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scs1918

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    scs1918 reacted to Charlie Hoke for a blog entry, Vern Stephens - Red Sox shortstop - forgotten by the Hall of Fame   
    Who holds the single season record for RBIs for a shortstop? You may think it would be held by a Hall of Famer like Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks or Cal Ripken, or a recent retired star like Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, or Derek Jeter, but no, the record is held by Red Sox Vern Stephens and was set in 1949.
    That year, batting behind Ted Williams, Vern Stephens had 159 RBIs and it was the first of two consecutive years when Stephens tied for the league lead in RBIs. This RBI total was the highest in the major leagues for 50 years until Manny Ramirez surpassed it with 165 in 1999.
    From 1948 to 1949, Vern Stephens had three of highest RBI single season MLB totals for a shortstop. Only one other shortstop, Alex Rodriguez, has 3 seasons in the top ten and Alex was aided by the 162-game schedule. 
    Vern Stephens started his MLB career with the St Louis Browns, leading the league in RBIs in 1944 and the Browns to the pennant that year.  However, he would add more offensive and defensive accomplishments with the Red Sox.
    Top Single Season RBI totals by Shortstops


    A consistent offensive performer Vern played good defense as well, leading the league in assists 1947-1949, double plays in 1949 and fielding percentage in 1945. His advanced metrics also show that he was one of the top players at the time, with 6 seasons in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive WAR.
    Traded to the Red Sox before the 1948 season, Vern played 5 years for the Red Sox where he was paired with Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr, but the Sox could not do better than 2nd place twice during his time falling short by a single game in 1948 and 1949.
    Vern's production tailed off after he turned 30, finishing his career with stints with the St Louis Browns, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox. At 35 he was out of major league baseball and at the age of 48 he died of a heart attack.
    Based on Similarity Scores | Baseball-Reference.com, Vern's top 5 comparable players include 3 Hall of Famers and one not yet eligible to be elected as of 2025.
    Similar Batters to Vern Stephens 
    Bobby Doerr (890.7) Hall of Fame Tony Lazzeri (888.2) Hall of Fame Bret Boone (887.5) Chase Utley (879.2) Not yet Eligible as of 2025 Joe Gordon (870.1) Hall of Fame  
    Yrs WAR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+   Vern Stephens (1941-1955)                               15 Yrs 46.3 1720 6497 1001 1859 307 42 247 1174 25 22 692 685 .286 .355 .460 .815 119 .379 119   Bobby Doerr (1937-1951) (HOF)                               14 Yrs 51.3 1865 7093 1094 2042 381 89 223 1247 54 64 809 608 .288 .362 .461 .823 115 .377 116   Tony Lazzeri (1926-1939) (HOF)                               14 Yrs 47.6 1740 6297 986 1840 334 115 178 1194 148 82 869 864 .292 .380 .467 .846 121 .383 121   Brett Boone (1992-2005)                                 14 Yrs 22.8 1780 6683 927 1775 366 28 252 1021 94 53 552 1295 .266 .325 .442 .767 101 .342 101   Chase Utley (2013-2018) (Not yet eligible)                           16 Yrs 64.6 1937 6857 1103 1885 411 58 259 1025 154 22 724 1193 .275 .358 .465 .823 117 .368 120   Joe Gordon (1938-1950) (HOF)                               11 Yrs 55.6 1566 5707 914 1530 264 52 253 975 89 60 759 702 .268 .357 .466 .822 120 .372 118 Bill James, the famous baseball historian and analyst, had stated in his 1994 book, Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?, that the Hall of Fame may have erred by inducting only one half of the Yankees double play combination when the voters only elected shortstop Phil Rizzuto, but not second baseman Joe Gordon, and similarly for the Red Sox, when only second baseman Bobby Doerr was elected, but not shortstop Vern Stephens.. Likewise with the 2017 election of Tiger's shortstop Alan Trammell to the Hall of Fame, his infield teammate second baseman Lou Whitaker has also been neglected.
    Although on the one and only Pre-1943 Veterans Committee Baseball ballot in 2009, Stephens has not been considered since. On that same ballot in 2009, Joe Gordon was elected to the Hall of Fame to join his Yankee teammate Phil Rizzuto.
    Is it now time to consider Vern Stephens again for election to the Hall of Fame?
     
     
  2. Like
    scs1918 reacted to Charlie Hoke for a blog entry, Missing out or a Saving Grace   
    Missing out getting free agents Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber may be disappointing at first but a long-term saving grace for the Red Sox.
    Pete Alonso opted out of a 2-year $54 million contract with the Mets to sign a 5-year $155 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles as he enters his age 31 year.
    Entering free agency, Kyle Schwarber elected to stay with the Phillies on a 5-year $150 million contract entering his age 33 year.
    From Baseball-Reference.com, the most similar player to Pete Alonso is Khris Davis.

