The 08-09 NBA predictions thread

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Well since the preseason is pretty much over and SI's sure-to-be-entertaining NBA preview issue is out tomorrow (or today, actually), I thought I would launch our own predictions thread for the upcoming season.

 

 

Here be mine:

 

*note* -- only doing the top 8 for each conference

 

 

EAST

 

1. Celtics -- Defending champs, and no one in the East improved to the point where they can realistically catch us. The C's did lose Posey, but I don't think that's a huge loss at all. A healthy Tony Allen can fill his role no problem. That said, I do think the C's will see a sharp drop in regular season wins this time around, possibly by double digits. Reason being, there isn't the same anticipation and pressure around the team as there was this time last year. Guys are more inclined to relax, and the core guys have nothing to prove. I still say we're the favorite to win the East though.

 

2. Magic -- I think they have to be the clear cut 2nd best team in the East right now. 4/5 of their starting five is just outstanding (Shard, Howard, Nelson, Turkoglu), and they picked up two guys in the offseason to help at shooting guard, which was their weakest position last year. Howard and Nelson are only going to improve, and Shard should fit in better his second year in Orlando.

 

3. Pistons -- Billups and Hamilton are starting to get up there in age, but the Pistons have Rodney Stuckey backing them up, who figures to have a breakout season. Detroit has a solid enough frontcourt to keep them going strong. I see a dip in wins for them this season, but there's no reason to think they won't be around in mid to late May.

 

4. Heat -- This is my sleeper team, obviously. Assuming Wade comes back and plays at least 75 healthy games, Miami has a good enough cast around him to bounce right back into the playoffs. I think it will happen. Another thing, this team was no where as bad as their final record indicated. Wade was hurt, Shaq was old, they got off to a really bad start out of the gate, and more or less quit after that, fielding D-league lineups by March. Wade has a quality supporting cast, with Shawn Marion, Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, and Daequan Cook, to name a few. Don't forget Shaun Livingston, who's coming off a horrific knee injury that cost him all of last season. If he can tap into his potential and give Miami a solid point guard presence, that would be a huge boost.

 

5. 76ers -- Signing Brand was a low-risk, high reward move for a Sixers group already on the rise. This team figures to have one of the best starting fives in the league (Miller, Iguodala, Young, Brand, Dalembert), and spent much of the offseason getting cheap help for their bench, such as Donyell Marshall, Theo Ratliff, Kareem Rush, etc. to help Willie Green and Louis Williams. The Sixers have all the tools to do well their first year together. A championship may be a stretch though, at this point, as I doubt they can really compete with Boston, Detroit, or Orlando... yet.

 

6. Cavaliers -- The Mo Williams trade was one of the most pointless trades they could have made. Cleveland already had two solid point guards that could drain it from 3, why did they need a third (who isn't much better than the other two)? Cleveland is one year removed from an Eastern Conference title, but they only had to beat one team to get there. This team is just like all the other Cavs teams in the past 4 years; good, but not nearly good enough. LeBron is still lacking in the help department. Time's getting short, Cleveland.

 

7. Raptors -- Toronto acquiring Jermaine O'Neal was also a lateral (and pointless) move, at best. The Raptors had one of the very best PG tandems in the NBA, what's the sense in abandoning that to take on an injury prone forward/center who does pretty much the same things Bosh does? The Raptors will stagnate this season, as opposed to improving.

 

8. Pacers -- For those who payed attention to the Pacers last season, there were two major issues with last year's team. First, Jermaine O'Neal could not get healthy, was counter-productive to the team when he was healthy, and Indiana was hell-bent on getting rid of him. Second, the remaining players on the floor played very good basketball, surprising even, and what killed them was the point guard position; Tinsley is a waste of space, and Travis Diener is not a starting point guard. They settled both problems this summer by trading O'Neal to Toronto for T.J. Ford and Roy Hibbert. Ford is a speedy, slashing guard who really helps Jim O'Brien's up-tempo style, and he'll create more shots from distance for guys like Dunleavy and Murphy. Considering how Indiana played last year without any point guard to speak of, they're in great position to return to the playoffs after a two year absence.

 

 

 

WEST

1. Lakers -- At least for the regular season, this is not debatable. The Lakers will run away with the regular season wins crown. Bynum is returning, and to help ease what would have been a crowded frontcourt, they send Odom to the bench, with Luke Walton being the likely new starter as the SF. That move can only help, as Odom will be better served backing up Pau Gasol as opposed to playing with him. You only play with one basketball. However once they get to the playoffs, there is plenty of stiff competition in both conferences that could take them out.

 

2. Jazz -- This team is constantly overlooked by pretty much everyone, but they have a basketball tandem in Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer that may rival Stockton and Malone. Just look at the success they've been having in two years together, if you don't believe me. There is plenty of depth around the two of them (Kirilenko, Brewer, Okur, Miles, Knight, Millsap) for Utah to be at the top of the standings again, and to be a legitamite Finals threat.

