Class of 2009 Free Agents

[a700hitter]

How much is Manny's hitting worth?

I think that it is very hard to quantify the value of having two tremendous stud hitters like Manny and Ortiz in the middle of a lineup. You may be able to find stats that show Manny's effect on Ortiz, based on when Manny is in or out of the lineup. However, I really believe that having a LHH and RHH like Ortiz and Manny creates a dynamic effect on the rest of the lineup that is very hard to quantify. Pitchers focus on those guys not hurting them. They often pitch around them and when they are not pitching around them they have to work extremely hard to get them out. This results in the rest of the lineup seeing more hittable strikes because they are putting the big boys on 1st or 1st and 2nd. It also results in less quality stuff to the remaining hitters, because a pitcher can't hump it up there every pitch. If they do, they can't go as many innings. That is another effect of Manny and Ortiz being in the middle of the lineup. Pitchers have to work so hard that they are done by the 5th inning. I realize that the supporting cast has something to do with this, and I believe that the FO has done a good job of tailoring a patient supporting cast to enhance the Manny-Ortiz effect. Is Manny declining? Maybe so, but even in decline he strikes fear in the hearts of pitchers and his combined effect with Ortiz makes the offense go. When this tandem breaks up, they'll need two solid hitters to replace what Manny brings this lineup. His equals--Pujols and Miggy Cabrera are locked up by other teams.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Jayhawk Bill wrote a lot...

 

Some things never change...

 

 

I think that Bay would be an excellent option. I'm sure that through all this stuff with Santana the Sox are thinking about guys like Masterson, Bowden, Lowrie, Lester, etc., as possible pieces for a guy like Bay and hence they don't just throw everything at Santana.

 

What the hell happened to Bay last year though? He lost more than 2 RC/G off his career average... Even so, he has a career .890 OPS after his disappointing 07.

 

An outfield of Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, and JD Drew would be pretty formidable as well. It wouldn't be as explosive offensively as Manny, but Bay and Drew both have excellent plate discipline and make very difficult outs. I've liked Bay for a long time but again, what the hell happened?

 

First, Bay is a free agent after 2008, so he appears right now to be available as a potential free agent after Manny's contract year.

 

But what happened? Both his hitting and his fielding went down: that suggests that it's not PED withdrawal, where fielding is usually unaffected and occasionally bettered.

 

There's only one mention of injury, though, knee tendinitis in September. That's not when his production collapsed: that was late spring. Check this custom split for Bay:

 

First 56 games: .312/.382/.540

Last 89 games: .204/.291/.337

 

Bay's 2006 line was .286/.396/.532. The first 56 games fit. The last 89 look like Pokey Reese, not Jason Bay. One might blame the knee. Marc Normandin of BP is less kind:

 

Unless it’s down the middle, Bay can’t do much with it when it’s inside. He’s still hitting the ball in the center and outside parts of the plate though, which you can see reflected in the directional chart and hit charts above.

 

Bay's pull power is what made him such a great run producer; without that, he’s just like those players he has been compared to throughout his career. The league needs its Rusty Greers, Jeff Conines, and Bobby Higginsons, but the Pirates need the 2005 of Jason Bay, and it’s very likely that's something that has already been lost to history.

 

Strong words.

 

My take: Jason Bay suffered a knee injury that affected his fielding and his hitting. A sharp mid-season drop is almost invariably due to injury, not age. He'll be back, but he'll never be at the peak he was, I'd expect...but a guy hitting near where Bay was hitting before June 2007 is a very, very good batter. Bill James projects .276/.374/.498 for 2008 for Bay: that's still an above-average batting line for a left fielder.

 

 

***

 

Edit: For those who look to Manny's tiring out opposition pitchers as a component of his value, it should be noted that six of the other eight Boston regulars took more pitches per plate appearance than Manny did, and Manny took fewer pitches per plate appearance than he has since 2002 (as far back as I can figure out the stats). Even in a bad year for Manny, he's still near the middle of the pack in P/PA for MLB left fielders--it's just that Boston has an entire lineup of players who tire out pitchers.

 

A declining Manny is still a good hitter. He's an average MLB starting left fielder with his bat (eighth of 16 hitters by GPA among qualified left fielders). He's just not fearsome any more...just not a $20 million hitter, let alone a $20 million player once his defense is considered.

