the first time since '09 that it's been below 1.0). Guys are just hitting him at unusual rates.

 

Normally when you see something like this you can chalk it up to an injury or a serious loss of control or of speed. He's exhibited none of these. I think mostly he's missing in the strike zone (instead of hitting the corner he's leaving it out over the plate), and hitters JUST AREN'T MISSING HIS MISTAKES. It happens.

 

One final word on this by way of perspective. It's not a fair comp, but look at a guy like Steve Carlton, obviously one of the all-time greats. First three seasons:

 

14-9, 2.98

13-11, 2.99

17-11, 2.17

10-19, 3.73

 

I'm sure at that point in time, plenty of people were wondering, geez, what happened to Steve Carlton? He used to be such a great pitcher. But his era went up more than a run and a half in one season. Was he suddenly on the downswing? Turns out, no. Two years later he had his signature 27-10, 1.97 season and proceeded to have a HOF career. Interestingly, just after that signature year, he had another "bad" one (by his standards): 13-20, 3.90.

 

Most really good pitchers have down years from time to time. I think it's way too early to suggest that Jon Lester is cooked (as some critics have done). The guy is just 28 years of age. He probably has 5 more good years left in him minimum. If the Sox deal him, I believe he will rebound (I think he'll rebound anyway) and put up fantastic numbers in 2013 and we'll all be wondering why the Sox dealt him for nickels and dimes on the dollar.

[jacksonianmarch]

A 3.73ERA is not a 5.58ERA. Lester's issue is less with velocity and more with location. He is leaving the ball down the middle, which is why his BABIP is up and people are crushing him. If he locates again, he'll return to prominence

[Orange Juiced]

A 3.73ERA is not a 5.58ERA.

 

Obviously. But their starting point is obviously different too. The point is that it was a huge dropoff for Carlton from one year to the next. Pettitte had a similar thing happen. Lots of guys do. That was the point.

 

Lester's issue is less with velocity and more with location. He is leaving the ball down the middle' date=' which is why his BABIP is up and people are crushing him. If he locates again, he'll return to prominence[/quote']

 

I agree. And if his history is any indication, he almost certainly will. That was what I was trying to argue.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, history is littered with guys who suddenly lost their command and never regained it, but those guys typically lost the zone entirely and walked the park. Lester is missing everything by about 6 inches into the zone. He'd be better off if he was wild and walking people since he'd then at least not be as predictable. Also, something he has entirely lost is his ability to come inside. When a hitter knows he'll be extending his arms on almost a pitch by pitch basis, it makes for a very comfortable at bat.

[lospunchados]

Lester's velocity isn't really down. He is .4 miles per hour down from last year and .8 down form his career high for a year. His Cutter is actually at the highest miles per hour of his career. It is all lack of location and not as much movement. It's all missing by way to much.

 

If it was velocity it would look a lot more like Ubaldo Jiminez who's average fastball speed for the last three years went, 96.3, 93.9, 92.4.

[jung]

I actually think it is Beckett that has suffered lost velo over the course of the last few years. Although the fact that Lester's velo is up on par does not encourage me at all because his throwing motion is just so awkward now. Who the hell knows where his velo is coming from. What if he finally injures himself throwing like this?

[SoxSport]

Both these guys have gone to pot--for different reasons. I still think neither of them are in 100% shape.

Let's face it. the Sox have a leadership--I mean management--problem.

[Designated Hater]

Lester has been tainted by poor leadership. Who is the REAL pitching coach? His friends are Beckett and Lackey.

 

This says more about his character and ability to be a FOLLOWER than be a big game leader.

 

Get rid of all the negative pieces and let's see how this guy does.