Lester's K spike.

[Dipre]

Fluke? or new level of awesomeness?

 

He had 152 all of last year, currently has 131 in THE MIDDLE OF JULY, it's been discussed to some degree, but i, for one, would like to come up with an explanation for it.

[YanksHater213]

Throwing the ball harder. He's hitting 97 semi-regularly now.

[Dipre]

Throwing the ball harder. He's hitting 97 semi-regularly now.

 

But he was hitting 96 with pretty good frequency last year, could that really be the reason for such a dramatic increase?

[YanksHater213]

His velocity has been improving since last year, and I see it as no coincidence that since the beginning of 2008, he has gradually been striking out more and more guys.

 

In 07, I think he'd have to really reach back to hit even 95, but now he's hitting 97 with frequency.

[Dojji]

But he was hitting 96 with pretty good frequency last year' date=' could that really be the reason for such a dramatic increase?[/quote']

 

No he wasn't, last year he was sitting more around 93, and topping out at 96 this year he's hitting 95 pretty much every time out.

 

I think he's just maturing on the mound and starting to really turn talent into results. Good for him.

[Dipre]

No he wasn't, last year he was sitting more around 93, and topping out at 96 this year he's hitting 95 pretty much every time out.

 

I think he's just maturing on the mound and starting to really turn talent into results. Good for him.

 

Blasphemy.

 

Lester was hitting 96 regularly after the ASB last year.

[Dojji]

Got the Pitchfx numbers to back that up DrSoxfan/

[Dipre]

Got the Pitchfx numbers to back that up DrSoxfan/

 

I've got the Gameday numbers, which are even better.

 

If you want, go to mlb.com and look at 3 or 4 starts from Lester, specially the ones against the Yankees.

 

The daytime one @ Yankee stadium comes to mind.

 

In said game, Lester reached 94-95-96 over 35 times in a 112 pitch performance.

 

Comparing it to last night (in which Gameday confirmed the obvious, his peak velocity of 97 was attained 5 times, not semi-regularly as was stated before)

 

He did maintain the 95-96 velocity much more, hovering around said speeds over 40+ times, indicating an ability to maintain peak velocity, not an increase in velocity per se.

 

Why call me out on the numbers if you haven't checked them yourself?

 

That's just dumb.

[Dojji]

I wasn't calling you out, Dipre, I was asking if you had some evidence.

[Dipre]

I wasn't calling you out' date=' Dipre, I was asking if you had some evidence.[/quote']

 

Oh.

 

I apologize then.

 

I thought you were calling me out indeed.

 

But, as i stated, he pretty much sat 94-95 last year as well, while touching 96 when reaching back.

 

So there must be something else fueling his strikeout binge.

 

Pitch selection perhaps?

[jacksonianmarch]

He's maturing. He's getting stronger as he gets older and is now capable of sitting at a velocity he used to top out at. He's hitting his spots with much more frequency and is learning the ins and outs of how to set up hitters rather than just trying to locate to the corners every pitch. I think he is finding out that a few inches off the corners with 2 strikes is getting him a lot of swings and misses, where before he was either missing and walking a lot of guys, or leaving it too far in and getting hit.

[Dojji]

I'd be inclined to simply credit increased maturity and consistency that allows him to harness his stuff better.

[diony]

He's slightly throwing more changeups and curveballs.

[BoSox21]

better secondary stuff to complement the fastball

[example1]

1. He has a top-tier FB (12th in MLB ) (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2009&month=0) He has grown, obviously been conditioning, and he seems to have very good stamina.

 

2. His cutter is nasty and he throws it nearly 20% of the time (The only pitchers who come close to throwing that hard and who throw as many cutters are Hallady and Billingsley)

 

3. He is throwing his curveball on two very good plains: one is the "for a strike" curveball (starts at shoulders, crosses over plate with good movement and velocity); second starts out in the zone and ends up down and in to righties. It is a swing and miss pitch and is very effective when combined with his cutter and fastball.

 

 

Fangraphs indicates that his repetoir (FB, Cut, CB, CH) is very similar to Roy Halladay and somewhat like Josh Beckett (no shock there), except that Halladay throws his cutter almost half the time and Beckett throws his pretty rarely.

[YAZMAN]

I'd be inclined to simply credit increased maturity and consistency that allows him to harness his stuff better.

 

Plus physical maturity. He is stronger, so his velocity doesn't fall off much. He's older, so he's now in the 110+ pitch range instead of the 90-100 you look for in the younger arms.

 

Someone did a longevity study on power pitchers a few years back and there was a correlation to innings pitched before age 25 and career length. Letting guys under 25 go too long generally shortens their career, but after 25 the same amount of work has much less of a negative effect.

 

It's probably due to multiple factors such as increased strength, joints which have finished developing and can handle the stress better, honed mechanics, and less overthrowing.

[Dutchy]

I think he's gotten stronger the more removed from chemo he's gotten. You can see it in his added velocity, and you can see it in his innings and pitch counts. He leads the staff in innings pitched, and he's gone over 100 pitches in 15 of his 17 starts. He's been a horse.

 

Statistically, he's been much better this year even though his ERA is so high.

 

2008 - 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.82 BB/9, 6.50 K/9, .299 BABIP, 3.64 FIP

2009 - 3.87 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.76 BB/9, 10.34 K/9, .342 BABIP, 3.21 FIP

 

He also mixes up his pitch selection as good as anyone. Only 55% of his pitches are straight fastballs. He throws both his cutter ~once every 5 pitches and his curve ~once every 5 pitches.

[Looch Ness Monster]

I'd like to say a slight increase in velocity on the 4 seam FB has been a small part of it but he also has added a nice cutter and turned his changeup and curveball into plus pitches and wipeout pitches.

[Dipre]

That curveball has definitely buckled a lot of hitters this year.

[TheKilo]

This started towards the end of the season last year and he pretty much decided instead of pitching to contact that he was just going to strike everyone out.