moonslav59

...and I think that is part of the reason we all feel like our pen has been much worse than it has been all year. If we could add a solid closer to these guys, we'd be much better: OPS against in Late & Close PAs (7th inning or later with the game tied or within 1 run) OPS pitcher (PAs) .629 Barnes 112 .518 Workman 90 .585 Walden 58 .388 Hembree 27

More than 10 PAs Against... High Leverage: .624 Barnes 76 .583 Workman 64 .835 Brasier 55 .472 Walden 52 .911 Brewer 37 .575 Hembree 25 .661 Velazquez 23 .933 Porcello 69 .770 Sale 59 .813 Price 54 .822 ERod 48 .824 Eovaldi 14

OPS against in Late & Close PAs (7th inning or later with the game tied or within 1 run) OPS pitcher (PAs) .629 Barnes 112 .518 Workman 90 .824 Brasier 78 .585 Walden 58 .388 Hembree 27 .832 Brewer 27 .871 Velazquez 19 .500 Sale 14 1.481 Lakins 14 1.135 Porcello 13 .222 Taylor 9 1.429 ERod 7 .333 Smith 6 1.800 Johnson 5 .000 Thornburg 4 .750 Price 4 4.000 Poyner 2 Many of our worst are the starters or very bottom of the pen. Too bad Hembree got hurt. Maybe he could have become our closer.

How many our 15 blown saves have come in the 9th inning? 4 in 9th 5 in 8th 4 in 7th 1 in 12th 1 in 13th (9 blown saves in 8th and 9th) How many games with 1 or more blown saves? 1 on June 18th Out of the 14 games we had 1-2 blown saves, how many did we end up losing? Only 7. Here's a look at our blown saves by pitcher. Brasier 7 saves/ 3 BS 4/17 L 3-5 (0.2 IP 1 ER 1H 0 BB 2K) 7th inning 5/2 L 4-6 (0.1 IP 3 ER 2H 0 BB 1K) 9th inning 5/28 L5-7 (0.0 IP 3 ER 2H 1 BB 0K) 9th inning Barnes 4 saves/5 BS 4/20 W 6-5 (1 IP 1 ER 1 H 0 BB 3K) 8th 4/21 W 4-3 (1 IP 1 ER 1 H 1 BB 2K) 8th 5/15 W 6-5 (0.1 IP 0 ER 1 H 0 BB 1K) 7th 6/10 L 3-4 (0.2 IP 2 ER 3H 1 BB 1K) 9th 6/22 L 7-8 (0.2 IP 3 ER 2 H 2 BB 1K) 8th Workman 2 saves/ 3 BS 5/14 L 4-5 (1.0 IP 2 ER 2H 0 BB 2K) 8th 6/12 W 4-3 (1.1 IP 0 ER 0H 1BB 2K- 1 unearned run) 7-8th 6/18 L 3-4 (1.0 IP 1 ER 1 H 2 BB 2K) 8th Hembree 1 sv/ 1 BS 5/22 W 6-5 (2.0 IP 1 ER 1H 0 BB 3K) 12th Walden 1 Sv/ 2 BS 5/19 W 6-5 (2.0 IP 1 ER 4H 1 BB 3K) 9-10th 6/16 W 8-6 (1.2 IP 1 ER 1H 1 BB 1K )7-8th Velazquez 0 sv/ 1 BS 6/18 L 3-4 (4 IP 1 ER 3H 0BB 3K) 13-16 innings Smith 1 sv/ 0 BS So, basically, we've lost 7 games due to blown saves. We've won 7 games after blowing a save and many games won with our pen saving the game or holding the lead. Then there are many games where our pen got the win after our offense brought us back from a deficit brought on by our starter.

True, and I'm hoping we can find deals more like the Eovaldi and Reed ones than to try and get Wil Smith for our top propsects.