    Here are their stats through their age 30 seasons.
    Khris Davis: Standard Batting (2013-2018)
                                      Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 2013-2018 25-30 MIL,OAK 11.7 775 3058 2726 425 676 143 8 193 497 18 5 261 814 .248 .320 .519 .839 126 .362 128 1414 81 per Season 25-30 MIL,OAK 1.9 129 510 454 71 113 24 1 32 83 3 1 44 136 .248 .320 .519 .839 126 .362 128 236 14 per 162 gms 25-30 MIL,OAK 2.4 162 639 570 89 141 30 2 40 104 4 1 55 170 .248 .320 .519 .839 126 .362 128 296 17 Pete Alonso: Standard Batting (2019-2025)
                                      Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 2019-2025 24-30 NYM 23.3 1008 4316 3763 580 951 183 8 264 712 18 4 419 984 .253 .341 .516 .857 135 .367 135 1942 108 per Season 24-30 NYM 3.3 144 617 538 83 136 26 1 38 102 3 1 60 141 .253 .341 .516 .857 135 .367 135 277 15 per 162 gms 24-30 NYM 3.7 162 694 605 93 153 29 1 42 114 3 1 67 158 .253 .341 .516 .857 135 .367 135 312 17 From Age 31 onwards, Khris Davis only lasted three more years and hit only 28 more home runs.
    Khris Davis: Standard Batting (2019-2021)
                                      Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 2019-2021 31-33 OAK,TEX -0.9 205 746 668 81 144 21 1 28 93 0 0 67 203 .216 .291 .376 .667 81 .293 82 251 18 per Season 31-33 OAK,TEX -0.3 68 249 223 27 48 7 0 9 31 0 0 22 68 .216 .291 .376 .667 81 .293 82 84 6 per 162 gms 31-33 OAK,TEX -0.7 162 590 528 64 114 17 1 22 74 0 0 53 160 .216 .291 .376 .667 81 .293 82 198 14 Another cautionary tale for the Orioles might be their own Chris Davis who played from 2008 to 2020 and hit 241 home runs through his age 30 season and only 54 afterwards.

    How will Pete Alonso perform through his age 35 season?

    Kyle Schwarber entering his age 33 season has a career similar to Dave Kingman who was most known also for his home run power and low average. 
    Dave Kingman: Standard Batting (1971-1981)
                                    Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 1971-1981 22-32 CAL,CHC,NYM,NYY,SDP,SFG 16.1 1243 4666 4192 592 1011 166 23 292 779 71 42 388 1244 .241 .308 .501 .809 122 .367 121 2099 86 per Season 22-32 CAL,CHC,NYM,NYY,SDP,SFG 1.5 113 424 381 54 92 15 2 27 71 7 4 35 113 .241 .308 .501 .809 122 .367 121 191 8 per 162 gms 22-32 CAL,CHC,NYM,NYY,SDP,SFG 2.1 162 608 546 77 132 22 3 38 102 9 6 51 162 .241 .308 .501 .809 122 .367 121 274 11                                                   Kyle Schwarber: Standard Batting (2015-2025)
                                    Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 2015-2025 22-32 BOS,CHC,PHI,WSN 19.9 1291 5384 4544 800 1050 175 14 340 784 37 19 764 1527 .231 .346 .500 .846 127 .363 126 2273 53 per Season 22-32 BOS,CHC,PHI,WSN 1.8 117 490 413 73 96 16 1 31 71 3 2 70 139 .231 .346 .500 .846 127 .363 126 207 5 per 162 gms 22-32 BOS,CHC,PHI,WSN 2.5 162 676 570 100 132 22 2 43 98 5 2 96 192 .231 .346 .500 .846 127 .363 126 285 7 Dave Kingman played for 5 more years ending his career with 442 home runs.
    Dave Kingman: Standard Batting (1982-1986)
                              Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 1982-1986 33-37 NYM,OAK 1.3 698 2763 2485 309 564 74 2 150 431 14 7 220 572 .227 .290 .439 .730 104 .330 102 1092 53 per Season 33-37 NYM,OAK 0.3 140 553 497 62 113 15 0 30 86 3 1 44 114 .227 .290 .439 .730 104 .330 102 218 11 per 162 gms 33-37 NYM,OAK 0.3 162 641 577 72 131 17 1 35 100 3 2 51 133 .227 .290 .439 .730 104 .330 102 253 12                                                                                                       The Phillies also have the precedence of signing another powerful slugger, Ryan Howard, to a 5-year extension for $125 million after his age 31 season. Here's his performance through his age 32 season with 300 home runs. After age 32, Howard only hit 82 home runs in the final three years of his contract.
    Ryan Howard: Standard Batting (2004-2012)                                 Seasons Age Team WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rOBA Rbat+ TB GIDP 2004-2012 24-32 PHI 18.3 1098 4701 4054 661 1100 200 17 300 920 12 4 565 1306 .271 .364 .551 .915 135 .388 133 2234 82 per Season 24-32 PHI 2 122 522 450 73 122 22 2 33 102 1 0 63 145 .271 .364 .551 .915 135 .388 133 248 9 per 162 gms 24-32 PHI 2.7 162 694 598 98 162 30 3 44 136 2 1 83 193 .271 .364 .551 .915 135 .388 133 330 12                                                  
    With an average value of $30 to $31 million per year for a 1st baseman and designated hitter, the Orioles and Phillies are paying premium prices for two positions low on the defensive spectrum and where careers go to end. The home run hitting skills of Alonso and Schwarber are among the most perishable of skills with age.
    Combined with their historically low batting averages and high strikeout rates, it is unclear that both will continue to produce at high levels for the rest of their contracts.
    Long term contracts tend to become big liabilities in their later years as performance declines as it inevitably will with age.
    Even thought these contracts appear to have secured Alonso and Schwarber for the Orioles and Phillies for the next five years, this may not prevent the players from being moved as circumstances change. Schwarber will vest in his 10 and 5 rights[1] after this season in 2026 and gain full veto rights over trades, and Pete Alonso has a limited no-trade clause which may limit the Orioles and Phillies ability to move these players elsewhere.
    Losing out on these two players especially with their trade protections is probably a burden the Red Sox are glad to have avoided. What do you think?
    [1] https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/10-and-5-rights
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