The 08-09 NBA predictions thread

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I'll do my analysis of the rest of the teams now, because I like the discussion so far in this thread and I want more.

 

 

EAST

 

9. Bulls -- Still a very cluttered backcourt combined with a weak front line. That said, they have way too much talent to place them too far out of contention. Derrick Rose will be a stabilizing force, drafting a true, steady, point guard can rarely hurt you. They need to aim for an offensive big man in next year's draft. Or sign one of a couple of potential free agents.

 

10. Wizards -- Gilbert Arenas was hurt last season and Washington didn't miss a beat. That's not what gets them this low. Center Brendan Haywood had a breakout season in 07-08, and gave the Wizards a solid presence in the paint to draw some attention away from Washington's wing scorers (Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, DeShawn Stevenson, Arenas when healthy). He's out for four months. Talented team that is once again too injury rattled to be a threat. Only this time, they'll miss the playoffs altogether.

 

11. Bucks -- Richard Jefferson is a solid #2 to Michael Redd. Scott Skiles does have a way of coaxing wins out of his teams in his first couple of seasons with them, by preaching toughness and defense. With this team, I just don't see it. They're hoping Ramon Sessions can fill a hole at point guard, but if he isn't ready, Milwaukee is in deep trouble there. Power forward is another position that concerns me. Charlie Villanueva is a nice player, but not the conventional PF that the Bucks need on the block. David Noel's a dunker/energy guy. The bench could also be an issue. Chicago was knee deep in talented players (though no all-stars) when Skiles was hired there. Rough year in Milwaukee.

 

12. Hawks -- Last year was an overachievement, plain and simple. Winning 37 games was overachieving, let alone the fact that it somehow allowed them to slip into the playoffs. This offseason, they lost Josh Childress to a Greek team. He was a solid contributor during his time Atlanta, and his departure now makes the bench, for lack of a better word, terrible. There's also a possibility they could miss Salim Stoudamire's deadly shooting touch more than they think.

 

13. Bobcats -- Early word is that the Bobcats are already complaining about Larry Brown's coaching style and personality. Meaning that this season has the potential to be like the 05-06 Knicks, complaining and lurching their way through the season, only they have far less talent (though are also far less mismatched). Or, Larry Brown could rekindle his coaching magic and have this team in playoff contention. Its not out of the question.

 

14. Nets -- What a mess. If they're lucky, they could unload Vince Carter by midseason to a contending team. If they get unlucky, they're stuck with him and the crying he's bound to do by the time January comes around and the Nets are battling the Knicks for being the laughingstock of the East. Devin Harris I really like, he'll be a great point guard in Brooklyn. The rest of the roster is random mismatched career role players such as Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes, and Eduardo Najera, or young players that have yet to really pan out, and in some cases its doubtful they ever will.

 

15. Knicks -- Isiah is gone, but his mess remains. That is, Zach Randolph, Stephon Marbury, and Eddy Curry all still play for the Knicks. Until New York can find a way to get all three of them out of town, as well as draft some meaningful players, they'll be garbage. D'Antoni is in way over his head here.

 

 

 

WEST

9. Suns -- I've already explained this.

 

10. Clippers -- They probably were screwed by Elton Brand, so you can't really fault the Davis signing, but other than that it's been a series of panic moves that Clipper fans are all too familiar with. New to the fold this time around are Ricky Davis, Marcus Camby, Steve Novak, Brian Skinner, and Jason Hart. The Clippers will lack chemistry all season, and just throwing a team together like they have, without any real plan, is not a good way to try and win basketball games.

 

11. Grizzlies -- I like the talent here, quite a bit. Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol all have terrific careers in front of them. Its only a matter of time before that talent, Gay and Conley in particular due to having some NBA experience already, begins to materialize, and I think we could see some flashes this season. O.J. Mayo is a leading candidate for ROY, and Marc Gasol, despite not having NBA experience, has been playing pro ball for a while. Memphis is pretty much set for the future. Once thing they still have to do midseason, find a contending team that needs depth, offer them Antoine Walker, attach Javaris Crittenton, and hope they bite.

 

12. Timberwolves -- Similar situation to Memphis. Al Jefferson should be an all-star this season, and is a big guy perfectly suited to having a franchise built around him. I think he should be moved to center to accomodate Kevin Love. They have a slew of recent first round picks on their roster, Telfair, Foye, Brewer, and McCants. If some of that talent ever starts to take effect, Minnesota could end up doing better than we all thought.

 

13. Warriors -- Monta Ellis is out half the year, they lost Baron Davis and signed Corey Maggette in his place. Both of the core components of their team are gone, and they'll have to rely on pretty unknown players such as Brandan Wright, Anthony Randolph, and Marco Belinelli to stay afloat. I don't see it happening. Even Don Nelson won't be able to do much with this bunch.

 

14. Nuggets -- They're in line for a big collapse. They're an even worse defensive team than last year, something I thought impossible, they don't have any legitamite post game, and they also don't have a quality, true point guard of any kind. The only thing they do have is three great wing players who are very likely to stir the pot in a big way once the losing starts. George Karl's time is running out, I can't see him making it to the all-star game.

