oldtimer

A key for the team will be decided within 5 days after the end of the WS when JDM will decide whether to opt out. Many other decisions will be impacted by that one.

I can see us extending a low cost one year to Moreland as a backup to our rookie 1st baseman, whether it be Chavis or Dalbec. We have MHern, Chatham and Chavis for 2nd so it is less likely that we can keep that glue guy Holt. The rest are probably gone, although Leon is not costly and we will need a backup catcher. I prefer looking for a replacement, but I have to admit, there isn't a lot out there at low cost.

There is a substantial risk with each of Price, Sale and Eovaldi. That means to me that it is very unlikely that all three will recover into top of the line starters. Brian Johnson was more of an emergency 6th starter and H Velazquez not even that good. Porcello gave us innings but will be gone. I expect us to reset so it is highly unlikely that we will add a front line starter. DHern is being slotted for a late inning reliever or closer. Hope he can do that. That leaves us with 3 possibles from the Farm to try. Shawaryn, Houck and Mata. Maybe a new pitching coach will stress getting ahead of batters instead of nibbling and one or more of these kids will become valuable. With the reset, it is hard to see alternative paths without trading away one of our best players.

One could ask, "Why did we sign them in the first place instead of bringing up young players from the farm"?

Another thing is the Sox will be able to give him coaching and he is likely to work closely because he was pretty bad in the second half. Remember, for two weeks he seem to really get it and then he lost it. I partially blame the coaqching for that.

The equivalent horse racing odds are first determined by an expert, who establishes the Morning Line Odds. Since there are many who bet that are not particularly sophisticated, those ML odds tend to sway the betting, however, right up to the time the horses go into the gates, the odds continue to change to reflect the money being bet. Since money that comes in at the last minute might be changing the final odds even after the horses leave the gate. The track gets their takeout and want greater amounts to be bet since they make money on each dollar bet. The only play where that doesn't work is where bettors go big on what is called bridge jumping by betting an odds on favorite to come in third and are guaranteed a minimum takeout. I assume it is the same with Vegas odds except maybe not that immediate as games take a long time.

A good reminder of the predicament the Sox are in is that we have what look to be 4 underperforming contracts on the books in Price, Sale, Eovaldi and Pedroia for $92 Mil. The comp and benefits run about $15 mil and it makes sense to leave a little buffer for mid season moves. I would put that at $6 mil. I believe 2020 is and should be the year of the reset at $208 Mil or less (enough to be certain of reset. That leaves us $95 Mil for the rest of our 40 man and we know Bogaerts is making $20 for the next 6 years and deserves it. This reminder should frame our thinking for trades, FA's, outrighting etc. The JDM decision will come soon and that $23 Mil will impact what we can and cannot do with acquiring starting pitching and top notch relief pitching. It appears we will need to find some of our team from low cost players in our farm system. While our farm is weak, it doesn't mean all the players are hopeless. Our rule 5 players such as Dalbec and Chatham need to be brought onto the 40 man. Chavis has solid possibilities and Beni needs to bounce back but is is likely he will. Short of enumerating all the likely players for the 2020 roster, I will say what we need is a good hard headed GM who will stick to the game plan and make the moves which are necessary to return the club to competitiveness. By the way, this has to be done while navigating Price for 3 years, Sale for 5 years, Eovaldi ffor 3 years and Pedroia for 2 years.

I agee. Still further important decision making prior to naming a GM. Is this a sign that the GM will be named from within?

The Yankee fans would love us to let go of E-Rod, so they could swoop in and pick him up. They too had a bloated payroll but in the end, their SP wasn't good enough. At least we didn't go after Stanton. Yes, Cole will be a prize sought affter by many. We should refrain from that bidding war.

More decisions being made before we get a new GM. Coaches, Wright, GHernandez and Smith. I would think it would become unattractive for a new GM to come into a situation where many of the team shaping decisions are taken out of his or her hands.

One high leverage situation is batting with runners in scoring position and this is something that is measured now.

Right now I am guesswing 20 wins for the three combined will be the upside. Not a lot to look forward to.

Not waiting for a new GM to make moves? a Mil and a half here, a mil and a half there, pretty soon it turns into real money?

It's not Ovah til it's Ovah

Instead of manager of the year, the new award will be given to analytics department of the year. It will be presented by the robotic umpires.

I think your grasping at straws if you think gooing over the limit will make them competitive with the best AL teams. The straws I think you hope for are that Sale, Price and Eovaldi all have much better years. I think the probability of that happening is low, so would instead stick to the idea of a reset in 2020, taking the hit next year with the hope of recovering during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. A strong pitching staff is paramount in competing at the highest level and there is a low probability the Sox will be good in that regard. If there is anyway to clear the starting pitching logjam in 2020, I would head in that direction. I got back to my home in Florida and start playing softball again today. My goal is to lose the extra weight I gained on the European Cruise. Hope to be more successful than I think the Sox will be resetting while remaining competitive.

The two reliable pitchers on the staff this year were E-Rod and Workman. I don't think Barnes fits the category of reliability and would let him go if we could get something for him. As far as JBJ, we know what he can do and $11 Mil for him is a luxury we can't afford. JDM's fate is in his hands. If he goes on his own, we may well have a different strategy with Betts, but under no circumstance so I think we should offer Betts, or any other player a 10 year contract. Perhaps Lindor will be available for $30 mil for 8 years, so there may be comparable choices.

I would think they would want the new GM on board to participate in the key decisions that are soon to come. JDM, jbj, Betts and maybe some other surprises.

I think his ground ball rate is very high and he pulls so is easy to defend with a shift. Part of his hitting woes.

Thats what a Yankee supporter would like the Sox to do. Get rid of their best assets in hopes of finding better to rebuild with. I think it would be folly to lose the best young players and start with a fresh piece of paper.

The article two days ago bySean Penney stated about our pitching staff; In order to bounce back next year, it’s going to take more than new additions and better health. The pitching staff needs a change in philosophy. The Red Sox plan on placing an emphasis on their pitchers attacking the strike zone. The idea is to pitch near the heart of the plate early in counts to get ahead rather than nibble around the edges to risk falling behind. Then a lot of information to expand on those thoughts. I don't think Schilling is the guy we need.

I read that piece as Cora was an advocate of the more analytics based approach to pitch selection versus LaVangie who had been successful by studying film and deciding what hitters weaknesses were. Cora got a vote of confidence while LeVangie got reassigned. I'm left wondering if the poorer pitching performances of 2019 were an artifact of the weaknesses of our staff or the dated pitching coaching. ERod had a very good season with the same coaching as the other starters. It appears the Sox are headed in the direction of letting the analytics department determine the pitch selection. One is led to wonder that if one team analytics department can identify a best practice for pitch selection, an opposing teams analytics department can anticipate what the aproach will be and let the hitter know what to expect. It kind of like building counter measures into air to air rockets and have the planes develop counter-counter measures to anticipate and overcome them. In that regard, i speak from experience.

Cole did and the Astro move along. Still the Rays were impressive for a team with a total competitive balance tax salary impact of $89 Mil. Would that our use of payroll would have been that efficient.

We have Chavis, Dalbec, Duran, Chatham, Mata, Houck and others available for next year. I find it hard to believe that none will contribute to the club next season. If we are lucky maybe a couple of them will help us make the reset while keeping the club somewhat competitive. Bring on the new GM and start making moves aimed at 2020 and beyond.

Now things have to be undone but I still think we should maintain as much competitiveness as possible while recovering from the hole that DD put the club into. The Sox may have waited to select a new GM until it became clear how available the Dodgers and/or Minnesota execs will be.