oldtimer

Interesting article on the potential red sox playloff roster on Boston.com. The writer (I didn't see a byline) expects 11 pitchers and 14 field players. Two catchers including Leon and Vazquez. Four outfielders with Benintendi and Young listed. Papi as DH of course and 7 infielders with Pedey, Ramerez, Bogaerts, Shaw, Moncada and Hill listed. He mentioned Hernandez but not sure who the final infielder would be. Holt, but if so who plays short if Bogaerts can't go? The pitchers were 4 starters and didn't include Wright at this time. In relief, there would be Kimbrel, Ross, Kelly, Uehara, Ziegler, Buchholz and Abad. Don't know how in the know the writer is but some names are left off such as Wright, Tazawa and Barnes. I can see the writers point on those.

Perhaps it is repetitive but I can't resist throwing in my idea of the lineup for next season. Red Sox Lineup 2017/2018 The Sox lineup should be solid for the coming year with dangerous hitting up and down the lineup. One could hope for a little more home run power, but it is not a significant negative given the OPS of so many of the likely starters. My view remains the batting order is likely to include: 1. Pedey who is a very productive leadoff hitter, who could bat 2nd and do well also. 2. Beni is unproven so this is a stretch but having a lefty with speed to follow Pedey makes it hard on opposing pitching. 3. Bogaerts is a top notch hitter who will come out of his current slump and be very productive in the 3rd slot. 4. Betts does it all. Power, BA, OPS, speed. With the first 3 in front of him there should be a ton of RBI’s 5. JBJ gives us a lefty with equal numbers to Hanley. Bradley is still on the upswing of his career and may put up even better numbers next season. 6. Hanley will probably be a DH next year in American League parks and a first baseman in NL parks. He has come on recently and since he is here with his big contract, he is a better choice than going for another ageing big bat. 7. Leon has shown great improvement this year. He is a switch hitter. When we use a secondary catcher, he can be moved back in the lineup. 8. Shaw is a good defender and hits with power. He is young enough in experience to make a significant hitting improvement next season. I hope we stay with him and play him at first. 9. Moncada is a talent that will make the lineup next year. It appears he will need time to grow into the role of difference maker. I would start him way down in the lineup and react if performance warrants it. We also have utility players who can and will add punch to the lineup to give a rest to some of our players, act as pinch hitters and as a buffer against injuries. We are fortunate to have good quality available. 1. Velaquez is my expected backup catcher. We can accept light hitting if we are getting first rate defense. His hitting may trend up a little but I don’t expect a great change. 2. Young is a guy who could be a regular on many teams. Good speed, good defensive outfielder, good major league quality hitter. Good to have a pinch hitter of his caliber as well. 3. Holt while not the best defender at any position is valuable due to his versatility. He is a major league quality hitter and can pinch hit for us. I’d guess his role is somewhat threatened by Hernandez and Rutledge. 4. Swihart is another talent that would be nice to keep on the team. He is young, athletic, can hit well and is versatile enough to play outfield, backup as catcher and possibly handle 1st base. Clearly we will need trade bait to use in acquire RP going forward and we will have pressure on the lineup from quality youngsters currently in the minors, but it looks like we can put up a very competitive lineup without signing high cost free agents. What to do with Craig, Castillo and Sandoval still haunts the FO, but I am at the point of looking at those guys as a sunken and costly lesson about signing players for big contracts when all had warts, if we had looked hard. Existing position players, currently on the roster are likely to be gone next season.

Don't rule out those "Damn Yankees".

There were tomorrows and they saw the team right the ship. Shaw added some punch. Some of the pitching we had faced was better than you gave them credit for.

The Sox are in first place with solid starting pitching and a lineup that still is producing runs as a major league leading clip. If Bogaerts gets through his slump with some home cooking and we sort out the third base questions, we can continue to make a splash going forward. We still are likely to get Benintendi back for a playoff run and with Young hitting well that is not even critical. We will have a rested Ortiz to add to the lineup for the homestand. Things are looking up.