 

3. Rockets -- The newest big three in the NBA came together when the Rockets went for it and acquired Ron Artest. Its a risky move, but I think it will pan out. Houston has arguably the league's premier defensive team with that move, and I consider them as much of a title contender as anyone.

 

4. Spurs -- I've learned my lesson: don't bet against the San Antonio Spurs. Manu Ginobili is out until mid-December with an ankle injury, but the Spurs have depth surrounding Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan. They have three nice looking young players, Salim Stoudamire, Ian Mahinmi, and George Hill, that could handle a decent-sized role this year if need be. The Spurs might see an end to the 55 wins a year streak, but they are still a championship contender. Its also an odd year.

 

5. Hornets -- The Hornets were a surprise team last year, coming out of nowhere to place 2nd in the elite west. One thing I've learned following the NBA, surprise teams like that often come back down (or closer to, at least) to Earth the following season. This team had the same squad, except for Morris Peterson, the season before last, and they were completely absent from the playoffs that year. For this year, New Orleans will take a step back as opposed to another step forward.

 

6. Mavericks -- Rick Carlisle's free flowing offense will probably save this team from plunging into mediocrity. Nowitzki won't be forced into being a post player anymore, he can be the perimeter that he's supposed to be. Jason Kidd should also be revived, as this system/team is a little friendlier toward his style of play. Dallas has plenty of firepower at point guard, with Kidd and Barea, and solid center and power forward combos (Dampier/Diop, Nowitzki/Bass respectively). On the wings right now they are a little thin, but they have two former first-round draft picks in Gerald Green and Antoine Wright, who still have time to turn things around. I think there is way too much talent on this team to miss the playoffs, even if they aren't a real title contender.

 

7. Trail Blazers -- Yes they are young, but there is just too much to love about the talent they have. Brandon Roy's an established stud, Outlaw and Aldridge are very nice players, and we'll be getting our first look at Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Greg Oden (yes, that Greg Oden). All three figure to contribute heavily in the near future, if not this year. Enough teams in the West sunk out of the picture this offseason for Portland to slip comfortably into the playoffs.

 

8. Kings -- No one noticed, but the Kings were closing in 40 wins last season, for a team that was projected to win no more than 30. For the time that Ron Artest was playing for the Kings, they actually played better when he wasn't in the lineup. They traded him to Houston this summer, and got a solid prospect in Donte Greene (they also re-acquired Bobby Jackson to help at guard). There is no doubt Sacramento is in rebuilding mode, but led by Kevin Martin, who can contend for the scoring title this year, the Kings are a surprise team perfectly capable of making the playoffs and being heard from.

 

 

 

 

 

Discuss. And of course anyone is more than welcome to post their own ideas.

[Dojji]

Celtics are still the class of the East, which isn't as weak a conference as it used to be. Eastern Conference still more topheavy than the West but by the time you hit the playoffs most of the bad teams are culled and you get about equal quality competition.

 

I'd say the strength of the team is a combination of a slight edge by the Big 3 and a huge edge by the second unit. I love the young guys and their ability to stand tall on any given night.

 

I also think that in terms if character, you can count on KG to keep the team intense. I don't think that goes away just because his life ambition is fulfilled. A guy like that doesn't change his spots just because he's won. He'll still be the most passionate, energetic player on this or any other floor, and if anything the Celtics are more talented this year and a LOT more confident than last so Garnett's gotta be smelling ring #2 and banner #18.

 

I don't see an Eastern contender that I don't think the Celtics should beat on any floor. Boston's bench is deep and talented, their big 3 should have a few more years in them. I've really liked what I've seen fromPruitt as well which answers the point-guard "weakness" so I see no problem saying Celtics all the way.

[TheKilo]

East:

 

Celtics

Heat

Cavs

Magic

Pistons

Raptors

76ers

Hawks

 

West:

 

Lakers

Hornets

Rockets

Spurs

Jazz

Trailblazers

Mavs

Nuggets

[ORS]

Nobody likes the Suns this year? Same primary personnel. Same court strategy. Won 55 games last year. Something bad needs to happen to them for them to not make the final 8 from the West, IMO.

[YanksHater213]

The first post is a border line joke, IMO... Kings??? Lets be serious. Hornets at 5???

 

East:

1. Celtics- Same old same old.

2. Cavs- One game away from getting to the Finals, and adding Mo Williams? They'll be here, no doubt with the King.

3. Pistons- They'll drop off a little bit this year, but Stucky and Johnson provide enough youth to keep them energized and from falling further.

4. Magic- No major losses, Nelson is improving, added two solid wings in Pietrus and Lee. Turkoglu, Lewis and Howard is a great trio.

5. 76ers- Wanted to put them higher, but their bench is too poor to do that. They have one of the best and most well rounded starting fives in the league. Brand makes a gigantic difference.

