Casey Kelly shut down for the season

[jacksonianmarch]

He has a strained lat muscle. He's expected to throw in the fall league. Stats for the yr...

 

3-5 95IP 118H 56ER 81K 35BB 1.61WHIP 7.7K/9IP

 

They rushed him a bit especially as a 20 yr old. He struggled this yr, especially in May and July where his ERA was over 6.00. He has thrown exactly the same amount of innings he threw last season, which is why the fall league is so important in building up his strength. Chances are, he repeats AA next yr and has most likely fallen from the top spot in the sox prospect rankings. I'd have Kalish up at #1 now.

[Yaz Sideburn]

He has a strained lat muscle. He's expected to throw in the fall league. Stats for the yr...

 

3-5 95IP 118H 56ER 81K 35BB 1.61WHIP 7.7K/9IP

 

They rushed him a bit especially as a 20 yr old. He struggled this yr, especially in May and July where his ERA was over 6.00. He has thrown exactly the same amount of innings he threw last season, which is why the fall league is so important in building up his strength. Chances are, he repeats AA next yr and has most likely fallen from the top spot in the sox prospect rankings. I'd have Kalish up at #1 now.

 

not a big deal. i doubt he was going to get much more out of pitching at aa this year anyways, he's so young for that league

[example1]

He has a strained lat muscle. He's expected to throw in the fall league. Stats for the yr...

 

3-5 95IP 118H 56ER 81K 35BB 1.61WHIP 7.7K/9IP

 

They rushed him a bit especially as a 20 yr old. He struggled this yr, especially in May and July where his ERA was over 6.00. He has thrown exactly the same amount of innings he threw last season, which is why the fall league is so important in building up his strength. Chances are, he repeats AA next yr and has most likely fallen from the top spot in the sox prospect rankings. I'd have Kalish up at #1 now.

 

I don't think I would say they rushed him a bit, or that he's fallen from the top spot. I think they rushed him to the level of competition that was a challenge to him. They probably also had him working on very specific approaches and told him not to worry about results. The goal was for him to get comfortable and to develop the arsenal that they want him to have moving forward.

 

As for the top spot, if anything he wouldn't be in the top spot because of Kalish's growth, not his own faults. It isn't his fault that he was a 20 year old playing at AA. He was their #1 pitcher at that level too, ahead of college guys like Fife, Weiland and Wilson. I don't think many people are too worried about Kelly at this point.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the only thing this yr shows is that is stuff isnt THAT blow away amazing. I think his polish is his biggest asset. His control was good as evidenced by a pretty good BB rate, but he also got hit at a pretty high rate. I stick with my assessment of this kid, that he makes the bigs, but isnt an ace type pitcher. Which is why I find it a little strange that the sox are considering him completely untouchable.

[example1]

Which is why I find it a little strange that the sox are considering him completely untouchable.

 

They know him better than you do and have a pretty good track record with these things.

[Yaz Sideburn]

I think the only thing this yr shows is that is stuff isnt THAT blow away amazing. I think his polish is his biggest asset. His control was good as evidenced by a pretty good BB rate' date=' but he also got hit at a pretty high rate. I stick with my assessment of this kid, that he makes the bigs, but isnt an ace type pitcher. Which is why I find it a little strange that the sox are considering him completely untouchable.[/quote']

 

i agree with you, i don't think he has the stuff to be a dominant pitcher. i never thought he was the system's best prospect

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he is safely, and I repeat safely a #3 starter in the bigs. There is something to be said about a 20 yr old kid in AA projecting to be a truly reliable pitcher in the big leagues. But is he on the stuff scale as Buchholz or Lester? Absolutely not. Buchholz and Lester can top out at 98mph and sit at 95mph, Kelly maybe tops out at 95, but sits mostly 91-92. And both Buch and Lester have lights out breaking balls, while Kelly makes his hay off a change. I honestly think Kelly's being protected by the sox to eventually use him as the key chip in a deal to bring in a major power talent. By making him untouchable, you kinda bump up his stock a bit

[jacksonianmarch]

And I dont know how you look at Kelly's yr as anything but a negative. He didnt "hold his own" vs AA. He was miserable at AA. And he didnt get his innings up, so he has to play fall ball. And he never showed the improvements month to month that you look for with a player adjusting to a league. The only thing he gained this yr is experience, which is something he was going to gain regardless.

