moonslav59

I meant the two combined, and since Papi and Hill are gone, we can have both on the 25 man roster. Personally, I was surprised they never gave Hernadez a longer look at 3B this year. Maybe his injury was still lingering. It doesn't matter that Holt plays CF or RF, since if one of those guys got hurt, Holt would play LF and Beni, Betts or JBJ would move to a new position. In fact, of the 57 OF games he started last year, 55 were in LF. (64 of 68 OF games played were in LF) He played zero innings in CF this year. Now, talking LF, yes, I'll take Swihart ahead of Holt, but remember, Young is between both of them, so Holt is at best the second back-up to all OF positions. I'd put him 3rd back-up, but I won't argue with him being behind Young and ahead of Swihart. At SS, Hernandez, Marrero, Martinez and Rutledge played more combined games at SS (8) than Holt's 7 (4 started). I'll take Hernandez over Holt at SS every day of the week. If Bogey got hurt, I'd even take Marrero over Holt for an extended period. At 2B, is where I think Holt is best fitted, but with Pedey there, it would take an injury for Holt to play everyday, and even then, I may want Moncada or Hernandez over Holt. It's very close. The main point is, how much of a negative differential is there between Holt and Hernandez/Moncada at 2B long term or short term? At 1B, Holt should never play an inning at 1B next year- same as this year. Although I would not place Hernandez ahead of Holt here, I'm okay with giving Swihart some reps at 1B or 3B this winter/spring. That leaves 3B. Holt became our starting 3Bman to end the season after Pablo falter and got hurt and Shaw fell off a cliff. However, Holt's 11 starts at 3B (mostly at the end of the season) should not be viewed as him being the number 1 or 2 guy at 3B next season, even if we don't make any 3B additions in this off season. Again, my own personal (and debatable) choice would be Hernandez ahead of Holt, but I'd also put Rutledge ahead of Holt as well. Rutledge actually played as many games at 3B as Holt, and would have played more had he not gotten hurt. Sox management chose to keep playing a .577 OPS guy (Hill) over Holt for weeks and weeks. They even gave Moncada a chance before handing the job to Holt. We also may have Pablo back in the mix next spring. Travis Shaw can't be written off either. I just don't see Holt as the number 1, 2 or even 3 at 3B next year, unless we trade or cut some of these guys. At summary, Holt is at best our #2 2Bman with Moncada and Hernandez right on his heels, our 3rd best 3Bman and our 2nd or 3rd best OF back-up option. I could see if this guy was clearly our best back-up at 2-3 positions, but I'm not seeing that. Assuming we don't add anybody to the mix, the loss of Papi and Hill could allow us to have 2 catchers plus Swihart, Young, Hernandez and Shaw as our bench next year. Are we really significantly better with Holt over Rutledge, if he's not even going to be our second choice at any position? I'm not saying It's clear that Hernandez is better than Holt, but to me, Holt has significant trade value that is worth much more than his upgrade over a Hernandez/Shaw/Rutledge/Marrero/Moncada/Travis combination. Having a 3rd catcher that can play LF and maybe a corner IF spot by next year would allow us to PH for our catcher earlier and more often than with just two catchers. Swihart projects to hit better than Holt next year, and I have Hernandez pretty close offensively with Holt. Shaw vs Holt on offense is hard to call. Holt is probably better than Rutledge on offense, but I like Rutledge;'s defense at 3B better than Holt's, so the loss there should not be great.

No. He was just a figurehead.

Would that dream be this.... Moncada, Swihart, Shaw, Johnson and Owens for Quintana & Frazier?

I think Dubon deserves the top 10 ranking. Not much else changed in the top 20 from a month ago.

Right, it wasn't Pablo fibbing. 2. I can't believe he got injured on a routine play! That never happens in MLB! Like, how many players get hurt running to 1B or stepping on 1B?

Agreed. I think I read somewhere that the CWS might take JBJ and ERod for an ace. I'm not sure I'd do that as I feel ERod may become the next Quintana.

Bottom line: we signed a fat player and the fat player got hurt.

I'd love to get Quintana and EE, but I'm not for grossly overpaying EE for ther 4-5 years he'll probably get. I do think we need to make an addition to our offense, but I'd prefer at 3B (Frazier? Turner?) than DH.

How about Holt, Owens and Abad for an even better RP'er?