6. Raptors- JO won't make as big of an impact as people think, and they have little to no depth at all. Losing Ford was a killer, unless they see something in Roko Ukic that I don't...

7. Hawks- Last year wasn't a fluke. Bibby will rebound from an injury riddled year for another great season, and Law is a viable option off the bench, but the rest of their reserved were horrendous. I expect Marvin Williams to have a huge year.

8. Heat- Health will bring improvement, but the top is too tough. Plus I can't put faith in a team that plans on starting Mark Blount and one of Chalmers and Banks.

 

Missing out:

Washington: Early season injuries too much to overcome.

Indiana: Rasho Nesterovic??? Come on... they don't have on star player (although I think Granger is set for a big year) and their bench is horrendous.

Chicago: They could make a run for the 8th spot, but I don't see it. They're fairly deep and have a decent amount of talent, but they don't mesh well together at all, and don't have one guy who can take over at the end of games.

 

West:

1. Hornets- Great last year, Paul is getting better, added a great cog on their bench, which was their main weakness.

2. Lakers- Another great year, Bynum is back, but I can see him being a cancer and a detriment to the team

3. Houston- I think TMac finally stays injury free, and if they can get 65+ out of Yao, they'll be up here.

4. Jazz- Good all around team with an elite PG and big man, and a great young bench.

5. Mavs- Antoine Wright will fit well in the starting lineup, and Kidd will look much better after being able to get some time there under his belt.

6. Suns- I think they'll be better than people thing. Dragic has looked good as their back up and that lets Barbosa move over to the 2 which is a more natural position for him. Lopez is ready to come in and play NBA defense.

7. Spurs- I think we see a drastic fall off from them this year. Ginobili starts out on the shelf, and they just don't have the depth they had last year.

8. Clippers- Great starting five, Davis and Camby will make huge impacts.

 

Missing out:

Denver: Their achillies heel is their horrendous defense, and they get rid of their best defender in Camby? They don't have a point guard, and who knows when Melo and Iverson will realize that they need to play both ends.

Portland: They're a year away, they're probably top 5 talent wise, but the youth is going to kill them this year. They'll start out hot but fade again.

adding reasonings for western conference teams later...

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

The first post is a border line joke' date=' IMO... Kings??? Lets be serious. Hornets at 5???[/quote']

 

Yes... Hornets will take a step back this year.

 

2. Cavs- One game away from getting to the Finals, and adding Mo Williams? They'll be here, no doubt with the King.

 

Mo Williams.... so what? They already had two quality point guards on that roster (Gibson, West), why did they need a third? Williams is negligibly better than Gibson, and does the same things he does.

 

 

Basically, the Cavs went out and acquired a player they didn't need and didn't have room for. Mo Williams is more likely to counter-productive than productive. The King still doesn't have a second star. The Cavs are basically the same team as last year.

 

7. Hawks- Last year wasn't a fluke. Bibby will rebound from an injury riddled year for another great season, and Law is a viable option off the bench, but the rest of their reserved were horrendous. I expect Marvin Williams to have a huge year.

 

I don't see it. Their reserves are horrific, and the Hawks only won 37 games last year. Its going to take a bit more this year. Atlanta didn't improve at all.

 

8. Heat- Health will bring improvement, but the top is too tough. Plus I can't put faith in a team that plans on starting Mark Blount and one of Chalmers and Banks.

 

I think Chalmers will surprise some people in his rookie year. The Heat also signed Jamaal Magloire to play center, and he'll be servicable because they won't be counting on him to score. Last year the Nets signed him with the hopes that he could be their main post scorer.

 

Wade/Marion/Beasley is going to be a great trio this season barring injury, Chalmers and one of Magloire/Blount can fill out the other two spots adequately, and they have enough off the bench (Daequan Cook, James Jones, the other of Magloire/Blount, and Alonzo Mourning might be back the second half of the year) to return to the playoffs. They're a legit 4-6 seed team, in my book.

 

 

Indiana: Rasho Nesterovic??? Come on... they don't have on star player (although I think Granger is set for a big year) and their bench is horrendous.

 

Did you watch Indiana last year? This no-star group played well enough to be in the playoff chase till the end. The one thing they lacked was a good point guard. Enter T.J. Ford, you would agree he's a good point guard, right? He's exactly what that team was missing last year, when they had a real shot at a playoff berth.

 

 

Indiana's bench consists of Jarrett Jack, Marquis Daniels, Austin Croshere, Jeff Foster, and Eddie Jones. Not spectacular, but its good enough where it won't hurt them. They also have two rookies that a lot of people like, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert. I don't think depth is a huge issue.

 

Chicago: They could make a run for the 8th spot, but I don't see it. They're fairly deep and have a decent amount of talent, but they don't mesh well together at all, and don't have one guy who can take over at the end of games.

 

Ben Gordon?

 

 

I do agree with your general point here though.