Moncada may find himself blocked by Shaw this year if Shaw bounces back as he did last night. Still for next year with Hanley going to DH there is room for both.

Uehara made a successful appearance in last nights game.That has to be a plus for the Sox.

Really that is what JF was quoted as saying. The take on him was that he was raw defensively as a third baseman but he could hit and was very fast (base stealer). So far he has looked green, getting picked off base and a hitter with at least one major weakness hitting. The club is trying to encourage him but will sit him for a game or two to work with him on hitting a curve. The real question is when it comes time to select players for the playoffs, will it make sense to keep him as a base runner? Unless he shows more in the next couple of weeks, he may well be left out. We are in a tough pennant race. Even the Yankees seem to be making a run, so its a 4 team free for all and we need our best in every game. Will that be Shaw or Moncada, stay tuned.

Pretty sad showing for him last night. He has the talent but he still has rough edges that may indeed keep him off the playoff roster should we make it that far.

I have gone back and looked into UZR/150, something I was unaware of at the time I initiated the post, and it is very similar to what I described as being a tool that at least could measure defense relative to other players. The assignment of a + or - runs gives a method of identifying an overall player worth. I am not a great believer in stats as the only judgment of the relative ability of a player but I can see when trying to determine who to trade or who to bring aboard it definitely should be a part of any consideration.

I would also look at the quality of his ABs. I didn't watch last night but I noticed in one highlight on BB Tonight that he hit a liner down the third base line that was caught. If on the other hand a guy is striking out repeatedly and seldom making contact, that is grounds for resting him and/or moving him in the order.

On the other hand during the last two losses, our OPS has been very poor. We managed to lose two game in which we got very good pitching performances because we didn't hit well nor did we hit when it counted. Statistics tend to work for the average case but in specific cases don't mean much.

I do question why we picked up Holaday? Is it strictly a Pomeranz move? I just don't see him as adding anything to the offense, which is already short based on being in a NL park.

Thanks for the input. I will look at the UZR. Does to place any value on defensive capability? It would be of value if runs saved or lost compared to others might be good. Like I say, I will look

A lot of talk has been directed at the evaluation of offensive prowess using Sabermetrics. Evaluation of defensive prowess and the evaluation of it doesn't seem to be something that can be quantified as easily. Errors are assigned judgmentally and vary depending on things like a players range, etc. We have seen though that a team like the Royals who were excellent defensively, had an advantage which helped them win the series. What got me thinking about this subject is the call up of Moncada. He may be somewhat error prone at this stage in his development, but clearly has room to grow into a more consistent defender. So what method can we look at his and other players defensive capability? 1. Ist I would say that defensive ability is relative to what the average player at that position can do. 2. 2nd that errors made on balls the average player at that position should handle, including fielding and throws, are bad errors and deserve a (-2) 3. 3rd that errors made on balls that a player with quickness and range can get to but an average player cannot are still errors but should be less of a negative. (-1) 4. 4th an average player who doesn't have the range to make a play on a ball the top 1/4 of players would make should be given a (-1) 5 5th that plays made on balls that a player with quickness and range can get to but and average player cannot make should be given a (+1) 6. 6th Brooks Robinson type plays that have a wow factor and often times preserve a lead or such deserve a (+2) 7. There is another category which is on the mental error side. Not covering a base, throwing to the wrong base, not backing up in the outfield, etc should be a cause to be given a (-1), since doing the right thing is expected. The realization is that such a system is highly subjective but could be applied to every field position except catcher where it becomes extremely subjective since catching a knuckleball vs a traditional pitcher would greatly skew the results. Right now I know of no system that measures defensive prowess effectively and instead the day to day watching of players. Clearly it is unlikely that anyone will try to implement such a system as it would require watching every game and scoring every play. Right now many of us who follow our team do the mental gymnastics to identify really good defensive players vs only average ones. JBJ vs Hanley might be an example. If there are good metrics for defensive prowess and how they may impact the teams overall performance please point me in the right direction to find them.