Agreed, and trading for a starting pitcher will also help the pen in more than 2 ways: 1) Less inning needed by the pen 2) Adding a SP'er will force one of our other SP'ers (Pom, Buch, Wright?) to the pen. 3) An added starter in the pen allows for multiple innings pitched within games- taking stress off our late inning RP'ers.

I get that and said it at the time. I think Ben looked at boosting the offense in 2015 and the pitching in 2016. The theory was sound. The execution was not. My point is, to me, the fault lies more with Sox management than Pablo. They signed a fat player, then we are supposed to be shocked he came to camp fat and got hurt? I'm very pissed at Pablo, but let's get real. We knew what we were getting.

There are no top FA starting pitchers on the FA market this year anyways. There's certainly an ability to sign EE and trade for an ace- given the nature of an overpay will be needed.

Watching the championship series just confirms that pitching and defense overcomes offensive prowess. The Guardians and Blue Jays and one of the Dodgers and Cubs games have been very low scoring. Keep that in mind before going in big for an expensive FA bat for a long term contract. He might help a team reach the playoffs but is just another hitter once against playoff pitching. I've always been a firm believer in pitching and defense over hitting, but who would have thought the Guardians had a great pitching staff once Carrasco and Salazar went down injured? Yes, they have a great pen, especially once they got Miller, but their rotation without those two is not one I'd want going into the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, they have some nice starters and still have Kluber, but come on.

I hope you're right, and maybe this will be the year we say, "screw the comp picks" and go out and sign EE, Turner and Jensen. Keep all the kids, and let them sort themselves out. We can always make trades later. However, a 50% luxury tax is not easy to swallow, especially when you consider Henry is also paying Craig and Castillo on the side above and beyond the luxury tax.

It seems strange that he has such high value to us and nobody else. He'd get way more PAs for other teams than with us. We'll have Hernandez and possibly Swihart to fill his shoes on the 25 man roster- both of whom are better options at just about every position Holt plays. I'm not expecting much in return for him, but as part of a larger package, he may save us from having to part with Moncada, Devers or Kopech. For example, maybe a team will take Swihart, Owens and Holt instead of one of our big 3. It would be worth it to me, if that were the case.

That's the thing, Kimmi, a major league baseball team isn't in the business of just GIVING chances. You earn them. And I just explained to you exactly why I don't think that even if you are in the habit of giving charity chances, Pablo should just be handed one on Opening Day. I'm not making excuses for Pablo, but the guy was enormous when we signed him. We paid him $19M x 5 years. A MLB team is also not "in the business" of disallowing big contract players a chance to comeback from injury and lack of conditioning, especially for a player that was not in good physical condition when they signed him. The real question should be, "why did we sign him in the first place?"

It is likely pitching and 3rd will be addressed. Hope that can happen without weakening ourselves in other positions or giving away key prospects going forward. Recognizing you have to give up something when trading for something, it will all be about value. I'd love to be able to keep all our key young players and all our top prospects, especially Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Groome and Basabe. IF we're fine with going over the luxury limit and go large and long on EE and pick up a couple RP'ers, maybe we can hold off on making any rash decisions until we know more. Keep Leon, Vazquez and Swihart, until we are more certain, which one we want. Of course, it may run the risk of one losing value by sucking next year. Maybe see if Swihart can play 3B. Keep Moncada and Devers as 3B options for 2018 and beyond. Maybe see about moving Moncada to OF or Devers to 1B at some point. Keep Groome & Kopech. Keep the 6 vet starters. Maybe one helps fill a key pen need in 2017. Basabe or Travis? Maybe, maybe, maybe.... Perhaps, we can hold off at 3B or find some cheap quick fix. We could also see what's around at the deadline, if things are not working out at third. Gotta like the mix of prime players, pre-prime stars and highly rated prospects: C: Leon, Vaz, Swi 1B: HanRam, Shaw, (Pablo/Swihart?), Travis 2B: Pedroia, Moncada, Holt 3B: Pablo/Shaw/Moncada, Holt/Hernandez/Rutledge, Devers, Dalbec/Chavis SS: Bogey, Hernandez, Holt, Dubon LF: Beni/Young, Holt/Swihart, Basabe CF: JBJ (Betts/Beni), Holt, Young RF: Betts, (Beni), Young, Holt DH: Pablo-Young, (HanRam, Swihart, Moncada) SP: Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright, Buch/Pom Elias, Owens, Johnson, Kopech, Groome RP: Kimbrel, Smith (Buch or Pom), Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Abad Hembree, Scott, Workman, Elias (Owens/Johnson/Kopech/Groome)

