moonslav59

I'm "concerned" not really "down" on Porcello. I think he will turn things around- probably not to 2016 levels, but at least to a decent #2 starter level.

I feel like Devers, Travis and Groome are still in the system for a reason. Those are the three positions we need or soon will need replacements. We've lost our trade bait with Holt and/or Hernandez. What's left? A catcher from the Swihart, Vaz and Leon trio? Ockimey, Chavis, Dalbec and others beyond our top 3 are not the types of players that will bring back a meaningful bounty. My guess is, we go after a 2 month rental with a relatively high salary. Since we will only be on the hook for 1/3 of the salary, we can probably take on just about anyone's salary and still stay under the limit and reset to zero the tax going forward. Some possibilities: 3B Adrian Beltre (has been out injured) $18M in 2017 and $18M in 2018 Mike Moustakes .271 15 32 (.850 OPS) $11M/ 1 yr Todd Frazier .193 9 26 (.707 OPS) $12M/ 1 yr Trevor Plouffe .216 7 14 (.643 OPS) $5.25M/ 1 yr Eduardo Nunez .297 4 22 (.733 OPS) $4.2M/ 1 yr 1B Yonder Alonso .295 16 34 (1.049) $4M/1 yr Eric Hosmer .309 5 21 (.808 OPS) $12.25M/ 1 yr Jose Abreu .278 10 32 (.803 OPS) $10.8M + 2 arbs SP Yu Darvish 5-4 3.18 $11M/1 yr Jose Quintana 2-7 5.30 $7M, $8.9M 2018 & $10.5M in 2019 Jason Vargas 8-3 2.18 $8M/ 1 yr J Hellickson 5-3 4.50 $17.2M/ 1 yr Sonny Gray 2-2 4.57 $3.75M with 2 arb years left Matt Cain 3-5 4.87 $20M with $7.5M buyout on $21M 2018 contract Jamie Shields could lessen the return in trade needed to get another player, but his contract would kill our 2018 budget. He is owed $21M this year, $21M in 2019 and has a $2M buyout for $2020. C Jonathan Lucroy .256 3 13 (.669 OPS) $5.25M/ 1 yr RP D Robertson 3-2 3.38 (0.891 WHIP) $12M 2017 & $13M 2018 A Reed 0-2 2.93 $7.75M/ 1 yr

As Frank Zappa would say, "I figure the odds be 50-50."

I'm pretty sure somebody in the organization has been scouring films to look for something to tweak. I can't figure out what's up with Porcello, but it has become very concerning. We will need two from Price, Porcello and ERod to do very well this season and into the playoffs.

We'd get more for Vaz. I doubt we trade for a player with a big contract beyond this year or next. We have too tight a window as it is. We have some salary space this year, and maybe a little next year, if Devers and/or Travis can fill in for losing Moreland and Young.

I'm not sure about "great", but he'd be fine with his speed as a leadoff hitter. He's never been known as a base stealer, but good base running involves more than that. Minors: 17 SB/ 16 CS MLB: 34 SB/ 9 CS

Under the circumstances, I thought it was logical.

I could also see Swihart have a try at 1B once Moreland leaves. It looks more and more like HRam is going to be our DH only. If Pablo could start hitting, maybe he could be moved to DH or 1B to make room for Devers and/or Swihart.

With Vaz's stock high right now, I could see him being traded, maybe as part of a bigger package, for a big bat or another starter, if ERod's full return looks doubtful. The only real opening is 3B, and we'd be lookinng for a rental only, since Devers is knocking on the 2018 door. I suppose we could trade Vaz and Moreland and upgrade at 1B, but teams looking to dump rentals wouldn't want Moreland. Maybe a three team deal would be needed for that.

I've been calling for the low-powered Bogey to bat 2nd for years. My choice is first or second, but I went with 2nd due to Beni's speed. I'd be happy with my line-up and Bogey and Beni flipped. Beni has more power, so it's a good idea.

True enough. Opps getting "extra outs" can't help with this either.

Wildly bad luck for RP.

It's like the opposite of 2013. Only Moreland, Bogey and Vaz are having up or improved years.

Maybe now is the time to shake things up... vs RHPs: 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HRam 5) Pedey 6) Moreland 7) JBJ 8) Pablo- Rutledge/Marrero 9) Vaz/Leon vs LHPs: 1) Pedey 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HRam 5) Young LF 6) Travis 7) Beni or JBJ CF 8) Leon/Vaz 9) Rutledge/Marrero

...he might be a perfectly adequate back-end starter, but should we be satisfied with that? As a 5th starter, yes, but we need out top 4 to be healthy and strong, which means ERod needs to get over the knee issues, and Porcello needs to get out of this funk.