 

 

West:

1. Hornets- Great last year, Paul is getting better, added a great cog on their bench, which was their main weakness.

 

IMO, they're primed to take a step back. Where was this team before last year? They were the surprise team in the NBA last season, coming out of nowhere.

 

 

Having followed the Association for quite a while, I've noticed that surprise teams like that often tend to fall back to Earth the following year. So on paper, this team should at least equal last season's production, but this game is not played on paper.

 

2. Lakers- Another great year, Bynum is back, but I can see him being a cancer and a detriment to the team

 

What did Bynum do to deserve the cancer title? Those first couple of years with the Lakers where he was just awful and had everybody inside and outside the organization calling for his head... I think he responded to that pretty well. If he can respond to adversity like that, I think he can handle whatever this season throws at him.

 

 

Bynum gives L.A. what they did not have after trading for Gasol... toughness inside. Big factor. Lakers will be dominant this season. If they do have in-house chemistry problems, it would be from Odom (and even that's not likely) being upset with his new bench role, not from Bynum.

 

3. Houston- I think TMac finally stays injury free, and if they can get 65+ out of Yao, they'll be up here.

 

Houston is the premier defensive team in the NBA now. I don't think health will be an issue (but I say that every year about Houston). If everyone stays relatively healthy, the Rockets are absolutely loaded.

 

 

6. Suns- I think they'll be better than people thing. Dragic has looked good as their back up and that lets Barbosa move over to the 2 which is a more natural position for him. Lopez is ready to come in and play NBA defense.

 

They're primed for a collapse.

 

 

The frantic run-and-gun game is gone, and Amare was a star in that system. His main offensive game is run-and-dunk. On defense, which Terry Porter is placing much more emphasis on, Amare is less than stellar. This new system hurts Amare more than anything. At Nash's age, he is also best suited for the fast break game. As far as Shaq, he just can't be counted on. He's finished, he already stated he plans retire in 2010. If he still had a lot in the tank, he wouldn't have said something like that.

 

 

So to review, the Suns' two core players won't be helped by this new system, and Shaq just sucks now.

 

7. Spurs- I think we see a drastic fall off from them this year. Ginobili starts out on the shelf, and they just don't have the depth they had last year.

 

Not this drastic. San Antonio will be fine. Ginobili will be back in mid-December, and will be around when the Spurs go on their typical mid-to-late season run.

 

8. Clippers- Great starting five, Davis and Camby will make huge impacts.

 

That's an all new team in L.A. We'll see, since it worked here in Boston, but I think chemistry will be a major issue there, and the players they bought in aren't on the level of the players the Celtics bought in last offseason.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Nobody likes the Suns this year? Same primary personnel. Same court strategy. Won 55 games last year. Something bad needs to happen to them for them to not make the final 8 from the West' date=' IMO.[/quote']

Same court strategy? Terry Porter, the new coach, is laying to rest the fast break style of play, and is placing a huge emphasis on defense now. The team's two best players, Nash and Stoudemire, are not defensive players. Much of the remaining roster is flat-out old. Phoenix is not suited to the new style Porter wants to install.

[TheKilo]

Posey's going to have a hugely positive effect on New Orleans.

[msubulldogs21]

8. Kings -- No one noticed' date=' but the Kings were closing in 40 wins last season, for a team that was projected to win no more than 30. For the time that Ron Artest was playing for the Kings, they actually played better when he wasn't in the lineup. They traded him to Houston this summer, and got a solid prospect in Donte Greene (they also re-acquired Bobby Jackson to help at guard). There is no doubt Sacramento is in rebuilding mode, but led by Kevin Martin, who can contend for the scoring title this year, the Kings are a surprise team perfectly capable of making the playoffs and being heard from.[/quote']

 

As the lone Kings fan on the board (I think?) I would love to see us crack the playoffs this year, but unfortunately I just don't see it happening, mainly due to the stout competition in the West. Kevin Martin is a real up and comer and did a great job last year. I'm really interested in seeing how Jason Thompson adapts. I think he will be a solid player. If Spencer Hawes could develop a serious mean streak that would be nice too. I'd like to see him snap on somebody or something.

 

(The good ole days of Peja, C-Webb, Divac, and Co. seem like such a long time ago. Wow.)

 

Anyway, should be a fun year.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Posey's going to have a hugely positive effect on New Orleans.

Not hugely positive... the guy plays good defense and will hit a few late-game threes. He's a good addition, but he won't be the reason they place 1st in the conference, assuming YankHater's predictions prove to be on target.

[TheKilo]

No, that will be due to the continued improvements of Paul and West.

