Jack Lindsay

Alex Bregman remains a hot topic on the free-agent market as two of the biggest names, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, are now off the board. That leaves Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Kyle Tucker as the top remaining bats still searching for a home. Boston had been linked to Bichette earlier in December, but Julian McWilliams reported on December 9 that “the Red Sox are no longer involved with Bo Bichette unless his market changes drastically.” That development leaves Bregman as the premier hitter connected to the Sox, in a market that has noticeably picked up pace over the past week. The looming question for Craig Breslow and the front office remains: Despite the successes of the 2025 season, should the Red Sox look to retain Bregman’s services going forward? The answer is unequivocally yes. Before getting there, it is worth summarizing the recent developments surrounding Bregman and his market, as he has gradually moved out of Boston’s presumed grasp and into the orbit of other teams. On December 11, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported the following: “Mega-agent Scott Boras, representing Alex Bregman, the top free-agent third baseman on the market, has initiated discussions with the Mariners to express Bregman’s willingness to consider Seattle as a destination, an industry source told The Times.” That report suggested the market may not have been moving at the pace Bregman originally anticipated. When an agent reaches out to a team rather than the other way around, it signals a lack of leverage and likely did little to increase the Red Sox’s sense of urgency. Chris Cotillo of MassLive echoed that sentiment shortly thereafter. Then, on December 16, the dam broke. Jeff Passan reported on December 18 that Bregman is seeking a long-term deal after taking a short-term contract last offseason. Ken Rosenthal added in The Athletic that the Diamondbacks could pursue Bregman while keeping Ketel Marte, though such an outcome appears unlikely. The idea of the Red Sox offering a long-term contract to a player over the age of 30 runs counter to their recent history. Even this offseason, they lost out on Pete Alonso to a division rival after refusing to go to the necessary lengths, a pattern that mirrors their approach with Schwarber as well. In fact, the only player on the current roster signed as a free agent to what could reasonably be considered a long-term deal of four or more years and over $100 million is Trevor Story. To their credit, the Red Sox have committed to intelligent extensions with Ceddanne Rafaela, Kristian Campbell, Brayan Bello, Roman Anthony, and Garrett Crochet. Still, the organizational theme is clear: a reluctance to deviate from “the model.” While the back half of contracts with older free agents often becomes inefficient, there is real value in maximizing the short-term window. Craig Breslow has demonstrated sharp decision-making in trades and roster construction, but at some point, he needs to be comfortable being uncomfortable. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman once said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you’ll finish third on every free agent.” Breslow and company have been too rational. Even last offseason, it felt as though Breslow was backed into offering Bregman a one-year, $40 million deal simply to avoid the risk of committing four-plus years to a 30-year-old. @Maddie Landis dove deeper than I have into the financial decisions of this new-form Red Sox and how their approach contrasts with the Chicago Cubs. It is an excellent piece that expands on the issues I raised here. Beyond what appears to be a philosophical issue within the modern Red Sox front office, though, it's clear Alex Bregman needs to be brought back. He is one of only three free agents projected by FanGraphs to produce at least 4.0 fWAR. A model of consistency, Bregman has not posted a wRC+ below 114 since his rookie season, has never recorded a strikeout rate above 15.5 percent, and has hit at least 12 home runs in every full season except his rookie year and the shortened 2020 campaign. According to data from TJStats, Bregman remains one of the elite bat-to-ball hitters in the sport. That profile is especially relevant given that the Red Sox ranked sixth in O-Swing percentage at 29.4 percent, 19th in Z-Contact percentage at 85.2 percent, 25th in overall Contact percentage at 75.8 percent, and 10th in strikeout rate at 22.9 percent. His off-field presence may be just as valuable as his production at third base or in the batter’s box. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer have both spoken about Bregman’s influence on their approach. Carlos Narváez recounted Bregman calling him at 2 a.m. to discuss hitting mechanics and consistently seeking extra cage work with teammates. Even Connelly Early has described how Bregman sat down with him after his debut to discuss pitch tipping. If the Red Sox commit to Bregman, or a player of his caliber, on a long-term deal, it would signal a commitment to championships rather than an exclusive focus on optimal future outcomes. This is already a playoff-caliber roster, and with the right moves, it can become a legitimate championship contender. It is time for Breslow to move beyond the model. View full article

To the surprise of many, the Boston Red Sox went out and acquired another starting pitcher in Johan Oviedo, deemed to be more of a project than the previously-acquired Sonny Gray. With 12 years of big league experience, Gray has significantly more predictability in the results department. Fans may look at Oviedo’s last full season with puzzlement, seeing a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 177 2/3 IP. I am not here to convince you that a 4.31 ERA is anything to write home about, but what I will say is that his fastball and the movement he can generate raise his ceiling significantly. His fastball is by far his most lively offering. Our own @Nick John spoke of its effectiveness saying, The cause of these fantastic numbers is why the Red Sox have sought out Oveido’s services in 2026, and it's why Craig Breslow believes he can be an impact starter; that fastball has a chance to be special. When checking out Oviedo’s FanGraphs page, you can see a significant jump in his Stuff+ metric and specifically on his fastball. In his last season before Tommy John surgery, Oviedo’s fastball was graded as a well-below-average pitch with a Stuff+ of 82. In 2025, that number jumped an unprecedented 33 points to a Stuff+ grade of 115. Thanks to @TJstats on Twitter, we can get an in-depth look and visual of why Oviedo’s fastball gave hitters problems in 2025. We can see here that Oviedo’s motion creates a unique profile of release height (hRel) and extension (Ext.), and according to Baseball Savant, his 7.4 feet of extension was in the 98th percentile in MLB. With those specific metrics, it creates one of the most unique fastball profiles in baseball. With a low release point, fastballs will typically run more horizontally than his does. Think of former Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale. Sale’s release height is .1 feet higher than Oviedo’s, and yet, Sale’s fastball