Agreed, altthough Rutledge got 2 hits at 2B tonight, the return of a healthy Pedey is a big gain by us.

Were 35% of the way through the season and... 1 game behind the Yanks 1.5 games up on the O's for the first WC slot 2.5 games up on the Guardians for the 2nd WC slot. I doubt the Twins win the Central, so the Guardians may not be a WC contnder anyways. Not bad for a team missing Price, Wright, Smith and Thornburg for almost the whole time

Kimmi, I agree with your points, but I will say that I think Vaz has struggled to regain his defensive skills this year. I'm glad his pitch framing is so good, but he's struggled with throwing and pitch blocking more than I expected.

I don't disagree, and like I said, I was not trying to start an argument. I was just trying to show that he's back from missing time and playing. I agree that he is clearly our best projected hitting catcher going forward. I am, however, in no rush to call for him replacing Vaz or Leon, especially while he is still hampered by injury.

We're 7-4 in Pom's starts. It's hard to complain about that. I saw Pom as our 6th starter to start the year, but many felt he was our 4 or 5 starter. A look at his longevity issue: Pom has failed to reach these IP... 2017 (11 starts) 7.1: 11 6.1: 10 5.1: 5 4.2: 4 2016 (10 starts) with the Sox (Team went 5-5) 7.1: 9 6.1: 8 5.1: 5 4.2: 3 Totals with Sox in 21 starts. Pom has failed to reach 7.1 innings in 20 out of 21 Sox starts. He's failed to reach 6.1 IP in 18 of 21 starts. 5.1 IP in 10 of 21 starts. 4.2 IP in one-third of his starts (7 of 21).

They gave Beni the night off too. I guess vs a tough lefty, it might be a good idea. I'd rather sit Beni than JBJ to allow Young to bat against his ex-team mate. I like batting Young 2nd, too. 1. Betts 2. Young 3. Bogey 4. HRam 5. Travis 6. Leon 7. Rutledge (2B) 8. Bradley 9. Marrero (3B) Interesting choice at 6 and 7. Our 6-9 hitters look pretty weak though. I thought Pom vs Tanaka might be our hardest (match-up) battle, so it's nice to start off up one on the Skankees.

I still think somehow-someway we need to get Young into the line-up whenever we face a LHP. He's that good. We've only faced 10 LH'd starters so far our of 57 games. I realize CY's splits are reversed this year, but I don't expect that to continue. If only Young could play 3B!

mymlbdraft has Hiura going at #22 and the Sox taking Evan White 1B Kentucky (6-3 / 177 lbs) http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

Seems about right. I hope he keeps this up. One other factor I noticed when looking at our three ring years besides having our top 4 or 5 starters all get 25 starts was having a top closer: Foulke in '04 (71 appearances/ 0.940 WHIP) --playoffs 1 ER in 14 IP (19 Ks) Papelbon in 2007 (13.0 K/9 and 1.85 ERA/0.771 WHIP) -- playoffs 0 ER in 10.2 IP (just 5 hits) Uehara in 2013 (73 appearances & 12.2 K/9, 1.09 ERA and an unheard of WHIP of 0.565!) --playoffs 1 ER in 13.2 IP (ALCS MVP) Just 6 Hits, 0 BB and 16Ks (0.439 WHIP)

A quick look at the future and approaching or reaching "the tax": After 2017, we lose: $6.5M Young $5.5M Moreland $2.0M Abad $14M Total --My hope is we can replace all of these guys with players within our current system (Travis for Moreland, Devers or Swihart for Young, and several contenders for Abad's slot.) The money "saved" will pay for arb raises and leave a cushion for mid-season acquisitions. If we don't spend the money we have this year on a mid-season trade that involves a player under contract into next year, we may be able to sign a significant player (big bat?) this winter, but any long term deal at big money will hamper our ability to keep all our important players without being taxed (and possibly further penalized) heavily. After 2018, we lose: $12M Kimbrel ~$7M Pomeranz (last arb year) ~$3.5M J Kelly (last arb year) ~$2.5M R Ross (last arb year) $25M Total We will need to find replacements for some of these guys. Maybe Wright can replace Pom, Smith for Kimbrel, and Thornburg can take up the slack of losing Kelly and Ross, but the rest of the pen might be weak. The real fun begins after 2019: $22M HRam $20.6M Porcello $19M Pablo $13.5M Sale ~$13.5M Bogey (last arb) ~$5.4M Thornburg $94M Total That's a lot of money. Keeping Bogey and Saleand re-signing Porcello (or the like) is certainly doable, and if Devers and Travis are filling the shoes of HRam and Pablo well enough, we should be okay until the next winter. There's no wiggle room for a mistake.