Bullpen Concerns

[SCM33]

I tried searching for a previous thread with the title, could not find one to bump, so I guess Ill start one.

 

Early in the season, but certainly one of the weaknesses that is starting to show its ugly head.

 

David Aardsma looked good this spring, and had a solid performance so far through 3 games (I know its only 3, still). I think he stays.

 

Brian Corey has been pretty good, but I doubt he sticks with the team all year. Eventually he will be bumped.

 

Manny Delcarmen-An enigma, plus stuff, plus arm....doesnt always translate. His career numbers over 100 games are pretty good, very good actually.....but he continues to frustrate me.

 

Javier Lopez-sucks....but getting ride of him leaves only 1 lefty in the pen. Hes gotta be replaced, but I think his replacement will have to be another lefty especially considering Oki isnt a real lefty specialist, I think he actually had reverse splits.

 

Paps- nothing has to be said.

 

Oki- same as Paps, obviously hell drop off a little since he was insane last year, and asking him to repeat is unfair.

 

Yoyo-swingman, should not be counted on in tight spots.

 

Timlin-cannot rely on him to be the setup guy anymore. How much does he have left? I think he can be very good in spots, but 60 games from him is asking too much and wearing his abilities too thin at this point i think.

 

That is not a promising evaluation of their bullpen. Something has to give. I think best case scenario is that Colon comes aboard and really does well enough in the rotation allowing Clay to pitch in the bullpen, but in the long term, would Clay be better served pitching in the rotation in AAA, or pitching a couple of innings a week with the big club?

 

If Delcarmen does not step up and become the setup guy.....I think the bullpen is in trouble. I know Oki is great and all....but I think a successful bullpen has 2 setup men....a righty and lefty like back in the days of Embree and Timlin.

[das11209]

I think we should start a thread 'TEAM CONCERNS'. Team has sucked on hitting, starting and relieve pitching and defense.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think we should start a thread 'TEAM CONCERNS'. Team has sucked on hitting' date=' starting and relieve pitching and defense.[/quote']

 

And management, coaching, and intangibles. And clubhouse atmosphere and public relations. There's got to be a root cause--I blame the loss of Tina Cervasio.

 

***

 

BP has something called "Current Adjusted Standings" which includes a won-lost record based upon difficulty-adjusted Pythag projection of W-L based upon actual hits and walks, not runs scored and allowed...think of it as a best approximation of how well the team has played. That third-order won-lost for Boston is 3.9 - 3.1...a .557 W-L Pct. That would put Boston on track for a 90-win season, not what we hope for but certainly nothing about which to panic yet.

 

Boston's pitching has had three problems in this very short season: Snyder, Corey, and Beckett. Snyder is gone. Corey will be gone. Beckett wasn't getting the same strike zone as Halladay (check the Pitch F/X on MLB Gameday if you want to see--I count nine balls called as strikes for Toronto's pitchers yesterday). I see no serious trouble yet, as long as our expectations are reasonable.

[BoSox21]

Timlin-cannot rely on him to be the setup guy anymore. How much does he have left? I think he can be very good in spots' date=' but 60 games from him is asking too much and wearing his abilities too thin at this point i think.[/quote']

 

Timlin isn't being relied on as the setup guy anymore but I see no reason why he can't be a reliable reliever. Everyone thought he was done two years ago and he had a solid year last year. MDC and Oki are the primary setup men.

[MANNYHOF24]

I think we should start a thread 'TEAM CONCERNS'. Team has sucked on hitting' date=' starting and relieve pitching and defense.[/quote']

 

It's really pathetic that you can judge a team that has played a weeks worth of games, not to mention that it was in three countries including Japan. I think Tuesday is when the real evaluations can begin.

[das11209]

It's really pathetic that you can judge a team that has played a weeks worth of games' date=' not to mention that it was in three countries including Japan. I think Tuesday is when the real evaluations can begin.[/quote']

 

Have you read what I said - it was an analysis of what they have done so far. Do you disagree with me on how they have played so far ( and I realise it is just 1 week)? It may/may not indicative of what they might accomplish for the rest of the season.

[TheKilo]

It's really pathetic that you can judge a team that has played a weeks worth of games' date=' not to mention that it was in three countries including Japan. I think Tuesday is when the real evaluations can begin.[/quote']

 

You were the person advocating getting Jorge f***ing Cantu to play second last year.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Perhaps a darkhorse for the bullpen at some point this season....

