Lord Snow

Clay Buchholz has certainly had his struggles in a Red Sox uniform. But last year he was arguably a #1 after he got through the first two months of the season (and if you forget his October start). June: 4 starts, 30 IP, 25K, 5 BB, 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP July: 4 starts, 29.1 IP, 19K, 7 BB, 2.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP August: 5 starts, 36.1 IP, 24K, 8 BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP (tattooed for 7 ER in 5 innings on Aug 22) September: 5 starts, 35.2 IP, 26 K, 13 BB, 3.03 ERA 1.18 WHIP In all 4 of those months Buchholz averaged over 7 innings pitched per game. His ERA and WHIP were highly respectable. If he can stay healthy and do that for a whole season he will have a Cy Young award at the end of it.

The Red Sox don't need to add another relief pitcher. They just non-tendered Scott Atchison. Probably because they don't have a role for a pitcher who is coming off a sub-2 ERA season with a sub-1 WHIP in 50 innings pitched. The bullpen, at least on paper, is looking solid for 2013 assuming most of the talent is capable of putting up similar numbers in 2013 and Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, and Andrew Bailey bounce back.

I can't believe Scott Atchison is getting non-tendered. He was such a good pitcher for the Red Sox last season. Those who are saying Papelbon isn't different from other relievers clearly don't know a thing about baseball. How many active relief pitchers, lets not even talk about closers here, have that kind of consistency for 7 straight years? I would love the Papelbon naysayers to answer that question for me. I'll bet there are no more than 4-5 them, if even that many.

Papelbon was different from most relievers. He was babied by the Red Sox organization. He seldom, if ever, was leaned on during his tenure in Boston. For 4-years $50M he should have been kept in Boston. I never understood letting him walk. Yes, he was expensive. But at the same time I remember the revolving door at the back of the bullpen before Papelbon came along and was an anchor for 6 years.

Agreed. Why would anybody even suggest that the Sox sign Madson? There is no need there. The Red Sox have plenty of options for the bullpen. It's the one area on the team that didn't need improvement last season. If anything for the first time in a very long time the Sox have a surplus of quality relievers. The main needs are in the rotation. Which is in need of a major overhaul, especially with the subtraction of Josh Beckett. Outside of Buchholz & Lester there really isn't anybody reliable and even that is banking on Buchholz not taking 2 months to get going, and Lester returning to prime form. And obviously there are holes in the offense.

I think a prime way the Sox could further rebuild their farm system is to trade their stocked bullpen for quality prospects. Viable options for next year's Red Sox bullpen: Daniel Bard Junichi Tazawa Andrew Bailey Andrew Miller Scott Atchison Craig Breslow Alfredo Aceves Vincente Padilla Franklin Morales Franklin Morales had a lot of success as a starting pitcher but I don't see him as a long-term solution in the Boston rotation. Atchison's trade value has never been higher nor has Andrew Miller's. There has been rumors of Aceves being shipped out of town (although he would be sold low after 2012). I'd be happy with a Sox bullpen built around a core of Bard, Bailey, Tazawa, and Padilla. Heck, I'd even be okay with them keeping Aceves. Tazawa is the only guy I wouldn't part with if I were Ben Cherington. Sell high on all the guys that can be sold high, keep the guys coming off bad years.

All the same. There is big money in TV. The Red Sox need to field a team that people will watch 162 days a year otherwise they'll see their profits go out the window.

I disagree. The money in the tv ratings just as much as the ticket sales, if not more. The Sox own NESN. If the team is bad, less people watch, and that is less money NESN can charge for advertising. The Red Sox will have a healthy payroll next season. I'm guessing it will be at least $150M, things just haven't taken shape yet.

Of course Cherington isn't going to have free reign. He is a second year GM with no track record of success. In fact 2012 turned out to be a very bad rookie campaign for him. Although he will get a mulligan from upper management because he cleaned out a lot of Theo's mess and essentially saved the near future of the club. Adrian Gonzalez struggled mightily in 2012, and definitely didn't live up to the $22M/year he is getting paid. He wasn't a bad player but to me he just wasn't worth the money. I'm a firm believer that $20M+/year offensive players need to produce absolute minimums of .280/.360/.500 to be worth their contract last season Gonzalez didn't hit any of those totals, he did in 2011 but he produced well above his career averages as well which is largely unsustainable. And Carl Crawford? He is overpaid by about $11M per year. At 7-years $70M he wouldn't have been a bad signing. But his contract is just ludicrous. It's the type of contract that handcuffs a team for the better part of a decade. Good riddance. The pressure is definitely on Cherington. He has immense payroll flexibility and only one bad contract in John Lackey (2 if you count Jonny Gomes) who is manageable owed only $31M over the next 2 years.