runs 10 inches more than Oviedo’s (15 v. 5.6). Hitters go in expecting this movement as well, and as a result, this creates an effective fastball. Oviedo raised his release height from 2.5 feet to 3.1 feet and, in turn, increased his swinging strike rate from 7% to 10.2% You can see the release height increase visualized here: One concept breaking into the mainstream is Induced Vertical Break (iVB). What iVB attempts to do is take gravity out of the equation to determine how well a pitch can combat the effects of gravity and stay up. This used to be looked at publicly through spin rate; if a pitcher’s spin was high, then the fastball would have apparent “rise.” This can now be articulated through iVB — the higher it is (on fastballs), the better chance hitters have to swing underneath the pitch. Now, Oviedo’s iVB at face value is a below-average level offering, only 15.4 inches, which is -0.6 inches below the average. For comparison, the leader in iVB is Alex Vesia with 20.9 inches. But because of the combination of release point, arm angle, and iVB, Oviedo was able to increase his fastball K% from 16.1% all the way to 30.9%. His seam manipulation has caused significantly less run to the arm side, and it’s staying up far longer than opposing hitters expect. Below, his 2023 fastball (left, red) compared to his 2025 fastball (right, red). In 2023, Oviedo had a fastball that was well below average in terms of rise, as indicated by the shaded circle on the graph. By 2025, he was right at, if not above, league average with his fastball. Because of this sudden rise and hitters swinging underneath the fastball thanks to the uncanny iVB, his fastball’s fly-ball rate shot up from 25.4% to 58.1%, its zone contact percentage went from 90.2% down to 75.7%, and opposing hitters posted a mere .638 OPS against it. dnZiVldfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkFOVVhBSUdVd29BVzFzQ1hnQUhWdzRBQUFNTlVBVUFDd2RXQVFZSFV3VlhWUUFE.mp4 There’s a reason Craig Breslow said, At this point, Breslow and Andrew Bailey have done enough to prove that they can identify potential, and with Oviedo, there is a clear foundation of potential at the individual pitch level. Of course, one glaring issue is the walk problem. Oviedo had a walk rate of 13.5% and has never had a rate below 8.9% in his whole career. It does not matter how nasty of a pitch ball four is. But beyond that, the prospect of what Johan Oviedo could be is very exciting, and the prospect package was nothing significant for what could be a solid fourth or fifth option in the Red Sox's rotation. This certainly can’t be the final move for the pitching staff this offseason, but it’s great to see the front office take advantage of farm depth to improve the 26-man roster in two consecutive weeks. View full article

The Boston Red Sox made an early offseason splash by acquiring Sonny Gray, whom they'll pay just $21 million in 2026 thanks to the St. Louis Cardinals picking up half of his remaining salary. Soon after the trade, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reported that Boston had shifted its attention to an impact middle-of-the-order bat. That approach is reasonable, but Gray is not the number two starter many fans envisioned when the offseason began. Hopes of pairing Garrett Crochet with Joe Ryan created dreams of one of the most dominant one-two punches in the sport. Gray instead profiles as an upper-tier number three starter. That still carries value, but it does not justify ignoring additional upgrades. As our own @Maddie Landis illustrated, Gray’s velocity continues to dip and he has become increasingly reliant on his breaking pitches to miss bats. His sweeper was dominant last season with the highest strikeout rate among all qualified sweepers. Along with the near one run gap between his SIERA and ERA, there is reason to believe he can regain his 2023 form, a season where he finished second in American League Cy Young voting. Even so, he is not enough to stabilize the rotation on his own. FanGraphs’ Roster Resource currently projects Patrick Sandoval, who has not pitched in a year and a half due to a strained left elbow, as the fifth starter. Kutter Crawford is slotted fourth after also missing 2025. The Red Sox can slow-play their returns, but relying on both early in the season does not create confidence. Meanwhile, the rival Toronto Blue Jays recently signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, 210 million dollar contract and widened the gap. If Boston intends to spend heavily on a bat, there are still cost-efficient pitching upgrades available that would keep the club under the third luxury tax threshold. 1. Freddy Peralta Reporting from MLBTradeRumors.com and The Athletic suggests that the Brewers may be concerned about their long-term payroll. Milwaukee has frequently moved top pitchers one year before free agency — see Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams — and could do the same with Peralta. Peralta has one year left before free agency and is owed only eight million dollars in 2026. This gives the Red Sox significant flexibility to add both a bat and bullpen help. He finished fifth in National League Cy Young voting this past season and has never posted a strikeout rate below 27.1 percent. For a Boston team that was only slightly above league average at striking out opponents, Peralta’s three straight seasons with 200 or more strikeouts would raise the rotation’s ceiling considerably. There are signs of some good luck in his most recent performance. His strand rate of 85.5 percent was well above his career norms, and his .243 batting average on balls in play was below the league average of .291. Some regression is expected, but even with that in mind, Peralta is easily worth his contract and would immediately slot in as the number two starter in Boston. 2. Merrill Kelly If the Red Sox want a cost-effective free agent starter, Merrill Kelly is an ideal option who can serve as a strong fourth starter while performing like an above-average number three. Most projections, including DiamondCentric’s, estimate his price at about 18 million dollars per year. year during that stretch. Since 2022, Kelly’s highest ERA is 4.03, and his SIERA has ranged from 3.95 to 4.12 in each season. He has delivered an fWAR of either 3.1 or 3.2 in every full season. His changeup is one of the best in the league with a .147 isolated slugging allowed, a 74 wRC+ against, and 3.5 inches of extra movement compared to similar pitchers. Kelly may cost about what Walker Buehler received, but he offers a much higher floor and is not a developmental project. Whoever signs him can reasonably expect an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 over about 160 innings. With Boston sitting about 20 million dollars below the first luxury tax threshold, Kelly fits perfectly as a finishing piece for the rotation. The Red Sox should prioritize adding a bat, but their current rotation is not strong enough to compete with Toronto or New York. They have depth options for the fifth spot that include Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins, and Tanner Houck once he returns. Depth is valuable once injuries occur, but elite teams win with top-tier pitching, not only with back-end coverage. Peralta offers the higher-impact solution and Kelly provides dependable stability. Boston currently projects for the second-highest starting pitcher WAR behind the Dodgers, but projections only matter so much. If the Red Sox remain quiet on the pitching front, they will fall behind quickly. One more meaningful addition could secure their place among the league’s best. View full article

