Jason Werth or Carl Crawford

[BSN07]

I won't mind Crawford if it is coupled with trading Ellsbury+ for Upton. Getting Crawford would be a big move. Coupling him with Upton would be massive shift. Or trading Drew and signing Werth would work also

[Meh]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/12/red_sox_sit_dow.html

 

Hopefully giant briefcases full of cash are present. haha. :harhar:

 

Hope you guys sign him, not being sarcastic but just really hope you do!

[Spudboy]

I know that's their "shooting for the moon" demands. But it Probably means 6-7 years for Crawford(still too much) and probably 4-5 years for Werth. Not as bad but till has some inherit risks involved. But I guess that can be said for any deal longer then 4 years. I really am perched high atop the fence on this matter. I see so many pros and cons for each' date='[b'] but I'm still not sure I think the Sox will sign either[/b].

 

For good reasons. Neither players is "elite" (although definition of the word remains nebulous). And the "new owners" have only gone big once. For Tex (Horseface 1).

 

I don't see the Sox buying in on Crawford (my choice) for 6 years, much less 8 years.

As well, I don't see them giving Werth more than 4-5 years. From a business stand point, the cost would seem to out weigh the return.

[PineRider]

I won't mind Crawford if it is coupled with trading Ellsbury+ for Upton. Getting Crawford would be a big move.

 

I think having two left-handed cheetahs on the Sox would be ridiculously awesome.

 

Think of the on base terror they'd cause to pitching staffs? Two guys with the potential to turn walks and singles into doubles, it'd be a beautiful thing.

 

I don't understand why some peeps think these two similar players couldn't be a 1,3 in the lineup (not to suggest BSN07 thinks that).

 

Look at this left-right-left Franconish lineup:

 

Ells (L)

Laser Show ®

The Perfect Storm (L)

Youk ®

Papi (L)

PTBN @1B

Drew w/ a splash of Kalish

Scoot / Jed / Whateva

Horrible Catcher

 

If you had Crawford in Left, Ells at Center and eventually Kalish in Right, would there be a more speedy (and young) outfield in the MLB? Doubt it.

 

Offer Crawford the World. Then fix the corner and bolster the BP. Please Theo?

[Spudboy]

I think having two left-handed cheetahs on the Sox would be ridiculously awesome.

 

Think of the on base terror they'd cause to pitching staffs? Two guys with the potential to turn walks and singles into doubles, it'd be a beautiful thing.

 

I don't understand why some peeps think these two similar players couldn't be a 1,3 in the lineup (not to suggest BSN07 thinks that).

 

Look at this left-right-left Franconish lineup:

 

Ells (L)

Laser Show ®

The Perfect Storm (L)

Youk ®

Papi (L)

PTBN @1B

Drew w/ a splash of Kalish

Scoot / Jed / Whateva

Horrible Catcher

 

If you had Crawford in Left, Ells at Center and eventually Kalish in Right, would there be a more speedy (and young) outfield in the MLB? Doubt it.

 

Offer Crawford the World. Then fix the corner and bolster the BP. Please Theo?

 

 

POTY. candidate.

[sheffieldcelt]

Deleted post

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Deleted pot

 

Someone already posted this link lol.

[GoBruins2011]

Good news for us Crawford fans I see!

[Palodios]

Jayson Werth .296 average 27 HR .388 OBP .921 OPS Age 31, looking for a 4-5 year contract.

Adrian Gonzalez .298 average 31 HR .393 OBP .904 OPS Will be age 29 when looking for a 7-8 year contract.

 

Werth is #1 in OPS for a RF--by far--this year.

Gonzalez is #6 in OPS for a 1B this year.

 

Hmm....

[italstallianion]

Although one plays in Philadelphia, one of the biggest hitters parks (especially to left field, to which Werth is a righty) and the other plays in San Diego, which is almost by FAR, the biggest pitcher's park. Imagine what would happen if Werth played in San Diego and Gonzalez played in Philadelphia.

[Palodios]

I still have a headache from the last time this argument was going on. But in summary, park factors are severely overrated, and making comparisons between players by position is heavily overlooked.

[Dipre]

I still have a headache from the last time this argument was going on. But in summary' date=' park factors are severely overrated.[/quote']

 

No they're not.

 

And both Adrians are perfect example of that, with Gonzales being the most extreme of cases.

 

First off, the statistics don't lie:

 

Adrian Gonzales lifetime splits:

 

Home: .800 OPS, .440 SLG%

 

Road: .943 OPS, .568 SLG%

 

It's not that they're overrated per se, but that they only apply in specific cases with specific stadiums.

 

But let me ask you something, physically speaking, is it easier to hit a homerun to left field in a park where shallow left is 318 feet away and the deepest part of left is 368 feet or a park where shallow left is 330 and the deepest part is 380?

