Kevin Cash

[Jayhawk Bill]

Kevin Cash is hitting .361.

 

I'm sitting here at my computer, sifting through page after page of stats and history, looking for some clue, and I can't find much. Small sample size is out the window*; it's got to be something more. Right now these are my top three options:

 

1) In blatant defiance of MLB drug testing, Kevin Cash spent the offseason juicing. Now blessed with the strength of Barry Bonds, he suddenly discovers that MLB is not so tough after all. He is, however, surprisingly grumpy when the media isn't watching.

 

2) Down in Florida during Spring Training, Kevin Cash was nearby when Hank Steinbrenner told Satan that there was no way that he was selling his soul the way his Daddy had years back, and that if Brian Cashman's soul wasn't good enough then the devil could just screw off. Overhearing the conversation, Kevin Cash quickly moved in and pointed out that, although he wasn't selling his own soul this off-season, it would still be just an incredible joke to injure BOTH Yankees catchers, let Varitek have his career year, and to bless himself with a .361 batting average. "Just a thought," Cash might've said, "and I might be willing to do business in the 2008-2009 season if it really worked out..."

 

3) Maybe there's something in the stats.

 

Unable to research the first two concepts adequately, I turned to the stats. Three things struck me:

 

1) Cash's LD% is 34.6% this year, vs. a career 18.8%. That 34.6% isn't sustainable. If he drops back to 18.8%, it's going to cost him roughly 80 points of batting average.

 

2) Cash's career BABIP on ground balls is .131, but it's been .273 this season. You know, looking back at Cash in 2007 I remember a whole lot of frustratingly bad dribblers to the middle infield that I don't see this season. That .131 BABIP was almost unbelievably low, but it's possible for a slow-footed, weak batter. A BABIP of .270-odd on ground balls is sustainable for many MLB hitters, even some as slow as Cash. The change here might represent a ability shift due to good coaching, and it might be a permanent shift.

 

3) Kevin Cash's career batting line is .077/.045/.181 higher when starting instead of coming in as a substitute, despite doing better than his career stats when facing relief pitchers. Cash is getting semi-regular use in MLB for the first time since 2004--it could easily make this big a difference.

 

How good is Kevin Cash? :dunno:

 

I don't know. I know that he's not a .361 hitter in MLB; I know, too, that he's not a .170 hitter any more, either.

 

I'd suggest that, because of that bit about LD%, that .280 is about the top end of what his true talent level is right now. Given that he's hit .361 so far, though, binomial theorem suggests that .230 is probably around the low end of his true talent level. If he were much less of a hitter, he just wouldn't get this lucky.

 

I believe that Cash's true talent level has shifted and he's now, at age 30, somewhere between a .230 and a .280 hitter, probably closer to a .230 hitter. Even if he's now a .230 hitter, that's 60 batting average points better than we had any right to expect from Cash coming into 2008.

 

:thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

 

 

* The odds of an established .170 hitter hitting .361 this far into the season are less than one in two hundred. Cash's MLE in AAA 2006-2007 was around .170-.180, and his actual MLB stats were much lower.

[BoSox21]

ummm, he's seeing the ball well?

[redsoxrules]

juicing? how many HR does he have?

[Jayhawk Bill]

juicing? how many HR does he have?

 

First, a comment: I don't think that Kevin Cash is juicing any more than I think that he's made a deal with the devil.

 

That said, the root of humor is truth: steroid use might produce better bat speed, more line drives, and a higher BABIP on ground balls. Alex Sanchez certainly didn't hit home runs, but he was the first MLB player to test positive for PEDs.

 

Steroid use might also produce positive urinalysis tests. I haven't seen any of those on any current 40-man roster member of the Red Sox since serious testing was initiated in 2005, and I suspect that the organization doesn't tolerate current steroid use. YMMV.

 

ummm' date=' he's seeing the ball well?[/quote']

 

Unless he's had Lasik surgery or Borg implants, I think that you're talking about small sample size fluctuations.

 

The reason that I started the thread is that we're at the point where this is very unlikely to be a small sample fluctuation in performance, and because there's a key stat, BABIP on ground balls, that's showing a change that could account for this improvement. I'm not saying that he's become a .361 hitter, but I'm saying that he's probably a .230 hitter or better. I'm roughly 95% confident of that, and there's no way that Kevin Cash was a .230 hitter for the first decade-odd of his pro career.

 

Certainly we'll see--but I don't expect Cash to hit at a level that's 95% unlikely for a .230 hitter the rest of the way through 2008.