Lord Snow

The Sox have a need in right field. Right field at Fenway is being known for being a little more challenging to handle than most right fields in baseball. There are lot of options for the outfield that will seemingly be overpaid this off-season. Torii Hunter is off the table. The Cody Ross negotiations aren't going anywhere. Ichiro represents a low-cost option for the Sox. We all know he is an above average defender, even at age 39. At the plate he has never been a great OBP or SLG guy but he showed last year with the Yankees he could still hit for average. He still has decent speed. And the Red Sox seemingly need a leadoff hitter (with Jacoby likely moving to the middle of the order in 2013). If Ichiro can go .300/.340/.400 I'd be okay with him batting leadoff. He wouldn't be ideal, but maybe he could bridge the gap until Jackie Bradley is ready. The Sox can almost certainly get him for 1-year $5M if they guarantee him a starting job and let him bat leadoff.

Napoli for 5 years is a bad move. Besides the fact that they put a Red Sox uniform on a Red Sox killer I don't like the idea of signing him to a contract longer than 3 years. Numbers haven't really been thrown around, but guaranteeing more than $40M to Mike Napoli isn't a move that I'm happy with as a fan. This is a guy who hit .227 in 2012 and .238 in 2010 but had a career year in 2011 which he is unlikely to repeat as it was a massive outlier from his career numbers. If the Sox go 5-years $50M or higher on Napoli I think I'll vomit. I don't like seeing .230 hitters come to the plate every third inning and I don't want to see it for half a decade. What is he worth? I'd say about 3-years $33-36M.

Its wrong to expect 200 innings out of John Lackey. He is coming off MAJOR surgery, at a relatively advanced age to have had TJ. Most of the guys who have success after TJ are in their early-to-mid 20s at the time of the surgery, Lackey is what, 33 or 34? I don't expect him to make it through the whole season in the rotation. Nor would I be surprised to see him make 6 starts and pitch 30 innings this season and spend most of it on the DL. 200 innings is a tall order for a guy in his mid-30s coming back from having his elbow reconstructed.

I totally disagree. He is only 32-years-old (and will be for the duration of 2013) and has been consistent over the past 4 years. Realistically, he is only worth 3-years $33M, but he is a free agent. And Major League free agents are almost always overpaid (unless you wait for February-March and jump all over the leftovers at a bargain). I would be happy with signing him for $3-years $45M or $4-years $44M and throw him some vesting options to sweeten the pot a bit. I don't see how the Sox compete next season without signing Swisher or Hamilton and without making a trade (which Cherington has been disinclined to do, at least publicly). They are in dire need of the production. If they can get Swisher for under $50M guaranteed I think they need to do it. My biggest concern is that he gets himself a Jayson Werth-like contract from a bad team.

The fact that Swisher has had October struggles does not mean he can't hit in the postseason. That's like saying "he can't hit in July", but he's fine the other 5/6 months. In fact, most hitters have worse postseasons than regular seasons because they're facing better pitching on a more frequent basis which is why those teams got to October. Swisher is a solid regular season contributor. Getting on base at a career .361 clip is a very important stat, as is his .820+ OPS over the last 4 seasons. A player like that will help you win a lot of ball games. Hamilton is a good move. The Sox have the money to spend and I don't think Hamilton is stupid. He knows that his numbers were helped by playing in Texas, as they will be at Fenway. Which makes Boston a good place for him to play. It's hard to know what the market is for Hamilton since nothing has really been reported except for saying he is seeking 7-years $175M which we all know is never going to happen. I like him at 3-years $75M + $25M vesting option or 4-years $80M + $20M vesting option.

Haren is must-sign for the Red Sox. There are concerns about his medical sure, but the Sox need the pitching depth. For a guy who has a bad back he had a good September, which is important, 3.07 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 29 1/3 IP, 23 K, 5 BB, 5 starts. I'll take that as a good indicator that he was feeling better at the end of last season and therefore it makes him worth a look. Why not throw 1-year $10M at him with $7.5M in performance bonuses? That should get it done. If we can afford to budget $8.1M for two backups who are unlikely to do diddly to improve the Red Sox next season (D Ross, & J Gomes) why can't we guarantee Haren $10M? He just might be an ace. At worst he might reproduce 2012 which wasn't all that bad, it just wasn't Haren good.

I see Nick Swisher as a must sign for the Red Sox. OPS over .800 in each of the past 4 seasons, career .361 OBP, 32-years-old. He plays a variety of positions where the Red Sox have holes. He can slot at first base or in the outfield if necessary. His price tag is not expected to be outrageous. I would happily take him for 3-years $45M with a 4th year option or 4-years $60M. I'd even consider going 5 years for him in necessary (in which he would be signed through his age 36 season). Swisher is a consistent player who stays healthy and posts very respectable offensive numbers. Swish would be smart move for the offensively lacking Red Sox.

The Gomes signing was a bad one because he was overpaid. His 2012 campaign was not incredible and he in no way deserved a 2-year deal. Nobody else was going to give him that kind of money. At 1-year $5M it's an okay move, but 2 years is just a joke. There is a major possibility that this guy comes out and is dead wood in 2013 and the Sox are stuck with him all year, and next, or they have to bite the bullet and eat $8-9M. People point to his numbers versus left-handed pitching and act like platoons always work out ideally. When in fact quite the opposite is true. Part-time players almost never post elite numbers. Somebody like Gomes will post good numbers versus lefties if he gets to play everyday and face right handed pitchers too, but in all likelihood his numbers against left handed pitching will be marginalized in a limited part-time role. He is not a Cody Ross. Ross posted better numbers against lefties, and he was a very good outfielder. Something Gomes simply is not. Gomes is a bad outfielder, one of the worst defensive players in major league baseball. The Sox probably face a lefty starter 2/5 games so you're going to have Gomes on the bench 3/5 games? He is useless as a defensive replacement and a pinch runner. I'd rather have Ichiro for 1-year $5M on my bench, at least he can pinch run and play all 3 defensive positions and he can pinch hit too.

Anibal Sanchez is the best free agent pitcher the Sox can pursue this off-season. Zack Greinke has anxiety issues and doesn't like to talk to the media which makes him a poor fit for Boston. Sanchez hasn't posted an ERA north of 4 since 2008; however, he has never pitched 200 innings in a season, although he has come close in the past 3 seasons. He is probably worth 4-years $60M. I'd take him at 5-years $75M. He has a long injury history but has made 30+ starts in each of the last 3 seasons and was a beast in October with the Tigers. The Red Sox have the money to spend. Sanchez is the best option out there for the Sox. Paying him is a worthwhile gamble. Especially considering I've got little confidence in the starting rotation outside of Lester and Buchholz. Lackey, at his age, coming off TJ, his physique... I wouldn't be surprised if he throws less than 30 innings this season. Doubront showed some promise in 2012 but needs refinement. It's a mistake to expect him to be any better than a #4 or #5 in 2013. If he breaks out and posts a sub-4 ERA with 200 innings then that's great but the Sox definitely can't count on that. Cherington has been very frugal when it comes to signing players (except he likes to overpay back-ups for some reason) so I wouldn't be surprised if he lays out an offer like 4-years $56M take it or leave it.