 

Or is it easier to hit a HR in a place where the wind blows in severely or it creates a wind-tunnel carrying balls outside the stadium?

 

It shouldn't give you a headache if it makes sense.

[BSN07]

No they're not.

 

And both Adrians are perfect example of that, with Gonzales being the most extreme of cases.

 

First off, the statistics don't lie:

 

Adrian Gonzales lifetime splits:

 

Home: .800 OPS, .440 SLG%

 

Road: .943 OPS, .568 SLG%

 

It's not that they're overrated per se, but that they only apply in specific cases with specific stadiums.

 

But let me ask you something, physically speaking, is it easier to hit a homerun to left field in a park where shallow left is 318 feet away and the deepest part of left is 368 feet or a park where shallow left is 330 and the deepest part is 380?

 

Or is it easier to hit a HR in a place where the wind blows in severely or it creates a wind-tunnel carrying balls outside the stadium?

 

It shouldn't give you a headache if it makes sense.

 

Where would one find the OPS plus rankings? Isn't that the best combination of a players OPS with adjustments for park factors? I'm looking on Fangraphs but don't see it anywhere.

[BSN07]

I still have a headache from the last time this argument was going on. But in summary' date=' park factors are severely overrated, and making comparisons between players by position is heavily overlooked.[/quote']

 

Adrian Beltre would like to say hello. They are not the be all end all. But park factors should be taken into consideration. And Agon swing is tailor maid for Fenway. His real power is to Left Center. He will be a doubles and HR machine at Fenway IMO.

[Palodios]

No they're not

 

Yes, yes they are. Just because you were too stubborn to give in, doesn't mean you didn't lose the Beltre argument. Park factors affected his performance, but not to the severe extent you claim it did. Beltre simply hits better away from home, and every stat showed that.

[Dipre]

Yes' date=' yes they are. Just because you were too stubborn to give in, doesn't mean you didn't lose the Beltre argument. Park factors affected his performance, but not to the severe extent you claim it did. Beltre simply hits better away from home, and every stat showed that.[/quote']

 

"Lost" the Beltre argument?Ok.

 

You failed to give any statistical or logical data why his performance would spike so high after getting out of the AL West. He had a fluky SLG spike based on doubles away from home on what has been the premier doubles park for RHH for the last few years. And most of those came guess where: You guessed it, AL East stadiums (19 of them). In roughly 50% of the ABs he had in away stadiums.

 

But, how do you explain Adrian Gonzales then? Does he simply "hit better away from home" or does his home ballpark really really suck?

 

It's not that i refuse to give in, but that you apparently refuse to acknowledge something that is simply explained by the laws of physics. Just ask the Colorado Rockies, who had to resort to the humidor to end the fireworks display they had at that stadium, or the Jet-Stream they have at NYS that turns a lot of lefty pop-up machines into the re-incarnation of Babe Ruth.

 

Have you ever played baseball?

 

If you have, then you should know that the bigger the stadium and the less the ball carries, the harder you have to hit the ball to get it out of the park, but apparently you're too stubborn to acknowledge that. .

[Dipre]

Where would one find the OPS plus rankings? Isn't that the best combination of a players OPS with adjustments for park factors? I'm looking on Fangraphs but don't see it anywhere.

 

Baseball Reference. Who'd have thought that the "over-rated" park factors would force people to create a statistic that accounted for them.

[BSN07]

Werth 2008-2010 OPS+,

 

2008- 121

2009- 129

2010- 145

 

Agon 2008-2010 OPS+,

 

2008- 139

2009- 162

2010- 152

 

 

Think that about wraps that up . Thanks for the site Dipre.

[SoxSport]

I think it'll be Werth for 4-5 years. A RHd power bat has got to be a priority.

[Will617]

I still have a headache from the last time this argument was going on. But in summary' date=' park factors are severely overrated, and making comparisons between players by position is heavily overlooked.[/quote']

 

I don't know how proving park factors don't apply very well to Beltre proves that park factors are overrated. They definitely do exist, and they definitely play a large role. Just look at the numbers. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Obviously, the numbers change in different seasons, but they definitely show a trend. I think that the quality of an offense also affects the numbers somehow, but I'm not sure how.

There's also a strong trend towards hitters typically hitting better at home, although they are clearly less likely to in large parks (and more likely to in small parks). If A-Gon hits about .150 OPS lower with a home-field advantage (which I would ballpark estimate put at about .050 OPS or so), you could expect him to perform far better in a smaller park.

[GoBruins2011]

OPS is the only stat that counts. Doesn't matter if you were a stiff in a bigger yard. Also home away splits don't count either it's all OPS all day everyday.

[Dipre]

OPS is the only stat that counts. Doesn't matter if you were a stiff in a bigger yard. Also home away splits don't count either it's all OPS all day everyday.