We know the Boston Red Sox like to make trades. Garrett Crochet came over in one, and Rafael Devers was sent to the opposite side of the country in another. In this two-part series, we'll examine the 10 players on the roster than most often find themselves ensnared in trade rumors. Let's discuss the pros and cons of trading each, as well as the likelihood that Craig Breslow actually decides to send them packing. 10. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF Pros: Rafaela has developed into the best defensive center fielder in baseball. He ranked in the 99th percentile in Fielding Run Value, 99th percentile in Outs Above Average, and 97th percentile in Arm Strength. Considering the Red Sox were one of the worst defensive teams in the league, his presence is essential to building the identity the organization has been pursuing, as evidenced by the signing of Alex Bregman and the acquisition of Carlos Narvaez last offseason. Rafaela also lowered his strikeout rate from 26.4 percent to 19.9 percent and improved his AVG, OBP, SLG, and fWAR, finishing with a 3.8 mark in the latter. Cons: While his highs are extremely high (e.g., the walk-off against the Rays), his lows are just as extreme. He hit .218 in the second half compared to .277 in the first and struck out 22 times in both August and September. He also ranked fourth in MLB in out-of-zone swing rate (42.2 percent) and ninth in zone swing rate (75.3 percent). His free-swinging approach is unlikely to change, and his streakiness appears to be part of the package. Trade Likelihood: Low Rafaela is highly likely to be protected, especially with rumors surrounding Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran as the offseason begins. Despite his offensive inconsistencies, his defense is an invaluable asset for what the Red Sox need. If a team insists on acquiring Rafaela over Abreu, a blockbuster scenario could exist, but given his team-friendly contract and the fact that he is coming off a career year, the Red Sox would be foolish to move him. 9. Masataka Yoshida, OF/DH Pros: Yoshida is a career .282 MLB hitter with an elite strikeout rate, providing stability in the lower half of the lineup. Before his injury-plagued 2025 season, he posted wRC+ marks of 111 and 116. He rarely swings and misses, and when he does swing, he consistently squares up the baseball. Cons: The drawbacks are significant. He is one of the weakest outfield defenders in the league, which is why the Red Sox have used him almost exclusively at DH for two seasons. Before the Devers deal, they had nowhere to play him and essentially stashed him on the IL and at AAA until a roster spot opened. At age 32 (33 in July), he is making $18.6 million annually, the third-highest AAV on the team. With limited power, he does not provide the offensive output expected from a DH and may be more of a roster clog than a core contributor. Trade Likelihood: Medium/Low A Yoshida trade would likely be a salary dump to create CBT space rather than a move to acquire impact talent for 2026. Boston does not have emotional investment in him, as he was signed under Chaim Bloom. Craig Breslow has already shown a willingness to move contracts he considers inefficient, especially ones he did not issue. A trade feels more “low” than “medium”; it will be difficult to find a team willing to take on his contract. To his credit, though, he is still an excellent contact hitter. Unfortunately, a 54.8 percent ground-ball rate from a DH is simply not tenable. 8.Payton Tolle, SP Pros: Tolle rocketed through the system last season, rising from High-A to MLB in a single year. His fastball is one of the best in baseball by underlying metrics, and he posted a 36.5 percent strikeout rate in the minors and a 25.7 percent rate in the majors—impressive for just 16 1/3 MLB innings. As the top prospect in the Red Sox's system on Talk Sox's rankings, his ceiling is extremely high. His elevated ERA should not deter evaluators. Cons: Tolle struggled with command in the majors, posting a 10.8 percent walk rate—three percent higher than his highest minor-league mark. It is normal to see regression in K%, ERA, or WHIP moving from the minors to the majors, but command tends to be a more stable skill. That must rebound for him to slot in as a reliable No. 3 or No. 4 starter. Trade Likelihood: Medium If the Red Sox pursue a major trade this offseason, opposing teams will undoubtedly ask for Tolle, a controllable lefty with premium velocity. Boston likely does not want to move him, but he could be a required piece in a deal for a pitcher of Joe Ryan’s caliber. 7. Kristian Campbell Pros: Like Tolle, Campbell is a high-ceiling, tools-heavy prospect with significant upside. He climbed from High-A to AAA by the end of 2024 and debuted on Opening Day this past season. Fans saw his potential immediately, as he posted a .902 OPS and a .301 average in April, earning a Rookie of the Month distinction. His 89.5 mph average exit velocity that month would have ranked 17th among all rookies this season. Cons: His strikeout numbers were unacceptable for a prospect with his profile, contributing to his .134 average in May. His defense at second base was also poor, ranking fourth-worst in MLB according to Outs Above Average. Additionally, Campbell struggled to keep weight on throughout the season, which contributed to his performance decline. Trade Likelihood: Low The Red Sox have gotten Campbell back into his routine and believe this offseason has been a valuable mental and physical reset. Breslow has also committed to starting Campbell in the outfield. That statement suggests he either believes Campbell can handle the position or sees him as a possible trade piece—but given that Boston already has four other outfielders, Breslow seems more likely to move one of them instead. Considering the eight-year, $60 million extension Campbell signed in April, the odds of a trade are low. 6. Garrett Whitlock, RP Pros: Whitlock dominated opposing hitters this season with a 2.25 ERA. Across 72 innings, he increased his strikeout rate by eight percent, and opponents hit just .205 against him. He also increased his sinker velocity by 2.2 mph, contributing to his highest ground-ball rate since his 2021 debut. Cons: Reliever performance can be volatile, as shown by Whitlock’s 2023 season, when he posted a 5.15 ERA in 71 2/3 innings. After that season, he threw only 18 1/3 innings in 2024 because of an oblique injury, raising questions about durability. He also appeared to wear down during the postseason, particularly in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees. Trade Likelihood: Low Championship-caliber teams do not trade elite bullpen arms—they acquire them. Boston's current trajectory does not align with dealing a setup man like Whitlock. He offers immense value, and he could close for multiple teams, making him even more essential to keep. Any time the Red Sox entered the eighth inning with a lead and both Aroldis Chapman and Whitlock available, it felt almost automatic. The Red Sox should be focused on acquiring talent, not trading away up-and-coming or established contributors, unless doing so improves another area of the major-league roster. Breslow made four trades in one day already this offseason. It would not be surprising if he executes another substantial move in the near future. View full article

