moonslav59

I'm not a big Larry fan and never was. I heard people say it was him who got us Schilling and Beckett/Lowell, but I'm not sure what to believe. Here's a good read: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider Here's a memorable quote from the article: “Had we been completely true to our baseball philosophy that we set out and believed in and followed, we probably wouldn't have made certain moves that we made anyway, moves that, as I look back on them, they were probably moves too much of convenience, of placating elements that shouldn't have been important,” said Epstein. “Those were my mistakes, and because of that the last couple of years weren't as successful as the previous seven or so.”

So, we pay the $13M differential for Buch vs the buyout, but we couldn't pay $9M a year for Miller.

Although many still view our catching group as a weakness, the fact that we have 3 guys to hope that one rises to the top is a lot more than the vast majority of MLB teams. The fact is, our team catcher WAR placed 15th out of 30. One could argue that Leon's offensive burst brought that WAR up immensely, and that is not likely to happen again. I don't disagree with that but I also look at an enormous possibility to improve on these 2016 catcher numbers: Catcher OPS .468 Hanigan in 113 PAs .500 Holaday in 35 PAs .585 Vazquez in 184 PAs That's 332 PAs of pathetic offense. That's 50 more PAs than Leon, so yeah, Leon's .845 is not likely repeatable, but so is the sub .550 OPS from the three listed above - to be replaced by more PAs from Leon and maybe Swihart and Vaz. Our catcher OPS was .681 this year. I actually think a Leon-Vaz-Swi combo can do better than that in 2017.

Just because I pointed out that the Sox were in decline during Theo's last years here, a fact he confirms himself and discussed his own mistakes and "loss of sight", does not mean I'm not giving him the "credit he deserves". I get the feeling that some people think that because someone is the greatest, which to me Theo is right now, just mentioning some weak point about that person means you can't think he's the best. Everything is black or white, and no grays are allowed. I'm not a baseball historian. There have been many baseball dynasties over the years. What Theo has done with two a historically losing teams is amazing. As far as I know, nobody else has done that. Maybe this fact alone makes him the greatest of all time. I don't know. I do think he is clearly the best GM over the last 20 years or so and probably longer. I'm not sure why you think I don't think highly of him. Maybe I don't think quite as highly of him as you and others do, because of my belief that the team was in decline since maybe 2004 and certainly 2007. When you're talking a slight but pretty steady decline from a point of greatness that Theo was at the center of, doesn't mean he can't still be viewed as great or the "greatest" or "best". Theo left a good enough foundation for a 2013 win after he left. Clearly, he wasn't terrible or even below average near the end. There are some articles about and interviews with Theo where his last years in Boston are discussed. I'm not sure why I'm being criticized for agreeing with Theo himself. I found this in my documents from long ago. Forgive me, if it is not complete, but I believe these are all of Theo's major deals and signings: Theo (11/25/02 to 10/21/11): E Bedard for S Fife & others Aceves, Okajima II, Jenks, D Wheeler, A Miller II, R Hill, Albers FA Crawford, VTek FA AGon for Rizzo, Kelly & Fuentes B Wagner for C Carter Bogaerts & Iglesias Amateur or Int’l FA VMart for Masterson & Hagadone Kotchman for Adam LaRoche A LaRoche fo Strickland Smoltz, Penney, Saito, VTek II, Baldelli, N Green, Josh Bard FA Tazawa FA Ramon Ramirez for C Crisp Paul Byrd for Mickey Hall Jason Bay for Manny Ramirez, Craig Hansen & Brandon Moss D Aardsma for Willy Mota B Colon, Timlin, M Lowell & C Schilling FA Daniel Nava for $1 (FA) Sean Danielson for Joel Pineiro Eric Gagne for K Gabbard, David Murphy & E Beltre JD Drew, Lugo, Okajima, A Castillo, J Pineiro FA J Lopez for Adam Stern Kottares for David Wells Mirabelli for Cla Meredith & Josh Bard Willy Mo Pena for B Arroyo JT Snow, Breslow, Alex Gonzo, R Seanez FA Coco Crisp & D Riske for A Marte, Shoppach & G Moto M Loretta for Mirabelli Beckett & Lowell for HanRam, A Sanchez and others Doubront amateur FA Renteria, M Clement, Wade Miller, D Wells, Olerud FA O Cabrera & Mientkiewicz for Garciaparra Foulke, Reese, F Castillo FA Bellhorn for ??? Schilling for Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa & B Lyon Merloni for Miniel Brandon Lyon & Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez & cash S Williamson for Dumatrait Ortiz, Mueller, R. Mendoza, Timlin, C Fox FA Todd Walker for Thigpen and Blanco Je Giambi for J Hancock Major Draft Picks (see decline from 2007 to 2010 before great 2011 draft): 2011 Barnes, Swihart, Owens, JBJ, Betts, TShaw (comp picks for losing VMart & Beltre) 2010 Vitek, Brentz, Ranauso, Workman, Cecchini 2009 Fuentes, A Wilson 2008 C Kelly, B Price, S Fife, Weiland, Westmoreland (unfortunate), Lava, Vaz 2007 Hagadone, Middlebrooks, Rizzo (6th round) 2006 Bard, Masterson (beginning of decline) 2005 Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bowden 2004 Pedroia, C Meredith 2003 D Murphy, A Alvarez, Papelbon I've answered your question: Theo is the greatest GM since I've followed baseball in the last 60's. Now, answer mine: do you think Theo was doing as well from 2007 to 2011 as he did from 2003 to 2007? How much of a difference do you see? Significant or not?

