Now the fun begins

[jacksonianmarch]

Going into this off-season, there were three power hitters on the tips of everyone's tongue. Sheffield, Soriano, and Lee. Sheff gets dealt for future to Detroit, Soriano goes to the cubbies and Lee goes to the stros.

 

Now the fun begins. Texas, Boston, Baltimore, Anaheim, SF, LA, and many others came into this offseason with a plan to get more powerful. Now the big guys are gone and the biggest of the big is too roided out for anyone on the east coast to care (Bonds). Now teams are going to have to get creative. Let's take a look at the availibility of some power players.

 

"Disclaimer!! I usually post about both the yankees and the red sox, but since the yankees are looking only for a defensive RH hitting 1b they will not really count in this post, all speculation will be from a red sox vantagepoint"

 

Manny Ramirez: The enigmatic slugger is going to be 35 early next season. He has had a .950 OPS for 9 consecutive seasons now, but his antics are mounting and last seasons 130 games was his second lowest in his boston tenure. Yet he never really came up with a solid excuse for missing 32 games. He takes days off, daydreams, and sometimes seems like he cares not, but the guy can absolutely mash. And at 18 mil for the next 2 yrs, he is now a bargain with the ridiculous signings of Soriano and Lee, two players who are far inferior to Manuel Aristides Ramirez. Now the question I always ask someone when they post a rumor is what will the team be looking for and can the other team afford it. The Red Sox will need another big bat in return as well as relief help for a horrible bullpen. There have been rumors of a three way that would fit the bill with Helton and Otsuka coming to Boston, but that is a lot of balls in the air and may be too tough to figure out. If he is traded, he will need to approve the deal and will likely ask for at least one of his 2 20mil option years to be picked up.

 

Todd Helton: A career 1.023 OPS player, Todd Helton is not just an offensive juggernaut, but he is definitely a solid defensive 1b as well. There is only one problem. He has hit only 2 more HRs in the past 2 seasons combined than he did in 2004. Last yrs 15 was a career low in Colorado no less. But for the 5th consecutive yr he walked more than he K'd, which is good, but he also posted a career low BA of .302. A continuous slide would be especially costly since Helton is signed for 5 more yrs at a grand total of 85.5mil. which will take him through his 38th birthday. This is a short term fix that could cost a lot in the long term.

 

Mike Sweeney: Wanna take a gamble? Last season Mike Sweeney was limited to 217AB's due to chronic back issues. The yr before he hit .300 with 21HRs and 83RBI for the putrid Royals. His injury issues have limited him to DH duties so he would likely not be the best option for the sox, but would adding offense be worth the risk on defense (assuming Papi plays 1st, no way fragile mike could last the season over there)? We shall see. The one good thing about Mike Sweeney is that he is signed for only one yr at 11mil and will be 34 during the yr, which is not terribly old. He does have a limited no trade and I am not sure if Boston is on the list, but it may be a last ditch effort kind of thing to try and nab him. 11mil for the potential to have a .300BA with 20+HR and 100+RBI in fenway may be very tempting should Manny be traded. The Royals will probably enjoy the simple cap relief his deal would take, so long as he gives it his ok, he could be dealt.

 

Vernon Wells: Talk about the prize of all prizes. He will be 28 next season and is going into his final yr being controlled in Toronto. He wants to be a free agent as many teams (Boston, Texas and NYY after Abreu leaves would be included) would be interested. With the recent outrageous contract being doled out, Wells figures to have Beltran's deal be his starting point. Last season he hit .303 with 32HR and 106RBI to go along with 17 SBs for a team that did not run all that much. He is widely considered the AL's 2nd best defensive CFer behind Torii Hunter as well. He would be astronomically hard to trade for right now seeing as the Jays want to resign him, and with the sox being in the same division, it will just be harder. But come the deadline, this guy's price may come down so long as the yankees and sox do a good job of keeping the Jays out of contention. The Jays will likely ask for the moon. Papelbon will likely be asked for, and the jays would likely have to settle for something lesser than that. Likely a package of Pena, Ellsbury, Hansen, B/B/B or something huge like this will need to be done. Does theo want to rape his farm system? We'll see how desperate boy wonder gets if the sox season starts going into the shitter. Expect theo to want to negotiate before finalizing any deals if one can even come to fruition.

