The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Spudboy]

How about starting pitching depth?

 

Currently, the Sox have Wake and Doubront. If Doubront is traded, who replaces him?

[ORS]

We'll have to see what they sign for. I think Crawford will get a much bigger contract.

Do you think what they sign for justifies your opinion of who is more talented?

[Dipre]

For one, I don't see SD moving Gonzalez and Bell before the deadline. They finished 2nd in their division and are improving. Maybe they take a step forward, maybe they take a step back, but if I was forced to bet, I'd say they will see where they are come June before making a decision.

 

Then, that's a lot of talent to give up just to get those guys one year earlier. I agree, Kelly is kind of blocked, and Rizzo would be if they acquired him as a FA, but Kalish looks like a guy you can consider a contributor to the 2011 and future squads. I mean, if you get Gonzo a year early it's to extend him right, but then you lose Drew and Cameron, and you only have Ellsbury and Werth in the OF moving forward. With an expensive IF (Gonzo at big money, Youk and Pedroia hitting the back end of their deals), a very expensive starting rotation, Papelbon hitting free agency, you are going to need someone contributing at the league minimum. Take away Kalish and you are left back on the market and over budget.

 

Don't see it happening.

 

That's why i made the disclaimer. It's more of a "what i would like to happen" kinda thing.

 

Now you all bring up a good point about keeping the prospects and the need for inexpensive talent, so what about Adam Dunn on a three-year deal to play 1B the first year then DH the other two?

 

Werth- 17 Mill.

 

Dunn- 12 mill.

 

'Tek- 4 Mill

 

Three relievers at 9 mill combined.

 

Bring back Bill Hall or a Bill Hall- type for 4 mill.

 

46 million, get to keep all of your prospects and field the following lineup for 2011 and 2012 (provided they sign A-Gon)

 

2011:

 

1) Ellsbury

2) Pedroia

3)Youkilis

4)Dunn

5)Werth

6)Ortiz

7)'Tek/Salty

8)Drew

9)Scutaro/Lowrie

 

2012:

 

1) Ellsbury

2)Pedroia

3)Youkilis

4)Gonzales

5)Werth

6)Dunn

7)Salty

8)Kalish

9)Iglesias/Lowrie.

 

Both seem like pretty convincing lineups to me. Specially since thinking about it for a second, the best FA in terms of offense is actually Dunn, not either Crawford or Werth, at least in my opinion, given his skillset (Extreme power + OBP).

[ORS]

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Dunn at 1B next year and then at DH in subsequent years to replace Ortiz.

[Dipre]

The more I think about it' date=' the more I like the idea of Dunn at 1B next year and then at DH in subsequent years to replace Ortiz.[/quote']

 

His .902 career OPS and 133 career OPS + would look good in any lineup. Not to mention the fact that while nothing special defensively, he's actually more than decent at 1B and offers the versatility of being able to play LF at Fenway and RF in smaller stadiums if necessary.

 

Yes, he will strike out a lot, but he will also hit tape-measure HR's and get on base consistently, he's like Jason Bay, but better, and Left-handed.

[Palodios]

I would be very interested in adding Dunn, but for some reason, I can't shake the feeling that he'll get a much better contract this time around. A while back he was heavily rumored to be going to the Yankees, but I have no idea where they'd put him.

 

He's averaged 150 games per season his whole career, would benefit from hitting in a strong lineup, can hit both sides pretty well, and is the perfect piece to play 1B and slide into DH after this team moves on from Ortiz.

 

As far as Varitek, he's probably gone. They didn't offer him arbitration (3 million + 20%= only 3.6 million) and he's been fighting injuries for a longgg time.

 

Werth+Dunn+Olivo would be a very strong offseason for the Sox I think.

[ORS]

Werth+Dunn+Olivo would be a very strong offseason for the Sox I think.

+ fix the bullpen.

[Palodios]

Haha, yeah, I figured that was a given.