 

15. Thunder -- Seattle's revenge. Nice cast of young players, but Kevin Durant has absolutely no help here. OKC fans got their wish of a pro sports team, but unfortunately it will struggle to scrape 20 wins. Still, the future is bright, and Sam Presti has a ton of draft picks at his disposal, which he can manuever with however he pleases.

[ORS]

All well and good. The move for Shaq will handcuff them a bit, and I don't see a title run in the current roster. But, don't forget, Porter managed the Bucks to the highest scoring offense in the East based on the talent he had on that team. He's an intelligent coach, and his roster is set up to play a certain style of ball, which I'm sure he recognizes. They be playing in April, but not in June.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

All well and good. The move for Shaq will handcuff them a bit' date=' and I don't see a title run in the current roster. But, don't forget, Porter managed the Bucks to the highest scoring offense in the East based on the talent he had on that team. He's an intelligent coach, and his roster is set up to play a certain style of ball, which I'm sure he recognizes. They be playing in April, but not in June.[/quote']

 

That opens up possibly another issue. Shaq, especially lately, isn't the most agreeable of personalities. To effectively play the style I'm assuming you're referring to, Shaq's minutes will have to be cut severely. Then they'll be completely stuck with a major headache.

[msubulldogs21]

I watched the Kings game tonight at Minnesota, a 2 point loss. Spencer Hawes looked solid (12 pts, 14 boards) and 1st round pick Jason Thompson looked GOOD. He had 18 and 10 coming off the bench. If Sacramento could post a winning record this season I'd be pretty happy.

 

By the way, for those of you with Directv, NBA League Pass is free all the way through next Tuesday.

[msubulldogs21]

11. Grizzlies -- I like the talent here' date=' quite a bit. Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol all have terrific careers in front of them. Its only a matter of time before that talent, Gay and Conley in particular due to having some NBA experience already, begins to materialize, and I think we could see some flashes this season. O.J. Mayo is a leading candidate for ROY, and Marc Gasol, despite not having NBA experience, has been playing pro ball for a while. Memphis is pretty much set for the future. Once thing they still have to do midseason, find a contending team that needs depth, offer them Antoine Walker, attach Javaris Crittenton, and hope they bite.[/quote']

 

Antoine Walker's corpse is with Memphis? Wasn't aware of that.

 

The Grizz are basically my 2nd favorite team (after the Kings) with them being just an hour down the road from me. However, I've only been to one of their games before and that was back several years ago when they played at The Pyramid. Wouldn't mind checking out a game at the FedEx Forum. NBA tickets are expensive though. I'd at least like for them to get to be a pretty good team, although it's tough when your GM is named Chris Wallace.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Antoine Walker's corpse is with Memphis? Wasn't aware of that.

 

The Grizz are basically my 2nd favorite team (after the Kings) with them being just an hour down the road from me. However, I've only been to one of their games before and that was back several years ago when they played at The Pyramid. Wouldn't mind checking out a game at the FedEx Forum. NBA tickets are expensive though. I'd at least like for them to get to be a pretty good team, although it's tough when your GM is named Chris Wallace.

Yeah, Antoine went to the Memphis in that Mayo/Love deal on draft night.

 

 

 

Hey, we in Boston had to deal with Chris Wallace, now he's your problem.

[msubulldogs21]

Hey' date=' we in Boston had to deal with Chris Wallace, now he's your problem. [/quote']

 

Well, he's the Grizzlies problem anyway. They aren't really my team or anything, but I do generally pull for them. Now if he was the Kings GM... I'd actually be pissed. Question - is Wallace a prick? A friend of mine said he was listening to him on a radio show the other day and he came off as the biggest prick in the world.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I don't know really, I didn't hear from him that much when he was in Boston. Didn't listen to his interviews or anything.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Wow, mine are absolute bombs so far.

[YanksHater213]

Mine are pretty much spot on with a few exceptions so far, granted it's still 3-5 games into the season.

 

Orlando and Philly just got off to a slow start, they're too good not to be there in the end.

 

Spurs aren't looking too hot, needed 2 OT and a MJ-like game from Tony Parker (55/7/10) to get their first win, I still think they'll grab a 7 or 8.

 

My only bad prediction was the Clippers. Baron and Camby have been banged up, and the team as a whole has started out real slow, but Thornton looks great, and give them some time, it's possible they can grab a low seed.

 

Edit: Oh and I told you Atlanta could play... they've got wins @ Orlando, @ New Orleans, and vs. Philly.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I'm still not completely sold on Atlanta, though I'm definitely backing off the 12th place statement.

 

 

Spurs have looked bad, the Kings have been a disgrace, the Suns are starting off well, Hornets, Bulls, and Mavs look better than advertised... wow I f***ed up one third of the league.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

How'd we do??

 

 

 

 

-I really screwed up the Cleveland and Atlanta predictions, as well as Indy and Sacto (the 8th seeds is usually where I mess up every year, since I have a tendency to go with previous-year losers that look like they've improved).

 

-Told you guys that Phoenix sucks and that New Orleans would take a step back. Y'all laughed at me.

 

-My Denver prediction is void since they got rid of the main problem (Iverson) for the perfect player (Billups) for what they needed. Detroit is also void, since I said at the time that was the worst on-court move they could have possibly made.