[Taliesin]

Still a "good hitter"...o.k. I'll refrain from spending time at your altar if you don't mind. We see things differently and that's alright.

 

222 26 94 83 5. That's a down year. Who was that and how much did he command in the offseason? How did Manny do in the playoffs again? When it's the only season that counts? A liability in Fenway at a defensive position in the outfield is negligible. He also plays that wall better than anyone I have seen. I don't have stats to back it up. Just my eyes. JHB do you EVER allow for intangibles? I wouldn't discount your research ...I'm sure you spend eons on it. This isn't chess. There are human factors involved. A certain symmetry ..a yin/yang phenomenon where 1 Jason Bay doesn't equate to 6 Manny's in the world of that lineup. I won't delve into the fact that Bay has been feasting off of inferior pitching and his downturn could be an anomaly or a sign of a quick decline by a shooting star.

 

I'm sure you could refute my argument w/ sabemetric precision. Was there a noticeable down slope in the past regular season. Of course. I'll take his noticeable decline for 20 million and the intangibles his brings to the lineup every at bat vs. ?. What would you say if he returns to the mean next year? I think he will. There are some things that are irreplaceable in life...and this time w/ Manny is one of them. 40 years from now people will remember. We never appreciate anything while it's happening.

 

There are intangibles...and everything doesn't fit into a neat, engineered box.

[a700hitter]

40 years from now people will remember. We never appreciate anything while it's happening.

I can remember Yaz being booed by the fans. Yes, Yaz, the one man wrecking crew of the Impossible Dream team and the last Triple Crown winner. There have been none in 40 years since. Never mind '67, Yaz was the one key player that helped transform the Red Six to perennial contenders from a second division team. RSN pays him homage today, but back then he got more negative press than Manny.

[rician blast]

I'm looking for a little clarification here...

 

t...but a guy hitting near where Bay was hitting before June 2007 is a very' date=' very good batter. Bill James projects .276/.374/.498 for 2008 for Bay: that's still an [b']above-average [/b]batting line for a left fielder.

 

A declining Manny is still a good hitter. He's an average MLB starting left fielder with his bat (eighth of 16 hitters by GPA among qualified left fielders).

 

Are you saying that Bay (above average) is better than Manny (average)? Not picking a fight here, as I know little about Bay, just curious. Thanks.

[Taliesin]

That's the way it's been in town

Ever since they tore the juke box down

Two bit piece don't buy no more

Not so much as it done before

 

And I say row, Jimmy, row

Gonna get there?

I don't know

Seems a common way to go

Get down, row, row, row

 

They booed Williams too. Altars of hypocrisy. Cried at the grave...spit on him while he wandered the earth. They are myriad.

[TheKilo]

Look, it's simple. If you can replace Manny with someone who doesn't cost as much but is a better, or comparable, all-around player, you do it.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I'm looking for a little clarification here...

 

 

 

 

 

Are you saying that Bay (above average) is better than Manny (average)? Not picking a fight here, as I know little about Bay, just curious. Thanks.

 

I think that the key difference may be the word "starting" in one of the two quotes.

 

Manny hit .296/.388/.493 last year, almost dead-average for starting left fielders. Bay's projected to hit .276/.374/.498--almost identical OPS--which is above-average for left fielders as a group...but it would be near average for starting left fielders.

 

Over the past three years, by UZR, Bay has been either three or four runs over MLB average per 150 games defensively in left field. If Bay and Manny hit the same, but Bay is 40+ runs better on defense, then it's no contest regarding which player would be better.

 

JHB do you EVER allow for intangibles?

 

I've learned not to...I get ridiculed for it.

 

I did a study regarding the 2004 season regarding Boston's winning percentage in games when Nomar was and wasn't in the dugout. Having Nomar present (whether on the DL or not) cost Boston about 100 points of winning percentage, IIRC. That's staggering. More to the point, it's statistically significant.

 

Replacing a .321 hitting shortstop with a guy who hit 82 OPS points less and who had a Range Factor only 27 points higher shouldn't have made a 100-point difference in winning percentage. Neither should have having Nomar away from the team in rehab instead of traveling with the team. But both cases, combined, were true, and it was, again, IIRC, statistically significant.