 

I have then 2nd though.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

As the lone Kings fan on the board (I think?) I would love to see us crack the playoffs this year' date=' but unfortunately I just don't see it happening, mainly due to the stout competition in the West. Kevin Martin is a real up and comer and did a great job last year. I'm really interested in seeing how Jason Thompson adapts. I think he will be a solid player. If Spencer Hawes could develop a serious mean streak that would be nice too. I'd like to see him snap on somebody or something.[/quote']

 

Some of that stout competition has dissolved, particulary at the bottom of the playoff picture. The Nuggets had two players who played defense on last year's team, both are gone, I've already shared my feelings about the Suns, the Clippers wasted their time getting a washed up Camby and injury-prone Baron Davis, and the Warriors are without Monta Ellis for half the season (at least) and lost Baron. So there's some openings for the last one or two playoff spots.

 

 

 

BTW I wouldn't call myself a Kings 'fan', but I typically end up rooting for them.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

No, that will be due to the continued improvements of Paul and West.

 

I have then 2nd though.

Well we shall see... both sides have made their arguments, not a whole lot else we can do that wouldn't be repetitive.

[YanksHater213]

Ellsbury:

 

What makes you think the Hornets will take a step back. There really is no basis to that arguement. Paul is the best young point guard in the game. West and Peja are great 2 and 3 scorers, and the addition of Posey runs out a great bench.

 

Williams isn't better than Gibson? Williams has averaged 17/6 the last 2 years, Gibson can't hold a candle to these numbers, let alone the fact that Williams is a better playmaker. Not sure why you don't like this move, but he's a huge upgrade over Gibson and West, and it lets West move over to his more natural 2 position, and lets Gibson stay on the bench where he's better served as an overall player.

 

How will the Hawks not make it? They're better than last year by virture of being healthy. All five of their starters will only get better, especially Bibby. Their bench might be horrific, but the other three teams down there are all either just as paper thin (Indy), have too many injury problems (Wizards), or just don't have it (Bulls).

 

 

Chalmers won't be surprising anyone. He played at Kansas throughout his career where he had many, MANY, weapons at his disposal. Here, he doesn't have nearly as much. Blount isn't a real center, and will get eaten alive by everyone in this conference outside of Rasho Nesterovic. Jamaal Magloire? He hasn't done anything worth noting since '06. He's not going to be a critical piece at all.

 

Yes, I did watch Indy last year, and what I see in them is a team that doesn't mesh well at all with each other, and their coach, Jim O'Brien. Not only do they not have a single big impact player, but they don't play well enough defense to the point where O'Brien can't coach to his strengths. Hibbert will be a good backup center with time, but he's not going to have an impact this year, and FYI, Marquise Daniels and Jamaal Tinsley are not good basketball players.

 

I don't see Gordon as good enough to take over late in games because he simply can't create for himself. He can take over a few here and there, but he's not that good where he can do it based on his shooting alone on a nightly basis.

 

Where was New Orleans the year before this? They were playing some home games in Oklahoma City, Speedy Claxton and Desmond Mason were their two best players over there aside from Paul and West. Paul and West are both improved, they have a great 3rd scorer in Peja, Peterson and Chandler both fit well, and their bench is pretty solid. I can't see why they'd get any worse and regress.

 

I feel like Bynum will feel like he's entitled to touches. The guy played 35 games last year and averaged something like 13/10 a game, and he wants 17 million dollars. Is he crazy?!? He certainly thinks he's worth more than he is, and I expect it to carry onto the court.

 

If you watched the Suns last year, Amare was perfectly fine in the half court sets. He's more athletic and quicker than the guys guarding him, so they'll have no problem doing it. This will put less wear on Shaqs' body as well, and Nash will thrive in this system.

 

The Spurs not having a great bench will catch up to them. They've had the same team the last 3 years, and they've regressed a bit each year, and I think that will continue, especially in the strong West. Their bench is mediocre as hell this year.

 

No sense in comparing the Clippers to the Celtics. I said they'd finish 8th, not 1st. Davis and Camby bring scoring, playmaking, and defense to the table, and add that with Kaman, an improving Thornton, and Mobley, I think they have what it takes to finish 8th. Ricky Davis will be great for their bench, because he'll be getting most of the touches on the offensive end.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Ellsbury:

 

What makes you think the Hornets will take a step back. There really is no basis to that arguement. Paul is the best young point guard in the game. West and Peja are great 2 and 3 scorers, and the addition of Posey runs out a great bench.

 

Not a whole lot more I can add to this than I already have... we will see what happens.

 

Williams isn't better than Gibson? Williams has averaged 17/6 the last 2 years, Gibson can't hold a candle to these numbers, let alone the fact that Williams is a better playmaker. Not sure why you don't like this move, but he's a huge upgrade over Gibson and West, and it lets West move over to his more natural 2 position, and lets Gibson stay on the bench where he's better served as an overall player.

 

No doubt playing with Michael Redd as opposed to LeBron James helped those numbers. I think Mo playing more minutes than Gibson also contributed.

 

West moving to shooting guard isn't going to magically fix that hole, either, seeing as West is a tad undersized to be a 2 and his strength thus far in his career has been his defense.