MLBTR reports... The Red Sox are also showing some interest [in Holland] and will attend the showcase, which is scheduled for Monday... I hope we don't move the team to Holland.

I'm fine with waiting to the deadline. I'm more than fine not going outside the system long term with Moncada and Devers soon to be beating down the door. . I'm not fine with saying Shaw/Pablo are fine. We can win with just one or two serious weak points, but one has to think our odds can greatly improve if we can turn our weakest two to three points into average or plus positions. I'm confident Moncada and Devers can do so, but the time table is unknown.

Who's not giving him credit?

MLBTR breaks down our off season... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-7.html

I don't expect to be the best at all positions either, and we actually had one of the most balanced teams in MLB last year. However, when you fall short, one of the best ways to improve is to look at your weakest areas and try to improve them. 3B and the pen are a lot easier than trying to improve the RF position.

I figure this - 480 trips to the plate - 16 home runs - 71 rbi's I do not think that it is in any way a stretch for him to get to 20+ and 75+. I do. I've lost the faith. ...and this guy was my "sleeper prospect" pick for two years way back, so it's not like I had something against him to start with.

So I'll light another cigarette And try to remember to forget

An "embarrassment" is a good word for it! At least for the start of 2017. I'm hopeful Moncada or devers will fill the gap sooner rather than later and turn the position into a big plus, not a 30th ranked minus.

The money who cares - but the years is more important. A 4 year commitment to any reliever is hard to stomach. Great point. After all, when the Yanks signed Miller he was just two years removed from this: 5.54 ERA/ 1.815 WHIP (12 starts/ 5 RP'er outtings) in 2011.

But, he was "multi-inning" before the Yankees signed him, and they didn't have to give up 4 prospects or even one draft pick to sign him for 4 years at less than what Kimbrel makes in 3 years.

Poof = also not being able to keep up as his stuff declined, which will happen to anyone injuries or not if they can't learn how to pitch and get those clutch strikes. Beckett was a good thrower, but he was a thrower. He couldn't survive once his stuff declined from "awesome, among the best in the league" to merely "pretty good." Curt Schilling in his years in our uniform would have sold his soul to have the stuff Josh Beckett could throw in his worst year. He seemed to reinvent himself in 2011, and I think it was then that injuries and age stared kicking in. Worth pointing out that you can track Beckett's decline with Boston alongside Jason Varitek's to a certain extent. Beckett's great years in Boston were at least partly a product of Varitek, and his championship in Florida was partly a product of Ivan Rodriguez. That's not necessarily a knock on Beckett, but it is an incidation that he isn't the most creative or intelligent guy and needs some help with pitch selection. When he got it he was deadly, when he didn't... 2010. I was highly critical of the decision to not have VTek catch Beckett in his 2009 playoff start, especially after VTek had been his personal caddy for several years up to that point. They wanted VMart's bat in the line-up instead.

Well, he only made two postseasons after 2007, and that was the 2008 & 2009 seasons, where something was certainly going wrong. He did start 27 games in '08 and had a pretty good 32 starts in '09, but it seemed to me like he lost his "edge". He wasn't the fierce competitor he seemed liked he used to be. Maybe it was all a misperception on my behalf, either on who he was from 2003-2007 and/or afterwards.