 

Nomar lovers despised the post. I saw the games--I saw the difference in "chemistry"--I quantified it. I was hated for doing so.

 

One could study the case of whether Boston is better or worse without Manny, and if stats predict the difference, but I don't think that those who claim intangible benefit would be influenced by such a study. I further suspect that folks who do believe in stats would dislike the study...making it a no-win proposition to research it.

 

Look, it's simple. If you can replace Manny with someone who doesn't cost as much but is a better, or comparable, all-around player, you do it.

 

Yup.

 

I think that where people are struggling with that, TheKilo, is with accepting that Manny's value is decreased quite as much as serious defensive metrics suggest by his inability to play left field well for three consecutive seasons.

[rician blast]

I think that the key difference may be the word "starting" in one of the two quotes.

 

Manny hit .296/.388/.493 last year, almost dead-average for starting left fielders. Bay's projected to hit .276/.374/.498--almost identical OPS--which is above-average for left fielders as a group...but it would be near average for starting left fielders.

 

Over the past three years, by UZR, Bay has been either three or four runs over MLB average per 150 games defensively in left field. If Bay and Manny hit the same, but Bay is 40+ runs better on defense, then it's no contest regarding which player would be better.

 

 

I think I can accept that statistically there are likely a number of LF...Bay being one of them...who would seem to be replacements for Manny, as long as your including defense in the argument. If we're looking at just hitting, that list probably goes down some, but there'd still be some guys (not saying available guys) who'd be equal or upgrades.

 

Couple of things on Manny from my perspective:

 

(1) I haven't double checked what the numbers say, but my recollection is at least 2 of the last three years he got off to less than Manny-esque starts. Over all numbers are fine, but the tough starts trouble me...I wonder if there is a year in the not-too-distant future where he does not overcome the tough start, ending at something like .280, 20 hrs, 80 RBIs...still productive, but not $20m-ish....however:

 

(2) I think theres something to be said for having been there, having had success on the playoff stage. Since its not my money, until Manny proves he's declining rapidly I think the sox ride that horse.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think I can accept that statistically there are likely a number of LF...Bay being one of them...who would seem to be replacements for Manny, as long as your including defense in the argument. If we're looking at just hitting, that list probably goes down some, but there'd still be some guys (not saying available guys) who'd be equal or upgrades.

 

Couple of things on Manny from my perspective:

 

(1) I haven't double checked what the numbers say, but my recollection is at least 2 of the last three years he got off to less than Manny-esque starts. Over all numbers are fine, but the tough starts trouble me...I wonder if there is a year in the not-too-distant future where he does not overcome the tough start, ending at something like .280, 28 hrs, 100 RBIs...still productive, but not $20m-ish....however:

 

(2) I think theres something to be said for having been there, having had success on the playoff stage. Since its not my money, until Manny proves he's declining rapidly I think the sox ride that horse.

 

Responding to your points:

 

1) I can't find a slow start for Bay...he's prone to June slumps, especially this past June. In any case, he won't earn $20 million per year...the point is that there are those recommending that Manny should be paid that much.

 

2) Most players do roughly as well in playoffs as they do in the regular season, level of competition considered. There are a few exceptions--Calvin Schiraldi comes to mind--but playoff experience offers little except the near-guarantee that a player who has previously thrived in October won't choke should he be there again.

 

But that "since it's not my money" point I'd strongly disagree with. The FO has demonstrated that their team payroll is going to closely approach or barely exceed the CBT threshold every season. Twenty million spent on any player is probably twenty million not spent on other players.

 

***

 

In any case, I'd misunderstood an earlier post that Bay was available as a 2008-2009 free agent. My bad--he's a 2009-2010 free agent. He'll make $5.75 million in 2008, and $7.5 million in 2009. He's available in trade, and the Pirates aren't asking for any outrageous price, but I haven't been suggesting ditching Manny, just not picking up the $20 million option.

 

Feel free to change the player used for comparison.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think I can accept that statistically there are likely a number of LF...Bay being one of them...who would seem to be replacements for Manny, as long as your including defense in the argument. If we're looking at just hitting, that list probably goes down some, but there'd still be some guys (not saying available guys) who'd be equal or upgrades.