While Koji has done an admirable job for us over the years, he is now old enough such that he probably cannot stand up to the rigors of a season or even a short period. I hope he retires for the sake of his own reputation as he will probably be ineffective. Tazawa has been overused and appears to have a tired arm late in the season. He still probably can be effective but if resigned should be used less frequently. Could we afford for one of our 7 relief pitches to be shielded in that way? Ziegler is still effective but he is a FA himself and is 38. I would hate to invest a lot in $ and years at his age. Our 7 BP pitchers will include Kimbrel, Robbie Ross and probably Kelly and Abad. Beyond that, there are quite a few internal possibilities, but no givens that can be said to be locks. Moonslav put out a nice list of possibles. My guess is we go after at least two as upgrades to the staff, one being a long reliever. Buchholt is in the running for that and as a backup starter, but the FO needs to keep an open mind going forward. I also would be reluctant to trade Swihart, instead, I would look for a home for him on the team.

He is young and has been brought up because he is a very good hitting prospect. We have to expect some rough edges as he develops and gets grounded. He should learn from getting picked off, the error situation however may take longer to resolve. Comparing him to some ideal is a little unfair, he is in for Shaw and Hill who just were not helping the team offensively and Hill was just okay defensively.

I hit the wrong button so needed words to post

Hanley has shown more offensive capability recently but Shaw is a better defensive first baseman. With his contract, Hanley is very likely going to remain in the lineup next season, we could do worse. Shaw seems to have unrealized potential offensively, with decent power. I would think he should consider winter ball to try to find himself and so he will make the team and be more productive next season. Young is a logical utility outfielder. Swihart is one of those good athletes who can hit and can play multiple positions (OF,C and possibly 1st). Like you, I believe Sam Travis starts next year in the minors. I do not believe Sandoval will make it back, but stranger things have happened. A lot will depend upon which players the FO feels they need to use a trade bait to get additional relief pitching. I have been on the side of using a DH who can also play in the field if necessary. I am against bringing in an ageing star to fill the role of DH as such a move would no doubt result in another big contract with at least 4 years duration and would probably only have a marginal impact on production at best. As an aside and not to disparage Sabermetics, horse racing is a sport that features perhaps the most information about past performances. The horses in todays races don't conform to past performances all that often. Ageing and a host of other influences get in the way. To pick an ageing player to come into an organization and make a positive impact one has to put rose colored glasses on and hope for the best.

Before you give him up, think about who plays first next year. Unless we go after a DH, then Hanley is likely to take on that roll, leaving 1st base vacant and either Shaw or Holt to fill that role unless something else happens.

Probably those drafting looked at the stature and didn't project the kind of player he has become. Part of his strength is his desire to listen and learn. I don't see a lot of apt comparisons here. He is unique. Maybe a little like Ricky Henderson but not asked to be the base stealing threat.

He is a gold glove quality outfielder with very good speed and a great arm to boot. His hitting is good and he has the power to be a 25 home run guy. He just needs help correcting his batting issues to pull him out of slumps. My guess is that he will improve year to year and be excellent for us in years to come. Under no circumstances should we trade him.

Well, we faced better pitching today and were unable to score. That is how it goes, so our defense and base running need to be stellar since we may face this kind of pitching there. Moncada is a hitter but he did show his inexperience. Getting picked off first and making an error. With his speed, he had a good shot at stealing but instead make a rookie mistake. He will get better and probably get to play some winter ball to bring him along. As far as Holt is concerned, no one expects him to be a gold glove at all the positions he plays. He is a major league hitter and a passable fielder so is a much appreciated part of the club from my perspective. Beni is not that far away so the perceived fielding issue will be resolved.

We do have Kelly and this new guy Scott, who I hadn't heard about before callups. Anyway, pitching discussions are another thread. The Rays are doing us a favor by bringing Toronto down to earth, while we just have to keep playing good road ball and maybe come off the road with at least a tie in the standings. I admit to having become a little frustrated when our bull pen was giving games away. Nice to see the team coming out of the funk and know we have two young rookies who may help us now and hopefully both be contributing by mid month.

Don't gloat! We will face much better pitching should we reach the playoffs. Then the hitting will cool down and we will need to have great all around play to win.