moonslav59

Plus the 2018 playoffs and before that...

I'm not for trading Beni, but he has been disappointing, especially with little improvement vs LHPs.

The pen has already been magically good. It's our starters and untimely hitting that has been our downfall, so far. That being said, we should trade for a RP'er ASAP. Relying on magic is never a good idea.

I hope not.

The stats were not meant to make our pen look great. They are not. But, our losses, in terms of pitching only, are more on the starters, and our wins show the pen doing better than the starters, as well. Of course, our hitting has lost and won us a few games, too. We need pen help. I was hoping we signed Otavino this past winter (among other suggestions), but I think we should act sooner rather than later. We are seeing teams already making moves and throwing in the towel.

I'm not trying to imply that I am better than anyone else for not being so reactionary, but if some posters had their way, we'd have traded everyone on the team during or right after a long slump.

The problem is, we have a ton of players doing well or very well the last 14-28 days, but we aren't putting it all together to win more games than we have been losing. It's hard to ask for more timely hitting and to stop losing series where we outscore the opponents. I've heard people blame the pen, the bottom of the order, Cora, JD & Betts, but the fact is, we just aren't bunching our hits and walks and taking advantage of good pitching games, when we get them. Numbers in May (Not counting the last 2 games of April that we won by a combined score of 13-5.) Pitching IP/ERA 38.1 Sale 2.82 32.1 Porcello 3.34 30.0 ERod 3.90 17.2 Price 1.53 17.1 Walden 2.08 11.2 Workman 2.31 11.1 Hembree 0.79 9.2 Barnes 1.86 When Eovaldi comes back and we presumably add a RP'er, maybe we'll see less inning from... 18.1 Velazquez 7.85 18.0 Weber 4.50 12.0 Brewer 5.25 10.0 Brasier 7.20 7.0 Thornburg 7.71 7.1 Smith 4.91 4.1 Lakins 8.31 Hitting PAs/ OPS 127 Betts .825 122 Beni .792 121 Devers 1.021 120 Bogey .952 118 Chavis .788 103 JD M .884 93 JBJ .843 78 Vaz .957 72 Moreland .928 (on IL) Bench 56 Pearce .664 (on IL) 50 Nunez .614 41 Leon .618 (went 3-3 in June) 12 Holt .583 Our top 9 PA players were all over .788 and 7 were over .825. I'm not sure we can hope for better from our top playing players: we just need them to put it all together and create wins.

The Weber loss? One, maybe 2? How many games did the pen lose, because they were called upon early in so many games due to starter ineffectiveness or having to start Weber, Smith & Velazquez so many times? IP per GS 5.1 in 2019 5.4 in 2018 5.9 in 2017 Certainly, the SP'ing has done better lately, and the pen has done worse, but the starter IP numbers show they are the ones causing any pen fatigue.

Me too, and I'm pissed off, too. I guess I'm just not as reactionary as some.

It just takes a 2-3 week slump and suddenly, it's time to trade him. We'd have nobody left, if we did that with every slumping player over the course of a season or two.

Let's not forget that before these 4 straight losses, we had gone 18-8, including losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros while outscoring them, losing an 11 inning game to Colorado 5-4, and losing 6 of those 8 games by just 1-2 runs. If we go 18-8 again, starting now, how will this board react?

I'd have rather added a pen arm than Pearce, but I undertsnad why we signed him: Moreland on the IL again was a good reason.

We actually didn't have Eovaldi and Pearce this time last year, so the differences are: No Kimbrel, Kinsler & Kelly Added (since first half of last year): Eovaldi, Pearce, Chavis, Brasier, Weber

I screwed up somewhere in my game by game summary and have us at 30-29 not 29-29, but the net totals are as such: 29 Losses: 18.5 are more the starter's fault 10.5 are more the reliever's fault 30 Wins: 11.5 are more due to the starter 18.5 are more due to the reliever Net: SP: -7.0 RP: +8.0 Can we stop blaming the pen?