 

Couple of things on Manny from my perspective:

 

(1) I haven't double checked what the numbers say, but my recollection is at least 2 of the last three years he got off to less than Manny-esque starts. Over all numbers are fine, but the tough starts trouble me...I wonder if there is a year in the not-too-distant future where he does not overcome the tough start, ending at something like .280, 28 hrs, 100 RBIs...still productive, but not $20m-ish....however:

 

(2) I think theres something to be said for having been there, having had success on the playoff stage. Since its not my money, until Manny proves he's declining rapidly I think the sox ride that horse.

 

 

Interesting Manny stats.

Last yr was Manny's first season under .900OPS since 1994, his first season in the bigs

Last yr was Manny's first season under 100RBI since 1997.

Last yr was Manny's first season under 22HR in his career.

Last yr was Manny's lowest walk total in a full season

Last yr was Manny's lowest SLG% of his career

 

All that and his season would still be considered pretty damn good compared to the league. You arent talking about needing Manny to be pretty damn good. Manny has been other worldly for the past 13 or so seasons. Manny dropping to such a career low was a huge reason why the sox offense had sustained spurts of suckitude, only this yr they had the pitching to plow through them. Once Manny finally got hot again, the offense was lights out.

 

The questions for next yr will be...

A. Can he stay healthy/want to play?

We all know he has had some sort of knee issue. Whether or not it is him just needing a break or not, who knows. Then the oblique pull, which I think is real since it was the exact mechanism that would typically cause an oblique pull that did it and you can see the grimace on his face when he did it. Regardless, with DH not being an option, how healthy can he remain?

 

B. Can he avoid the early season swoon to put up big numbers?

In 2006, he had a swoon, then went on to put up his best OPS since 2002.

In 2007, he had a swoon and then pulled his average up near .300 but didnt have the power

Is the real Manny a second half player or is this lack of being able to sustain a full season a sign of breakdown?

 

C. Can he dodge age for the next 3 yrs?

He is getting older. He has only played 130 and 133 games over the past 2 seasons, which is his #3 and #4 lowest game totals of his career (one of those other yrs he broke his hand). ANd those totals arent bad at all, but they are showing a decline from the ridiculous precedent he has set for himself. The swoons are starting to show that he may not have the stamina to last a full season, but his incredible eye, talent and work ethic are enough to make it through the swoon unphased. And he is getting older, mid 30s is typically when some players start slowing down.

 

But the true message is, who knows if he will. This upcoming season will be huge in determining what they do. If he comes out and puts up another .290-20-90-.880OPS season, they will decline his option as that will be two substandard yrs in a row for Manuel Aristides. If he reverts to his .310-40-140-1.050 precedent, then it is a no-brainer.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Of Manny's ten closest comparables per BR, only one had an OPS of over .975 for the rest of his career after age 35: Barry Bonds.

 

BR suggests that Manny has 3-4 years and 413 games remaining at a batting line of .262/.375/.454. I've gotta say that those numbers don't sound unreasonable.

 

There's one thing in Manny's favor: his last contract year, 2000 with the Guardians, was the best year of his career. He gained almost 50 OPS points over an MVP-caliber 1999 season. That suggests that Manny had the ability to "try harder," and that by improving some aspect of his lifestyle, in season or off-season, he could do better. 2008 is another contract year for Manny. I'm hoping that we see another 50-point (or better) jump in OPS, not another year of mid-30's decline.

[das11209]

Look' date=' it's simple. If you can replace Manny with someone who doesn't cost as much but is a better, or comparable, all-around player, you do it.[/quote']

 

Quite obvious - you replace anyone (Manny, Ortiz, Becket) if you get someone better, younger and cheaper. Easier said than done though.

[rician blast]

Responding to your points:

 

1) I can't find a slow start for Bay...he's prone to June slumps, especially this past June. In any case, he won't earn $20 million per year...the point is that there are those recommending that Manny should be paid that much.

 

I was talking about Manny. Like I said, I know little of Bay.

 

2) Most players do roughly as well in playoffs as they do in the regular season, level of competition considered. There are a few exceptions--Calvin Schiraldi comes to mind--but playoff experience offers little except the near-guarantee that a player who has previously thrived in October won't choke should he be there again.