Trevor Story opted into his final two seasons with the Boston Red Sox a month after finishing out the best season of his Beantown tenure. Story will receive $25MM per year in 2026 and 2027, along with a $25MM club option in 2028. It’s unlikely that Story would have gotten more than that in terms of AAV in free agency, but he very well could have signed a longer-term contract than the two years he will get, with a very unlikely-to-be-activated club option. Is his 2025 repeatable, and do the Red Sox need to make any changes regarding Story’s spot on the team? Trevor Story in 2025 Before we begin talking about the future, let’s think back on the year that was. Story blew expectations out of the water for the majority of Sox nation, putting together a .263/.308/.433 slash line, on top of his 25 HRs and 31 SBs. In MLB history, only three other shortstops have achieved at least a 25+ HR and 30+ SB season after age 30. Those three are Barry Larkin, Francisco Lindor, and Trea Turner, well regarded players to this day. This production came despite his performance—or lack thereof—in May of this past season. Story hit an ice-cold .158/.200/.232, striking out 35 times, and sporting a wRC+ of 14. That wRC+ figure was the 16th-worst month in 2025 for a player with at least 60 plate appearances. Talks of a DFA were ringing loudly across the Twittersphere as he continued to dig himself a deeper and deeper hole. That was until May 30 against the Atlanta Braves, when Story went 1-for-4 with a solo shot and followed up with a 2-for-4 day with three RBIs, accounting for all of the Sox's runs in a win. Once June hit, it was all gas and no brakes for TS10, with the shortstop dropping his strikeout rate month after month, finishing September/October at 21.8%. He also never had a month with a wRC+ below 117 or an OPS below .795 after his abysmal May. And, before an A’s game in mid-September, Story had not been caught stealing in 30 attempts. MnJPNXdfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0RnaFZVMUpTQUZBQUFWTURBQUFIQ0ZSU0FBQUdBUU1BVmx3QlZBc0hDRlpTQ1FaVg==.mp4 In the postseason, Story recorded at least one hit in each of the three games, including a two-run single and a clutch solo homer in Game 2 against the New York Yankees. Health Makes a Difference Arguably, the most important piece when talking about Story in 2025 was his clean bill of health. After not surpassing 100 games played in any season for the entirety of his Red Sox contract, Story went out and played in 157 games, 160 including postseason. There had always been talk that the Sox were a healthy Story season away from the playoffs, and that sentiment proved correct when he tied his career high in games originally set in 2018. Trevor Story’s, well, story of the 2025 season is one of a deep valley followed by a consistent peak that never trailed off. That momentum continued all the way through the playoffs, as he was one of the only consistent bats the team could count on as the weather got colder. Breaking Down the Numbers FanGraphs just recently dropped their Steamer projections for 2026, which are the first set of projections released as the offseason begins. The projection system factors in injury history and the natural age curve, and thus portends some serious regression in terms of HRs, SBs, and games played for Story. The projection came in as follows: 100G, 433 PA, .246/.297/.412, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 15 SB, 26.7% K%, 6% BB%, 1.2 WAR In short, Steamer expects regression but not a full collapse, a version of Story that’s still an above-average regular if healthy. These numbers are a steep drop from his previous season, but looking at his Baseball Savant page, it adds up. The page is ice-cold, especially in the contact stats. Story ended up 20th percentile or worse in Whiff% (20th, 29.3%), Chase% (12th, 35.3%), K% (12th, 26.9%), and BB% (10th, 5%). It’s hard to maintain a .263 average or provide $25MM of value if you can’t make contact the way Story struggled to last season. Despite these struggles, Story still tucked 25 balls into the seats, largely due to the highest average exit velocity of his career, 91.4 mph, and the highest HardHit% of his career, 47%. A 25+ SB/HR season is not an unrealistic goal for Story, depending on his health. He can easily be a 2.5-3 WAR player if he stays on the field. A Smart Move for 2026 and Beyond One way to potentially ensure clean health going forward is to move Story off shortstop. For every jump throw in the hole, there was another ball he simply couldn’t get to anymore. Story had -9 Outs Above Average (OAA) this year, fourth-worst in MLB for the shortstop position. OAA essentially measures the effective range relative to an average player, or what the expectation is for that play to be made. Fortunately for the Red Sox, they have a clear, albeit also injury-prone, replacement in Marcelo Mayer. If we assume that the Red Sox bring Alex Bregman back, which many in the industry surmise will happen, playing Mayer out of position will not help his development. Ever since Dustin Pedroia left the Sox, second base has been a black hole, and this season the Red Sox have led the majors in errors at that position. Story committed the third-most errors at shortstop in baseball, with the majority of those errors being throwing errors. A move to second would take the stress off of needing him to maximize his range, and the throws would be significantly easier to make from game to game. In his lone season at second for the Sox, Story committed six errors, 15th in MLB, and it was his healthiest season up until this one. It was also his best defensive season in Boston by a mile (10 OAA, six Defensive Runs Saved). Final Thoughts Ultimately, if we are talking dollars-to-WAR value, this can become a bad contract for the Red Sox and fast if Story can’t stay on the field. If he can, the Sox have secured a clubhouse leader whom Roman Anthony and Mayer have cited as a stable presence throughout the season, along with all the on-field production he’s shown he is capable of. The smart thing to do is move Story over to second base and try to keep him as healthy as possible for the next two seasons. Finally, I will leave you with a quote from the 310 to Left podcast from Story himself: “To me, it’s pretty simple. There’s not another organization I want to be a part of. I’m just in love with the place, and got some unfinished business.” “I came here for a reason, and we’re finally good. I’m not going to leave when it’s time to start skyrocketing.” “Also, just with the resources that we have being the Red Sox, we know that [the front office] and ownership are going to keep adding to the group. All things considered, it just feels like a rocket ship is about to take off.” I can’t imagine better words for fans to hear, coming off the season he and the Red Sox had. If 2025 was the redemption chapter, 2026 could be the season that defines Trevor Story’s legacy in Boston. The future feels bright in Beantown, and Story will be an essential piece of their next push for championship glory. View full article

