Run Differential

[TheRivernator]

Sorry, I posted this in the cleveland game thread, but I was hoping it could spark some debate, which is, btw, why we are all here.

 

All of these points lead to one thing. It is still early for both teams. I think we can now see that those of you pointing towards the yankee demise because of a poor start were premature, and those of us pointing towards the sox demise are likely premature as well. The only thing that I will point out before I go for my run is this....

 

Last yr at this point, the sox were 11-10, which was an ok start, but they were +24 in run differential meaning that they were winning by large margins and losing close game. It was only a matter of time before they started winning a lot of games, and that is in fact what happened as they started to win the close ones and continued to win going away in others. This yr, they are -9 in run differential and at 13-9 in the standings. This means that the games that they win are close and the games that they lose are not. Here is the significance of that stat, and mind you the sox have not played the toughest of schedules, mind you it isnt the easiest of schedules either. The point is that last yr, only 2 teams finished the season with a minus run differential and had winning records, and those 2 teams were Fla and SD, and they were a total of 6 games over .500. On the flip side, only 2 sub .500 teams had a + run differential and those teams were Tor and Texas, and they were a total of 6 games below .500. Now take a look at the yankees, they are +44 in run differential yet are only 11-9. This means that they are losing close games and winning blowouts, they have been in every game for the most part. This trend means that they will likely have a successful season if they keep this up as they will start to win some of the close ones and will continue to win the games that they score a ton of runs.

 

My point is, run differential is a good stat to follow, and if the trend continues to where the sox cannot step on the throat in their victories (ie they cannot take a 2 run game and turn it into a blowout like they did in the past) yet continue to lose big games (+5 run diff), the tides will turn. Over the long haul, close games typically even out with the better teams winning about 50-60% of their 1-2 run games. The games that do not even out are the 5+ run games and those are dependent on offense and pitching and that is where the better teams make their hay. Right now the sox dont have a good mix as the offense has struggled and the burden is on the pitching. I'll tell you right now, relying on your pitching to carry you through the regular season is not as money as it is in the postseason. You need the offense to ease the burden and lessen the load on the relievers as well as the starters. As it is, the sox are 22 games deep and Papelbon is on pace for an 80IP season as a closer, that is way too much. Foulke is on pace for a near 100IP season. Also, starters typically start the yr strong and then hit the wall as the season goes on. Then they regain their edge for the home stretch. If your pen is already taxed going into April, which the numbers indicate, you are setting yourselves up for failure once the starters start to show a little wear.

 

Basically, your offense has not lessened the load on the pitching and the pitching can only carry you so far this early in the regular season. One man returning isnt going to do it either. You need the sox offenses of yesteryear and before in order to lessen the pitching burden. As it is, the sox are not playing like a team destined for the playoffs, but this is their first rough patch in their defense. It will be interesting who starts them on their next big winning streak, if it is the offense or the pitching. If it is the latter solely responsible for your next stretch of winning, then there will be issues. TB is this weekend, now if the chance for your O to make their hay.....

[kreinbihl34]

Shut up I really don't care about run differential. We are winning case and point until you pass us in the standing or even win a series against Schill, Beckett, and Wake shut up. We can win all the close games we want because they are still wins. Teams don't always end up with only winning 60% of their one run games.

[TheRivernator]

okay, nice argument. Do any smart posters want to chime in one this point and not my alignment. Where is ksush and ORS??

[Sox Fan on Cape]

Although, your math is correct to this point, and you did point out its early in the season, the extention of your premiss is invalid. The basis assumes that every thing remains static. We all know that this will not happen ( for either the Sox or the Yanks ). This is because there will be returns of injured players, call-ups, and trades. Not to mention a small sample size.

[TheRivernator]

Although, your math is correct to this point, and you did point out its early in the season, the extention of your premiss is invalid. The basis assumes that every thing remains static. We all know that this will not happen ( for either the Sox or the Yanks ). This is because there will be returns of injured players, call-ups, and trades. Not to mention a small sample size.

 

 

I understand your point, but the only time a negative run differential is valid is if your team is a losing team. Your team is a winning team to this point, even though they hit a little rough patch. The point is, when they are winning, they are winning close. When they are losing, they are losing big. Winning games that you had no business winning is how you get out of losing streaks and bring your team together (you'll remember the arod vtek game that the sox really had no business winning, but they did and it sparked their hot streak). If you cannot even be in games that you are losing because your offense cannot keep up and your pitching lets things get out of hand, that cannot happen. I know it is a small sample size, only 12% of the season, but if this continues, then the sox will likely be a close to .500 team as history indicates.

