moonslav59

Yup. I'm not saying they'd hit .205, but they could probably still field better than Nunez and Holt.

The jury is still out on some deals...like Buttrey for Kinsler, but not really any of the major ones, except maybe Pom.

I was kind of half-joking, although his bat would outweigh the differential between his defense and Nunez at 2B. Holt is not all that great on defense, either. A hobbled Pedey is an unknown on D. Yes, I'd prefer Travis at 3B on D over Devers and Nunez.

You also see guys like Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel play forever. They could probably still play today.

Our best hope for a ML player by 2019 to 2020 are probably these: Age 23 Chavis (upside a 6 on soxprospects.com) 21 D Hernandez (6) 23 Dalbec (6) 22 Houck (6) 23 Chatham (5) 24 Shawaryn (5) 24 Lakins (5) maybe... 20 Groome (6) 21 Feltman (6) 22 Duran (5)

When it comes to the Sox, I think I'm a pretty big optimist. When the team is doing poorly, it sometimes feels like I'm one of just a select few that try to keep the faith. There are many examples of me thinking we will have a good to great year, and we sucked or did much worse than I expected. I've had times I was very optimistic about our farm and particular players like Cecchini, Owens, Iggy, Kalish, and even guys like Linares and Longhi. I'm actually pretty high on some of our very young prospects, but I guess what kind of bugs me is that I was put down quite a bit for being super high on Espinoza, because he was so far away and a long shot, and now I'm being criticized for not believing in prospects as far away as Espi was and who are not even close to being a top 20 nationally ranked prospect, like he was. I really like Mata and have hopes for Casas and Flores. I may not be as high on Feltman as some seem to be, but I do think he might give us some help in the next 2 years. Danny Diaz is so young (17). There are others like Groome and Houck. Dalbec and D Hernandez. I just don't see anyone jumping out (or up). I hope someone does next year. Actually, I hope 3 or 4 do, but I won't be surprised, if we have 0-1 in the top 100 mid season rankings or pre-season 2020.

Plus, he was a 7th pick in the draft. We won't be seeing any of those for a while (not that it is bad thing!).

How about Travis Shaw at 2B for us?

Good points, as always, but Betts doesn't have to deal with the Machado's of the world trying to take him out.

I wouldn't really call Betts "skinny," not that you did. He's in tremendous shape.

Yes, it can be, as can the foul pole area, but it's so damn far away from the RF'er that there are probably less wall collisions in Fenway's RF than most other parks. Fenway's LF wall and CF triangle are high danger zones.

Do you think our farm outlook is even close to what it looked like 3 years ago? 5 years ago? 7 years ago? I'm not trying to put you down, but I'd like to know why you see things so differently? I get that we seem to have a high quantity of some good upside prospects, mostly who are far from the bigs, and the chances that one or two might rise quicker and steeper than current expectations is not bad, but I'm just curious why you think so differently than national prospect rankings. If you had to put a name to our next Devers or Beni, who would they be?

I think both are damn good and will only get better- perhaps MUCH better! I do think we have a few very young prospects that may become as good as Beni or Devers, but almost all the upside prospects are 2-3 years away and maybe 4. Who could be ready by 2020? D Hernandez? Dalbec? Feltman? Are any of these guys as highly regarded as Devers and Beni were a year or two before they made the bigs?

To me, the ideal situation would be to sign a closer for 2 years and a starter for 1 to 2 years. The problem is, you normally can't get great talent for short term deals. It's a tough call for DD. If he signs a closer and a starter to 3 or more years, and the reste is due after 2020, we can pretty much kiss many of our best stars good-bye. I know, lots of "ifs" there, but if the re-set is real, then our signings have to be strategic and more far-sighted than some of us want to believe.

...and teams that have stacked ML rosters that are harder to quickly crack, even when you are really good.

I have no evidence to back this opinion up, but my guess is smaller players last longer than big bulky ones. The only argument I see as being valid on Betts and longevity is the way he plays the game all out. That does increase the odds of multiple injuries or one big one, but I think Fenway's RF may be one of the safest places to play, since you are so far away from any walls and other players or infield collisions.

Young talent acquired by year: 2010: Workman, Raunado, Brentz (all comp picks) Bogaerts IFA Iggy & Montas IFA (traded for Peavy who got us Hembree) 2011: JBJ, Barnes, Swihart (all comp picks- now high ones like these are gone) Betts J Aro IFA 2012: Margot IFA (helped get us Kimbrel) Johnson, Maddox, Buttrey Light (comp pick- traded for Abad) Lin IFA 2013: Devers IFA TBall, Stanki G Bautista IFA Both Basabes (traded) J Guerra (helped to get Kimbrel) D Hernandez IFA 2014 Moncada IFA (traded for Sale) Kopech (comp pick traded for Sale) A Espinoza IFA (traded for Pom) Chavis, S Travis, Shepherd R Castillo IFA 2015 Beni (7th pick- no more of these for a while) Lakins, Poyner 2016: Groome, Chatham, Dalbec Velazquez IFA B Mata IFA 2017 Houck, Brannen, Scherff A Flores, D Diaz IFA 2018 Casas, Decker, Feltman, Durran Now, maybe I'm undervaluing guys like Mata, Casas, Flores, Diaz, Feltman, Groome and Dalbec, but the prospects we acquired from 2016 to 2018 do not seem close to those from the previous era under different rules and circumstances. 2013-2015: Beni, Devers, Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, Chavis and others highly rated enough to trade for useful pieces. 2010-2012: Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Iggy, Margot, Johnson and others. To me, these 3 year groups from before these last years looks way better. granted, this group has not had a chance to prove themselves, but none are as highly rated as many of the other groups had, even when they were very young and far from the majors.

Because Betts is not 6 feet tall, he's doomed to decline quicker than big hefty players? I thought the opposite.

I guess not long enough to get totally stanked out.

Good one. I live in Sugar Land, just soutwest of Houston, and the winds keep us relatively clean, but you are right. It's nasty here and southeast of Houston. There is very little government regulation here. Businesses love Texas.

He may never be missed, but I have to think he had a better upside, and at a position we will need after 2019, than a few guys still on our 40 man roster. Marco Hernandez Sam Travis (I mean, come on!) Chandler Shepherd maybe even ... Robbie Scott, Marcus Walden or Josh Taylor.

...and JD, and Price, and Lackey, and 2 rings Manny...

I might try Britton, if he agrees to a big one year deal. He may agree, in order to build up for a longer term mega deal next winter. I think he will get too much money and too many years for my liking. I'd rather get Eovaldi and Ottavino (or Familia).

Haven't we learned the lesson about how doing one thing that does not work out does not mean never try it again.

Well, he did just have his most consistent 5 consecutive months of his career. Potential does not end at age 28.