S5Dewey

As you put it, yes. But when a player is Oh-for his last twenty it would be foolhardy to bet that he's going to get a hit in his next AB just because "he's due". To back that scenario up a bit, that same player was also "due" when he was 0-10, 0-11, and so on, and if you'd bet that he was going to get a hit in each subsequent "0-for" AB you could have lost a lot of money by the time he got to 0-20! So would you really think then that he wasn't going to go 0-21? I wouldn't! Sooner or later he will (probably) come out of that slump but I'm going to have to see it happen before I'm going to believe that he has more than a slight chance of getting a hit in his next AB.

Yep, and if someone hasn't experienced this they might think that it doesn't exist. SOMETHING happened that night. Maybe it was a perfect alignment of the planets or maybe it was adrenaline, but it was SOMETHING other than randomness. If we could harness things like that we'd be in the NBA. The fact that we can't quantify what it was doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.

And there will always be a debate about who is the best overall player, depending on whether a person prefers offense or defense. We've already been down that road with the debate about JBJ and asking whether his GG defense makes him worth having on the team if he hits

Kimmi! That's a terrible analogy! You're comparing something that truly is random and requires no skills with something that involves a lot of skill. You should have known that I'm not going to let you get away with THAT!

Yes, this! IMO Vaz has a bigger defensive upside than anyone in the organization and many GM's value defense more than offense in a catcher.

I agree that streaks are random in that it's impossible to predict their start or finish. However, once they start they do tend to perpetuate themselves. Why does a basketball player suddenly go on a hot streak where the rim looks to him like it's the size of a 55-gallon drum? Why does Tom Brady go 0'fur his first six passes and then go 12-12? What happened to Leon that make him go on that streak last year? We don't know, but that doesn't mean we should attribute it to "randomness", which is just another way of saying that we don't know. It's not voodoo. SOMETHING happened. The fact that we can't quantify that 'something' doesn't mean it has no cause. It's ok to say that we can't explain it or quantify it, but it sure does happen!

Agreed, if one considers Vaz TJ surgery a step back - which I don't. And we don't have anyone who's going to be a premiere catcher going into 2017, which is why Vaz and Leon are projected to be our #1 & #2.

That's exactly how I handled slumps. When I had two or three 0'fer days I would tell myself to stop trying to hit the ball where they ain't - just hit it hard *someplace*. And within a day or two I was hitting solidly again. Then when I was coaching I told players the same thing - when you're in a slump and can't figure out what's causing it the first thing to try is hitting the ball hard *someplace*. If that doesn't work we'll dig into your swing a bit. And it worked.

Yes. I go back to some arbitrary date a/k/a the date on which his freaky streak started. For the first three or four games I was saying that he can't keep this up - but then he did. I NEVER thought this was going to be his "new normal" but for this streak it was his "temporary normal". Every time he came to bat I expected him to get a hit, and when he didn't get a hit I expected that this would be the start of the reversion to his "old normal". He was on a streak when everything was going right for him. Maybe it was his attitude. Maybe he was seeing the ball better for some reason. I don't know. What I did know was that as long as he kept doing what he was doing the streak would continue and when he stopped doing it the streak would end. I knew it wouldn't last forever. Just like there's a reason why Ted Williams was a great hitter there's also a reason why a .200 hitter hits .200. My best guess is that it's athleticsm, hand-eye coordination, strength, etc. but for some unknown reason for a couple of months Leon had 'stepped in it'.

I wouldn't pay as much for him as I think someone else would, simply because I don't think we need him as badly as someone else would. To answer your question more directly, according to Moon we have a cushion of ~$10M. If we could unload Abad's contract that would bring us to $12M and I'd be willing to pay Bautista half of that or $6M in a one year contract. BUT.... But that's in a situation where we needed him, and I don't see that we do. IMO picking him up at any reasonable cost would create two problems. It would create a logjam at 1B/DH with Hanley, Moreland, and Bautista and in addition it would create a second problem in that we'd have cut down on our flexibility in picking someone up at the deadline. If we hadn't picked up Moreland I'd jump at Bautista, especially since now he must have realized that he's not going to get as much as he'd hoped for. As things are now I hesitate to say that I wouldn't pick him up at any cost, but I don't see a place for him unless we're planning on Beni flaming out - which I don't foresee. That's pretty long-winded. Did I answer your question?