 

Baseball for dummies, lesson 2:

 

Evaluating players:

 

When you going to evaluate player for signing, you need know everything about player because sometimes player benefit or is harmed by the specific nature of ballpark player used to play in.

 

If you notice that player on little ballpark no hit well on the road, you can conclude that player stats is product of the ballpark, and could flop if taken to bigger park, and vice versa.

 

Things like that are important because you need to know how player skillset will react to new ballpark, as seen by players like everyone who ever played in Coors in the early 2000's, and players like Adrian Beltre and Adrian Gonzales who hit well outside of big big home park.

[BSN07]

The Red Sox, Tigers and Phillies are seen as the most serious suitors for Jayson Werth, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

 

Anywhere but Detroit. If Beltre takes the Oakland deal and Detroit signs either Crawford or Werth the Sox are stuck with no 1st round picks. They have been taking advantage of the compensation pick system for awhile. Guess it was bound to happen that they get screwed one of these years.

[GoBruins2011]

Anywhere but Detroit. If Beltre takes the Oakland deal and Detroit signs either Crawford or Werth the Sox are stuck with no 1st round picks. They have been taking advantage of the compensation pick system for awhile. Guess it was bound to happen that they get screwed one of these years.

 

What amazes me is the White Sox and Tigers who have less resources then the Red Sox are making moves and our front office is jerking off. It's getting to be the same old song.

[italstallianion]

What amazes me is the White Sox and Tigers who have less resources then the Red Sox are making moves and our front office is jerking off. It's getting to be the same old song.

 

 

What amazes me is that you're still here.

[Palodios]

"Lost" the Beltre argument?Ok.

 

You failed to give any statistical or logical data why his performance would spike so high after getting out of the AL West. He had a fluky SLG spike based on doubles away from home on what has been the premier doubles park for RHH for the last few years. And most of those came guess where: You guessed it, AL East stadiums (19 of them). In roughly 50% of the ABs he had in away stadiums.

 

But, how do you explain Adrian Gonzales then? Does he simply "hit better away from home" or does his home ballpark really really suck?

 

Excuse me? You didn't provide one single bit of statistical evidence whatsoever. You keep making claims that you aren't backing up. .872 is how he hit in the AL East. Do you have any idea where the big boost in his OPS came from? The AL West! Over 19 games in AL West stadiums he hit 1.077. It is as if you made your claim that he'd do well at the beginning of the year, and now that he did well, you completely forgot about actually looking at the stats and seeing if you were right, and just made the assumption that you were.

 

As far as why he hit so much better this year? I have no clue. But I'm assuming its the same reason why he hit .714 in 2003, and 1.017 in 2004, both in LA. That sort of improvement isn't natural.

 

Park factors do affect how players hit, but it also affects how players pitch, and how managers build their teams. But a 20% boost in production? No dice.

[GoBruins2011]

Excuse me? You didn't provide one single bit of statistical evidence whatsoever. You keep making claims that you aren't backing up. .872 is how he hit in the AL East. Do you have any idea where the big boost in his OPS came from? The AL West! Over 19 games in AL West stadiums he hit 1.077. It is as if you made your claim that he'd do well at the beginning of the year, and now that he did well, you completely forgot about actually looking at the stats and seeing if you were right, and just made the assumption that you were.

 

As far as why he hit so much better this year? I have no clue. But I'm assuming its the same reason why he hit .714 in 2003, and 1.017 in 2004, both in LA. That sort of improvement isn't natural.

 

Park factors do affect how players hit, but it also affects how players pitch, and how managers build their teams. But a 20% boost in production? No dice.

 

Well done.

[Dipre]

Excuse me? You didn't provide one single bit of statistical evidence whatsoever. You keep making claims that you aren't backing up. .872 is how he hit in the AL East. Do you have any idea where the big boost in his OPS came from? The AL West! Over 19 games in AL West stadiums he hit 1.077. It is as if you made your claim that he'd do well at the beginning of the year, and now that he did well, you completely forgot about actually looking at the stats and seeing if you were right, and just made the assumption that you were.

 

As far as why he hit so much better this year? I have no clue. But I'm assuming its the same reason why he hit .714 in 2003, and 1.017 in 2004, both in LA. That sort of improvement isn't natural.

 

Park factors do affect how players hit, but it also affects how players pitch, and how managers build their teams. But a 20% boost in production? No dice.

 

Excuse me?

 

Does this mean you have bypassed most of the other posts?

 

Let's go step by step:

 

Number one:

 

His road performance was a fuke:

 

Both ORS and i pointed this out in posts made before. He hit above his career averages in BABIP on the road, and also hit an inordinate amount of XBH on the road, pumping his SLG waaaay above his home numbers.