[Dipre]

Dunn, Werth, Olivo, Putz, Feliciano, Balfour.

 

Get it done!

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Dunn, Werth, Olivo, Putz, Feliciano, Balfour.

 

Get it done!

 

This would make me very happy.

[BSN07]

I like the idea of Dunn at 1B in 2011. The Sox have the $ and the flexibility to offer him a very nice multi year deal. That is if he is willing to move to DH in 2012, which is something he seems to be fighting tooth and nail. But he might change his tune is there are only 2-3 year offers and the Sox drop V-Marts 4/52M offer in his lap.

[BSN07]

The Red Sox have shown interest in Matt Guerrier, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The reliever is a free agent for the first time this winter, after earning $3.15MM in 2010, his final year of arbitration eligibility.

 

Won't cost a pick to sign. Could be a match. I only have read a little about him. Anyone have opinions on him?

 

He seems to be a solid reliable arm. Not a flame thrower type. But could add a lot of value and eat a good number of inning for the Pen.

[example1]

It is easy to jump on the Dunn bandwagon. He's a good power hitter, probably going to be a DH eventually, and is as consistent as they come.

 

Yet, for some reason, the Red Sox don't seem interested in him. That was the case before he signed in DC and I haven't heard anything about them going after him now. The only reason I can think of is that his estimated value isn't what it appears to be to the rest of us. Fangraphs puts his value between $8m-$15m most seasons. That's not very much, given Fangraphs' inflated value for some other players with comparable offensive production. They see him as a DH or that he should be a DH because his defense is a HUGE negative (i.e., whenever he's on the field he actively makes the team worse). That's got to play into it somehow.

 

That said, I would be more than comfortable with the plan that Dipre laid out with Dunn at 1B this year and at DH after. I just don't think it will happen.

[soxfan74]

Don't have a problem with the Dunn idea at first. Doubt it happens though. My first choice would be a trade for Upton. That is also highly unlikely, but not impossible. Most likely case. We sign Werth and bring back Beltre. If not Beltre than possibly Derek Lee for a couple years. Would also Like the Agon trade. If that trade doesn't happen this year it won't happen at all. By now the Sox and Padres know what it will take to make a deal. Finally lets get this bullpen fixed Theo!

[Palodios]

Yet' date=' for some reason, the Red Sox don't seem interested in him.... They see him as a DH or that he [i']should[/i] be a DH because his defense is a HUGE negative (i.e., whenever he

 

This is what concerns me. It seems like they're not looking past Ortiz, and it definitely seems like they're not overly worried about solidifying a set of big 3/4 bats. They're so worried about ticket prices, but having a monstrous 3/4 again is the best way to keep the stadium filled. Dunn/Ortiz in 2011, and Dunn/Gonzalez in 2012 would be HUGE on this team, especially with the kind of support they'll get from the rest of the offense. They don't realize it, but having a balanced offense isn't going to be anywhere as popular as having a potent middle-order. If they picked up Dunn... they can have both, and everyone is happy.

 

They got lucky in 2010 with Beltre/Ortiz, and everyone knows it.

[a700hitter]

Daily Appeal to the FO:

 

Get Carl Crawford. Get somebody.

[Dipre]

They got lucky in 2010 with Beltre/Ortiz, and everyone knows it.

 

I don't buy it.

 

Ortiz finished '09 strong and had given all necessary indications that he would be productive again in 2010. As for Beltre, i tooted his horn all season long, because from his statistics in Seattle and the fact that he was a FA-to be a monster season was expected by anyone who'd checked his past history of performance. With both players, the only question was health.

[Palodios]

I don't buy it.

 

Come on, I remember all the things you said about them... but mvp contenders? I don't recall you being that optimistic. They performed well above and beyond what could have been expected of them. This in no way diminishes them as players, but at that point in the career for them to hit as well as they did, and being completely healthy while losing half the lineup?

[Dipre]

They got lucky in 2010 with Beltre/Ortiz, and everyone knows it.