I don't agree on knucklers being any more of a crapshoot than other pitchers. Wright has been one of our most consistent pitchers- when healthy. I'd have no problem DFA'ing Thornburg and trading Johnson, even if just for scarps, if it meant opening up a roster slot for a solid RP'er (or two).

Dalbec plus DHern or Duran could get us something very nice.

No doubt! We need pen help, but it seems like you only talk about the pen's blown saves and do not recognize how many games the pen has won for us while being overworked. Yes, starters don't go as deep anymore, but ours have gone less than the norm.

I wasn't saying I wanted to trade Casas, but if we want a guy like Wil Smith, he will probably have to head the offer.

Great post! Is it DD's fault our rotation and top or the order have declined so sharply? (This question is not directed at you.) On the bright side, we finally have the balanced line up many felt was essential to winning rings. How has that worked out for us?

Are we willing to part with Casas? Does some GM really like Groome, Duran or DHernandez? We can make trades like the Addison Reed trade, but would making 2 deals like that be enough?

The starters have lost more games than the pen. Don't ignore all their plane crashes.

I don't see any of them as being our equals, but we have to play more to our potential to beat them all out. If we can't beat CLE, OAK & TEX then we don't deserve a trip to the playoffs.

That's how I see it, but I'd like to see him get one long before the trade deadline. Maybe he's waiting for Wright, and the roster restrictions due to several marginal players being out of options, but we could trade an out of options pitcher plus a decent prospect for a solid pen arm. Pitchers out of options: Thornburg Johnson Wright Workman

I think they have, to date,performed better than expected and better than their past careers indicated they would perform. This is on DD not Cora. Cora has gotten the most he could possibly get out of this group of journeymen headed by one good set up man (Barnes before this year).

$4-6M is enough to get a very good RP'er or two solid one when you figure we only pay 1/3 of their contracts, or we get the other team to pitch in cash like we got with Eovaldi last year.

Because we tend to just remember the blown saves and pen meltdowns. We forget this... 8 Games where the starter got a -2 and we won. 3 Games where the starter got a -1 and we won. 5 Games where a starter got a 0 and we won. That's 11 game of negative performance by our starters and the pen were big in getting us a win, and it is 16 games without aplus performance from our SP'ers, yet we still won. That's equal to our blown save total, but we don't remember the good 16- just the bad 16 (BTW, some games we had multiple blown saves, so the pen did not lose 16 games with 16 blown saves.)

Maybe something like this would give us LASTING ENERGY.

Barnes has been one of the best set-up men in MLB for 2-3 years. He's looking bad now, but he's not a journeyman. Workman and Walden are having career years, but I agree in calling them journeymen. Brasier was always a wing and a prayer. Hembree is a journeyman. We have to hope Wright is in top form, and we luck out on whoever we end up trading for. It's not impossible. If Eovaldi comes back to form, we can maybe get by with just one of the above. Most championship teams win despite an area with journeymen.

The pen is doing about the same as last year, without all the blown saves, but also with several games where they clearly went above and beyond to get us a win or keep us from losing. Pen 2018 vs 2019: WHIP: 1.29- 1.32 ERA-: 83-84 SIERA: 3.70-3.85 K/BB: 0.98-1.19 W-L: 40-16 - 20-10 (Prorate to ~40-20) Sv: 46- 16 (Prorate to ~33) WAR: 3.8 - 2.9 (Prorate to ~5.8) xFIP: 4.05- 4.18 xFIP-: 96-92 IP 587.1- 303.2 (Prorate to ~610) Other than the saves issue, the numbers are very close, and when you figure offense is up league-wide,one could argue they look about equal-- by the numbers. That being said, I'll take the 2018 pen over this one.

My guess is, if we were playing like the Guardians, A's Rangers or White Sox, even more poster would have already jumped of the wagon or would be hanging on by a thread.