Bourn is going to get overpaid too. Go back to my quote about a .360+ OBP. Bourn has never achieved that for a full season in the major leagues. Major pros are his speed and defense. But he is a lifetime .272/.339/.365/.704 and for the most part he has remained true to those averages throughout his career. What is he worth? I'd value him at about 3-years $30M and not a penny more because he is very average at the plate (in terms of AVG and OBP) but has well below average power. Plus speed and defense alone aren't worth $15M per year to me. I'm well aware that he may well go for 6-7 years $100M but whoever signs him to that deal will live to regret it. If somebody is lightning fast, plays great defense, and gets on base at a .365 clip but has no power you don't hesitate to sign him to a 6-year $100M contract because he will be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. But Upton, Bourn, & Crawford... 3 subpar everyday players.

I know what they'll be seeing a year from now, a bad contract for a player who isn't very productive. For some reason GMs continue to overvalue numbers like stolen bases. As if teams win a lot of games because their players steal a lot of bases. Guaranteeing $75M to this guy is a total joke, as was guaranteeing Carl Crawford $142M. They simply cannot live up to those contracts. To be worth more $15M+ per year a player needs to have at least a .360 OBP otherwise they will never be able to live up to the value of their contract, and you can quote me on that.

Okay, I totally retract what I said about Saltalamacchia's trade value. The Braves just gave B.J. .255/.336/.422/.758 Upton a 5-year $75.25M contract! WHAAAT?! B.J. Upton, he sucks, bad. Pros: plus defense, plus speed, plus power Cons: bad hitter for contact, bad patience, bad eye, below average overall at the dish Now, defense and speed aren't what drive up the price on a player. So that means there should be a decent market out there for Salty, particularly for teams who lost out on Upton. At the plate, Salty and BJ Upton are virtually identical.

Lavarnway has had major struggles at the plate in the Majors but the front office believes in him. Starting him in AAA doesn't seem like a horrible idea. Then if he gets off to a good start call him up anytime and hope he can stick in the big leagues. Salty has had a pretty good SLG in his 2 full seasons in Boston, about .450 each year. So his power is definitely for real. If only Salty could get his OBP to .350 he would be such a keeper.

Hmm.. Cherington certainly has motivation to trade him. But what can the Sox realistically expect to get for him? I would say a quality middle reliever, but the Sox really don't need bullpen help. It's one of the few areas where there aren't any gaping holes (the closer issue can probably be solved internally by either Bard, Bailey, or Tazawa). The only way I see Salty being moved is if there is an old school GM who gets overzealous because of those 25 home runs and is willing to trade one or two top 100 prospects to the Sox in exchange for Salty. Which is something that I'm not sure will happen.

What happened to the fans in Boston? They used to be loyal to their players. Lester was a stud for 4 seasons, for the most part everyone loved him, then he has one bad year and everyone is ready to put him on the next flight out of town. It doesn't make sense. Players have bad years. Often they bounce back. Same thing will Ellsbury, everyone hated him, then he was #2 in MVP voting and everyone loved him, then he got hurt, missed half the year, and came back to a sub-par performance and everyone wants him on the first flight out of town.

I'm getting a vibe that the big money isn't out there for free agents this off-season. I understand it's still before winter meetings, but there hasn't even been rumors of offers for any of the top free agents which makes me think that Josh Hamilton's 7-year $175M contract isn't happening, nor is Zack Greinke's 6-year $160M contract (or whatever his camp is trying to sling). I haven't boo on Anibal Sanchez either.

I like Ichiro in RF, Swisher at 1B, and Hamilton in LF. At a maximum the three of them will cost $50M per season. Do that and your opening day starters could be: 1B: Swisher 2B: Pedroia 3B: Middlebrooks SS: Iglesias RF: Ichiro CF: Ellsbury LF: Hamilton C: Salty Two weak hitters in the line-up in Salty and Iglesias but Salty has the threat of 25 home run pop which means pitchers must treat him with a little more respect than your average .225 hitter.