Games 46-57 Game by Game ER/IP(SP vs Pen) W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 W 12-2 Price 0/5 2 unearned- Pen 0/4 L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5 L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 Summary 6 Losses 3 SP 1 RP 2 Shared 7 Wins 3 SP 2 RP 2 Shared Summary SP: 0.0 RP: +1.0

Games 31-45 Game by Game ER/IP(SP vs Pen) W 7-3 (pen game) Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) Shared? W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3 L 4-1 JSmith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 W 8-5 (pen game) Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (Close to shared win) W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 5 Losses 3 SP 2 RP 10 Wins 3 SP 7 RP Summary SP: 0.0 RP: +5.0

Games 16-30 Game by Game ER/IP(SP vs Pen) W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (pen did well) L 8-1 (pen game) Velz 1/3- Pen 7/6 L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 L 4-2 (pen game) Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 Summary 7 Losses 3 SP 3 RP 1 Shared 8 Wins 4 SP 4 RP Summary SP +0.5 RP +0.5

First 15 Games Game by Game ER/IP(SP vs Pen) 1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 Summary: 9 Losses 6 SP'er was most responsible 3 Shared responsibility SP & RP 6 Wins 1 SP'er most responsible 5 RP'er Most responsible Net (counting shared as 1/2 each) SP: -6.5 RP: +3.5

2017-2019 Pen and SP'ers ERA 2017>2018>2019 SP 4.06> 3.77> 4.76 RP 3.15> 3.72> 4.02

SP'er ERA from 2017 to 2019: Starter 2017>2018>2019 (May 2019) Sale 2.90> 2.11> 4.35 (2.82) Price 3.38> 3.59> 2.83 (1.53) Porc. 4.65> 4.28> 4.76 (3.34) ERod 4.19> 3.82> 5.04 (3.90) 5th SP: Pom 3.32> Eov 3.33/Johnson 4.17> Velaz. 5.97 (7.85)

Human nature.

Trading the two players who are currently at their all time low trade value makes no sense. ERod is having a bad year, but he's a hell of a pitcher, is under team control for 2.7 more years and is our lowest paid SP'er. JBJ will be expensive next year. I doubt his trade value is high enough to make up for the losing him, even if he gets over .700 at trade time. If we are out of it at the deadline, then I can see trading him, but 1) he has to get over .700 to be worth anything and 2) we have to get something worthwhile to do it. Big if, for me, IF we are out of it by the deadline, okay- trade all the FAs-to- be:Porcello, MolrelandNunez, Pearce, Holt and JBJ with his one expensive arb year left. I'm not sure packing in 2020 is the best idea, but if do a fire sale and look to reset in 2020, which kind of go hand-in-hand in some ways, then maybe we trade some one like JD or Price, so we can reset and keep Betts at the same time.

I think we should try to trade for a RP'er, now. If it doesn't help over the next 6 weeks, we will know more than if we go 6 weeks without a solid pen addition to then decide.

Sale as closer would be the worst possible move I can think of.

We got guys getting 2-3 hits almosr every game, but they are always spread out, never bunched together, and never when we need them most. I don't blame the line-up, because there's no rhyme or reason to who will hit well, and who won't. Let's compare 2017 OPS to 2019: 2019 Player 2017 (+ or -) .896 Devers .819 (+.077) .890 JD M n/a (Young .709) .888 Bogey .746 (+.142) .875 Betts .803 (+.072) .870 Moreland .769 (+.101) .853 Chavis n/a (Pedey .760) .834 Vaz .735 (+.099) .773 Beni .776 (-.003) .612 JBJ .726 (-.112) .585 Leon .644 (-.059) .493 Nunez .892 (-.399) .404 Holt .548 (-.144) I keep hearing we are regressing to our norm, but if 2017 was "the norm", most key players are doing better than 2017- a year we won the division. It's timely hitting and our pitchers, and not just the pen, that has kept us down. Our starters improved over the first 2-3 weeks, but they are still far away from where they were last year or 2017.