[Yaz Sideburn]

the thing about kelly though, is that this is the first year of his career which he's devoted to just pitching. he has the potential to fill out his wiry frame quite a bit and add 3-4 mph on his fastball and it's pretty incredible how fast he's developed his curve and his change. if he bulks up and adds a variation on his fastball, he could be a dominant starter and at age 20 he's got plenty of time to do it

[Yaz Sideburn]

And I dont know how you look at Kelly's yr as anything but a negative. He didnt "hold his own" vs AA. He was miserable at AA. And he didnt get his innings up' date=' so he has to play fall ball. And he never showed the improvements month to month that you look for with a player adjusting to a league. The only thing he gained this yr is experience, which is something he was going to gain regardless.[/quote']

 

it's a major positive for a 20 year old to have a full year of experience facing advanced batters

[jacksonianmarch]

the thing about kelly though' date=' is that this is the first year of his career which he's devoted to just pitching. he has the potential to fill out his wiry frame quite a bit and add 3-4 mph on his fastball and it's pretty incredible how fast he's developed his curve and his change. if he bulks up and adds a variation on his fastball, he could be a dominant starter and at age 20 he's got plenty of time to do it[/quote']

 

These kids typically add some zip to their fastball around their age 20-22 seasons. This yr, he hasnt, maybe he will next yr.

[Yaz Sideburn]

These kids typically add some zip to their fastball around their age 20-22 seasons. This yr' date=' he hasnt, maybe he will next yr.[/quote']

 

he's still got plenty of time. and if he does, he'll already have a year or two of experience under his belt facing advanced hitters

[Spudboy]

the thing about kelly though' date=' is that this is the first year of his career which he's devoted to just pitching. he has the potential to fill out his wiry frame quite a bit and add 3-4 mph on his fastball and it's pretty incredible how fast he's developed his curve and his change. if he bulks up and adds a variation on his fastball, he could be a dominant starter and at age 20 he's got plenty of time to do it[/quote']

 

This.

 

I've been watching his results all season. And I was wondering why he did not start the season in high A. Well, he looked very good in ST and the Sox (the people that see everything he does and know more of what is needed for him at this point) decided that he was ready to compete at AA.

 

Unless he has sustained a significant injury (elbow, shoulder), I see no reason why he would be seen as anything less than the top pitching prospect in the system. For now.

[Yaz Sideburn]

This.

 

I've been watching his results all season. And I was wondering why he did not start the season in high A. Well, he looked very good in ST and the Sox (the people that see everything he does and know more of what is needed for him at this point) decided that he was ready to compete at AA.

 

Unless he has sustained a significant injury (elbow, shoulder), I see no reason why he would be seen as anything less than the top pitching prospect in the system. For now.

 

if the sox placed him in aa for no good reason and he was lost there i would say it was a lost year but i don't think he had anything left to gain by being in single a. he completely dominated the hitters there, his k/bb in advanced single a was 5

 

i trust the sox judgement when it comes to pitching prospects. a lot of people didn't understand why they wouldn't trade lester or buchholz either and it seemed to work out for them. the last pitching prospect that they deemed untouchable who didn't work out was craig hansen

[Yaz Sideburn]

this is a good article that puts things into perspective. remember, kelly is 7 days away from being the youngest starter in the eastern league and at his age lester was struggling in single a

 

With some players, minor-league numbers mean something. With others, they don’t. Kelly is a case where the numbers tell a partial story, but absolutely don’t speak to how well he’s pitching and his continued development. In the eyes of the organization, Kelly may be even more highly regarded than he was before the season began.

 

Kelly is showing better stuff, higher velocity and a greater understanding of the game than he did a year ago. He is mastering opponents in nearly every outing, until one mistake causes a situation to unravel. The organization is pleased with his progress, said director of player development Mike Hazen.

 

and his velocity is already improving

 

Kelly’s fastball velocity is consistently up this year. Where last year his fastball was at 90-91 mph and topped out at 92, this season he’s at 93 mph in most starts and touching 94. That’s giving this control pitcher a more powerful dimension.