 

Dustin Richardson just started for Portland

 

5.0 inning, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 3 walks, 10 K

[jacksonianmarch]

Timlin isn't being relied on as the setup guy anymore but I see no reason why he can't be a reliable reliever. Everyone thought he was done two years ago and he had a solid year last year. MDC and Oki are the primary setup men.

 

Timlin was one hell of a reliever, but he has proven that big workloads arent good for him these days. In a limited role, even as a setup man a few times a week, he can do. But if you start using him in consecutive games or set him up for a big workload then you'll see him suck.

 

I have a feeling that Oki will come back to earth a bit and MDC will step it up into the setup role.

[SCM33]

Timlin isn't being relied on as the setup guy anymore but I see no reason why he can't be a reliable reliever. Everyone thought he was done two years ago and he had a solid year last year. MDC and Oki are the primary setup men.

 

 

Yeah, I have those same feelings. Hopefully MDC can pull through and this doesnt snowball on him.

[SCM33]

Timlin and Tavarez were horrendous last night.

 

Tavarez has walked 5 in 7 IP and has a WHIP of 1.96.....horrendous for a relief pitcher. Hes already been in 5 games, or 1/7th of his appearances last season. I think there is some serious concern here.

 

Timlins been in 4 games and cant get anyone out. Hes given up 8 hits in 2 innings. Incredible. He has a WHIP of 4.29, stupendous. People argue that hes been up at down.....but he really hasnt, hes been awful:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=123348&statType=2

 

Aardsma had been very good on the other hand, maybe a surprise to some of us, I really pulled for him in spring training, as he had a good spring and obviously deserved a spot on the roster ahead of Snyder.

 

Throw Javier (I cant believe someone is paying me to look like a specialist) Lopez in to this mix and his cool 1.93 Whip (ya, so much for specialist) and they have really been terrible.

 

DelCarmen is still a headache, and as painful as he is sometimes, he still puts up the numbers.

 

Paps and Oki.....smooth sailing.

 

I think Crisp moves sooner than later, for an arm.

[Mr Crunchy]

Did I miss something here?

They're 9-7 after playing Oakland for 4 on the road,3 in Toronto then dealing with 3 teams who are projected to make the playoffs in NY Det and Cleveland.

Theyre in 1st place with Ortiz hitting .050 with no power,Lowell Dl'd and the table setters underachieving.

 

i tend to look at the negatives as much as anyone but I am not worried about our perfomance as we're in 1st place inspite of the world wide tour and the early scheduling against the iron of the american league.

 

if they're 2 games over .500 come August then I'll worry but based on what we've seen so far I am sleeping ok

[SCM33]

Did I miss something here?

They're 9-7 after playing Oakland for 4 on the road,3 in Toronto then dealing with 3 teams who are projected to make the playoffs in NY Det and Cleveland.

Theyre in 1st place with Ortiz hitting .050 with no power,Lowell Dl'd and the table setters underachieving.

 

i tend to look at the negatives as much as anyone but I am not worried about our perfomance as we're in 1st place inspite of the world wide tour and the early scheduling against the iron of the american league.

 

if they're 2 games over .500 come August then I'll worry but based on what we've seen so far I am sleeping ok

 

I understand its a small sample size, but it is a legetimate concern. I think Ortiz will be fine, as others do....but the fact is, Mike Timlin is now what 42?, Tavarez is also getting older and all the innings and appearances and roles hes had in his career may be catching up to him......Lopez, no more needs to be said about him bc hes always sucked. Those are 3 spots in a pitching staff 25-30% of the staff depending on how many you base it on.......and 50-60% of the bullpen depending on how many they are carrying at any time.