[kreinbihl34]

Ok fine you want an response that was thought out and not from the go. This is early in the season. We have guys getting fitting in their roles, Loretta, Pena. We also have a major key in our offense down. This will help us improve alot. BUT this team is built around pitching for the first time in along time. Pitching can carry us into the playoffs. The offense will come around and be about 5-10th in the league and our pitching will be near the top. Pitching is what your build your team around not offense. This will be the Yankee's achilles heel come mid to late season, even playoffs... if they make it.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

I understand your point, but the only time a negative run differential is valid is if your team is a losing team. Your team is a winning team to this point, even though they hit a little rough patch. The point is, when they are winning, they are winning close. When they are losing, they are losing big. Winning games that you had no business winning is how you get out of losing streaks and bring your team together (you'll remember the arod vtek game that the sox really had no business winning, but they did and it sparked their hot streak). If you cannot even be in games that you are losing because your offense cannot keep up and your pitching lets things get out of hand, that cannot happen. I know it is a small sample size, only 12% of the season, but if this continues, then the sox will likely be a close to .500 team as history indicates.

That's a valid point. However, as you pointed out, a team can get hot. Part of that is chemistry, coincidence, luck call it whatever. We've been without our CF / lead-off man. As you know that is a very important position ( otherwise the Yanks wouldn't have paid what they did for Damon ). Manny wasn't hitting for crap. Which means opposing teams could screw around with Papi. The combination of these factors ( and more ) has led to a weak bottom third of the batting order and minimal production from the middle. This will not continue, adjustments will be made. The same thing can be said about the Yankees. There is no doubt that problems and flaws with either team will be adressed.

[TheRivernator]

Ok fine you want an response that was thought out and not from the go. This is early in the season. We have guys getting fitting in their roles, Loretta, Pena. We also have a major key in our offense down. This will help us improve alot. BUT this team is built around pitching for the first time in along time. Pitching can carry us into the playoffs. The offense will come around and be about 5-10th in the league and our pitching will be near the top. Pitching is what your build your team around not offense. This will be the Yankee's achilles heel come mid to late season, even playoffs... if they make it.

 

I understand the "getting the guys into roles" bit, but the fact is, you have 8 of your 9 starters in your lineup which is better than most of the teams in the bigs right now.

 

As far as stating that your offense will improve magically and our pitching is horrible, that is such a blatant homer call that it isnt even funny. You think your team as it stands, 22nd in the league in offense will turn around with the addition of one player? Also, what do you have to say about the yankee's lower ERA in the rotation and the pen?

 

Also, you do build your team around pitching, I agree, but your bullpen and your offense get you to the playoffs and your starting rotation win in the playoffs. As it is, the sox offense has been severely downgraded from last yr. Lowell is worse than Mueller, Crisp (to this point because of lack of durability) is worse than Damon, Loretta is worse than Graf, AGon is much worse than Renteria offensively, Vtek is not at top notch and remember he is a catcher who will only get worse as the season progresses. Brushing over it with the broad stroke that you will turn it around and jump 17 spots in league ranking is homeresque.....

[TheRivernator]

That's a valid point. However, as you pointed out, a team can get hot. Part of that is chemistry, coincidence, luck call it whatever. We've been without our CF / lead-off man. As you know that is a very important position ( otherwise the Yanks wouldn't have paid what they did for Damon ). Manny wasn't hitting for crap. Which means opposing teams could screw around with Papi. The combination of these factors ( and more ) has led to a weak bottom third of the batting order and minimal production from the middle. This will not continue, adjustments will be made. The same thing can be said about the Yankees. There is no doubt that problems and flaws with either team will be adressed.

 

 

I understand the Coco argument, but he is only a part of the puzzle. And another thing, I harped on how Coco grew up in a pressure-less environment in Cleveland and had the knock of wilting under pressure over there (Cleveland fans mostly, maybe they were mad, whatever). Point is, if he is viewed as the team's sole reason for not playing well, and he returns off an extended injury leave and he does not hit right away, he will be crucified in the papers. That Boston kind of pressure even got on Boomer's nerves and that guy is tough as nails with the media. My point is, the sox nation has nailed its offensive hopes to this kid, and if he struggles in his return, he may take a renteria-esque nosedive and never be the same. You better hope that the sox O turns it on before he arrives so he becomes a welcome addition and not a messiah. That being said, how can a team that is so middle heavy in their lineup, generate more runs if their bottom and top (at least the 2 hitter) cannot hit period. Coco is not the entire piece of the puzzle, the sox offense as a whole needs to come together. It is an interesting mix that theo added this yr. He picked up 3 players who came off career worst yrs and so far, none have reverted to their past glories. They have to in order for the sox to return to offensive prowess....