 

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/sp_bb_kelly_09_07-09-10_7NJ56E4_v3.14c9e8e.html

[Spudboy]

if the sox placed him in aa for no good reason and he was lost there i would say it was a lost year but i don't think he had anything left to gain by being in single a. he completely dominated the hitters there, his k/bb in advanced single a was 5

 

i trust the sox judgement when it comes to pitching prospects. a lot of people didn't understand why they wouldn't trade lester or buchholz either and it seemed to work out for them. the last pitching prospect that they deemed untouchable who didn't work out was craig hansen

 

We're on the same wavelength here. I agree with everything you've said.

 

I just thought that it would have been OK to start him in high A given his limited experience.

 

Pitch a bunch of innings and then go to Portland. But I have no problem with the Sox starting him there. They know far more than I about theses things.

 

Further, I think he had a lot of trouble with men on base and having to pitch from the stretch. Something that he probably did not do much of in high school.

[Will617]

I believe that part of the reason the Red Sox started him in AA perhaps earlier than he was ready for was that they wanted to challenge their prospects more. They were concerned about how Buchholz had never faced any real adversity until he got to the MLB level, and then had to go back down to AAA to deal with it. It seems like the past few years the Sox have been pushing their prospects to more advanced levels before they've been fully prepared.

[example1]

I think he is safely' date=' and I repeat safely a #3 starter in the bigs. There is something to be said about a 20 yr old kid in AA projecting to be a truly reliable pitcher in the big leagues. But is he on the stuff scale as Buchholz or Lester? Absolutely not. Buchholz and Lester can top out at 98mph and sit at 95mph, Kelly maybe tops out at 95, but sits mostly 91-92. [/quote']

 

By #3 do you mean a pitcher like John Lackey? Someone like Clay Buchholz? Andy Pettitte? Competitive AL #3 or random NL #3? At the age of 20 NOBODY was saying that Buchholz and Lester were going to be among the game's elite power pitchers. You can go back and look at what people here were saying. Both of them have seen an increase in velocity over the past few years putting them in a pretty elite level, but before that they were "merely" pitchers who projected well and had good stuff.

 

Kelly has the same opportunity to build up his arm, and reports have him sitting 92-94. As you know that is a pretty damn good FB, given that he can throw it consistently.

 

And both Buch and Lester have lights out breaking balls, while Kelly makes his hay off a change.

 

Buchholz's best pitch was his changeup too. His curveball was impressive early, but he's really cut down on how much he uses it because it wasn't as effective. Kelly's curveball is no slouch and his FB may be the best in the system in terms of mechanics, command and velocity.

 

What is it that Jon Lester does that is SO impressive? His numbers are great, but why?

 

The answer is that he executes. He his his spots, mixes his pitches and throws harder than most. The same is true for Clay Buchholz. They have great control and command of their pitches, which are remarkably consistent in their movement. They have developed a combination of about 5 or 6 pitch/location combinations that work for them given their ability to also throw 94 consistently.

 

I'm willing to bet that Kelly's arm isn't going to be worse than Lester's and he supposedly has great command.

 

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2010/07/12/all-star-futures-notebook-casey-kellys-year-de

 

“Kelly’s fastball velocity is consistently up this year. Where last year his fastball was at 90-91 mph and topped out at 92, this season he’s at 93 mph in most starts and touching 94. That’s giving this control pitcher a more powerful dimension...

 

The velocity’s been up, the velocity of the breaking ball’s been up, the power to the breaking ball has been better. Now I think it’s a matter of putting it all together. Bringing those three pitches to every outing and having consistency to his strike-throwing,” Hazen said.

 

In that growth, Kelly mirrors fellow Sox pitcher Jon Lester, to some degree, as manager Terry Francona pointed out during spring training. Francona and pitching coach John Farrell were standing behind second base during one of Kelly’s throwing sessions, chatting about the velocity boost that Lester experienced as he grew into his large frame.

 

The 6-foot-3 Kelly, Francona said, should experience the same thing.

 

“It will be fun to show up two years from now and imagine what this kid will be,” the Sox’ manager said.