If you're talking to me, I'd like to say that most of the criticism of my suggested trades are on the side that I am offering too much. I often get criticized for not wanting to part with our prospects, which I think is unfounded. My take is that if we are going to trade away top prospects, I'd rather put together a larger package and get someone better. Sometimes I'll opine what it might take to get someone, but it doesn't mean I'd offer it. Take the Sale rumor: many feel it might take JBJ, ERod and maybe an Owens type. I'd rather offer JBJ, Swihart and Devers. Am I over-valuing Swihart and Devers by equating them with ERod & Owens? I bet some would rather give ERod. Look, when you're talking conjecture and trade theory or philosophy, it doesn't always equate to reality. I get that. To say I hated the Esi for Pom trade but was willing to trade Espi & Swihart for something better, it's hard to put a face to the theory, and in many cases, the face that could be found is not someone OI'd trade the two for, so I get it. Really, I do. On DD... I was okay with the Price deal, but hate those types of mega big & long deals. I painstakingly provided all the past similar signings data, and it wasn't pretty. The deal was totally understandable given the dire straights this team was in. I even said that of all the big-named FA pitchers on the market over the last few years, Price seemed like the safest and best investment. So, although I wanted Cueto more, I'm not going to bash DD over Price. I'm not going to rehash the Kimbrel trade again, except to say it looks worse in hindsight than I thought it would. I expected a top 3 closer performance. I'm not going to rehash the Pom trade, except to say I liked Pom, and the injury was something that hurt the hindsight analysis. I was highly critical of many Ben moves, but was against getting rid of him. It may seem contradictory, and maybe to some extent I am that way by nature, but I liked Ben's long term goal and plan- much the same way I loved Theo's plan back in 2003. The last place finishes was Ben's ultimate downfall, and I get that. Same with Tito.Managers and GMs are often judged harshly on hindsight. It's the nature of the beast I guess, but for the most part, I really try to stay away from hindsight bashing. I do it up front. When I do look back on a GM's career, I try to look at the full picture. I try not to count unforeseen injuries or declines that much against a GM, but if the general direction of the team was in decline, then I'm not going to lose sleep over that person's departure. Like I said, I wish Theo never left. I did not want him to go, even at the time, but even he admitted, he "had lost sight".

I didn't think he was overpaid. He pitches more inning than Kimbrel, and we traded 4 prospects so we could pay Kimbrel $13M a year. Miller got $9M x 4.

Beckett was on pace to become one of baseball's all time great WS and playoff performers ... then poof! He's one example on why you can't rely on past "clutch" to project future "clutch".

I hope you're right, but if the second half Shaw shows up, we're in a tub of doo doo.

3 rings after getting none for so long, is "great" in my book. He did some very good things after 2004, but when you look at the overall body of his transactions and draft picks after 2004, you can see why the team was worse off when he left here. Now, he got the team to a very high place at the same time having a great farm. That early work set us up for a long term successful period. Getting lower draft picks due to so much winning hurt. Signing limits and restrictions increased. Drafting better players with later picks, because we could pay them more, began to fade away. The reasons for the decline were not always Theo's fault. He also had to deal with Larry L. Theo was great for us, but can anybody honestly say, he left the team and farm at a level even close to 2003-2008 levels? He left a nice base for Ben, no doubt. We couldn't have won in 2013 without Theo's foundation. We weren't horrible, and it's hard to stay as great as we were in 2003-2004 and 2003-2008.

Well said, oldtimer. I've always been a bit high on Hernandez, but I have never thought of him as being a solid FT player. I'm not saying he can't ever be one. His best spot may be 2B, but that seems like we can say the same about too many of our younger players, most notably Moncada.

Here are the batting numbers for the second half: 21.2 Betts 14.0 HanRam 7.9 Ortiz 7.2 Pedey 3.7 Beni 2.9 Young -0.8 Bogey -1.3 Moncada -1.5 leon -1.6 Brentz -1.7 JBJ -2.8 Holt -3.0 Holaday -3.7 Hanigan -7.0 AHill -10.1 TShaw Overall, our 3B group had a -21.8 Batting -2.0 first half -19.7 second half We don't know for sure if the second half numbers are more indicative of 2017 projections than overall numbers. Some players, like Betts, always seem to do better in the second half. Some often do worse.

The team clearly declined after 2004, despite the win in 2007. Compare the team's of 2004 and 2007 to the team and farm Theo left Ben, and nobody can say they are close. This doesn't mean Theo wasn't great. I wish we got rid of Larry instead. I'm thrilled Theo was our GM. I don't think we win 3 rings without him. I'm eternally grateful, but that doesn't mean I can't point out a downside of his career here. The farm is not even close. Check out the Sox top prospects from 2003 to 2008 and compare it to 2009 to Ben. http://soxprospects.com/history.htm

The offensive category also includes base running. Both JBJ and Bogey get good scores (Bogey 6.1 and JBJ 5.2), but Bogey is shown to be better. That means JBJ is even more of a better hitter: Batting: 47.0 Ortiz 30.8 Betts 20.0 HanRam 17.2 Pedey 13.6 JBJ 11.6 Bogey 7.9 Leon 6.7 Young 2.9 Beni -0.2 Hern -0.3 Rutl -0.5 Swi -1.5 Brentz -5.3 Holt -8.1 Shaw -8.4 Hill -10.8 Vaz & Han