The Toronto Blue Jays flew in from nowhere this season. Despite objectively poor (offensive) additions in Andrés Giménez (70 wRC+) and Anthony Santander (61 wRC+), they still managed to make major strides as a team in OPS, K%, wRC+, and AVG, leading the league by seven points in the latter. Their position-player fWAR jumped from 21.8 in 2024 to 32.6 in 2025, an improvement equivalent to adding both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Matt Olson in a single offseason. They entered the season ranked ninth in FanGraphs’ projected AL playoff odds and fourth in the AL East, an afterthought coming off a 74-88 finish the previous year. On May 7, they were 16-20, and by May 27, they sat eight games back in the division. While this wasn’t quite a 2019 Nationals-style comeback, it was still a remarkable rise for an underdog that found success by maximizing its strengths. The Boston Red Sox felt the effects of that dominance, as the Blue Jays were the only team in the AL East they did not beat in the season series. So what did the Blue Jays do so well, and what can the Red Sox learn from it to put themselves in championship contention in 2026? The Power Behind the Swing Travis Sawchik wrote a blog post for Driveline Baseball explaining how the Blue Jays managed to improve so drastically despite their underwhelming offseason moves. Among several factors, Sawchik identified a significant improvement in bat speed as a key contributor to their offensive explosion. It’s commonly believed that if you swing harder, the ball will naturally travel farther and be hit harder. The same is true in golf; big hitters like Bryson DeChambeau swing as hard as possible off the tee and crush the ball, which is far from a novel concept but rather something that has only recently started to be perfected on the links. Similarly, we also saw O’Neil Cruz put on a show in the Home Run Derby with his exit velocity and distance. The key is managing an “A Swing” so that when hitters put extra effort into their swings, they do not lose their mechanics. MLB teams generally want their hitters’ average swing speed to improve rather than their hardest possible one. This ensures that when batters are in disadvantageous counts, such as 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2, they can still put a powerful, controlled swing on the ball. The Blue Jays focused on this after hiring Driveline coach David Popkins, and as a result, they finished with the sixth-highest improvement in average bat speed in baseball, increasing from 70.7 mph to 71.2 mph. While that might seem minor, even small increases in bat speed have been shown to directly correlate with higher wRC+. The graphic below from @jacklambert_ on X illustrates that relationship perfectly. A 75 mph swing qualifies on Baseball Savant as a “fast swing.” The statistical improvement from a fast swing (first number listed) compared to a slow one (second number) is significant: AVG: .307 vs. .246 SLG: .603 vs. .369 wOBA: .389 vs. .266 There is also a clear increase once bat speed reaches 72 mph, a number the Blue Jays hit in September as they made their postseason push. Anecdotally, George Springer experienced a resurgence this season, largely due to an improvement in his bat speed, jumping from the 53rd percentile to the 72nd. Since bat speed typically declines with age, this improvement directly contradicts conventional wisdom. (Image from @justinochoi on X) The Red Sox's Path Forward The Red Sox “Big Three” prospects all posted above-average swing speeds, with Roman Anthony leading the team at 75.1 mph, Marcelo Mayer at 74.1 mph, and Kristian Campbell at 73.3 mph. It’s clear the organization is emphasizing swing speed development in its young players. Even Jhostynxon Garcia, during his brief MLB stint, averaged 75 mph on his swings. Of course, there is more to hitting than simply swinging hard. Campbell struggled after a hot month, while Mayer and Garcia never found their footing in 2025. However, both Campbell and Mayer had MaxEVs of 112.2 and 108.7 respectively, showing that the power potential is already present despite their early struggles. The Red Sox already have Driveline founder Kyle Boddy as an advisor, and they recently hired John Soteropulos as an assistant hitting coach for the upcoming season. The team is clearly working to refine its hitting philosophy and build improvement from within rather than relying solely on big-name acquisitions. Now that the Red Sox have watched their division rivals compete (and, ultimately, come up just short) in the World Series, they should focus on emulating Toronto’s success. Baseball is a copycat league, and copying the American League champion is not a bad idea. Boston is trending upward, but a team wRC+ of 103 will not cut it in the AL East. They have the talent and development foundation in place; it’s time to maximize it. View full article

SP Kutter Crawford Age on Opening Day: 30 2023 Salary: $710,000 2024 Salary: $760,000 2025 Salary: $2,750,000 2026 Salary (Projected): $2,750,000 Background Kutter Crawford emerged from the Red Sox's farm system seemingly out of nowhere. Drafted 491st overall in 2017, he peaked as the 22nd-ranked prospect in the system according to FanGraphs and made his debut in 2022 at age 25. He was a hybrid arm for the Sox that year, taking the mound 21 total times, including 12 starts. Over the next two seasons, Crawford accumulated 313 innings of work with a 4.23 ERA and 4.3 fWAR. In 2024, he led the Red Sox in innings pitched with 183 2/3, never missing a start or landing on the IL. Crawford became a pitcher who wasn’t flashy by any stretch but would show up every fifth day and give the lineup a chance to win. There’s real value in that, especially in the back of the rotation where the Sox often turned to unreliable pitchers like Dustin May in crucial parts of the season. 