[Mr Crunchy]

considering that the starters have yet to go 8ip,never mind a complete game,becks missing a couple starts,schill out and lester and bucky not performing as well as they should be i am willing to give it some time to work itself out.Dice needs to do better,bottom line is he isnt attacking the hitters as he should..117 pitches in 5 f***ing innings is sad.

we have depth but not consistancy yet.

aardma has been better than advertised

timlin is an every other day guy and will be more consistant

tavares needs to be used in the same way and lopez is lopez.

mdc is in a make or break year as far as im concerned

hes been here long enough to know the a.l hitters and whats expected of him late in the game...with him,oki and paps and more consistancy from the other guys we're ok.

if not we can move on Eric Gagne

[SCM33]

considering that the starters have yet to go 8ip,never mind a complete game,becks missing a couple starts,schill out and lester and bucky not performing as well as they should be i am willing to give it some time to work itself out.Dice needs to do better,bottom line is he isnt attacking the hitters as he should..117 pitches in 5 f***ing innings is sad.

we have depth but not consistancy yet.

aardma has been better than advertised

timlin is an every other day guy and will be more consistant

tavares needs to be used in the same way and lopez is lopez.

mdc is in a make or break year as far as im concerned

hes been here long enough to know the a.l hitters and whats expected of him late in the game...with him,oki and paps and more consistancy from the other guys we're ok.

if not we can move on Eric Gagne

 

I agree with most of this, except MDC. MDC may be in a make or break year in terms of becoming a setup man on a championship caliber team, but he has already proven his value in terms of a good relief pitcher, its just whether or not he can be trusted when the game is on line like Oki is.

[TheKilo]

I'm not concerned with the pen.

 

Oki, Paps, Aardsma, MDC, and to a lesser extent Lopez have all been good.

 

if our biggest concerns are the 6th and 7th guys out of the pen, I think we're in good shape. Especially when Hansen and Masterson come up and kick ass.

[SCM33]

I'm not concerned with the pen.

 

How bout now?

 

Now were at 24 games into the season, and if you take Pap and Okis numbers out of there, its pretty disgusting.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Let's look at a few metrics. Others have posted relievers' ERAs, but ERAs are notorious for misrepresenting relief pitchers. Let's try a couple of other things.

 

First, traditional stats. Bullpens are supposed to save games. How does Boston, as a team, rank regarding saves? The team has nine, tied for third in MLB. That's no problem.

 

But that's Paps.

 

Let's check holds. Now, Boston is tied for 19th in MLB with nine. That sounds bad--but AL teams get fewer holds because of the DH rule. Boston is in a three-way tie for 7th place among AL teams, right at the middle of the league.

 

WXRL is a measure of how many wins a pitcher, or the bullpen, is worth over a AAA pitcher or pitchers. Boston's bullpen as a group is at 1.054 wins, 15th in MLB. Again, using a more-sophisticated metric reflecting the complete bullpen, Boston is average.

 

Here's what I'm seeing: Papelbon is doing a great job. Combining him with everybody else, or choosing a metric avoiding his contributions, brings the team to average or less. For a contending team, that's probably inadequate.

 

Why isn't the bullpen thriving?

 

1) Mike Timlin. His ERA is astronomical, but one can make excuses for an extraordinary BABIP allowed and a high HR/FB ratio. The trouble is, even accounting for those factors he's pitched as if he were a 5.68 ERA relief pitcher (xFIP). One can say "small sample size," but Timlin's 2005-2007 stats were "lucky:" his ERA has been less than his xFIP by a bit more than a run over that whole period. Frankly, Timlin was nearing the range of a AAA pitcher in 2006-2007; another slight decline with age and injury in 2008 has left him below that level.

 

Sadly, Mike Timlin needs to leave. Perhaps he could be enticed into a coaching job at the same salary of his MLB contract through 2008, and he could retire...but he's got to go.

 

2) Manny Delcarmen. Look, I don't think that MDC is doing any worse than he did in 2007, but he's getting average vice superlative support from his fielders and he's had bad luck with fly balls leaving the park. Furthermore, his mistakes have been ill-timed: his failure to hold leads has been as costly as the bullpen work of Timlin and Tavarez combined. I see this as a case of bad luck and unrealistic expectations for Delcarmen, not a reason to trade or release him. Still, his work has hurt the team.

 

3) Kyle Snyder. I hope that Snyder recovers in AAA Pawtucket. He's right where he needs to be.

 

Besides that, Boston has a good set-up/closer duo, two capable seventh-inning guys (Aardsma and Lopez), and a veteran swing man in Julian Tavarez. Ditching Timlin for something better--my vote for "something better" being the now-well-rested Craig Hansen--along with a return to career norms for MDC--should bring the bullpen back to playoff-caliber, albeit not domination.

