moonslav59

I totally agree. Moncada's upside is too high to risk trading away. I almost feel the same way about Espinoza, but I realize we'll have to give a lot to get controllable greatness in return. Of the big three, I'd deal Benintendi. I think a Beninetndi, Swihart and Devers package should get us a great arm, but I have yet to see or find a name that fits the deal at this point of the season.

I did hear rumors on trading one of those guys, but they wanted way too much. Yes, they wanted to compete, so they wanted ML talent (offense) in return- not prospects. I heard CLE asked about JBJ, but I'm not sure if it was related to us getting carrasco or salazar. I suggested a three-way deal sending Cincy's 3Bman to Cleveland. Us adding Swihart (ML ready), Holt and Owens & Johnson (before they fell off a cliff value-wise). Cincy would have gotten Devers and/or Margot or Guerra.

My 3rd reason for making the trade.... 1) Age and projected age-related decline projections. 2) Attitude and the whole beer and chicken issue. 3) The return we get on trade and the perceived ability to replace them with similar pitchers at the same financial cost. (For example, trade Lester for players and then sign an equal pitcher at the same money.) On the 3rd point... The theory was that we'd get some advantages from the players we got for Lester & Lackey AND we'd use the money to sign helpful players. The theory was not idiotic, but the results were. The players we got: Cespedes (turned into Porcello), Kelly and Craig combined hurt more than helped. The money "saved" was wasted on Sandoval and HanRam. Had Porcello turned into a solid #2 and we signed Scherzer instead of Pablo and hanley, maybe the theory wouldn't look so bad now. My position is that the idea was not terribly flawed, but the execution of the plan failed miserably.

I think we end up trading Swihart, but since he's on the DL, it won't be happening soon. That being said, I agree on keeping Hanigan.

What about the 3rd point? Probably the main reason out of the 3.

The media and posters kept "banging" that drum over and over. I don't recall any hard-fast rules being dictated by Henry. That being said, I do think age was a factor, as I stated above in my 3 reasons, but I doubt it was the only factor. The theory was that we'd get some advantages from the players we got for Lester & Lackey AND we'd use the money to sign helpful players. The theory was not idiotic, but the results were. The players we got: Cespedes (turned into Porcello), Kelly and Craig combined hurt more than helped. The money "saved" was wasted on Sandoval and HanRam. Had Porcello turned into a solid #2 and we signed Scherzer instead of Pablo and hanley, maybe the theory wouldn't look so bad now.

I'm highly skeptical of Teheran as well, but the cost for better pitchers will be way more, and Vizcaino is a gem. I'm hoping we can do better, but I'm not holding my breath. Last winter, I suggested trading 3 from Swihart, Devers, Guerra and Margot plus a mid-level prospect for Salazar or Carrasco, and most people thought I was nuts.

We may, but it will cost way more than he's getting now, so my point was more about the cost needed to replace these three, even if we replace Taz with Taz.

I doubt we get one of those guys for both Swihart and Benintendi. We probably couldn't get one by adding Devers and Lakins either. I'm not saying I'm willing to trade the farm for one of these guys, but the reality is, that's what it will take. We have to choose wisely.

I understand your point and don't disagree. My hope is that instead of having to trade 2 or 3 of our top 5 young guys (Moncada, Swihart, Benintendi, Espinoza & Devers), we can keep it to 1 or 2 by adding some of these mid-level prospects.

It's for Teheran and Vizcainoe- a very good RP'er. Still no?

. I hate the idea of trading for a number 5 starter, even if he's a good one. I think it's the wrong way to build a winner. We are in a jam though, and overpaying for anything higher than a 4/5 slot SP'er would probably involve a massive overpay. It's going to be a hard choice to make. We are not going to get a cost-controlled quality pitcher under team control for 2 1/2+ years without it hurting us. I get the idea of going for broke in Papi's last season, but I plan on being a Sox fan for at least a couple dozen more seasons. Solving all our issues via free agency is not a winning solution. Building and maintaining a strong farm system is the key. We took a little hit with the Kimbrel trade, and we'll probably take another hit this summer and/or next winter, but we have to leave some significant foundation remaining. We all know it is going to be hard to replace Papi. It's going to have to take significant improvements in several areas to make up for his loss. We'll also be losing Uehara and Tazawa this winter (along with probably Buch & Hanigan). Looking farther down the road, we actually have a pretty long window, before we have significant players becoming FA eligible. In some ways that's a blessing, but with players like Pablo, Castillo and maybe HanRam and Porcello, the long wait can be very financially restrictive. Here's a look at team control by years (player plays through season listed) 2016: Ortiz, Uehara, Tazawa (2017 options on Buch & Hanigan) 2017: Young (end options on Buchholz & Hanigan) 2018: Kelly, Ross(option on Kimbrel) 2019: Porcello, Bogey, Holt, Leon, Rutledge, Workman (option on Ramirez) end option on Kimbrel 2020: Betts, JBJ, Wright, Vazquez, Smith, Layne(option on Sandoval) 2021: Pedroia To be determined: ERod, Swihart, Shaw, Barnes, Noe Ramirez and all on minor league deals. 2022: Price (assuming no opt-out) Trading away several top prospects is going to mean we'll have to extend or replace (in kind) guys like Bogey, Betts & JBJ before too long and up will go our budget. These three guys along with players like Wright & Shaw getting low pay, is what allows us to sign guys like Price and trade for high-priced players like Kimbrel. Once these guys start getting paid more, we'll be dropping guys like HanRam, Pablo and Porcello, but we'll still need some low cost-high impact players on the roster to help keep the luxury tax low. Those guys or at least some of these guys will have to be Moncada, Benintendi, Swihart, Espinoza and/or Devers.

