Who do you think is gonna steal more bases?

[Dojji]

What inconsistency? We have a pretty good idea where Ellsbury will be, injury notwithstanding -- somewhere in the .290 range in average. 340 range in OBP, and a lot of baserunning speed. As a leadoff package there are few players consistently better than that.

 

I've always felt that increased likelihood of actually scoring if you do get on base is one possible factor that can mitigate a low OBP, and Ellsbury's got the speed to make that claim like few major league players, and a decent (not great but OK) on base ability to boot. Take his package as a whole and you can count the superior leadoff hitters in MLB on one hand. Unless we get some kind of injury complication I have no problem pencilling in Jacoby in the 1 hole.

[Sox]

I think there's an actual stat that measures runs scored by the aid of a stolen base, I can't remember it though, what I do remember is that if a guy gets cought stealing then the next guy hits a homerun, it adds a negative value to the stat, & if he steals second & then scores on a single, it adds a positive value.

[Dojji]

If you could find a source for that it'd make interesting reading.

[Sox]

the stat's name is "stolen base runs", Ellsbury's highest was 13.8 in 2009 (41st all-time), Crawford's highest was 12 in 2006 (57th all-time), here's a link:

 

http://www.alexreisner.com/baseball/stats/leaders?s=SBR

[Dojji]

That's fascinating. That site is going in my bookmarks.

[ORS]

you don't want a guy with some pop leading off' date=' solo homeruns are practically useless.[/quote']

One, totatlly disagree, all runs are good.

 

Two, it isn't a matter of putting one guy ahead of the other just because he has more power. We are talking about two players with similar skill sets, but one of them looks to be a better performer in the very important OBP and SLG categories. The other will steal more bases (probably, assuming good health for both), but by a marginal amount. I put the better hitter at the top of the lineup.

 

Also, let me caveat this. I'd have no problem hitting Ellsbury at the top with Crawford not far behind....if....big if.....there weren't much better hitters than both that should be hitting 3, 4, 5, and 6. I have no desire in seeing both of them near the top at the expense of hitting Ortiz 6 and Drew 7.

 

The choice is clear to me, one of them is at the top, one of them is near the bottom. That hitter should be Ellsbury.....until he proves otherwise. This last point speaks to Dojji's comment. Last year was his chance to establish his consistent performance, but he was out all year. We have no idea which Ellsbury we get...the .330 OBP guy from 2008 or the .355 guy from 2009. Time will tell.

[Sox]

SLG shouldn't be considered at all when choosing a leadoff hitter, as a matter of fact, the higher the SLG percentage is, the better it is for the hitter to hit 3rd or 4th, not only homeruns go to waste, but doubles & triples too, yes a homerun is good, but its better when there are men on base, if managers think that way, we'd see Gonzalez, Pujols, & Cabrera as leadoff hitters, just to save them a couple of extra plate appearances (in the end, they'd get less RBIs), both Ellsbury & Crawford had pathetic OBP in the past, & we don't know which Crawford (OBP-wise) would show up just as much as we know Ellsbury, so the SLG percentage is the tie breaker, the better slugger shouldn't be the leadoff hitter.

[Palodios]

I think Ells/Craw at 9-1 is the best way to start the season. Crawford hits directly after an OBP guy who can double-steal with him, and it doesn't leave them too vulnerable to LOOGYs. If Ellsbury gets back to form though-- he'll be getting closer to his prime, and he might end up being just too damn good to bat 9th. Or he'll get injured again, and we don't have to worry about it.

[Dojji]

Or he'll get injured again' date=' and we don't have to worry about it.[/quote']

 

People need to seriously get over the whole rib injury thing. He had a freak accident on the field, tried to come back, reinjured it, tried to come back, reinjured it. It's all the same injury, and he was largely recovered from the compilations of it by end of last year. This is not a guy who if his hamstring's fine his back is out, and if his back is good it's his wrist. It was one freaking injury.