 

How will the Hawks not make it? They're better than last year by virture of being healthy. All five of their starters will only get better, especially Bibby. Their bench might be horrific, but the other three teams down there are all either just as paper thin (Indy), have too many injury problems (Wizards), or just don't have it (Bulls).

 

They're not better than last year, they lost their sixth man, Josh Childress, who was criminally underrated. That'll offset any small improvements from Bibby or Horford.

 

 

Atlanta only won 37 games last year, there was no way they should have made the playoffs. If the East was legitamite outside of 3 or 4 teams, they wouldn't have made it. They might win 1 or 2 more games this year, but that won't get them in, due to Indiana and Miami flying by them (in my book).

 

 

Chalmers won't be surprising anyone. He played at Kansas throughout his career where he had many, MANY, weapons at his disposal. Here, he doesn't have nearly as much. Blount isn't a real center, and will get eaten alive by everyone in this conference outside of Rasho Nesterovic. Jamaal Magloire? He hasn't done anything worth noting since '06. He's not going to be a critical piece at all.

 

Chalmers has weapons in Miami. Their names are Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Shawn Marion, Daequan Cook, and James Jones. That's plenty good enough on the weapons front.

 

Magloire isn't going to be asked to do nearly as much as when he was in Portland and New Jersey, bad teams who needed him to give them scoring, which he can't do. What he can do is rebound and score in spots while the defense is focused elsewhere. Miami is a good fit for him. I don't think he'll resurrect his career to the level of 03-04, but he can be productive. IMHO, he needs to be the starter over Blount.

 

Yes, I did watch Indy last year, and what I see in them is a team that doesn't mesh well at all with each other, and their coach, Jim O'Brien. Not only do they not have a single big impact player, but they don't play well enough defense to the point where O'Brien can't coach to his strengths. Hibbert will be a good backup center with time, but he's not going to have an impact this year, and FYI, Marquise Daniels and Jamaal Tinsley are not good basketball players.

 

Jamaal Tinsley does suck, that's why he won't be on the team this year. Marquis Daniels is decent, he can't shoot but he can score a little and get a steal or two a game.

 

For players who don't have an impact, Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy were awful close to 20 ppg last year. Jeff Foster can have an impact, he only averaged 3.4 offensive rebounds a game last year, almost 9 in total, while playing about half the game. Ford is one of the better point guards in the league.

 

All I know is, for a team that didn't mesh, they did awful good for what was expected of them this time last year. And as I said, the main thing they missed was good point guard play. T.J. Ford is a good point guard, he was overshadowed by Calderon in Toronto.

 

Where was New Orleans the year before this? They were playing some home games in Oklahoma City, Speedy Claxton and Desmond Mason were their two best players over there aside from Paul and West. Paul and West are both improved, they have a great 3rd scorer in Peja, Peterson and Chandler both fit well, and their bench is pretty solid. I can't see why they'd get any worse and regress.

 

On paper, the Hornets are dynamite. Basketball is not played on paper. Again, I've follwed the league for quite a while and surprise teams like that do come back down to reality, to some extent, next season. Don't forget that there are expectations on them, now. As opposed to this time last year where they were free of any expectations or pressure. May seem nitpicky, but I believe that its a factor.

 

I feel like Bynum will feel like he's entitled to touches. The guy played 35 games last year and averaged something like 13/10 a game, and he wants 17 million dollars. Is he crazy?!? He certainly thinks he's worth more than he is, and I expect it to carry onto the court.

 

I don't.

 

If you watched the Suns last year, Amare was perfectly fine in the half court sets. He's more athletic and quicker than the guys guarding him, so they'll have no problem doing it. This will put less wear on Shaqs' body as well, and Nash will thrive in this system.

 

Amare is an offensive stud in the fast break game, that's what he was meant for. He can still do well in this new system, just not as well. Unfortunately, not the case with anyone around him.

 

If I was Phoenix, I wouldn't want Nash's easily injured self playing in a more physical game style.

 

Shaq is through. End of story. He'll just be a wad out there the 35 games he does play.

 

The Spurs not having a great bench will catch up to them. They've had the same team the last 3 years, and they've regressed a bit each year, and I think that will continue, especially in the strong West. Their bench is mediocre as hell this year.

 

Tim Duncan is still the best (or very close to it), Tony Parker is still only 26 years old and only gets more productive every year, Ginobili won't miss a beat once he's back. Off the bench they have Kurt Thomas, known for rebounding and good defense, Ime Udoka, shooter/defender, Michael Finley, shooter, Roger Mason does a little of everything. They basically have the same formula off their bench they've always had; shooters, defenders, rebounders (down low). Its worked in the past, no reason it can't work this season.

 

No sense in comparing the Clippers to the Celtics. I said they'd finish 8th, not 1st. Davis and Camby bring scoring, playmaking, and defense to the table, and add that with Kaman, an improving Thornton, and Mobley, I think they have what it takes to finish 8th. Ricky Davis will be great for their bench, because he'll be getting most of the touches on the offensive end.