 

And also, as noted in a post above, most of those XBH came in AL East stadiums! (and he played a grand total of 19 games in the AL West, a SSS that wouldn't have a third of the impact when compared to the division he actually played in ) maybe you simply glanced over it, so let me post it again.

 

Let's break down his numbers by ALE and other divisions:

 

Beltre's overall numbers:

 

.321/.365/.553 49 2B, 28 HR, 2 3B, 189 hits.

 

Now let's check out his numbers in Fenway:

 

.314/.351/ .881 19 2B, 13 HR, 0 3B. (By the way, this is the first part of the massive hole in your argument, since his career home OPS is below .800, so even the boost to his home stats was massive).

 

Now let's get into the meat of the argument: Total Bases.

 

To calculate Slg% you can simply divide total bases by AB's, therefore, the number of total bases is what inflates your slugging percentage, which is what created the massive statistical difference in his home/away splits (which wasn't even that massive, but don't tell anyone).

 

Here's the thing:

 

Beltre collected 72 TB's against the AL East in less than 50% of the AB's. (140) than he collected against the rest of the stadiums with a SLG%: of 512. The issue with this is that, while it makes a part of your argument correct (He wasn't just feasting on AL East stadiums) it also undermines another part of your argument. Beltre did almost of his damage in stadiums which had a positive park factor for RHH (you can verify that by going to hit tracker and checking out the amount of XBH hit by righties in any given stadiums when stacked up against lefties as well as common sens) last year with the exception of Oakland and Seattle.

 

Beltre SLG% by park and their park factor:

 

(I'm using three-year park factor and XBH data for the rankings):

 

1) Coors Field: (1st) SLG% 1.000

 

2) Oakland Coliseum: (19th) .875

 

3) Angel Stadium: (13th) .769

 

4) Citizens Bank (11th) .727

5) Camden Yards (5th) .667

 

6) Rogers Centre (8th) .636

7) Tropicana Field (15th) .611

 

8) US Cellular (4th) .600

 

9) At&T: (12th) .600

 

10) Kauffman: (10th) .556

 

11) Rangers: (3rd) .538

 

12) Fenway: (7th) .521

13) Comerica: (17th) .444

 

14) Yankee: (2nd) .243

 

15: Target: (16th and single-year data) .231

 

By compiling some information about the amount of XBH (mostly HR's and 2B's) in www.hittracker.com and www.mlb.com (most of which i had handy from a previous park factor discussion) i was able to highlight the parks that are most conductive to RHH power (which are highlighted above and the "launching pads" italicized), and we can come to the following conclusion, and it's that Beltre, a RHH, performed reasonably in parks conductive to RHH power than in stadiums much more suited for LHH power (Comerica, Yankee, Target, which are coincidentially the bottom 3) and also hit the lights out of the launching pads.

 

Combine that with the fact that on the 3 stadiums in the AL East where RHH boast the best power boost (Fenway, Rogers, Camden) he had a composite .636 SLG% over 347 AB's. And if we include Tropicana that could be characterized as "neutral" in terms of both Park Factor and XBH ratio, we get the following: .550 SLG. Now i could go into greater detail about how he performed notably better in stadiums that are known conductors for RH power (US Cellular) or those that surprised me (AT&T), but know this, the way a park is constructed does influence how a hitter hits and how much power he generates on a stadium-by-stadium basis, and this is why players need to be analyzed depending on the environment they play in.

 

Also, your initial argument was that the "FO got lucky with Beltre's production" which was disproven long ago, since you admitted that they were probably expecting increased production from Beltre (even admitting you did expect a mid- high .800 OPS out of him) but that production was inflated by a fluky road performance, while you conveniently ignored the fact that his home production had also spiked to near-2004 levels.

 

In conclusion, Beltre, like most hitters, is affected by the park they play in if said park has extreme factors, and this research has been very informative for me, and i expect it to be so for you as well even though, to be honest, i did all of this research strictly out of boredom while i wait for my friends to get out to class so we can go clubbin'.

 

That is all, smart-ass.

[Dipre]

That was a long-ass post, but i forgot two things:

 

In those 19 games, he collected 51 TB's in 77 AB's for a .662 SLG%.

 

In 25 games in Bal, Toronto and Tampa, he collected 65 TB's in 100 AB's for a .650 SLG%.

 

Why do i bring this up? Because you specifically said that the "big boost" in OPS came from the AL West, which is simply not true, seeing as the impact from the two righty-friendly and the neutral stadium were just as big on his OPS jump than the smaller-sample sized (and fluked by his outbreak in Oakland) stay in the AL West.

 

Also, notice how horrible he was at Yankee Stadium and Target? Those are both lefty-friendly and righty-neutralizing places.

 

You want more statistical data, or is another victory claim in the making?

 

2) GoBruins2011 agrees with you, even though he probably has no idea what is being said.

[italstallianion]

I think that Palodios might need some lotion after that one.