Ya. His OPS dropped almost 100 points last year. He could be on the decline. No way I'd pay any great amount for him. And apparently neither will any other GM.

Then if it's a non issue why replace anyone at all unless we can replace all six of them at once, which probably isn't going to happen? You have to creep before you can walk.

One late round pick isn't going to restock the farm just like one player isn't going to replace Papi. But we have to start someplace, and the sooner the better.

I agree, and that's why I think we often times put too much emphasis on statistical data as it pertains to any particular situation. Believe it or not, I'm a believer in stats, too. I'm one of the guys who bought Bill James' original Baseball Abstract back when it was an oversized paperback and I learned a lot from it, stuff that I used in my coaching. I just believe that now we try to do too much with data and statistics. Baseball is still a game that's played by people so the human element can't be dismissed. Professional baseball players are people and people change from day to day. A player may have had a fight with his wife that morning that affects his concentration, he may have a slight headache that he has decided to play through or he may have tweaked an ankle a bit. Not enough to keep him out of the game but enough to affect his speed or his swing just a bit. All of those things may affect his performance on the field. That affect will be minimized over a large enough sample size but it exists that day-- and that day is what's important in winning that game. Stats are valuable in determining a player's overall value given a large enough sample size. They're also valuable when looking at splits, etc., but when trying to predict what a player will do in a "normal" situation... not so much, because 'normal' can change from day to day and situation to situation.

I don't mean to put words in anyone's mouth, but are you saying that players who are in a slump and start watching videos to find out what's changed in their swing are wasting their time?

From a player's perspective I cannot believe what the stat geeks are saying about this. I'll say this from personal experience: When I stepped into the batter's box, looked at the defense, and all I could see was defensive players I didn't get many hits. OTOH when I stepped into the box and all I could see was green grass I got a lot of hits. Psychological? Sure, but it exists. Unquantifiable statistically? Sure, but it exists. To get back to the original premise, when a player is 0-20 there's usually something that's gone wrong with his swing. Whatever was wrong with his swing in AB #20 is also most likely also going to be wrong in AB #21. That's why players take extra BP when they're in a slump. To find out what's wrong and work it out. Practices does not make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.

I'm of the opinion that a player's previous 20 AB's are a better indicator of what he will do at his next AB than are his AB's two months ago. I always have to chuckle when someone says "He's due". All that means is that he hasn't had a hit in a while but that doesn't necessarily mean he's "due" for a hit now. It doesn't work that way.

I understand that and I agree. But it's still MO that if they're in a strong position and need to pick up one more player who "puts them over" they'll do what they have to do and worry about the LT next year. There's a lot of money to be made in winning the WS, or even going deep into the playoffs.

I'd want to know what the rest of the division is expected to do before making any predictions like that. If the AL East remains one of the toughest divisions in baseball 103 there could be equal to 110 in, say, the NL East. Afterthought.. in looking this up I noticed that the AL East is the only division in which four teams had records better than .500. Wow.

This is the sort of discussion I used to get into with our old pal Pumpsie. Sometimes a recent sample size is more valuable than a larger one. If a hitter is hitting .333 for the season but is in an 0-20 slump IMO his chances of getting a hit in his next at bat are less than 1 in 3.

Yeah. That's what I was trying to say.

IMO the LT priority might change if the team is in solid contention at the deadline. I can foresee a scenario where there's a need for a rental player at the deadline whose salary would put us over the cap. What I can't see is JH/DD passing on a player who might put the team over the top even if it meant slightly exceeding the LT ceiling. You strike while the iron is hot. "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It might rain tomorrow". - Leo Durocher

This reinforces one of my concerns about the WBC. A serious injury (and I'm not saying ERod's is serious) can derail a MLB club's entire season. I understand a player's desire to represent his country, but at the same time the often millions of dollars they're getting for playing in the US Major Leagues should give them pause for making the decision to play in the WBC.

Oakland works for me. Getting Batts AND EE out of the AL East can only help the Sox.

Don't get me wrong, I like Beni and I think he'll do well this year. It's just that when I think about things that could go wrong having a prospect with 30 games and 100 AB's as our starter in LF is one of those places that's fraught with danger. IMO he's that 600 lb gorilla sitting on the coffee table that we don't want to talk about. The downgrade from the expectations we have for Beni and what we'd get from a platoon of Holt/Young is significant.