[SoxFanForsyth]

People need to seriously get over the whole rib injury thing. He had a freak accident on the field' date=' tried to come back, reinjured it, tried to come back, reinjured it. It's all the same injury, and he was largely recovered from the compilations of it by end of last year. This is not a guy who if his hamstring's fine his back is out, and if his back is good it's his wrist. It was one freaking injury.[/quote']

 

Exactly. I highly doubt Ellsbury would be starting tomorrow against NE if he was in any pain or had any lingering effects of his injury. I just hope he's not overly aggressive in his spring training games because he's just itching to get back into games. Same with Pedroia.

 

I'm still really big on having Ells - Pedroia going 1-2.

 

Ellsbury posted a .355 OBP in 2009, which is right around where I would see him this year.

Pedroia has a 1.17 BB:K ratio, a career .370 OBP, with fantastic gap power and is good for 15-20 HR a year. He sees 4.33 pitches per plate appearance, so he's going to give Ells plenty of opportunities to run, and he's a double machine, so he's not going to get into our #3 hitters way when he's on the base paths.

[Sox]

I think Ells/Craw at 9-1 is the best way to start the season. Crawford hits directly after an OBP guy who can double-steal with him' date=' and it doesn't leave them too vulnerable to LOOGYs. If Ellsbury gets back to form though-- he'll be getting closer to his prime, and he might end up being just too damn good to bat 9th. Or he'll get injured again, and we don't have to worry about it.[/quote']

 

but Ellsbury hits lefties better, so he's not really vulnerable to LOOGYs.

[SCM33]

One, totatlly disagree, all runs are good.

 

Two, it isn't a matter of putting one guy ahead of the other just because he has more power. We are talking about two players with similar skill sets, but one of them looks to be a better performer in the very important OBP and SLG categories. The other will steal more bases (probably, assuming good health for both), but by a marginal amount. I put the better hitter at the top of the lineup.

 

Also, let me caveat this. I'd have no problem hitting Ellsbury at the top with Crawford not far behind....if....big if.....there weren't much better hitters than both that should be hitting 3, 4, 5, and 6. I have no desire in seeing both of them near the top at the expense of hitting Ortiz 6 and Drew 7.

 

The choice is clear to me, one of them is at the top, one of them is near the bottom. That hitter should be Ellsbury.....until he proves otherwise. This last point speaks to Dojji's comment. Last year was his chance to establish his consistent performance, but he was out all year. We have no idea which Ellsbury we get...the .330 OBP guy from 2008 or the .355 guy from 2009. Time will tell.

 

 

I agree. A run is a run.

 

Here are some of my thoughts though. A leadoff hitter, is only a leafoff hitter ONCE in the game. After that, its all about matchups. The best hitter in your lineup is your #3 hitter, therefore....you want guys in front of him who get on base. I dont care if they are fat, fast, skinny, slow......it doesnt matter.

 

Ive spoken to Dipre about this (my lineup proposal), he disagrees with me, but so be it. The best player on the team at getting on base is JD Drew (and it pains me to say it, bc I cant stand him).

 

What about a lineup of:

RF Drew

2B Pedroia

1B Agon

3B Youkilis

DH Ortiz

SS Scutaro

LF Crawford

C Salty

CF Ellsbury

 

Remember, the leadoff hitter only leads off once. You want guys who get on base in front or your best hitter. Drew and Pedroia are not slouches on the basepaths, in fact both are very good baserunners. Most people want to put Ellsbury and Crawford back to back....but I think that splitting them up extends the lineup. This lineup also provides power throughout. The lineup maintains a LH/RH mathcup.

 

Most importantly, the lineup has a bunch of speed at the bottom of the lineup to set the table for guys who take a bunch of pitches (Drew) which allows for SB opportunities which puts guys in scoring position for contact guys (Pedroia) and also allows the best hitters in your lineup (Youk and Agon) to get a TON of ABs with guys cluttering the bases (Crawford, Ellsbury, Drew, Pedroia). Think about how crazy it would be for Youk and Agon getting all those opportunities to drive in those guys.

[Sox]

I agree. A run is a run.

 

Here are some of my thoughts though. A leadoff hitter, is only a leafoff hitter ONCE in the game. After that, its all about matchups. The best hitter in your lineup is your #3 hitter, therefore....you want guys in front of him who get on base. I dont care if they are fat, fast, skinny, slow......it doesnt matter.

