Three Things to watch for Game 4

[Gom]

From ESPN Insider. Enjoy.

 

Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.

 

 

 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH: ALCS GAME 4

 

1. Wakefield shaky in recent postseasons

 

Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield gets the Game 4 start on Tuesday night, but his postseason performance in recent years has been less than stellar. In six October outings since 2004, Wakefield has a 9.00 ERA -- double his 4.49 ERA over the past five regular seasons.

 

 

Wakefield throws knuckleballs around 85 percent of the time, along with fastballs and occasional curves. Opponents have amassed a slugging percentage of .560 against his knuckler in the postseason compared to .416 in the regular season since 2004.

 

Like other change-of-pace pitches, knuckleballs are effective in the strike zone when located on the corners. When Wakefield's knucklers float over the middle of the plate, though, they get hit harder than conventional changeups:

 

Well-hit average vs. pitches in zone (2008)

Away Middle In

Wakefield knuckleballs .211 .338 .179

MLB changeups .207 .320 .235

 

 

 

 

In his postseason outings over the past few years, Wakefield has had some difficulty commanding his knuckleball and left more of them over the heart of the plate:

 

2004-08: Wakefield knuckleballs in the strike zone

% in middle

Regular season 30.4

Postseason 35.8

 

 

 

 

The Rays hit knuckleballs from Wakefield and Seattle's R.A. Dickey better than most clubs:

 

2007-08: Vs. Wakefield, Dickey knuckleballs

BA OBP SLG

Current Rays hitters .278 .336 .435

All others .252 .305 .416

 

 

 

 

Over the past two seasons, Akinori Iwamura is 6-for-17 against Wakefield's knuckler. Evan Longoria went 3-for-6 this year versus the knuckleball.

 

2. Rays relievers showing no signs of weakness

 

The Rays received a strong outing from starting pitcher Matt Garza in Game 3 on Monday, helping them to a 2-1 ALCS advantage over the Red Sox. Garza went six innings and turned the ball over to the bullpen, which was exceptional all regular season and continues to show no weakness in October.

 

 

Rays relievers in October

 

ERA 1.57

BAA .179 (14-for-78)

BAA with RISP .111 (2-for-18)

 

 

 

 

 

On Monday, J.P. Howell and Edwin Jackson combined for three scoreless frames. It doesn't matter who gets the call: Every Rays reliever besides submariner Chad Bradford, who had a rough outing in Saturday's Game 2, has a sub-.200 batting average against in October.

 

The Tampa Bay bullpen has taken a relatively simple approach in its postseason domination. They throw fastballs, and they get ahead. Excluding the left-handed Howell, who likes to use his slider often, the rest of the Rays' bullpen has used the heater 86 percent of the time in the playoffs. The seven Rays who have made postseason appearances out of the bullpen have finished 51 percent of plate appearances with the count in their favor. The league average is 44 percent.

 

Rays pitchers (both starters and relievers) had the lowest batting average against (.224) after the fifth inning this season.

 

 

 

3. Sonnanstine vs. Red Sox

 

Andy Sonnanstine will take the ball for the Rays in Game 4. Sonnanstine has had success against a few of the key Red Sox hitters:

 

 

• Dustin Pedroia is 3-for-15 (.200) against Sonnanstine, with one extra-base hit and one walk. Sonnanstine has worked him mostly away, and Pedroia has yet to prove that he can make solid contact against a pitch out there.

 

Pedroia vs. Sonnanstine

Outside Middle/Inside

Pitch Pct. 58% 42%

Batting average .100 (1-for-10) .400 (2-for-5)

Well-hit average .000 (0-for-10) .400 (2-for-5)

 

 

 

 

• David Ortiz has logged a .188 batting average (3-for-16) against Sonnanstine with only one walk. Look for Sonnanstine to work inside with his off-speed stuff as Ortiz is 0-for-6 against his nonfastballs that finish on the inner third. Ortiz has struggled with these pitches all season:

 

Ortiz vs. inside off-speed pitches from RHPs

 

Batting average .143

Slugging % .229

Miss % of swings 45

 

 

 

 

 

• Sonnanstine has done a nice job of keeping the dangerous Kevin Youkilis at bay, holding him to just one hit in 12 career at-bats. Sonnanstine typically works his fastball down in the zone, but watch for him to elevate the heater to Youkilis if he gets two strikes on him. That has been the formula for four of the outs he has recorded against the Boston slugger.

[ORS]

Thanks for posting that Gom, there's some interesting information there. Although, it's kind of irresponsible of ESPN to lump Dickey and Wakefield together just because they throw a knuckleball. Wakefield's composite number over those two years against Tampa is about .010 lower in each category, which is next to nothing, so I don't see why including Dickey is necessary. Furthermore, Dickey has only thrown 5 IP to Wakefield's 50.1 over the two year time frame. They need editors with better critical thinking skills.

[jpeters]

Things to watch for??

 

A severe Beating?:lol::harhar::thumbsup:

[Dojji]

And lo, JoeyMagrane hjas returned.