Yes. As a Sox fan I have to consider Lester a quality starter. The 2013 season is dependent on him regaining his 2008-2011 form. Age is on Lester's side which is a major positive. He had a bad season. But so did the Red Sox. Lester didn't have much to pitch for. I thought the team as a whole gave up last year. Now, Lester is a professional and ideally should be pitching his heart out whether his team is 10 games above .500 or 10 games below but he is human. I'm willing to give him a mulligan if he goes out and gives us 220 innings next season like we all know he can.

It wouldn't be a bad idea for the Red Sox to go out and maybe trade for Johan Santana this off-season. The Mets would probably welcome the opportunity to get rid of his contract (he's owed $31M through 2013; $25.5M in 2013 + $25M club option with $5.5M buyout for 2014). Santana pitched well during the first half of 2012 but an ankle injury and a back injury destroyed his second half and ultimately ended his season early. I'm encouraged by the fact that his arm is okay. The Sox have the money to spend and Santana threw 103 innings before the ASB with a 3.24 ERA. I'd like that kind of production on the Sox. Complete fringe trade idea, but I'd be happy with it.

Lester is not on the block. The Red Sox only have 2/5ths of the rotation filled with quality arms. Do you really think they're looking to make it 1/5th? While the deal would be attractive to a team with 5 or 6 good options for the rotation the Sox simply cannot afford to part with Lester or Buchholz this offseason. No way.

" Zack Greinke's camp predicts the talented veteran will not only become the richest right-hander in history, but may also surpass Cole Hamels' $153MM contract, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. " Thats a lot of hot air. That suggests paying him like he has been pitching like the 2009 Cy Young Award winner since 2009. He hasn't. Greinke is a #2 starter, consistent, but a #2. He has one season with a sub-3 ERA. More often than not his WHIP is over 1.2, those aren't the hallmarks of an Ace. Those are not the kind of numbers that earn $25M annually for 6+ years. I predict Greinke to sign for 5-years $87.5M or 6-years $105M. Zack Greinke is not Cole Hamels and will not be paid like Cole Hamels, even if he is the best free agent starting pitcher on the market this off-season. His combined ERA between 2010 & 2011 was OVER 4, and he is coming off a 3.48 ERA season, good, but not great.

The Sox aren't going to want to trade Lackey. If he reestablishes value (e.g. proves to be a pitcher who can go 6-7 innings with a sub-4 ERA consistently) then we are going to need him more than any player(s) we could trade him for. Furthermore, despite the fan base's hatred of Lackey (for obvious reasons) word is that he is a pretty good teammate and clubhouse guy. 150 innings would be great out of Lackey, but I've got major concerns about him, at his age, and coming off TJ. I wouldn't be surprised if he only makes 5 appearances this season.

As somebody pointed out Cody Ross is likely gone. He is looking for 3-years $25M and is likely to get it from somebody. I'll be quick to point out that signing Swisher does not mean no more Cody Ross. Swisher plays league average defense in right field, left field, and at first base. Right now the only one of those slots filled is by Jonny Gomes, presumably in a part-time capacity. This is why I see Swisher as such a vital piece for the Red Sox to sign. They've got 3 holes, of which he is capable of filling any one, and he is a strong offensive player (albeit with some history of October struggles).

2004 & 2007 were built around cornerstone players. Manny & Ortiz in the middle of the order were dynamite. They made the rest of the lineup better. Plus Johnny Damon was a stud at the top. The Sox also had good pitching during those runs. Which was important. The Red Sox have been without a true ace since 07 Beckett. Instead running out a bunch of #2s. The lineup has struggled to replace the Manny & Ortiz of that stretch. Detriot has it now with Cabrera and Fielder and unsurprisingly they were in the World Series.

The Reddick for Bailey trade was a bad move in hindsight. I'm a Josh Reddick fan and I hope he improves next year. But he was a two dimensional player. Great defense in right field is definitely a premium. But offensively his only good stat was that home run total. His stock has definitely improved since the trade but even if the Red Sox still had him I don't think he would be viewed as a long-term option. Similar to Jarrod Saltalmacchia, whose only saving grace was his HR total last season, and is subsequently being shopped this offseason.