[ksushi]

okay, nice argument. Do any smart posters want to chime in one this point and not my alignment. Where is ksush and ORS??

 

Well, I was at my own baseball game. To be honest, I'm never impressed with these stats. Honestly. I never use them in my favor, I never pay any credit to them when they go against me. I believe that the Red Sox offense has been lagging. I do not believe this will become a trend. I believe the Red Sox pitching has been good, and I think that for Curt Schilling Beckett and Papelbon this is a trend. Wakefield will be streaky, Clement will at times be shaky and who knows what Foulke will do down the road. I do know that if our bullpen falters we have the chance to pick it up via the farm system. I think if our rotation falters, we are quite screwed.

 

I don't think that will happen though. I think the Red Sox are very good this year, but they are a different team than the Red Sox teams of the past 5 years. Their transitioning into a team that puts their foot on the throats of opponents in a different way. They get the 2 run lead and instead of widening the gap into a huge 8 run blow out, they are becoming the team that makes 2 runs seem like 8 with the kind of pitching they will have in the pen. Its just a change in baseball philosophy.

 

I think the Yankees are very good. I think they've got more problems than the Sox right now. Age being one. But the fact that they are the Yankees means that more likely than not it won't be a factor.

 

I'm bored of this bagging on our offense though. I am. I've got nothing left to say, honestly. Coco will come back and it will change the way both ends of our lineup approach the plate. Thats all I got. If Damon were out, sure the Yankees would still have incredible power, but they would lose their table setter as well which would definetly hurt. It hurts not having Coco just the same.

 

I don't see things getting worse. With our 1-3 in schill beckett and wake, I think we've got a chance to be very solid, Clement I still believe will have a good season, and we'll see what happens with our five starter. Be it Clemens or Papelbon, by june there will be someone dependable there.

 

Saying Coco is only part of the puzzle is another one of those ways you say "Yeah... but" and avoid something. Coco is a huge reason why our offense hasn't looked so hot and since thats pretty much the biggest short coming for the sox right now with Rudy Seanez being a close second, I think that its right now just one of those things that isn't worth crying about yet.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

I understand the Coco argument, but he is only a part of the puzzle. And another thing, I harped on how Coco grew up in a pressure-less environment in Cleveland and had the knock of wilting under pressure over there (Cleveland fans mostly, maybe they were mad, whatever). Point is, if he is viewed as the team's sole reason for not playing well, and he returns off an extended injury leave and he does not hit right away, he will be crucified in the papers. That Boston kind of pressure even got on Boomer's nerves and that guy is tough as nails with the media. My point is, the sox nation has nailed its offensive hopes to this kid, and if he struggles in his return, he may take a renteria-esque nosedive and never be the same. You better hope that the sox O turns it on before he arrives so he becomes a welcome addition and not a messiah. That being said, how can a team that is so middle heavy in their lineup, generate more runs if their bottom and top (at least the 2 hitter) cannot hit period. Coco is not the entire piece of the puzzle, the sox offense as a whole needs to come together. It is an interesting mix that theo added this yr. He picked up 3 players who came off career worst yrs and so far, none have reverted to their past glories. They have to in order for the sox to return to offensive prowess....

All valid points. Obviously, Coco has to come back and produce, but only time will tell. It's a gamble I hope he will. We both know that it takes a certain kind of player to be able to play for the Sox or the Yanks. The rewards are tremendous, but so is the criticism. It's the way it goes. But with Coco back that leaves us some flexibility to move Youk and Loretta. You're correct on the bottom 2/3 of the order ( it's almost like the NL ).

[Dana Kiecker]

There is no " magic" about it.

 

A 320 career hitter may drop 20 points but he wont hit 230 for the year.

 

All of these guys are under expectations, ( or should I say their actual real projected numbers for the year).

 

Im new here but is it common for the Yankee fan to call any of us out if we display any sort of favoritism to the Sox on a Sox based website?

[TheRivernator]

There is no " magic" about it.

 

A 320 career hitter may drop 20 points but he wont hit 230 for the year.

 

All of these guys are under expectations, ( or should I say their actual real projected numbers for the year).

 

Im new here but is it common for the Yankee fan to call any of us out if we display any sort of favoritism to the Sox on a Sox based website?

 

I wont call you out if you show favoritism. I'll call you out if you try to make a seemingly "unbiased" opinion that is clearly homer-esque. If you have "faith" then say so. I have no problem with that...

[Sox Fan on Cape]

There is no " magic" about it.

 

A 320 career hitter may drop 20 points but he wont hit 230 for the year.

 

All of these guys are under expectations, ( or should I say their actual real projected numbers for the year).

 

Im new here but is it common for the Yankee fan to call any of us out if we display any sort of favoritism to the Sox on a Sox based website?