[ORS]

I agree, JHB. The first move that needs to happen to try and right the ship re: middle relief is getting Timlin to walk off in the sunset and replace him with Hansen. There's more than that move that needs to happen, though. I think the FO needs to convince Francona to treat the Hansen/Lopez/Aardsma/Tavarez combo with a very short leash. When these guys are effective, it is usually evident from the way they pitch to the first batter they see.

[SCM33]

Agree with most, disagree with Lopez. Hes awful, I dont care what his numbers say this season orwhatever.....h really is brutal.

 

I hope for the best with MDC, he grows increasingly frustrating to watch.

 

The things about the pen that bother me are:

1. Mike Timlin for your previous stated research.

2.Javier Lopez, because he does not deserve to have the role he has on a championship caliber team.

3. The mediocrity of MDC, who clearly possess all of the tools to dominate.

 

 

Tavarez is what he is....Aardsma has done well. The three above mentioned drive me crazy though.

[ACL BoSox]

Last year convinced me that tavarez needs to find a new line of work, and timlin needs to retire.

 

There, that's two bullpen headaches we can work on getting rid of.

 

Lopez is good for the occassional lefty-lefty matchup, but gets way overused.

 

I don't know what MDC's problem is, he's got the tools and yet he continues to get himself into trouble all the time. You can say the same about Hansen now after the other day's performance.

 

Aardsma I actually like, so long as he isn't overused. Bryan Corey is meh... wouldn't trust him in a big spot but he's serviceable.

 

The Sox need to add a power arm to the bullpen, ditch the first two guys I mentioned, and reduce the roles of everyone else is the bullpen sans Papelbon & Okajima.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Trivia factoids regarding Javier Lopez:

 

1) His career first-half ERA is 6.67, but his career second-half ERA is 1.99, over a sample of 118 IP and 63 IP, respectively.

 

2) His career ERA in Fenway Park is 3.15 in 40 IP.

[ORS]

Agree with most, disagree with Lopez. Hes awful, I dont care what his numbers say this season orwhatever.....h really is brutal.

 

I hope for the best with MDC, he grows increasingly frustrating to watch.

 

The things about the pen that bother me are:

1. Mike Timlin for your previous stated research.

2.Javier Lopez, because he does not deserve to have the role he has on a championship caliber team.

3. The mediocrity of MDC, who clearly possess all of the tools to dominate.

 

 

Tavarez is what he is....Aardsma has done well. The three above mentioned drive me crazy though.

I disagree about Lopez. He's frustrating as hell because he's so inconsistent, but he does show flashes of effectiveness. He was very good late in the game Wednesday, which probably brought on his usage and the trust Francona had with him on Thursday. The problem as I see it concerning Lopez is that Francona seems to trust him more than his inconsistency should warrant.

 

If Francona is unable to overcome this tendancy he has with Lopez, then perhaps it would be best if the FO removes him as an option, like they need to do with Timlin.

[SCM33]

I disagree about Lopez. He's frustrating as hell because he's so inconsistent, but he does show flashes of effectiveness. He was very good late in the game Wednesday, which probably brought on his usage and the trust Francona had with him on Thursday. The problem as I see it concerning Lopez is that Francona seems to trust him more than his inconsistency should warrant.

 

If Francona is unable to overcome this tendancy he has with Lopez, then perhaps it would be best if the FO removes him as an option, like they need to do with Timlin.

 

 

I dont think that flashes of effectiveness serves the Redsox best. Flashes of excellence is good on a average to good team, but not a team with a roster full of guys who have a chance at the champioship. Hes good in non pressure situations, but a team with champioship dreams makes him replaceable. I wont speculate, but there has got to be options out there better than Lopez and Timlin.

 

EDIT: I agree with the second part of your post.

 

Either way, giving up a game in which your starter gives up 1 er in 6 innings is inexcusable....especially if your offense scored you 5.

[TheKilo]

I dont think that flashes of effectiveness serves the Redsox best. Flashes of excellence is good on a average to good team' date=' but not a team with a roster full of guys who have a chance at the champioship[/b'].

 

Funny, they won a championship with these guys last season.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Keith Foulke

Rudy Seanez

Lenny DiNardo

Kevin Jarvis

Jermaine Van Buren

Craig Breslow

David Riske

Joel Pinerio

Brendan Donnelly

JC Romero

Eric Gagne

Kyle Snyder

Matt Mantei

Alan Embree

Mike Myers

John Halama

Chad Bradford

Blaine Neal

Mike Remlinger

 

Just some names from our bullpen in the last few years....I think it's safe to say our bullpen will turn over this season. Consider in 2007 we started with Joel Pinerio, JC Romero, and Brendan Donnelly....finished with Eric Gagne, Javier Lopez, and Manny Delcarmen.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Have I mentioned to this forum yet that I believe that John Henry is Nosferatu?