2025 Season Now, I know what I said two sentences ago, but almost all of that went by the wayside before Crawford could even throw a pitch in 2025. On March 27, Crawford was placed on the 15-day IL with patellar tendinopathy in his right knee. According to Chris Cotillo, Crawford was scheduled to make a rehab start the week after May 31. Then, it came out that Crawford needed season-ending wrist surgery due to an off-field incident. We would later come to find out it occurred during house maintenance when he twisted and felt a pop. All that being said, all signs point to Crawford being ready to start 2026. Organizational Starting Pitching Depth MLB: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Patrick Sandoval AAA: Payton Tolle, Luis Perales, Hunter Dobbins, Kyle Harrison, Richard Fitts, Chris Murphy, Jose De Leon To the Red Sox’s benefit (and maybe not so much Crawford’s), the organization has a wealth of starting pitching depth. Every player listed above, except Luis Perales, has gotten a taste of the big leagues for at least one start. This doesn’t even include Lucas Giolito, who could receive a qualifying offer in the near future. At this point, it feels clear that at least three rotation spots are locked up: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Connelly Early. Early proved himself in a big way after making his debut, so much so that the Sox leaned on him in a win-or-go-home playoff game. Sandoval has yet to pitch an inning for the Red Sox, so the jury is still out on him, though optimism is best paired with caution. Beyond the big-league level, Tolle, Dobbins, and Harrison have all made bids for rotation spots in 2026. Dobbins was remarkably steady before his unfortunate ACL tear, and the Red Sox have a vested interest in Harrison’s success given his connection to Rafael Devers. Tolle, the organization’s No. 1 prospect according to SoxProspects and No. 28 in MLB according to MLB Pipeline, isn’t far from pitching in the red and white once again. He displayed an elite fastball, albeit with some control issues, but the Red Sox view him as a mainstay and one of the untradeable pieces in the farm system. Why a New Contract Makes Sense Having a wealth of depth in the rotation is always a good thing, especially for a team with championship aspirations. Rotations never make it through all 162 games unscathed, as evidenced by Jose De Leon starts in September or multiple Cooper Criswell appearances during the season. Crawford has already proven he can be an effective innings eater and remains the longest-tenured Red Sox pitcher on the staff, providing valuable stability for a young group of arms. Why the Red Sox Could Let Him Walk Similar to the logjam at DH this season, Crawford could block younger arms the Red Sox view as more important to their long-term future. One way to avoid that issue would be a non-tender, allowing players like Tolle or Harrison to get their feet wet early on. Not to mention, Crawford has never been the most effective pitcher on the staff, and his run-prevention skills are fairly replaceable with an outside addition. Projection I would be shocked if the Red Sox non-tendered Kutter Crawford this offseason. Letting a player with his skill set walk is rare, even with uncertainty following injury. As mentioned earlier, a pitcher who can eat innings while keeping his ERA in the vicinity of 4.00 is legitimately important to a staff over the course of a 162-game season. If the Sox decide to move to a six-man rotation, Crawford makes sense as the fifth or sixth guy. Ultimately, keeping him creates a good problem for the Red Sox to have. He would likely be snatched up quickly by another team looking for affordable pitching help if he were let go. With two more years of arbitration beyond 2026, Crawford will be cheap to maintain—the Red Sox can always revisit the possibility of a non-tender in the 2026 offseason if he struggles. View full article

The offseason is around the corner, and the incoming free agent class is a largely weak group headlined by the likes of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Alonso. After those four names, the drop-off is steep, and teams will have to dig deep into their analytics departments to find the hidden gems of this class that align with their goals. Among the many infield holes and the uncertainty of where Trevor Story or Alex Bregman will end up come spring training, the Red Sox need to prioritize first base. Last season, the Sox ranked bottom-ten at the position in wRC+ (86), OPS (.691), OBP (.305), and WAR (-0.8). This is despite solid contributions from Abraham Toro early in the season and a nice boost from Nathaniel Lowe to close it out. In addition, Triston Casas has not proven he can stay on the field for a consistent period of time despite the promise he showed early in his career. If you can bring yourself back to December 2024, you might remember the buzz around Casas as the offseason rolled on. He was offered in plenty of trade packages, but it appeared the Red Sox valued him more than the rest of the league did. So, the Sox stood pat, and fans got themselves excited about his bat-to-ball skills and elite knowledge of the strike zone. Through the 29 games Casas did play, almost none of that showed up. His OBP dropped from a respectable .337 to .277, he hit .182, and he was well below league average with a wRC+ of 56. Casas then fell victim to an awful knee injury running to first base that knocked him out for the season. It feels as if the story of Triston Casas as a cornerstone piece of the Red Sox organization is coming to a close, which requires them to look outside the box. The highest-ranked primary first base prospect in the farm system right now, according to SoxProspects, is No. 44 prospect Brooks Brannon. Jhostynxon Garcia and Kristian Campbell got some run at first base in the minor leagues, but they are better suited for the outfield. A Japanese Prodigy That leads me to draw your attention to one of the greatest power hitters in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) history: Munetaka Murakami of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. He broke the NPB record in 2022 for home runs in a season by a Japanese-born player with 56. The NPB regular season is 143 games long, so it’s plausible he could have tied or broken Aaron Judge’s record of 62 in a 162-game season. In 2025, he ranked fifth in the NPB in home runs with 22 and first in OPS at 1.043 despite only playing in 56 games. Murakami missed a large portion of the season due to an oblique injury that kept him sidelined. That pace projected to 74 home runs over a full season, which would shatter his original record. He has been scouted as a middling defensive talent at the corners of the infield, likely bound for first base or designated hitter at the major league level. One potential problem he may run into is his strikeout rate. In his stellar 2022 season, he struck out 20.9% of the time but has not gone below 28.1% since. It’s fair to assume that his swing-and-miss issues will translate to MLB, as pitching is far superior, but his raw power is undeniable. FanGraphs grades it at the top of the chart (80). FanGraphs posted an article with his ZiPS projection for the 2026 season back in 2022. He projects for 30+ home runs through 2030 and 100+ RBIs, with his peak being 137 in 2026 and 2027. He also got a taste of MLB-caliber competition in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and fans will be able to see him again this March when the WBC rolls around. In his game against the U.S., he hit a 432-foot home run that led Japan to its win that year. Counting Yen and Dollars: What Murakami Would Cost Another important note is Murakami’s age. He is only 25 years old, which makes him slightly less appealing than Japan’s most coveted export last offseason, Roki Sasaki, but it also means he is about to reach his prime as a budding MLB power bat. Age also plays a huge role in contract negotiations when he officially gets posted by the Swallows. From MLBTradeRumors.com: “Under Major League Baseball’s international free agency rules, a player is considered an ‘amateur’ if he is under the age of 25. These ‘amateur’ players are subject