 

I don't buy it.

 

Ortiz finished '09 strong and had given all necessary indications that he would be productive again in 2010. As for Beltre, i tooted his horn all season long, because from his statistics in Seattle and the fact that he was a FA-to be a monster season was expected by anyone who'd checked his past history of performance. With both players, the only question was health.

[ORS]

They got lucky in 2010 with Beltre/Ortiz, and everyone knows it.

Speak for yourself. The more likely scenario is that they got unlucky with Ortiz having such a rough start to last year, who has been excellent for 8 out the last 10 months he played.

 

Beltre's resurgence in Fenway was predictable like Lowell's was when he came from Florida, and many here who looked at the hit charts were calling for it to happen.

 

Don't pin your beliefs on the rest of us.

[Dipre]

Speak for yourself. The more likely scenario is that they got unlucky with Ortiz having such a rough start to last year, who has been excellent for 8 out the last 10 months he played.

 

Beltre's resurgence in Fenway was predictable like Lowell's was when he came from Florida, and many here who looked at the hit charts were calling for it to happen.

 

Don't pin your beliefs on the rest of us.

 

You mean looking at the statistics of a player and using it as reference to predict future performance as well as using a comparison between the park said player used to play at and the stadium he would play in the upcoming season and their impact on hitters like him is better than watching the guy a couple times and using "40+ years of watching baseball" (or something of the sort) to come up with an opinion?

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

 

(Not directed at anyone in particular by the way).

[Palodios]

There is a difference between expecting a resurgence and expecting players to be #1 or 2 at their position. If you take away Beltre's 2004, there is no evidence to support he'd ever hit as well as he did this year.

 

Beltre's past history of performance said he was a career .270 hitter with an .770 OPS over 12 years, coming off a notable injury. His best seasons outside of 2004 were .835 and .804, and that includes several years outside of Seattle. He has been healthy his entire career, so that cannot be attributed to his performance, and he came off a season of career lows with his first major injury in years.

 

The 1.017 seemed very clearly to be a fluke, or steroid related. Yes, moving out of seattle could have been worth .020-.030 points to average, and possibly a .050 boost to OPS. But getting MVP votes for the first time in 6 years?

[ORS]

There is a difference between expecting a resurgence and expecting players to be #1 or 2 at their position. If you take away Beltre's 2004, there is no evidence to support he'd ever hit as well as he did this year.

 

Beltre's past history of performance said he was a career .270 hitter with an .770 OPS over 12 years, coming off a notable injury. His best seasons outside of 2004 were .835 and .804, and that includes several years outside of Seattle. He has been healthy his entire career, so that cannot be attributed to his performance, and he came off a season of career lows with his first major injury in years.

 

The 1.017 seemed very clearly to be a fluke, or steroid related. Yes, moving out of seattle could have been worth .020-.030 points to average, and possibly a .050 boost to OPS. But getting MVP votes for the first time in 6 years?

Where do you get these numbers from? Assuming the player stays roughly the same (ie same IsoP and IsoD), a .025 increase in BA will yield exactly a .050 increase in OPS (+ .025 to OBP, + .025 to SLG), so that's the minimum improvement in OPS if there is no change in the Iso numbers. But, moving to Fenway, the #1 doubles park in baseball, and one of the best HR parks for RHH, you would expect an increase, a big one, in the IsoP, pushing the boost in OPS well north of .050.

 

I certainly didn't expect MVP level performance from him, but I don't expect that from anyone except for the guys who get votes annually. That said, I was in no way surprised given the type of hitter he is and the park he moved to.

[Palodios]

I'm no expert in advanced stats, and I have no problem admitting that--definitely pulled those numbers out of my ass. But over the last 4 years, Beltre has hit no better than .862 during away games for any season. Last season he hit .953 in away games. He is a career .820 hitter at Fenway(despite hitting .880 there this year). I sort of gauged him based on those numbers.