 

I agree that players will tend to trend towards their "normal performance" over time in the playoffs. My gut feeling, though, is all other things being equal, I want the guy that has been there before. This is opinion...my preference if you will...I'll take Manny in the 2008 playoffs over Bay...not sure Bay has ever played in a playoff game.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Quite obvious - you replace anyone (Manny' date=' Ortiz, Becket) if you get someone better, younger and cheaper. Easier said than done though.[/quote']

 

From Soxfan#1's list:

 

Left fielders

Moises Alou (42)

Garret Anderson (37) - $14MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Milton Bradley (31)

Pat Burrell (32)

Carl Crawford (27) - $8.25MM club option for '09 with $2.5MM buyout

Adam Dunn (29)

Cliff Floyd (36) - $3MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout

Raul Ibanez (37)

Jacque Jones (34)

Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09

Craig Monroe (32)

Jay Payton (36)

Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09

Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09

Juan Rivera (30)

 

Center fielders

Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout

Jim Edmonds (39)

Jacque Jones (34)

Mark Kotsay (33)

 

Right fielders

Bobby Abreu (35)

Casey Blake (35)

Milton Bradley (31)

Brian Giles (38) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - $16.5MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout

Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Jacque Jones (34)

 

Let's thin that down, eliminating several of the lesser players, a couple whom either I or the FO don't like, and a few whose options will probably be picked up:

 

Left fielders

Milton Bradley (31)

Pat Burrell (32)

Carl Crawford (27) - $8.25MM club option for '09 with $2.5MM buyout

Adam Dunn (29)

Jacque Jones (34)

Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09

Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09

Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09

Juan Rivera (30)

 

Center fielders

Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout

Jacque Jones (34)

Mark Kotsay (33)

 

Right fielders

Bobby Abreu (35)

Milton Bradley (31)

Jacque Jones (34)

 

ANY of these other players are younger and cheaper than Manny at $20 million. How well did they hit in 2007?

 

Let's check VORP and VORPr for a few leading names (San Diego stats used for Bradley):

 

[table]Name | VORP | VORPr

Bradley | 19.0 | .350

Dunn | 45.5 | .312

Manny | 34.6 | .268

Crawford | 38.0 | .261

Burrell | 34.5 | .258

Abreu | 27.9 | .179

Jones | 7.6 | .066

[/table]

 

Remembering that Manny's defense costs Boston around .25 runs each game per UZR, here's the deal:

 

- Bradley's personality might not fit, but he looks to be way better than Manny.

- Dunn and Burrell are comparable hitters to Manny and, astoundingly, probably better fielders despite their defensive shortcomings.

- Crawford is a different hitter than Manny but comparable in hitting value, and his defense is much better.

- Abreu and Jacque Jones are worse hitters than Manny but their defense makes up for it.

 

Another option: Coco Crisp is a superb left fielder, and Jacoby Ellsbury can play CF pretty well. Drew, Ellsbury and Crisp are all under contract for 2009.

 

Let's see how Manny does in his contract year--but let's not kid ourselves about there being a shortage of talent for left field. One can be stuck for a good shortstop or catcher or center fielder, but left fielders are available.

 

*****

 

Good opinion, Rician Blast. Thanks.

[rician blast]

Let's see how Manny does in his contract year--but let's not kid ourselves about there being a shortage of talent for left field.

 

Agreed, and it may be what the Sox do with the salary difference (-$20m for Manny versus the incoming LF salary) that really frames the effectiveness of the strategy.

[ksushi]

Dunn compared to Mantle?

 

what?

 

I didn't say he was Mantle, but sure does have Mantle-esque power. If you've ever watched Dunn play for an extended period of time, he hits these streaks where its almost comical how hard he hits the ball.

[ORS]

If one defines power by distance of the farthest shot, well, when I was a kid Mantle allegedly had the longest home run in history (565 feet). I don't think that Dunn has hit one that far.

 

 

 

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/EricaRosenthal.shtml

Yeah, and a little further down that link there's a quote that the 565' was where it was found, not where it landed. Back then, it wasn't uncommon to physically hit the ball out of the park with much smaller bleachers.

 

Distances on HTO are measured to where it hits something. Dunn's best shot this year was on 8/17 in Milwaukees. From the link you can view the video file and see the path charted. It hit structure some 60+ feet in the air at about 460' from home plate. Don't think that thing would have gone 565?

 

http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2007_4654&type=hitter&sortm=true_dist&sort=desc