to the international bonus pool system, wherein teams are hard-capped by annual budgets of roughly $4MM to $9MM.” This applied to Sasaki, who turned 23 in the 2025 season. He received a $6.5M signing bonus from the Dodgers and is currently pre-arbitration for the upcoming season, scheduled to make $820K according to Spotrac. Murakami signed a contract with the Swallows for three years that guaranteed he would be posted after his age-24 season, allowing him to have no restrictions on contract negotiations. Look at Yamamoto’s contract situation which made him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history for reference, though note Murakami is unlikely to receive money of that caliber. Both Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida received five-year deals, though Murakami is four years younger than they were when they signed, so his contract length could differ. One final note from MLBTradeRumors.com regarding the posting process: “Whichever club signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Swallows. The posting fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending above $50MM.” So, Murakami will cost the Red Sox, or whichever team signs him, more than simply his contract value. Why Murakami and the Red Sox work With Alex Bregman officially opting out of his contract on Tuesday, the door has swung open for the Red Sox to maneuver their chess pieces in a way that makes Murakami make sense. Even if the Sox and Bregman find a resolution, it’s unlikely he and Murakami would compete for the same position (cough, cough Rafael Devers). There is a rich history of Japanese players signing with the Red Sox, and as recently as 2022, the team signed Yoshida to the largest contract for a Japanese position player ever. The teams linked to Murakami are the usual large-market suspects: the Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, etc. However, the Red Sox would do well to showcase their bright, young talent that Murakami could join, something few teams can match in the current market. Murakami almost makes too much sense, but I’m unsure if John Henry is willing to go the distance in free agency after offering Bregman $40M per year for simply a Wild Card appearance. Henry has been stingier with his money lately, though to his credit, he will spend when the front office is sold on a particular player, i.e., Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet. Murakami is a special talent in a pool of average for this year’s free-agent class. His acquisition would be a major win for the Sox should they choose to pursue him. If not, there are other options such as Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, or Josh Naylor that could fill their power-bat void in the lineup. Murakami should be Plan A, though, and if he were to sign here, there’s a real argument the Red Sox should be 2026 AL East favorites. View full article

A season that started with little hope of bringing home any hardware has evolved into a campaign that could involve some silver and gold (platinum?). Garrett Crochet has ascended into a true ace this season, Ceddanne Rafaela is a vacuum in the outfield, and Roman Anthony is transforming into a budding superstar before our very eyes. Heck, Aroldis Chapman is seeking to accomplish a feat not done since 2003. Cy Young Garrett Crochet Crochet is putting up truly gaudy numbers this season, being worth every prospect and penny the Red Sox have invested in him so far. He is top two in the AL in IP (172 1/3), Ks (214), K/9 (11.18), FIP (2.63), SIERA (2.90), and WAR (5.4). Unfortunately, on the other side of the card is Tarik Skubal, who is the reason I prefaced the previous stats with “top two” as opposed to “leading”. In his most recent start, though, Skubal gave up two homers, including a grand slam, but because the runners got on due to an error, Skubal was only charged with one earned run on the day, and his ERA ended up decreasing. Regardless of that outing, Skubal has proved not only to be the class of the AL, but the class of MLB over the last two seasons, and Crochet usurping him as the top arm is a tall order. Given the way Crochet has mowed through teams in the second half, save for a minor hiccup in Houston, means he is still very much in the running for AL Cy Young. I would give him a 45% chance as it stands now. Despite being elite all year long, the stats that voters will look at typically is innings pitched, strikeouts, and ERA. Crochet leads in one of those categories, that being innings pitched, and it’s currently a third of an inning difference. Both he and Skubal, should make at least four starts the rest of the season, so there is time for Crochet to gain ground. Aroldis Chapman The Red Sox signed Chapman for $10.75M based on his previous successes and the upside of a lefty arm who throws 100+ mph. What I’m sure they did not anticipate is one of the most dominant runs a closer could have. Since May 28, Chapman has pitched 31 innings. In that timeframe, the southpaw has allowed one run, seven hits, and 46 strikeouts, good for a 0.29 ERA. For the season, Chapman has a 1.04 ERA in 52 IP. That would be the 14th-lowest ERA of all time for relievers with a minimum of 52 IP. His chances are still low despite that, with relievers never getting full recognition regarding the Cy Young award. The last reliever to do so was Éric Gagné in 2003 with the Dodgers, though Emmanuel Clase did finish third for the award with the Guardians last season. To win would require things beyond Chapman's control -- namely, collapses from both Skubal and Crochet in September -- but he is in the running. Rookie of the Year Roman Anthony Anthony has torn the league up almost as soon as he touched down at Fenway. In 66 games, he’s slashing .291/.401/.464, good for an .865 OPS. He has the highest walk rate among qualified rookies at 13.8% and the second-highest wRC+ (140). He has also been able to hold down a well-above-average glove in the corners by posting six Outs Above Average, including four OAA at his primary position, right field. That is good for fifth among all right fielders with a minimum of 50 attempts. On top of that, his quality of contact has been stellar, leading all rookies in Hard-Hit% (59.6%) and is second in barrel rate (15.5%). Despite all this, Nick Kurtz stands in the way of hardware for Roman Anthony. Similar to Crochet with Skubal, Anthony’s fantastic season has been slightly overshadowed by an unreal rookie campaign out of Kurtz. I would argue Kurtz locked up Rookie of the Year the second his four home run game occurred, and full credit to him for that performance. Along with that, rookies debuting as late as Anthony did, 67 games into the season, have rarely come out on top for the award. Whether or not Boston's phenom wins the award, nothing should take away from the appreciation we have for his rookie season, especially considering the impact he’s had on the Red Sox's path to October. It is truly a night-and-day difference in the pre- and post-Roman eras for the 2025 Red Sox. Gold Glove Wilyer Abreu & Ceddanne Rafaela I combined these two because the Gold Glove can be essentially boiled down to two statistics that have been taken more seriously during voting once