Would you trade Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins for Teheran & Vizcaino ? Not in a million years. I don't think I would either, but how about... any 2 from Swihart, Benintendi & Devers plus both Kopech & Lakins?

I think the "age" thing was blown out of proportion. The Price signing shows that. I think it was a combination of 3 major issues: 1) Age and projected age-related decline projections. 2) Attitude and the whole beer and chicken issue. 3) The return we get on trade and the perceived ability to replace them with similar pitchers at the same financial cost. (For example, trade Lester for players and then sign an equal pitcher at the same money.) It didn't work out well. We didn't get good return and we didn't replace these guys in kind.

Would you trade Swihart, Benintendi, Devers plus Kopech or Lakins for Teheran & Vizcaino ?

Remember, we traded 2-3 for Kimbrel.

The stock on Owens & Johnson certainly have fell, but I do think we have a few high value mid-tier prospects: Travis, Kopech, Dubon, Chavis, Lakins, Hernandez, Light, T Ball, Longhi, Stanki, Marrero, Basabe, Martin Acosta & Ockimey I think one problem we have is that teams want other teams' top prospects, and even though Travis might be a top 3 prospect for other teams, he's not someone some teams might "settle on" when dealing with the Sox. I'm not saying that teams devalue Travis, because we have 4 guys ahead of him, but only that they shoot for top 3 or 4 prospects, unless their scouts see something others don't.

Exactly, and this past winter was loaded with high end and mid tier SP'ers on the FA market. Here's the list again... $207M/6 Z Greinke 10-3 3.61 2.2 WAR (14th) $130M/6 J Cueto (w/opt out) 11-1 2.06 3.4 WAR (3rd) $110M/5 J Zimmerman 9-4 3.81 2.0 WAR (20th) $90M/5 J Samardzja 8-4 3.59 1.0 WAR (72nd) $80M/5 M Leake 5-5 4.25 0.5 WAR (107th) $80M/5 W-Y Chen (w/opt out) 4-2 5.00 0.3 WAR (126th) $48M/3 S Kazmir (w/opt out) 5-3 4.52 0.6 WAR (101th) $70M/5 I Kennedy (w/opt out) 5-6 4.19 0.0 WAR (180th) $32M/2 J Lackey 7-4 3.29 2.0 WAR (23rd) $36M/3 J A Happ 9-3 3.42 1.1 WAR (68th) $16M/2 M Pelfrey 1-7 5.19 0.0 WAR (186th) $7.25M/1 B Colon 6-3 3.05 1.5 WAR (42nd) $7.0M/1 D Fister 8-3 3.21 0.7 WAR (87th) $6.0M/1 R Hill 8-3 2.25 2.0 WAR (17th) $11.5M/2 C Young 1-7 7.07 -1.2 WAR 232 out of 232!) $30M/6 Y Sierra n/a $5.0M C Lewis 6-1 3.21 1.3 WAR (55th) $25M/8 K Maeda 6-5 2.91 1.9 WAR (25th) $4.25M/1 T Cahil n/a $4.0M/1 J Blanton n/a $3.0M/1 M Latos 4-2 4.62 0.0 WAR (173rd) $2.5M/1 B Norris 2-5 5.80 0.3 WAR (130th) $2.5M/1 T Lincecum 1-1 5.00 0.0 WAR (184th) $2.0M/1 A Simon 2-6 8.77 -0.7 WAR (229th) $2.0M/1 R Vogelsong 0-0 1.29 0.2 WAR (146th) $1.7M H Noesi n/a $1.5M B Beachy n/a $1.5M J Turner n/a $1.0M/1 G Floyd n/a Note: Cole Hamels is 8-1 2.79 0.8 WAR (82nd) & Jamie Shields 2-9 6.22 0.0 WAR (183rd) and Shelby Miller 2-7 6.79 -0.5 (225th) Worst Sox: Buch 2-6 6.28 -0.3 WAR (220th out of 232) B4 today Owens 0-0 5.11 -0.3 WAR (217th) ERod 1-2 6.41 -0.3 WAR (215th) Elias 0.1 15.75 -0.2 WAR (210th) Kelly 2-0 8.46 -0.2 WAR (206th) O'Sullivan 1-0 7.84 0.0 WAR (166th) Certainly more choices then than now, but many flopped. Some good bargains too.