 

Chemistry is going to be a major issue with the Clippers. They effectively swapped out Brand and Maggette for Davis and Camby. Out of the two duos, I'll take Brand and Maggette. Camby is old, and while can he can still contribute a lot to a defense, he will never give you close to what Brand gave LA. Mobley's slowing down, Davis will make more contributions than Mobley will.

 

What the Clippers did, once again, was go out and find three or four mismatched veterans to bring in and hope that they can all co-exist and give them wins. That plan has backfired a few times on the Clippers in the past. Only this time, its pretty much a complete housecleaning with the exception of Kaman and Thornton.

[TheKilo]

Isn't James Jones out for like three months?

[YanksHater213]

He'll be out a little less than that, but he'll still be out at least two.

 

The Heat have a lot of issues though. Chalmers and Beasley have character issues, and South Beach is the last place people with character issues need to be. Marion is a fast-break player, and won't be anywhere near the player he was in Phoenix. Mark Blount and Jamaal Magloire is the worst Center duo in the NBA, both Haslem and Beasley are undersized 4s, who knows what you'll get from Banks and Chalmers, and Wade can only carry this team so far. I think they'll max around 38 wins, and they'd be lucky to see the 8th seed.

 

 

On Pacers: I think you're vastly overrating them. Someone needed to score the points in that offense, and it just happened to be Dunleavy and Granger. Granger is legit, the guy is a great player, but he's too much of a combo-forward and tweener to be a number one option for any team. In an ideal world, he'd be a #2 option, which he is better suited for. The other non-playoff teams from the East made more major upgrades. TJ Ford is overrated too. He's quick as hell, but he's a pretty awful shooter, and he loves turning the ball over, and his defense is just fair at best.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Isn't James Jones out for like three months?

Something like that. Its not for the season though, he'll still provide a deep threat when he returns.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

The Heat have a lot of issues though. Chalmers and Beasley have character issues' date=' and South Beach is the last place people with character issues need to be. Marion is a fast-break player, and won't be anywhere near the player he was in Phoenix. Mark Blount and Jamaal Magloire is the worst Center duo in the NBA, both Haslem and Beasley are undersized 4s, who knows what you'll get from Banks and Chalmers, and Wade can only carry this team so far. I think they'll max around 38 wins, and they'd be lucky to see the 8th seed.[/quote']

 

Chalmers and Beasley will be fine, I doubt they'll act up their first year in the league, especially Chalmers. Marion is changing systems, but he is still a very good player and fills up every section of the stat sheet. You could do a lot worse looking for a sidekick to your superstar. Beasley provides scoring, whether its from inside or mid-range. Its all about taking pressure off Wade. Haslem may be undersized, but he has done nothing but good things for Miami. He averages close to a double-double every year. I've given up all hope on Banks, but they do have Chris Quinn to serve as a backup. Chalmers is a surprise waiting to happen. He can flat-out shoot.

 

 

Point being, Wade is an excellent basketball player with plenty of weapons around him. Miami has enough pieces to get 45 wins, at least, barring major injuries.

 

 

On Pacers: I think you're vastly overrating them. Someone needed to score the points in that offense, and it just happened to be Dunleavy and Granger. Granger is legit, the guy is a great player, but he's too much of a combo-forward and tweener to be a number one option for any team. In an ideal world, he'd be a #2 option, which he is better suited for. The other non-playoff teams from the East made more major upgrades. TJ Ford is overrated too. He's quick as hell, but he's a pretty awful shooter, and he loves turning the ball over, and his defense is just fair at best.

 

TJ averaged 2 TOs a game on the button last year. Andre Miller, Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Devin Harris all averaged more. And those are just the players I bothered to look up. Shooting is not a pre-requisite to be a good point guard. Jason Kidd, Andre Miller. He plays decent defense. The fact is, he helps teams win, recent history proves that. Milwaukee made the playoffs in 06 when he returned from the spine injury, and in 07 he pushed Toronto to the playoffs for the first time since god-knows-when, and Toronto made it last year as well. This Indiana team has as much collective talent on it as any of the three teams mentioned.

 

 

Granger is a player on the rise, there's a reason lots of people like him so much. He does a bit of everything. His average will top 20 ppg this year.

 

 

What other non-playoff teams from last season made major improvements, besides Miami? New Jersey dumped Richard Jefferson for essentially nothing, Milwaukee still sucks despite taking on Jefferson, Chicago did nothing, Charlotte did nothing. Who are these other teams on the up-swing?