 

Joe Crede: He picked a damn good time to have a career yr. Joe Crede hit .283 with 30HR and 94 RBI from the right side last yr in Chicago. The guy has had escalating power totals for the past 4 yrs, so expect him to continue to rise. And for his services, he has been placed on the block. He has 3.124yrs of service, giving him at least 3 more yrs of ownage by the white sox. BUT, the white sox have arguably the 2nd best 3b prospect in baseball (behind Alex Gordon) in Josh Fields. Expect the pale hose to unload him now, before arbitration takes him into 8 figures. As shown by the sox insistence on labding Crawford, the white sox are looking for speed to complement Ozzie Guillen's aggressive style. A package centered around Coco Crisp may be enough to pry Crede loose and add a 30 HR bat to fenway, where that bat could really become dangerous. One other thing, his glove is just as good as Lowell's, so obtaining him will help significantly.

 

Raul Ibanez: His name has appeared all over the trade rumors section of baseball ever since he left KC to sign in SEA. Check out his line from last yr, a line that had some people saying he should be in the running for MVP. .289 33HR 123RBI. Plus, he has averaged 161 games played over the past 2 seasons meaning he is durable. The problem is, he will turn 35 midway through next season and he is cheap (5.5 mil a yr until 2008) How is that a problem? The sheer enjoyment of cap relief will not be enough to pry him away. The Mariners came into this offseason with hopes to become a contender in the ALW. But they lost out on some big FA power bats and they likely will not land the top starters in the game. I am sorry, but not many pitchers want to play in an outdoor stadium in the rainy northwest. The Mariners need pitching. With the departure of Gil Meche, the Mariners will have Piniero, Felix, and Washburn captaining their rotation with a bunch of newbs and retreads likely filling out the rest. Since they couldnt land the big slugger that they need, they will likely look to pawn off useful parts and this is where they will start. A couple pitching prospects or a pitching prospect and Wily Mo could pry this one loose.

 

Richie Sexson: Richie Sexson is 31 yrs old and is signed through 2008 for 14 mil a season. He is a good defensive 1b and a huge power threat. Richie rebounded from a putrid start to have a very strong yr. He hit .264 with 34HR and 107 RBI. Add to that his penchant for walking (and K'ing" and this guy could be a huge fit in Fenway. He is still young, not terribly expensive, good around the bag, a huge right handed power bat, and even better, available. As noted above, the M's are likely looking for young power in return as well as pitching. One of the three B's and Wily Mo may get it done so long as the sox are not averse to picking up the entire check.

 

Andruw Jones: Another big fish that will hit the market. Jones will be 30 at the beginning of the 07 season. He hit 92HRs in the past 2 seasons combined and he is the best defensive CFer in the NL by leaps and bounds. He will earn 13.5mil next season and then will be a FA. He is a 10-5 player, so he has a complete no-trade as well, but if he gets the big money, he'll fly. He is represented by Boras, so you can expect he would get Beltran++ money after next yr. Hold on tight for this one. The starting point would likely be Papelbon as Wells' was, but that wont do. An assortment of those young pitching prospects will be big if the sox want to get him, as the Braves are a little thin in rotation.