That's what Yankee fans do. Just like we would / do. The thing is, Rivanator does it with a combination of logic and diatribe. Which is cool, debate the points. He doen't make it personal.

[TheRivernator]

That's what Yankee fans do. Just like we would / do. The thing is, Rivanator does it with a combination of logic and diatribe. Which is cool, debate the points. He doen't make it personal.

 

thanks buddy

[Sox Fan on Cape]

thanks buddy

The truth is what it is.

[ksushi]

thanks buddy

 

 

I just want you to know I totally agree with him. You take way too much crap just for being a yankee fan and I've sent some PM's along recently because of it so I hope it kind of stops. You're a good poster.

 

I hope my opinion isn't too homer-esque. I try even if it doesn't show.

[TheRivernator]

I just want you to know I totally agree with him. You take way too much crap just for being a yankee fan and I've sent some PM's along recently because of it so I hope it kind of stops. You're a good poster.

 

I hope my opinion isn't too homer-esque. I try even if it doesn't show.

 

we are all homers in our own right. For the most part, there are always 2 sides to any debate. We just always take opposite sides, nothing wrong with that eh?...

[MANNYHOF24]

Ok about the run defirental, I think our offense sucks, or a downgrade from last season, However our pitching is better in the Rotation, and especially our bullpen better with healthy Foulke and Dominant Paps. You can survive a close run differential if you have a great bullpen. I think the sox when its all said and done, will have a great bullpen, and make the playoffs.

[ORS]

Run differential, or Pythagorean Record, is a useful, but most statisticians say you need around 100+ games for it to start having meaning. It's rather convienent that you bring it up when the Sox just dipped into negative numbers for the first time following a 15-3 drubbing. Here's an idea of why it isn't that meaningful yet, the Yankees were 11-19 with a -21 run differential last year on May 6. If the Sox are still over .500 with a negative run diff come post-ASG, then I'll start to worry about the stretch run.

[TheRivernator]

Run differential, or Pythagorean Record, is a useful, but most statisticians say you need around 100+ games for it to start having meaning. It's rather convienent that you bring it up when the Sox just dipped into negative numbers for the first time following a 15-3 drubbing. Here's an idea of why it isn't that meaningful yet, the Yankees were 11-19 with a -21 run differential last year on May 6. If the Sox are still over .500 with a negative run diff come post-ASG, then I'll start to worry about the stretch run.

 

I can buy that...

[TheRivernator]

-12 now for the yr. The sox should have hit Fossum, they had the men on base, AND Fossum is not a good pitcher. Sometimes you face pitchers who are so good that you may get guys on base, but you cannot bring them home. That was the case in the yankee game yesterday. The Yankee announcers were saying that Halladay had a poor game and the yanks were not taking advantage of it. I say BS to that, we had ZERO hard hit balls and only excuse me hits fell. He dominated us because he has, as a few MLB players have said, the best stuff in the game. Fossum, not so much. Clement actually bared down late and kept the sox in the game and they had their chances.....

[MANNYHOF24]

Hey Rivernator, I couldnt find Run Deferential stats, just wondering if you could update them through May 18th?

 

Thanks

[ORS]

Hey Rivernator, I couldnt find Run Deferential stats, just wondering if you could update them through May 18th?

 

Thanks

Sox +25

Yanks +50

 

If you go to mlb.com and click on the Standings link on the top toolbar, then you can get them from the standings page. You will see the following categories: W, L, PCT, GB, L-10, STREAK, HOME, ROAD, LAST GAME, NEXT GAME. There is a series of bullets with the ones displayed shaded in gray, and others that are availalbe not shaded in. Click on RS and RA to see the runs scored and runs against. Other options include: Elimination #, vs. East, vs. Central, vs. West, Interleague, vs. RHP, vs. LHP, Extra Innings Record, 1-Run Game Record, Expected W/L (Pythagorean Record).

[MANNYHOF24]

Sox +25

Yanks +50

 

If you go to mlb.com and click on the Standings link on the top toolbar, then you can get them from the standings page. You will see the following categories: W, L, PCT, GB, L-10, STREAK, HOME, ROAD, LAST GAME, NEXT GAME. There is a series of bullets with the ones displayed shaded in gray, and others that are availalbe not shaded in. Click on RS and RA to see the runs scored and runs against. Other options include: Elimination #, vs. East, vs. Central, vs. West, Interleague, vs. RHP, vs. LHP, Extra Innings Record, 1-Run Game Record, Expected W/L (Pythagorean Record).

 

 

Thanks!, I love how when this Thread was started on like April 15th, Rivernator doomed our season because we had a negative run deferential