[YanksHater213]

Chalmers and Beasley already f***ed up, both fined 50k, for having weed at a NBA Rookie transition program thing. Quinn sucks, he can shoot, and is WAY too small to play at the 2, and offers nothing in terms of defense. He can't defend the quick 1s or the bigger 2s. Haslem is a good player, but again, not a starter on a great team. He started on the Miami team in '06, but that team was ridiculous.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Chalmers and Beasley already f***ed up' date=' both fined 50k, for having weed at a NBA Rookie transition program thing. Quinn sucks, [b']he can shoot[/b], and is WAY too small to play at the 2, and offers nothing in terms of defense. He can't defend the quick 1s or the bigger 2s. Haslem is a good player, but again, not a starter on a great team. He started on the Miami team in '06, but that team was ridiculous.

 

Haslem also started on the 04-05 and 06-07 teams, in addition to the title team. He's a solid player, and he gets things done.

 

Judging by the context of the bolded part, I assume you meant that Quinn can't shoot, in which case you be wrong, he hit 40% of his three point attempts last year (making 64 total). Overall FG% was about 43%, not spectacular, but plenty good enough for the role he'd be playing, considering his three-point and free-throw percentages. He's not a great man defender, but he can get a takeaway here and there. Last season, however bad the team was, Quinn showed that he can run a team's offense. FTR, what does it matter how tall Quinn is and whether he can play shooting guard? We're talking about him in a backup point guard role, a role he's perfectly capable of filling.

[YanksHater213]

1) I meant what I wrote. I acknowledged that he can shoot

2) Chalmers and Banks will be the pointguard and Quinn will be coming off the bench at the 2.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

1) I meant what I wrote. I acknowledged that he can shoot

 

Ok, just seemed iffy with the context, thought you had made a typo.

 

2) Chalmers and Banks will be the pointguard and Quinn will be coming off the bench at the 2.

 

Uhhh... where is this coming from? Regardless, somebody's forgetting about DQ, Diawara, and possibly Dorell Wright.

 

Even if it was true, I doubt it lasts very long, once Erik Spoelstra discovers just how much Marcus Banks sucks.

[YanksHater213]

Diawara is a scrub. He provides little more than perimeter defense, and Dorrell Wright is a huge bust. Spoelstra is also an unknown. He's never coached a game, and was an assistant and scouting director before, and he wasn't took great of a scout. Aside from Wade and Butler, who both fell into their laps, they've yet to draft one solid impact player.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Diawara is a scrub. He provides little more than perimeter defense' date=' and Dorrell Wright is a huge bust. Spoelstra is also an unknown. He's never coached a game, and was an assistant and scouting director before, and he wasn't took great of a scout. Aside from Wade and Butler, who both fell into their laps, they've yet to draft one solid impact player.[/quote']

 

Perimeter D won't lead you too astray, will it?

 

 

 

Spoelstra being unexperienced is pretty insignificant, IMO. The one thing I'm sure of is the team is happy to be out from under Pat Riley's browbeating, over-the-top coaching style.

[ORS]

Same court strategy? Terry Porter' date=' the new coach, is laying to rest the fast break style of play, and is placing a huge emphasis on defense now. The team's two best players, Nash and Stoudemire, are not defensive players. Much of the remaining roster is flat-out old. Phoenix is not suited to the new style Porter wants to install.[/quote']

What new style of ball? Porter isn't an idiot. He'll coach to his talent and they'll still play up tempo ball. The difference is that he won't ignore defensive focus like D'Antoni did. Are they going to win 60 games? Not likely, but I don't see them out of the top-8.

[See Red]

My only prediction is that Allen Iverson doesn't finish the season in Denver.

 

And the Nuggets miss the playoffs, because they don't have a Point Guard, because they're run by idiots.

 

I'm still kind of curious about what they do with 'Melo. They were talking about him playing the 4... he's a force down-low offensively. One of the best, if not the best, low post scorers in the League. But he's awful defensively and I can't see him doing any better on D when he's giving up size to a guy down low.

[schillingouttheks]

And the Nuggets miss the playoffs' date=' because they don't have a Point Guard, because they're run by idiots.[/quote']

 

FIRE CASHMAN!

[See Red]

FIRE CASHMAN!

 

Well, had they traded for Santana they might've won the Western Conference last year...

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

What new style of ball? Porter isn't an idiot. He'll coach to his talent and they'll still play up tempo ball. The difference is that he won't ignore defensive focus like D'Antoni did. Are they going to win 60 games? Not likely' date=' but I don't see them out of the top-8.[/quote']

 

All signs point to Porter changing the Suns' identity. Steve Kerr was brought in a couple years ago and didn't like the teams style of play, and was aiming toward building a more playoff-friendly team. Which is why he traded for Shaq. Anyway, why would he have gone and hired another coach who wants to play up-tempo?

 

 

Phoenix was kind of in a tough spot this past offseason, because it was getting fairly clear that they wouldn't win with D'Antoni as coach in his system, but they went and fixed the issue too late. He traded for a washed up center who's making twenty million a year, a salary that handcuffs them for next offseason (as it did for this past offseason), preventing them from going to get immediate help to salvage a possible title run.