 

Adam Dunn: A FA after 2007 (he has an option that goes away if he is dealt), Adam Dunn is a flat out beast. When I said that any lefty who will have success in Fenway would need gorilla power or be able to hit the other way, Dunn is who I had in mind for gorilla power. This guy is huge. He has hit 40 or more HRs 3 yrs in a row (the only guy with that streak still intact btw). But he K's an exorbitant amount and his BA has been slipping. People say that he lacks motivation, but that may be just because his teams really have no shot at anything since he plays in Cincy (except this last yr which was his worst yr, go figure). The reds have some bullpen issues with their closer being out for the yr, but as we all know, bullpen in the NL is all about stuff while BP in the AL is about stuff and location. A package with Coco and Hansen to start could probably get this done, but the sox may need to add Lowell and pay his costs as well to make this happen. This is one of my sure fire predictions. This guy will be traded by the deadline this yr, most likely by opening day. Hold onto your hats.

 

Other guys will come available and as always, there are plenty of surprises, but that is the list that I could come up with off the top of my head of guys who will be available. Of the above, I think Sexson, Ibanez, Dunn, and Crede are the most likely to get moved. If Manny does get dealt, expect him to be the first domino of a long string of power moves. Didnt I say this is when the fun starts? It is November 24th, a good 2 weeks prior to the start of the winter meetings and the best bats have already signed. Stay tuned.

[SCM33]

ugh....im tired of hearing about Theo being creative.

 

Manny Ramirez is not going anywhere. Its pointless to talk about it everyday.

 

Todd Helton played his whole career at Coors. I would not call anyone who plays there an "offensive juggernaut. Walker was a good player, but not the same when he left, and certainly not the same before he got there http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/walkela01.shtml. Same with Bichette http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bicheda01.shtml Same with Ellis Burks http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burksel01.shtml, and the same really with Galarraga http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/galaran01.shtml. Same with Vinny Castilla http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/castivi02.shtmlBig cat could always hit, but discovered mysterious power in his years there. I don't think anyone who plays in Coors can be predicted outside of the friendly park. Not to mention he makes a pretty penny, and will look for more soon....and we dont even know how he will perform outside of Colorado.

 

Mike Sweeney has nothing left, and can't play 1B anymore anyway. He played exactly 0 games and 0 innings at 1B last season.

 

Vernon Wells: Carlos Lee just got 6 years, 100 million. I cant imagine what it would take to not only acquire.....but hold on to Vernon Wells. Plus, I cant imagine the Jays dealing him anyway since they probably feel they have just as good of a chance as anyone on opening day....AND the Sox are in the same division.

 

Crede: Had a career year last year, Mike Lowell has a longer track record. They both play good defense. Crede has zero on base skills. All or nothing hitter. Id rather stick with Mike Lowell than Crede.

 

Ibanez: Unless he learns to play RF he has no value here, because Manny Ramirez is not going anywhere. I dont think the former 1B is capable of playing RF at the Fens. I do like the suggestion though, he is pretty solid. Actually hes very solid.

 

Sexson: I dont like him very much, never have. I think we could just as much out of WMP because they are similar hitters.

 

Andruw Jones: Ive always liked him, although I always thought he was an overrated offensive player. He doesnt hit much for average, hes average in terms of OBP, hes got a pretty good career OPS, we all know about his defense. Again though.....Jones is a lot better than Lee, and Lee just got 6 years 100 million dollars. We all sit here and bitch about Manny's contract and cant wait to get rid of it, so why take on another one?

 

Dunn: We all know about his power. Very good on base skills. Strikes out a ton (averages 183 per year) and plays TERRIBLE defense, and i mean Terrible. .968 career fielding percentage for a LF which is pitiful including 12 errors and a .960 clip last season. We all complain about WMP (.965 in RF) but WMP plays a solid CF (.988).

 

Overall, I wouldnt like many of those options. Ibanez is solid, but again Manny is not going anywhere. Maybe Ibanez can go back to 1B? Helton's track record suggests a positive but I wonder how much Coors inflated him. Sweeney...no, Jones and Wells will cost a fortune and we have a cheap Coco and WMP right now. Sexson and Dunn both scare me and I think we are better with Lowell than Crede.

 

Your ideas make some sense, but there are too many question marks as well.

