oldtimer
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Everything posted by oldtimer
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It should be about value to the club versus risk. Clearly he still has value but is it worth the risk of a 5 year contract at around $70 million? Most of the fans here would not advocate that we be players at that level. I don't blame Kimbrel for wanting to cash in but I would blame management for being silly enough to go big for a pitcher who may well decline over the next few years.
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Kimbrel will no doubt get a multi year (4 or 5) contract paying an AAV of $18 mil as you say. Competing at that level would indeed cripple any flexibility the Sox have. The decision on Kimbrel will have an impact on who we can keep and whether we can compete in the Eovaldi marketplace. I trust DD to weigh the alternatives and make the best choice go going forward.
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With pitchers, I would want to wait and see how healthy they remain before committing a lot of money and/or any contract length. Porcello has been very durable but questions remain about Sale.
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I would look closely at Robertson as he would add quality as at least a setup man role.
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Pedroia will be 36 in August and had an 11 at bat season last year. While he says he is feeling ready, it has to be seen in the context of an older player with a year away from ball and coming off a knee surgery that hasn't had a lot of examples of success. He is our guy and it will be a wait and see situation.
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Sentimentality is laudible but it works against fielding our best team. If you had that $13 mil you could have signed a Merrifield and mpy taken a risk with Pedey. I doubt Pedey can come back to the 25 man roster and give us even 100 games this year. Hope for his sake and ours I am wrong and he will come back as at least an average value 2nd baseman.
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We have been a top team now for 3 years running and our draft picks have reflected that. Baseballs attempts to create parity penalize the better teams. We have a good core of players and we can outspend some teams to keep it going for a while, but eventually it does catch up. We hope that the FO does not sign more silly contracts like Panda and possibly Pedroia that further limit us. One hope is that our front office is smarter than some and can obtain improvement in trades by being smart. Even that is in question as the marketplace for players is pretty big and we certainly don't rule there.
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I agree with you. Feltman is making faster progress through the system and appears to be our best hope to make the team during the season. It may even occur before Sept.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
oldtimer replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Esteban Quiroz is a 19 year old 5' 7' second baseman. Who knows how me might develop? I think the risk of trading him was minimal. -
Yes, they will trade Estafan Quiroz a 19 year old 2nd baseman. Funny they would trade a 2nd base prospect when Pedroia is a little iffy. At any rate, I don't think either player is a major part of 2019.
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
oldtimer replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I am reading Skip Lockwood's book "Insight Pitch". He was a highly touted rookie who couldn't hit the curve ball and switched to pitching. He came in before FA so dealt with the Standard Baseball Contract. How things have changed. He did become a closer and a pretty good one. One takeaway from the book is how his state of mind impacted his play. On this site we talk about stats, but the pressure on players and how they adapt to it have a major impact on performance. Chages in performance can come suddenly as they did for him. -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
oldtimer replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Marco is coming off an injury with a full year away from live baseball. He never was a first string player although he showed a glimmer of ability. I would think his ship may have sailed and that we should look elsewhere for 2nd base backup. Tough on the kid, but realistically we have a better solution in the organization in Lin. -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
oldtimer replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Whit Merrifield is a 30 year old above average fielding second baseman who can also hit. He is a FA and turns 30 this year. The only wy he would make sense is if Pedroia is definitely through. I don't think that is the case as yet but we really can't afford Pedroia's 13 mil along with a FA in that position. -
Yes, I too would like to see Pedroia come back and perform near his past capability. My gut tells me he might make it back and even struggle for a while, but I doubt he can last or play even 81 games. On another note, Moon listed salaries for only 9 pitchers, one of which is Wright, who has health problems of his own. He can be a valuable starter/Reliever if healthy, but there is a significan health risk with him as well. I would love to see us go for it again in 2019 by signing Eovaldi, Kelly and Brasier. We also might bring up an arm from the minors. If so, maybe the risk associated with Wright or the need for Thornburg or Workman might allow for a trade.
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With 9 field players including a DH and 2 catchers a given, we now have 3 utility players so either Swihart or Leon will not be with us next season. You can eliminate one salary there. I also only see 10 pitchers on your list with a potential for a starter and reliever. How much might they add? Could be $20 Mil between them to reach the high 230 million region. Even with that said, we still have uncertainty with Pedroia. His viability in 2019 is still a legitimate question. Could we wind up with Sandoval's and Pedroia's contracts for $32 mil being unproductive? Sure looks like a possibility.
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It is interesting, in that after next year we will potentially have an open position at 1st base with Both Moreland and Pearce contracts up, while in 2019 we have the same strong 1st base presence we had in 2018. DD with have the flexibility to move Devers to 1st for 2020, go to the FA market or potentially move a minor leaguer up. Looks like the 1 year contract was designed to maintain flexibility going forward. Another excellent DD move.
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All the talk now is just blather to keep our interest up in the sox during the off season, which is a good thing. I think it is getting close to time to give new years predictions. I predict that DD will go out and make one or more changes that no one here is suggesting or talking about and DD's changes will be helpful to the Sox. Keeps me in a positive frame of mind.
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They are even putting ads up in side panels when the game is on. It's as if they are conditioning us for more and more ads and less and less actual content.
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I'm with you on this. DD may make moves none of us are talking about. We are weak at RP, second, could improve at catcher and will definitely need starting pitching by 2020. It doesn't look like we can fill those needs from within, so look for DD to address them in a way that will be benficial for the club. So far he has done very well and one would hope that will continue.
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I'm suggesting he has less wear and tear on him. Maybe he could produce for a few years. I'd take him ahead of what else we may get.
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Playing for a team that may well repeat in the World Series has a monetary value that can be exploited and also there is a winners share. Nothing to sneeze at for a guy that hasn't been getting lucrative contracts.
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And because of Tommy John he has pitched a lot less innings.
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I wouldn't assume we won't sign Pearce. If we can get him for 2 years at reasonable money he is the perfect backup for Moreland. He is older and has been around, so there may not be a lot of clubs willing to bid his contract value up. I wouldn't experiment with JDM at this point in his career. DH and backup outfielder worked last year and can again in 2019. If he has another great year for us, he may become too expensive to keep, what with our other young stars wanting to get paid. If we are weakened due to pitching in 2020, then do we want to spend big on him? Lin will never be a big hitter but he looks like he can hold his own at the plate and is fast, has a good glove, can backup three infield positions and could backup the outfielld if needed. He is the kind of utility player that would be high on my list if we get to needing someone beyond Holt and Nunez.
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If Holt does indeed wind up taking the majority of time at second, we then only haqve Nunez available to sub in for short and third. It would be good to have Lin available on the 40 man roster as he can handle the infield positions except for 1st. Marco Hernandez spent a year out of baseball activities with a maqjor injury. Can he make it back to a level where he would help? Big question there.
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I don't see how we keep 3 catchers. We have uncertainty at 2nd base and we will likely keep 13 field players. The starters with a backup catcher make 10 and we have Nunez and Holt already and they are needed as infield subs, particularly in view of Pedroia probably only a part time player. If we backup 1st with Pearse, our lineup is set. I suppose we could backup first with Swihart, but his best hitting is from the left side and that does not complement Moreland's strength. Barring any trades from our starting roster (unlikely) we will have 2 cattchers. The real question is Vaz and who?