oldtimer

I don't believe in bidding against yourself in a negotiation. If we feel $125 Mil for 5 is fair based on value to us we should stick to our offer and also set a deadline. If JD doesn't work out for us we can get a guy like Nunez (great for us last year) and a pitcher for the same price and probably not exceed 3 years commitment with either offer. I too believe that JD is our best get but not if he isn't interested at the value we have worked out for him. I would not offer any contracts over 5 years for guys entering their 30's.

I noticed that. I would expect our options will narrow significantly if we wait for JD and then are unsuccessful.

Boras probably looks at what a client is worth based upon some sort of comparative analysis based on stats and what other players are getting paid. He then puts in a factor based on how much he thiinks a team or teams needs a player to set what he thinks the player should settle for and then he puts in a multiplier to provide negotiating room. That approach results in a continuing salary spiral in which lower financial strength are priced out, limiting the breadth of the market. Boras and the client are risking teams finding someone nearly as good for significantly less money, narrowing the market to the extent the player winds up with having to take an offer that is below what someone else might have paid. Teams have to have a different perspective. They are trying to build a winning team while staying below the luxury tax limit or certainly below a situation where punishing fines are imposed. That means they need to distribute money to get good players at all positions. Teams must be doing professional risk analysis these days. Even back when I retired risk analysis was a well used corporate tool. Given that the Sox certainly have seen high risk scenarios turn out poorly in the recent past, they must want to avoid continuing into the mess they still are in. Decisions made obviously impact a team for many years. A team also does not want to overpay for the value received. If they perceive a need they will no doubt go in with a serious offer but realize the market sets the cost of the player. As some here have said, why bid against yourself. The presumption is that we have offered JD $125 mil over 5 years. That is a very strong offer and should be treated as such. I am for moving on at this point and using the money to obtain people who want to play in Boston.

How long will it be before our secondary options commit to other teams which would leave us with a selection of players that wouldn't help that much. That is the real danger, meanwhile JD may well decide to go with another team. The players union and major league baseball need to make adjustments since this season is proving to be one in which many FAs are going to be left taking contracts well below thier projected value.

Players are only worth what the market will pay. If an offer of $125 for 5 is the top offer then that sets the market. The risk factor for the team is that the player will not provide value according to the offer. The player/agent accepts the risk that offers may be withdrawn and then other teams may offer significantly less. If the Sox truly have $125 million on the table for 5 years and Martinez is holding us up for more, my patience would run out and i would withdraw the offer and move on.

Thats why I wonder why they don't look at him as a possible 2nd baseman.

I still wonder why the Sox have not considered Chavis for 2nd base. Given our needs, he might well fill in that position in the future. Perhaps the FO is reluctant to send that message to Pedroia. Of course Chavis might gravitate to 1st base next year or depending on Devers defense at 3rd he might go there in future with Devers at 1st. Two hitters with excellent power in the infield would be a step in the right direction.

Right now, all the talk is just speculation. What is clear is that JD has not accepted any offer so they (he and Boras) are holding out for more and risking the highest offer being withdrawn, assuming there is more than one. Its a game, but high time owners and GM's rethought what reasonable offers are. It should be about value and risk assessment and not about ego and wishes.

$30 million a year for multiple years so that we wouldn't have a starting pitcher. Shows how crazy things have gotten.

Another possible but unlikely candidate for the sox is out of the picture.

If you look solely at the monetary side , each of these guys cost over $100 million over the years of their contract. Those costs have to be justified in terms of ticket sales, tv revenue, ad revenue, concessions and increased value of the franchise. Since the contractual cost is only part of the total cost of runnning the club, it all needs to be brought into balance. Most clubs are still making money but a deterioration in the main sources of revenue could indeed make these salaries a thing of the past. Owners need to stop the ridiculous overspending on some of these guys.

There was real doubt about Pujols real age when he was signed. Just one more reason that signing was stupid. I am friends with a guy who has worked in the Cardinals office for many years and he said they were just as happy he left.

Williams recommended swinging in the plane of the normal drop of the ball to keep the bat in the hitting zone as long as possible. It worked well for him although he did have great hand/eye coordinattion.

Sitting ans waiting for JD takes us out of the sweepstakes for opportunities like Cole.

Pretty interesting analysis and certainly supports those of us who are suggesting 5 years as a maximum. When you think of his defense and injury history going past 5 years at $25 mil/year isn't warranted.

Williams was a great player and maybe the greatest hitter in recent memory (recent when one is approaching 80). Kind of a bad joke to compare Devers favorably to Williams.

Not that we were interested in a 3rd baseman, but one more option came off the table when Josh Donaldson agreed to arbitration today. One year $23 Million. We continue to sit and wait.

We do have a change in conditions for these players as well with a new manager and hitting coach. It remains to be seen what if any effect that will have but I am guessing it will be positive.

Yes and that also was irresponsible. Has it turned out well?

I read the same thing however believe needs might determine who of those or others, if any, are called up. You know I believe a player like Brannen with excellent speed and a good arm could easily do the job up the middle in the outfield. He is very young, but a year of maturity with increased strength and a chance to hit near big league pitching might land him in consideration for Sept call up. Can't teach speed. I think he is 9th on the Sox prospect list going into this season.

In any short term period, that makes sense, however on a long term basis i would expect that statistical information to mirror what the player will do. Age and injury do play a part with long term performance.

At this point, I would give JD a drop dead date and be prepared to walk away. In fact, I would make that date some time next week to allow us to make another deal if he refuses. Let someone else get him for 6 years and $180 mil. They will surely regret the day they make that kind of offer.

What about picking up Starlin Castro in a trade. Good 2nd baseman and young as well. Salary is around 9 million. I wonder about Pedey.

I think the Sox front office has several goals: 1. Put together a competitive team capable for competing for the league championship 2. Structure the team so that it can remain competitve every year 3. Keep the cost under control, especially in relation to the Lxury Tax threshold (where possible) These are competing goals that have been made difficult to fulfill as the result of bad contracts, which I would define as not providing value in relation to the money spent. The ones that have not produced in relation to the money spent are in my view: 1. Sandoval Got nothing for a long term $19 mil contract 2. Castillo Nothing for a $12 mil long term contract (not luxury tax but still a waste) 3. Pedroia Sentimental contract for a Sox hero, but unlikely to have value relative to the money spent 4. Rameriz At least there has been some return for the money spent but the value hasn't been there 5.Price Paying a long term ace money contract for a pitcher with a lot on innings on his arm is not a value play and so far looks like a large mistake. 6. Craig Finally we are almost completely past that controll which provided no value for a long term fairly expensive contract. GM's should be allowed room to make some mistakes but these contract have and will continue to limit our options going forward. I find it hard to criticize contracts for Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Porcello as each have provided value for the money paid.

DD is no dummy. He is going to deal in the Red Sox interest. Its my view that it involves making a solid offer and then be willing to walk away if they show themselves unwilling to settle. There are other fish to fry.