Alternative Pitcher Scoring System: + 2 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 5 or more innings, 2.00 for 4 or less innings, 1.00 for 3 or less innings or 0.00 for 2 or less innings +1 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 4.2 or less innings. 0 for any game where their ERA is between 3.01 and 4.50. -1 for any game where their ERA is between 4.51 and 6.00. -2 for any game over 6.01 1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R -2) 2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2) 3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-2/R+2) 4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 (S-2/R+2) 5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 (S-2/R-2) 6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 (S-1/R+2) 8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 (S-2/R +2) 9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 (S-2/R-2) 10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 (S-1/R+1) Sub Total: SP -14/ RP +7 11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 (S+2/R+2) 12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 (S-2/R+2) 13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 (S-2/R+2) 14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 (S+2/-2) 15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R-2) 16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 17. L 8-1 Velaz 1/3- Pen 7/6 (S+1*/R-2) 18. L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2) 19. L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 (S+2/R-2) 20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-1/R+2) Sub Total: SP +0/ RP +0 21. W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 (S+0/R-2) 22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 (S+2/R+2) 23. L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 (S+2/R-2) 24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 (S-2/R+2) 25. W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 (S+2/R-2) 26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 (S+0/R+2) 27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/S+2) 28. L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0) 29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 (S-2/R+2) 30. W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 (S+2/R-2) Sub Total: SP +8/ RP +2 31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 (S-2/R+2) 32. L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) (S+0/R-2) 33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1) 34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1) 35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3(S+2/R+2) 36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 (S-2/R+2) 37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 (S-2/R+0) 38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2) 39. W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0) 40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 (S-1/R+0) Sub Total: SP+7/RP +8 41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2) 42. L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 (S+2/R-2) 43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2) 44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 (S-2/R+2) 46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S+0/R+2) 47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unearned)- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2) 48. L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2) 49. W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 (S+2/R+0) 50. W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1) Sub Total: SP +6/ RP +9 51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 52. L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 (S+0*/R+1) 53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/R+2) 54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 (S+1/R+2) 55. L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 (S+2/R-2) 56. L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5(S-2/R-2) 57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 (S+0/R+2) 58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 (S-2/R+2) 59. W 8-5 Price 2/6.1- Pen 3/2.2 (S+2/R-2) 60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1 (S+2/R+1) Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +6 61: W 8-0 KCR: Sale 0/9.0 (S+3**) 62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2 IP 3 (S-2/R+1) 63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0 (S+0/R+1) 64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith 4/4.0 IP- Pen 4/5.0 IP (S-2/R-2) 65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2) 66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1 (S-2/R+0) 67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 0/7.0- Pen 3/4.0 (S+2/R-2) 68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3/3- Pen 5/6.0 (S-2/R-2) 69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1 (S+2/R+2) 70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9 (S-2/R+3**) Sub Total: SP -1/ RP +3 71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 1/7- Pen 1/2.0 (S+2/R+0) 72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2) 73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0 (S+1/R+1) 74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2) 75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1 (S+2/R+2) 76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+0/R+2) 77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unearned)/ Pen 1/5.0 (S+0/R+2) 78: L 8-7 TOR: Johnson 0/5.0- Pen 7/4.0 (S+2/R-3**) 79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0 (S-2/R+1) 80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S-2/R+2) Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +11 81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2) 82: L 8-7 CWS: Sale 5/6.0-Pen 3/3.0 (S-2/R-2) The pen has never been minus in any 10 game segment. The season totals after 79 games: SP +20 RP +46

Okay, but then subtract a point when they pitch poorly and the pen keeps the team in for the win. I only give the pen credit for the win and no deductions are made for a poor start.

It's just two games. A team can go 30-8 and still have a 2 games losing streak withing that frame.

I based it almost totally on ERA. If a starter went 6 IP and let up 3 ERs and the pen went 3 with 1 ER, I gave it to the pen, but I'd be okay with calling it 0.5 to 0.5. I tried to give the benefit of doubt to the SP'er, if it was close. Point out a game you feel I was wrong, and we'll talk.