 

Ive spoken to Dipre about this (my lineup proposal), he disagrees with me, but so be it. The best player on the team at getting on base is JD Drew (and it pains me to say it, bc I cant stand him).

 

What about a lineup of:

RF Drew

2B Pedroia

1B Agon

3B Youkilis

DH Ortiz

SS Scutaro

LF Crawford

C Salty

CF Ellsbury

 

Remember, the leadoff hitter only leads off once. You want guys who get on base in front or your best hitter. Drew and Pedroia are not slouches on the basepaths, in fact both are very good baserunners. Most people want to put Ellsbury and Crawford back to back....but I think that splitting them up extends the lineup. This lineup also provides power throughout. The lineup maintains a LH/RH mathcup.

 

Most importantly, the lineup has a bunch of speed at the bottom of the lineup to set the table for guys who take a bunch of pitches (Drew) which allows for SB opportunities which puts guys in scoring position for contact guys (Pedroia) and also allows the best hitters in your lineup (Youk and Agon) to get a TON of ABs with guys cluttering the bases (Crawford, Ellsbury, Drew, Pedroia). Think about how crazy it would be for Youk and Agon getting all those opportunities to drive in those guys.

 

Youk is better at getting on base, regardless, I don't like your lineup, you have Crawford at the bottom of the lineup with absolutely no protection, the top of the lineup has no speed whatsoever, pitchers are gonna get very comfortable & the stolen bases at the bottom of the order would go to waste.

teams that have a very high OBP guy at the top but with no speed sacrifice the next batter to advance the first batter, we have the luxury of two of the best base stealers in the league, also, Ellsbury & Crawford at the bottom is a lot of runner in scoring position opportunities (in Ellsbury's case, a lot of sac fly opportunities too), we want as much of those opportunities as possible, & we want our best hitters at the plate with those opportunities, Ellsbury & Crawford at the bottom also means perhaps 10 less stolen bases each.

[SCM33]

Youk is better at getting on base, regardless, I don't like your lineup, you have Crawford at the bottom of the lineup with absolutely no protection, the top of the lineup has no speed whatsoever, pitchers are gonna get very comfortable & the stolen bases at the bottom of the order would go to waste.

teams that have a very high OBP guy at the top but with no speed sacrifice the next batter to advance the first batter, we have the luxury of two of the best base stealers in the league, also, Ellsbury & Crawford at the bottom is a lot of runner in scoring position opportunities (in Ellsbury's case, a lot of sac fly opportunities too), we want as much of those opportunities as possible, & we want our best hitters at the plate with those opportunities, Ellsbury & Crawford at the bottom also means perhaps 10 less stolen bases each.

 

I was thinking in terms of leadoff hitters. Youk is not going to lead off. Drew can.

 

They are paying Crawford big bucks because he is an elite player, not a player that needs "protection". He isnt Barry Bonds, its not like they will pitch around him, remember....they dont want him on the base paths, so they WILL pitch to him regardless of protection.

 

The top of the order doesnt have to have speed. Thats a misconception of what a leadoff hitter is. Rickey Henderson is the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, and since he is also the career stolen base leader, people assume that a leadoff hitter MUST be fast. A leadoff hitter needs to get on base. Drew and Pedroia are not "slow". They just dont have Vince Coleman speed.

 

Stolen bases do not go to waste if you have guys in position to drive them in. If they are at the top, or bottom...they arent wasted as long as guys can drive them in.

 

This lineup will turnover a ton. This team will score a lot of runs. They would not lose 10 SBs because they are the bottom of the lineup, they would lose stolen bases because guys hitting behind them arent taking pitches. With those guys at the bottom and Drew at the top, they will have plenty of opportunity to steal bases.

[Sox]

I was thinking in terms of leadoff hitters. Youk is not going to lead off. Drew can.

 

They are paying Crawford big bucks because he is an elite player, not a player that needs "protection". He isnt Barry Bonds, its not like they will pitch around him, remember....they dont want him on the base paths, so they WILL pitch to him regardless of protection.

 

The top of the order doesnt have to have speed. Thats a misconception of what a leadoff hitter is. Rickey Henderson is the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, and since he is also the career stolen base leader, people assume that a leadoff hitter MUST be fast. A leadoff hitter needs to get on base. Drew and Pedroia are not "slow". They just dont have Vince Coleman speed.