Statcast began to gain mainstream traction. Those two stats are Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Neither Abreu nor Rafaela leads their positions in these categories (Abreu is tied with Fernando Tatis Jr. in OAA), but much like all the other Red Sox mentioned, they are second in both categories (Pete Crow-Armstrong blows all other center fielders out of the water in most defensive metrics this year). Luckily, those two nuisances are in the National League, so Abreu and Rafaela will have really good cases to win the Gold Glove at right field and center field, respectively. In Rafaela's case, he could make a late run at the Platinum Glove award, though Bobby Witt Jr.'s jaw-dropping 21 OAA at shortstop will be hard to overcome. Carlos Narvaez Narvaez has been a slept-on stud at the catcher position. Despite his bat cooling off in the second half, he has been a steady presence behind the dish. As a rookie, Narvaez is second in DRS (14), seventh in framing runs (4.1), fourth in fielding run value (10), and sixth in FanGraph's position-adjusted fielding (14.7). Narvaez is unlikely to win the Gold Glove at catcher (Cal Raleigh and Alejandro Kirk stand in his path), though his rookie season should be remembered as impressive all the same. Final Thoughts The awards race for the Red Sox this season may prove to be a story of second-place finishes, which is still impressive in its own right, to have so many legitimate candidates for so many different awards. A fully healthy Alex Bregman season likely wins a Silver Slugger at third base. The Red Sox have not had so many award contenders since 2018, and this 2025 squad has been on an upward trajectory since July 4. With the Junior Circuit looking to be wide open, the individuals listed above are players we can rely on to lead the Sox through October. View full article

Appreciate the feedback! When I say reinvention, I agree that he hasn't moved from mid-tier starter to ace after two starts. What I mean is that the Red Sox completely revamped his approach, and he was able to carve through a legitimate contender. Regarding an extension, I feel that it may be necessary simply because we gave up James Tibbs III for the player we had acquired in the Devers trade. Barring an absolute catastrophe, I expect May to be more than a half-season rental. A one-to-two-year deal feels realistic, but you're 100% correct. The jury is very much still out on the pitcher May can be.

Dustin May shoved on Tuesday, locking down his first six-inning shutout since 2023. You could see his confidence on screen; he was full of emotion after each of his eight strikeouts. Sure, it helps when the offense is thrashing the opposing pitcher, but for the majority of his start, it was a two-run ballgame. May talked about the start postgame: With Garrett Crochet passing his career-high in innings and Lucas Giolito's velocity creeping down, a confident Dustin May is going to be crucial for the final postseason push. So, what changed from his tenure with the Dodgers? The Pitch at the Heart of Boston’s Plan Full credit to pitching guru Lance Brozdowski for bringing this trend to my attention. He had a video on cutter usage, which you can check out here. In that video, he points out how the Red Sox are top of the league in cutter Stuff+. Specifically, they are tied with the Marlins at 105. They also lead the league in cutter Pitching+ (110), which combines the effectiveness of not only the movement, but also the location compared to league average, that being 100. When you look at Dustin May and what the Red Sox are trying to do with him, it’s no surprise that they pursued Garrett Crochet, who had the best cutter in baseball by a wide margin, and added a cutter to Brayan Bello’s repertoire. If you dig into the farm system, the three highest-ranked pitching prospects are, according to SoxProspects.com, Payton Tolle, Luis Perales, and Kyson Witherspoon. Witherspoon, drafted this summer, provides a plus cutter. Tolle and Perales are both listed as average to fringe-average offerings for their cutters. The fact that the Red Sox's top three pitching prospects throw this pitch is no coincidence. On top of that, Kyle Harrison, acquired in the Rafael Devers trade, began to develop a cutter as soon as he joined the Red Sox. The effectiveness of the pitch for Harrison is unknown, as it hasn’t shown up on Baseball Savant or FanGraphs, but SoxProspects describes it as such: “Newer pitch that he started to develop when he joined the Red Sox. Short, horizontal break. Lacks depth. Has already shown some viability as a pitch to generate weak contact early in counts. Potential average offering.” Anticipate this being a reality for the Sox and the league as a whole, as front offices search for ways to maximize the talents of pitchers who throw average fastballs. The Prospect Who Couldn’t Stay Healthy When Dustin May was a Dodger, he was known league-wide as a bit of a wild card, eclipsing 50 innings just twice since 2019, including this season, when he has racked up 113 2/3 IP and counting. He topped out at No. 2 on the Dodgers' top prospect rankings and had three 60-grade pitches according to FanGraphs, including his cutter. In 2020, he was averaging 99 mph on his fastball, and in 2021, he was third in MLB in Stuff+ at 133. Unfortunately, that season was cut short by a torn UCL, which required Tommy John surgery. The same injury afflicted him in 2023, and he has continued to work back this season. It is clear he is not the same pitcher as he once was, as he’s averaging 95.6 mph on the fastball, and his stuff numbers are at a career low. In terms of his pitch mix, May was primarily a sinkerballer in 2021, using it 33.5% of the time, followed by his four-seamer (26.9%), and his curveball as his third offering (20.3%). This year, May was coming off his second TJ surgery and was also in the midst of his worst season to date. The Red Sox pitching lab had (and still has) a lot of work to do. But, the prospect of a high-stuff, high velo guy like Dustin May was enough to excite Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey. Reinvention in Red With the Sox, May has dropped the curveball entirely and significantly increased his cutter usage from 7% up to 24.6%. May is largely effective with this pitch, throwing it for a strike 64% of the time, and hitters are slugging .111 against it. His sweeper became his primary breaking ball, getting him a 17.2% Swing Strike Rate (SwStr%). While Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey have not explicitly stated what their plans are for May during their time in Boston, a quick peek at the numbers tells you all you need to know. The inverted spike in his pitch mix graph tells us that the sinker is not a pitch they intend to expand on, but May’s cutter, a pitch that the Dodgers abandoned entirely at certain points of the season, is a pitch the Red Sox believe is “a weapon”. ek1McXZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVjFSVEFsWU1WZ01BQ2xCVFVRQUhCQVVBQUFNQUJnTUFCbFZSVmdvQVV3TlFCVlJS.mp4 Moving forward into the postseason and the offseason, as the Red Sox seek to build out their rotation, don't be surprised if this cutter-heavy approach is at the center of their pursuits. View full article