 

I mean, it makes sense: he's tall, bony, and a whiter shade of pale; we never see him in the sunlight, only indoors or at night; he made his fortune by seemingly exerting an almost mystical control over the financial markets; and he's an associate of Larry Lucchino, whom we all know to be the spawn of Satan.

 

And now, it seems that John Henry has used his young apprentice, the oddly-charismatic Theo Epstein, to raise Bryan Corey from the dead.

 

A few Bryan Corey stats:

 

PECOTA-projected ERA: 4.64

Actual 2008 ERA: 10.50

 

Let me use insight I've gleaned from decades of sabermetric analysis to explain the subtleties and ramifications of these numbers:

 

1) He's not expected to be good.

2) He's doing worse than expected.

 

It's tough to blame Bryan Corey--heck, he's even starting to look a little bit pale, white, and undead.

 

It's easy, however, to blame Theo Epstein and the front office. There are choices that might work: they could bring up a hot prospect, gambling development to give them a current chance in the bullpen in low-leverage low-stress situations; they could bring up an older, career minor leaguer of unknown MLB value and see what he could do; they could try to trade with a team already falling from contention for bullpen help. Instead, they're choosing to use Bryan Corey, a guy who clearly demonstrated his mediocrity over a season in Pawtucket last year* and who is showing further decline with age this year.

 

Boston needs to use one of these other options. Returning a player claimed by nobody as he passed waivers to the MLB roster mere days later is futile--with time, he might "find himself," but he clearly hasn't done that.

 

***

 

Mike Timlin was on the DL earlier this season. I had thought that he was on the "Disabled List," but his performance since his return has demonstrated that he was probably on the "Dead List" instead.

 

A few Mike Timlin stats:

 

PECOTA-projected ERA: 4.36

Actual 2008 ERA: 13.50

 

Analysis:

 

1) He's not expected to be very good.

2) He's doing much worse than expected.

 

He's got to go.

 

***

 

Options: Lee Gronkiewicz is looking good at Pawtucket, and it's now or never for a pitcher his age; Hansen had moments of brilliance mixed with minutes of frustration in his recent appearance--and that's better than Corey or Timlin can do.

 

Plus, of course, Theo Epstein has a telephone, and there are already a half-dozen teams who might be looking to ditch reliable, more-or-less average relief pitchers for a "B" grade prospect, salary relief, and a roster spot for their youngsters. The Red Sox are contending, and Spring games count--we need to make a move.

 

***

 

One last thought...has anybody else noticed that JD Drew is looking pale, thin, and drawn, and that he's been sleeping in this weird chamber? Just sayin...:dunno:

 

 

 

 

 

 

* If a 33-year-old cannot dominate AAA, where the younger minor leaguers are still learning, he's going to be hit badly in MLB.

[ksushi]

I'm curious what you guys think of hansen after a peak this season. I thought his stuff looked worlds better than in any previous call up. The home run, IMO, was a better example of good hitting than it was of bad pitching. Either way, its not what you like to see from a guy who needs to bounce back and get his career in the majors back on track. I loved the way he was using his slider and that velocity is very impressive still. I think Hansen might be ready for a more lengthy cup of coffee.

[TheKilo]

I'm curious what you guys think of hansen after a peak this season. I thought his stuff looked worlds better than in any previous call up. The home run' date=' IMO, was a better example of good hitting than it was of bad pitching. Either way, its not what you like to see from a guy who needs to bounce back and get his career in the majors back on track. I loved the way he was using his slider and that velocity is very impressive still. I think Hansen might be ready for a more lengthy cup of coffee.[/quote']

 

Loved what I saw from Hansen the other night....that slider looked unhittable.

 

When can we have Timlin go the way of Old Yeller?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Loved what I saw from Hansen the other night....that slider looked unhittable.

 

I checked the Pitch f/x log. You're right: Hansen used two pitches, his slider and his fastball. The slider was never hit into fair territory, and it was the out pitch for the recorded strikeouts.