Yes, he's been very good for 3 years in a row while starting 26-31 games over that stretch. He was over 5.00 in 3 of the previous 4 seasons (2009-2012), but that shouldn't really be held against him. His numbers this year are scary bad. H has a 1.634 WHIP fueled in part by his 5.6 BB/9 rate.. He has the 15th worst xFIP- at 113 (out of 94 qualifiers). The 4 worst ERA- SP'ers right now are: 153 Shields 138 Peavy 131 Santiago 131 Liriano His .304 BABIp might mean he's had some bad luck, but it can't all be related to that. Yes, he probably can be "fixed", and I'd much rather take my chances on Liriano than Buch, but I pointed him out to highlight how desperate teams are to get SP'ers. To compare Liriano and Buch using the selected last 3 1/2 season sample size (which does not inlcude Lirianos' bad 2009-2012 seasons),, here are the numbers: 100 SP'ers with 400+ IP from 2013 to present. xFIP- 89 Liriano (tied for 22nd with Cueto and Hamels and just ahead of Richards, Gray, Porcello, Quintana and Lackey) 99 Buchholz (41st out of 100 just ahead of Ventura, Leake, Fister, Wacha & Colon) ERA- 96 Liriano (43rd just ahead of Gallardo, Leake, Gio G & Latos) 99 Buchholz (59th just ahead of Odorizzi & M Gonzalez) WHIP 1.27 Buchholz (55th) 1.29 Liriano (59th) WAR 8.4 Liriano (37th) 7.0 Buchholz (52nd) Perhaps most importantly: GS/IP 100/588 Liriano 74/459 Buchholz )

Teams are interested in Liriano, who has pretty bad numbers as well. Go figure.

Not sure, but I think it does. If nobody claims him, and they won't at his money, then he can go any where for whatever he agrees to be paid. The Sox will have to pay the rest of his contractual salary, so I think they'd be on the hook. I think it all comes down to being on someone's 40 man roster or not. If Pablo only gets minor league offers, I suppose he could stay with the Sox a la Craig. BTW, didn't Craig have 5 years when we DFA'd him?

I'm still not sure the move to 3B was what "messed Bogey up". He may have had a struggle had he stayed at SS. He may have been rushed to the bigs due to being in a pennant race and Middy flopping badly. Certainly, the move to 3B may have been a significant factor, despite how well he played 3B at the end of 2013. The 2014 Drew fiasco was a shame. Remember though, several prospect services mentioned Bogey eventually being better suited for 3B, and we'll never know if Sox management felt that was a significant possibility, but I don't think they ever did. Bogey's growth on defense at SS has surprised many people, myself included. The trade of Iggy told me, Bogey was going to be their man at SS all along. Perhaps, Bogey's play at 3B to end the 2013 season convinced the Sox to keep him there longer. To me, the biggest positional mistake Sox management made was keeping Ellsbury in CF and moving JBJ to LF. JBJ was and is a better defensive CF'er than Ellsbury, and Ellsbury had previous experience in LF.

That is the one reason for grooming Moncada to stay at 2B, but I'm not sure he will ever become an average fielder at 2B. I still think his best spot may be LF, but I'm no expert on positional projections on players, especially ones I've never seen play. I think Holt's best position is 2B, but I don't want him having to play FT anywhere (assuming Pedey gets hurt). We also have guys like Hernandez, Rutledge, Marrero and Dubon that could end up at 2B, if Pedey falters.

We may try it with Panda next season, when we may need to avoid a heavy luxury tax. The free agent market is not very good next year, especially for SP'ers, but maybe we can trade for a high-priced SP'er or prospects for a cheaper one and use the "cap space" on offense ad RP'ers.

MLB.com does not have Castillo listed on the 40 man roster. We have 39 listed, including the 5 players on the 15 day DL (Holt, Swhart, Young, Rutledge & Hanigan. The 3 players on the 60 day DL do not count against the 40 man roster (Pablo, Smith & Workman).