 

This isn't just about park factors, because park factors do not back him up to hit that well. They back him up to hit .850, at best.

 

Maybe my overall point was lost-- I just meant that they really need to work on the 3/4 slots, and their two biggest bats ended up being a bit better than could have been predicted.

[ORS]

I'm no expert in advanced stats, and I have no problem admitting that--definitely pulled those numbers out of my ass. But over the last 4 years, Beltre has hit no better than .862 during away games for any season. Last season he hit .953 in away games. He is a career .820 hitter at Fenway(despite hitting .880 there this year). I sort of gauged him based on those numbers.

 

This isn't just about park factors, because park factors do not back him up to hit that well. They back him up to hit .850, at best.

 

Maybe my overall point was lost-- I just meant that they really need to work on the 3/4 slots, and their two biggest bats ended up being a bit better than could have been predicted.

You just admitted to pulling stuff from your ass, then you dig right in and pull out another bouquet? Heed your own advice.

 

Beltre's numbers at Fenway prior to last season were compiled at a rate of 3 to 6 games a year. There was no continuity, and they were composed of 67 plate appearances. Do you have any confidence that these types of numbers would be a representative sample size?

[a700hitter]

Are those of you who are insisting that the Red Sox were not lucky to benefit from Beltre's 2010 performance in favor of resigning him? Certainly, the continuation of his 2010 performance would be well worth the contract he is being offered.

[Palodios]

You just admitted to pulling stuff from your ass, then you dig right in and pull out another bouquet? Heed your own advice.

 

Beltre's numbers at Fenway prior to last season were compiled at a rate of 3 to 6 games a year. There was no continuity, and they were composed of 67 plate appearances. Do you have any confidence that these types of numbers would be a representative sample size?

 

Are you guys just ignoring the numbers I put in front of your face, or do you truly believe them to be inaccurate? Here are his Away splits from the previous years

 

2010-- .953

2009-- .717

2008-- .862

2007-- .858

2006-- .806

2005-- .736

 

Are these not clear?

[a700hitter]

....and using "40+ years of watching baseball" (or something of the sort) to come up with an opinion?

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

 

(Not directed at anyone in particular by the way).

Really? I wonder how many people on this forum have 40+ years of watching baseball? If you are going to direct your critical comments to "no one in particular", maybe you should make those comments more general.

 

Speaking for myself as one of the very few 40+ year fans, I was fully in favor of acquiring Beltre. In fact I had agreed with your pre-season stat projections and I posted that I thought he had the chance to do better. I'd research the posts to show you, but apparently researching posts is no longer a capability on this forum. When you criticize, you should not revise history or misrepresent the opinions of no one in particular. Even though I have said "you" in the post several times, it is not directed at anyone in particular.

[Dipre]

Really? I wonder how many people on this forum have 40+ years of watching baseball? If you are going to direct your critical comments to "no one in particular", maybe you should make those comments more general.

 

Speaking for myself as one of the very few 40+ year fans, I was fully in favor of acquiring Beltre. In fact I had agreed with your pre-season stat projections and I posted that I thought he had the chance to do better. I'd research the posts to show you, but apparently researching posts is no longer a capability on this forum. When you criticize, you should not revise history or misrepresent the opinions of no one in particular. Even though I have said "you" in the post several times, it is not directed at anyone in particular.

 

You're not the one who proclaims his "40+ years of fandom" as explanation for most of his opinions. It's not about you, so stop making assumptions.

[ORS]

Are you guys just ignoring the numbers I put in front of your face' date=' or do you truly believe them to be inaccurate? Here are his [b']Away[/b] splits from the previous years

 

2010-- .953

2009-- .717

2008-- .862

2007-- .858

2006-- .806

2005-- .736

 

Are these not clear?

I admit, and have never denied it, he had a good year. I am denying that they got "lucky" that he had a good year, which was your original point. They put a good player in a good situation and benefitted from it. That's not lucky.