Chicago Cubs scouting report

[Gom]

Keith Law's scouting report. Enjoy.

 

Last winter's spending spree paid off for the Cubs, at least in the short term, although it took just about every penny of their $300 million spent to win the 83-plus games required to take the National League Central title. The piper may come soon to collect payment on those deals, but for now, the North Siders are in the dance.

 

The Cubs bring the most balanced team to the playoffs among the four NL participants, but they don't have any major area of strength. Playing in the majors' worst division, they posted the league's second-best ERA, but that reflects the terrible offenses their pitchers faced in nearly half their innings. Chicago's out-of-division ERA was 4.34, which is just a touch better than the overall NL average of 4.42. The Cubs' offense was also decidedly middle-of-the-road, finishing eighth in runs scored.

 

Strengths

The Cubs' middle relief corps has been a big part of the team's success this year, starting with the revelation of Carlos Marmol. At times, he has filled a multiple-inning relief role similar to Mariano Rivera in 1996. Marmol, a converted outfielder, has a pretty rough arm action that relegated him to relief work, but he features an outstanding fastball-slider combination and is effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Against right-handed batters, he'll utilize the run on his 92-93 mph fastball to keep the ball moving away from the hitter, and he'll throw his slider with more tilt to hit the inside corner or to sweep it down and away to make the hitter chase. Against left-handed batters, he runs his fastball in hard on their hands, and lifts his arm angle very slightly to get more depth on his breaking ball. Two caveats with Marmol: he can be wild, and he's been very lucky this year to give up just three home runs (given how flat his fastball is). He'll eventually have to make an adjustment when he gives up a few long balls.

 

Marmol is joined by several other relievers who've been effective despite mediocre control, notably Kerry Wood, who has shown flashes of his old stuff but can take 10 or 12 pitches in the game to get his fastball up to the 93-95 mph range. Once he's there he can pair it with a hard slider that breaks sharply down and away from right-handed batters, and a slowed-down version of the breaking ball that he uses a little more against lefties. The Cubs can also run righties Mike Wuertz (fastball-slider guy who's effective against hitters from both sides) and Bobby Howry (who pounds the strike zone but doesn't have an effective secondary pitch) out there in the middle innings to get the ball to Marmol.

 

How They'll Win

• Solid starting pitching handing leads to the strong middle relief corps, with Lou Piniella letting Carlos Marmol get six outs if need be.

 

• Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee push runs across on home runs.

 

• Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly both bring their A-games, with Zambrano mixing up his pitches a little more and throwing strikes while Lilly brings the good feel he shows in his best starts.

The Cubs are a solid defensive club as well; their lineup includes one of the best defensive first basemen in the game in Derrek Lee, and average or slightly above-average fielders at third base, shortstop (when it's Ryan Theriot) and left field. They've also been playing Jacque Jones in center field; he's the second-best defensive outfielder on the roster behind rookie Felix Pie, but since Pie didn't hit in a small trial earlier this year, he's not likely to be on the postseason roster. They've also upgraded behind the plate by benching Jason Kendall (who can no longer hit, run, catch, or throw) and playing Geovany Soto, who's hit everywhere he's played and is capable enough behind the plate.

 

Chicago's front three starters are solid, even if they don't have the top-of-the-rotation ace that Arizona and Philadelphia can boast. Carlos Zambrano is paid like an ace and is treated like an ace, but he's more of a durable innings-eater whose wildness and erratic fastball command hold his value down. Zambrano works with an old-school approach, establishing his 90-94 mph fastball early, dialing up and down as the situation requires (he'll touch 95 when he's going for a strikeout). His slider has good tilt and he'll use it against hitters on both sides, especially to put it under a lefty's hands, but he doesn't use it all that often, and his split-change only shows up a few times a game.

 

How They'll Lose

• An opposing pitcher with good command exploits the Cubs' impatience and keeps them behind in the count all day.

 

• Ryan Dempster coughs it up in the ninth by walking a batter or two and getting himself into a jam he can't get out of.

 

• The bad Carlos Zambrano (walking too many men and overusing his fastball) and/or the bad Ted Lilly (behind hitters, overusing an offspeed pitch he doesn't have that particular day) can put the Cubs out of a game early, overtaxing the bullpen as well.

Behind Zambrano are two guys who use their off-speed pitches all the time. Ted Lilly is a four-pitch lefty who, on good nights, will show an average fastball, plus curveball, plus changeup and an average slider. He's got a lot of deception in his delivery, and that combined with his willingness to throw any pitch makes it tough for hitters to adjust to him. His feel for his stuff isn't always good, however. So on some nights he'll only have one or two pitches working, or he won't have his usual average command -- easy to get away with when you're facing the Pirates or Astros in July, but not as much so when you're facing a playoff team in October. Rich Hill is a left-handed curveball specialist; he throws a sharp 12-to-6 breaking ball at 73-75 mph, but cuts it a little to get some slider-like tilt up near 80 mph. His fastball touches average at 87-92 but has zero downhill plane, and he doesn't have the command to get away with it in the upper half of the zone, meaning he's very prone to the long ball. Because of his out-pitch curve and his plus control, Hill has been able to work around the home runs.

 

Weaknesses

The Cubs' hitters do not take pitches, do not walk and don't get on base enough. Only Lee has plus plate discipline, working the count and trying to get to a pitch he can drive. Alfonso Soriano, Jones and Craig Monroe are all up there to take their hacks, while Theriot seems to be guessing -- and guessing wrong -- in most of his at-bats. Mark DeRosa is second on the team in walks, but he's always looking fastball and can be beaten by a pitcher who comes hard in and then expands the zone with off-speed stuff. Their two most patient hitters after Lee are Cliff Floyd, who can barely run or play defense, and Matt Murton, who has been in manager Lou Piniella's doghouse for being too patient, too young or too redheaded.

 

Lee, meanwhile, has his own troubles. In a normal season he's one of the five best hitters in the league, but until September of this year, his power wasn't anywhere near what he's capable of showing. He's squaring balls up just like he usually does, but Lee wasn't driving the ball as recently as the final week of August. It might have been the lingering effects of last year's broken wrist, but if his seven-homer September is just a small sample size fluke, then the most dangerous hitter in Chicago's lineup will be somewhat neutralized. In fact, the team as a whole hasn't hit for the kind of home run power it was expected to -- the Cubs have hit fewer homers than any other NL playoff team -- and only Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Lee have plus power in this lineup.

 

Question Marks

• With little patience and not much power in their lineup, can the Cubs score enough runs against better playoff pitching to win?

 

• Will the Cubs actually let Jason Marquis start a pivotal game in the playoffs? And if so, is Lou Piniella prepared to show a very quick hook and let the bullpen try to save the game?

 

• Speaking of quick hooks, how much rope will Piniella give Ryan Dempster to hang the Cubs?

As good as the Cubs' middle relief staff is, Ryan Dempster has the potential to mess it all up in the ninth inning. It's not a question of stuff -- Dempster will show a solid-average fastball and a plus slider -- but his control is below average, not exactly what you want in a guy who's handed one-run leads with three outs to go. After all these years in the majors, he's still just a thrower with limited feel for pitching and has too much of a tendency to put men on base. Against better lineups in the playoffs, he's going to cause some heartburn.

 

The Cubs are also reaching a bit in putting their faith in Jason Marquis in the fourth spot in their playoff rotation. Marquis started off well this year, but has reverted to form, with a 5.31 ERA since June 1. They don't have a great alternative -- Sean Marshall has fringy stuff and Steve Trachsel is awful -- but using Marquis in a potential elimination game in the Division Series is a huge risk.