 

I dont think the OF changes much. It will be Manny, Coco, and WMP until WMP proves otherwise. I like the idea of Ibanez coming here to maybe play 1B, or Helton if COL eats some of that contract...assuming Helton will be the same Helton.

 

-SCM33

 

 

Edit: Added Vinny Castilla to the COL list.

[example1]

Andruw Jones: Ive always liked him, although I always thought he was an overrated offensive player. He doesnt hit much for average, hes average in terms of OBP, hes got a pretty good career OPS, we all know about his defense. Again though.....Jones is a lot better than Lee, and Lee just got 6 years 100 million dollars. We all sit here and bitch about Manny's contract and cant wait to get rid of it, so why take on another one?

-SCM33

 

I have to say, your analasys seems a little off to me. All your player analysis was good, but just because there is some prevailing tendency toward overpaying for players does not mean the Sox should just hang up their checkbooks for the offseason or next few years. The fact is that if Lee is getting his 16+ million a season, then yes, Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells would get 18m or so. So what? It seems to me that the Sox should be one of the teams that could pay that for a player of Wells' or Jones' caliber. To me it just means that other teams will be forced to pay a lot, not that the Sox should stop spending. The Sox have had to pay alot for a bunch of players over the years and now will be no different.

[jacksonianmarch]

yeah they do. If you dont pay up in salary, you will pay up in the loss column.

[SCM33]

I would rather see it spent on arms than .267 career hitters. After Lee and Soriano Jones will demand close to 20 million per year. Dont think he wont either, because somebody will pay him.

 

 

You know whats sad? I had a talk with my grandfather the other day and its truly sickening. He played minor league ball with Pittsburgh before he was drafted in the Korean war. I asked him "How much money did you make?" "What was your batting average?" "How many homeruns did you hit?" You know what he says? That stuff wasn't important back then.

All that talk about the elder members of RedSox nation finally dying with a smile on their face is ********, because people who played the game like my grandfather didnt give a s*** because baseball is not baseball anymore, certainly not when a .267 career hitter will demand over 15 million and probably get it.

 

 

Sorry for the rant, if it came down to it I would take Wells over Jones any day of the week but no ballplayer is worth that money. I can understand 10 million a year, although thats still sickening while I bust my ass in law enforcement to make 45,000 f***in dollars. 20 million to play a game is ridiculous. Like HOF Bob Lemon once said, "Baseball is a kid's game that grownups only tend to screw up."

 

So much for the market coming down...

[jacksonianmarch]

it is big business, plain and simple. I'd rather the players get our money than the greedy execs who run the business.

[Fried Neckbones]

Try being a social worker and making $32:thumbdown .

 

Seriously, though, I totally agree about salaries, and about it being a big business. Of course it is. We all know that. But we can all agree that salaries and free agent demands are getting out of control. In the late 80's, the A's became the first team to average $1 million per player. That was less than 20 years ago.

 

Read an interesting article, I think on mlb.com, about how GM's are getting less willing to pay these ridiculous contracts through free agency and are starting to look to the good ol' fashioned MLB for MLB trade again. Personally, I don't think that free agency will wither up and die, but I also think that trades of the sort that we are talking about here (big bats for MLB ready prospects) are going to become more common, especially this year.

 

All that being said, I wouldn't mind seeing either Mariner in Boston. Both are solid players, good clubhouse guys. Both could play 1b and let Youk slide back to 3b. Helton frightens me, humidors aside. Trading for Wells or Jones is a bad idea right now - you'll never hold on to them. Dunn - if you bitch about WMP and his k's and awful d, why would you want an older, whiter version of that? Crede would be a nice addition, I think. I could see him having success in Fenway.

 

I still think Manny is staying, though. Which would leave Lowell, WMP, and young arms as trade bait. I honestly can't see those guys landing Raul, Richie, or Joe.

 

Nice post, jacksonian.