 

Stolen bases do not go to waste if you have guys in position to drive them in. If they are at the top, or bottom...they arent wasted as long as guys can drive them in.

 

This lineup will turnover a ton. This team will score a lot of runs. They would not lose 10 SBs because they are the bottom of the lineup, they would lose stolen bases because guys hitting behind them arent taking pitches. With those guys at the bottom and Drew at the top, they will have plenty of opportunity to steal bases.

 

Salty would be a rally killer, & Crawford would almost be useless if Salty is gonna keep ending innings.

[Dojji]

I'd like to give Salty a good long chance before declaring him an utter rally killer. The Sox think they've fixed him, I'd like to give them a chance to see if they're right before closing the door here.

[Palodios]

Even so, Crawford is far better off hitting before the sluggers than Salty.

[Sox]

I'd like to give Salty a good long chance before declaring him an utter rally killer. The Sox think they've fixed him' date=' I'd like to give them a chance to see if they're right before closing the door here.[/quote']

 

yes they should give him a chance, but they shouldn't give him such a great responsibility (driving Crawford in), of course if he lives up to his hype, that's a different story, Buchholz was almost declared a bust before he broke out last year.

[ORS]

SLG shouldn't be considered at all when choosing a leadoff hitter' date=' as a matter of fact, the higher the SLG percentage is, the better it is for the hitter to hit 3rd or 4th, not only homeruns go to waste, but doubles & triples too, yes a homerun is good, but its better when there are men on base, if managers think that way, we'd see Gonzalez, Pujols, & Cabrera as leadoff hitters, just to save them a couple of extra plate appearances (in the end, they'd get less RBIs), both Ellsbury & Crawford had pathetic OBP in the past, & we don't know which Crawford (OBP-wise) would show up just as much as we know Ellsbury, so the SLG percentage is the tie breaker, the better slugger shouldn't be the leadoff hitter.[/quote']

Yeah, assuming all other things equal, the higher SLG guy should leadoff on this team, because if he's not hitting #1, then he's 7/8/9....again, on this team. The better hitter should get more AB, it's as simple as that. You are usually generalities and a fantasy scenario where there aren't better people to occupy the 2-6 slots, but the reality is as I'm stating it.

 

EDIT: And if, as it appears from your other posts, saying that both should be at the top, ie moving Drew to 7th and taking either of Youk/Gonzo out of the #3 spot, then, and there's really not a tactful way to state this, that's just monumentally stupid.

[ORS]

I agree. A run is a run.

 

Here are some of my thoughts though. A leadoff hitter, is only a leafoff hitter ONCE in the game. After that, its all about matchups. The best hitter in your lineup is your #3 hitter, therefore....you want guys in front of him who get on base. I dont care if they are fat, fast, skinny, slow......it doesnt matter.

 

Ive spoken to Dipre about this (my lineup proposal), he disagrees with me, but so be it. The best player on the team at getting on base is JD Drew (and it pains me to say it, bc I cant stand him).

 

What about a lineup of:

RF Drew

2B Pedroia

1B Agon

3B Youkilis

DH Ortiz

SS Scutaro

LF Crawford

C Salty

CF Ellsbury

 

Remember, the leadoff hitter only leads off once. You want guys who get on base in front or your best hitter. Drew and Pedroia are not slouches on the basepaths, in fact both are very good baserunners. Most people want to put Ellsbury and Crawford back to back....but I think that splitting them up extends the lineup. This lineup also provides power throughout. The lineup maintains a LH/RH mathcup.

 

Most importantly, the lineup has a bunch of speed at the bottom of the lineup to set the table for guys who take a bunch of pitches (Drew) which allows for SB opportunities which puts guys in scoring position for contact guys (Pedroia) and also allows the best hitters in your lineup (Youk and Agon) to get a TON of ABs with guys cluttering the bases (Crawford, Ellsbury, Drew, Pedroia). Think about how crazy it would be for Youk and Agon getting all those opportunities to drive in those guys.

I actually like that a lot, but I'd tweak it a bit. I'd go with Crawford and Ellsbury after Ortiz, as them being on base would result in more pitches to hit for Scutaro and Saltalamacchia.