Some teams have multiple needs and no prospect ready to fill them and little money to fill them either. Holt would have enormous value to them, because they'd have the flex to use him at two or three positions, but FT overall. While Holt's splits might not be all that great for the Sox, or his .650 to .700 OPS long stretches might be unacceptable to the Sox, those numbers are better than some teams have as options at numerous positions. Here's a look at what some teams had for OPS at some of the positions Holt plays: 2B: OAK .566, LAA .617. KCR .630, ATL .631, CIN .674, LAD .687, PIT .689, CWS .699, SFG & MIA .700, TOR .704 3B: CIN .701, ATL .703, SFG & NYY .704, KCR .712 There's several teams on both of those lists. LF: PHI .593, LAA .628, HOU .633, LAD .674. KCR .680, WSH .687 I could see Holt being possibly more valuable to the Royals, Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves.

I have to think if the guy has a shred of pride somewhere inside him, he'll try to be in much much better shape next year. The one piece of evidence not many Pablo bashers want to talk about is how his former team, widely viewed as a very well managed team, was clearly upset that he took Boston's offer and did not return to SF. They obviously knew his about his character and weight issues but still wanted him back. I'm not counting on Pablo to give us one inning next year, but I'm not counting him out either.

True, but he may be worth more to another team as a starter than to us as a utility player, especially now that we no longer have a DH-only DH. I like Holt a lot and respect the value of someone who is not embarrassed at playing 7 positions, but can anyone name one position where he is clearly our number one back-up next year? 1B- HanRam> Shaw/Pablo> Swihart? (Travis this year?) 2B- Pedroia> Moncada> Holt/Hernandez 3B- Shaw/Pablo> Moncada/Holt/Hernandez> Rutledge/Marrero (Devers) SS- Bogey> Hernandez> Marrero/Holt> (Dubon) LF- Beni>Young>Holt CF- JBJ> (Betts/Beni with Young playing LF)> Holt RF- Betts> (Beni with Young in LF)> Holt

Then, it should also be noted that we got these WARs in return.... Peavy 2013 1.0 Peavy 2014 0.2 Then, we essentially traded Peavy for Hembree... Hembree 2016 0.3 Hembree 2014 -0.1 Hembree 2015 -0.2 I see a net WAR or +1.2 with more upside for Hembree possible. Fangraphs had Igg's WAR as... 2013: 0.8 w/DET (1.9 both teams) 2014: 0.0 (injured) 2015: 1.6 2016: 2.1 Total: +4.5

I hated the trade, but within the context and realization that Iggy was never going to be our FT SS, we essentially traded a utility IF'er for a solid SP'er. As much as I hated the idea, since I wanted Bogey at 3B and Iggy at SS, the trade made sense.

Thanks Kimmi, and I didn't mean to vent on you, because I know you don't assume someone is giving up on a player just because they suggest a trade. It's funny how most of my suggested trades are criticized for "giving up too much", when in reality, I think my suggested offers are probably under what it might take. It's all speculation in the end though. For all we know, the CWS may have already decided not to rebuild, or if they do want to trade, they may want JBJ, Swihart and Kopech.

Too much talent given up for frazier and Robertson. We dont need another LHP andway...at least not without trading one. Porcello, Wright and Buch are RHPs, so we could move Pom to the pen or trade a lefty. We might also include ERod (plus someone else) in the trade to Chicago, instead of Moncada.

I look at it this way, the money spent on Moncada is the money saved on Quintana, as his $4.2M luxury tax cost is a windfall of savings on future tax consequences. Moncada's money does not an will not count against the luxury tax. Our tax will be 50% in 2017, if we got over. That's a very significant aspect of any addition we contemplate. Look, I'm not for trading Moncada. I think he could become one of the greatest players of the next decade. Look, I'm not for trading Moncada. I think he could be one of the greatest players of the decade. However, Quintana is an ace getting paid less than an arb pitcher of average quality. The money he will save us on the luxury tax should not be underestimated. Our tax rate will be 50% next season. Moncada's money does not cost against the limit and will not cost if we trade him. I'm not saying $60M means nothing to Henry, but it balances the low cost of Quintana. I'd love to find a way to get Q without parting with Moncada, but I don't want to trade JBJ either. I doubt Swihart and Kopech get us Q. We could add Basabe, and they'd still say no.