Lord Snow

I don't mean to stake a contract on awards. But obviously if you're getting MVP consideration you had a pretty darn good year. I think I tiered system of something like .300+/.400+/.600+/1.000 with 150 games started = $30M bonus .900+ OPS with 150 games started = $25M bonus And so on... different for every person but you get the point. Edit: I think players with big egos would go for deals where they thought they could make $200M (with maybe $40-60M guaranteed) for the lifetime of a contract in favor of $120M guaranteed.

A team should shake up all these guaranteed contracts. Start giving guys like a $5 million base contract with the ability to earn $30M in performance bonuses. You'd overpay some guys but at least you wouldn't get burned by injuries and guys, like Crawford, who suck after the ink on their contract drys. I'd much rather pay an MVP candidate $35M than see Crawford get $20M for doing f--k all.

We are already a poor destination. On paper the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays all look better than us and that's just in our division, forget about the rest of the league.

Evidently the Sox are trying to get Napoli's contract down to a 2-year deal. If that's the case I think it's a good signing by the Sox. I'd be happy with him at 2-years $26-28M. It looks a lot better than 3-years $39M. If only they offered that kind of contract to Victorino. The Victorino deal is reminding me a lot of Julio Lugo deal. Offering a guy a long-term contract who is in decline, when he was in decline the season before he was signed, and then we spend the next years counting down to when the contract expires.

I would define a "can't miss free agent" as a player who has been one of the top players in baseball at their position for the last 2-3 years, is still in his 20s, always had good health (or at least has been very healthy over the last 2-3 years) and with no real reason to expect decline in the near future (example: player is in peak physical condition).

This. Going 5+ years for anyone in their 30s is a mistake. If a player is 30 on the button, its not as big of a gamble. In my experience almost every player experiences noticeable decline by age 36 either in health or performance.

I think if the Mets could give him away for a B or C level prospect or two, and eat less than $5M of the $30-something milllion he owed, I think they would jump all over that.

If the Sox add Santana, everybody stays reasonably healthy, and players bounce back from off-seasons, then they'll have a decent shot at the playoffs. Santana is a true ace. He's an older arm but he still has something left in the tank as he proved last season. Not to mention, the Sox can make Santana a qualifying offer if they trade for him before the season starts. I think it would be a really nice patchwork move by the Sox. Give them a *chance* during a rebuilding time.

Huh? I didn't say Johan Santana. Santana never hit free agency, the Mets traded for him and then extended him. The examples I gave were Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira. My logic for signing guys like that is simple. If an elite player regresses they are generally still above average and worthy of a spot in the line-up. If a mediocre player regresses they end up borderline starters, and sometimes guys who belong on the bench. Mark Teixeira is a perfect example. He hasn't performed as well as the Yankees would have hoped, or what they're paying him for, but he has still been acceptable, and worthy of a 3-5 spot in the line-up.

I gave some examples of "can't miss" free agents. They are few and far between. Which is why team's shouldn't miss the opportunity to sign them when they hit the market. While I don't consider Hamilton to be in that category, I do think he signed for a reasonable enough contract for the Red Sox to have seriously considered him an option. I don't think there would have been many people complaining if the Sox decided to sign Hamilton instead of Napoli & Victorino. In fact, this off-season there were none of the players that I consider to be "can't miss" targets. It was a weak free agent class. Had Matt Cain or Cole Hamels made free agency then they would have been "can't miss" free agents.

Yes we do. Mendoza line average, low OBP, low SLG. Worst everyday major league hitter.

The best way to build a team that contends is to sign "can't miss" free agent bats, and trade prospects for elite, young, starting pitching. The Red Sox got their hands tied up quite a bit with some mediocre contracts. If you look back mediocre contracts almost never pay off. Low-risk cheap gambles (1-year $4-8M) pay far better dividends than signing these players in their early-to-mid-30s to 3-years $30M+ The only time it's really worth signing an SP to a contract worth more than $20M is if an elite arm hits the market (e.g. Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, etc). The same is true of position players. Signing players like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli to $13M/yr contracts year-in and year-out is pissing away money. It makes far more sense to go after the elite hitters. In recent memory Mark Teixeira comes to mind. Now, he has regressed but is still worthy of a spot in the middle of the order. Stay away from big money ($30M+) free agent contracts on players who in their 30s! Then fill in the holes with home grown mediocre talent, and cheap short-term free agents.

After this Stephen Drew signing suddenly Derek Jeter at $15M/year doesn't look so bad.

Anything less than league average defense and an .800 OPS and Drew is not worth the $10M he is being paid. Drew is no slam dunk for an .800 OPS either, I don't even know if we can earmark him for a .700 OPS.

BTW I love how there is currently a "who is worse" argument about Mike Aviles and Stephen Drew. Always what you want to hear after your team spends $10 million on a player.... :/

On what planet is that statistic an argument in favor of a player? A .300 OBP is horrible. Anything less than .340 is not respectable. And that .340 mark should be the lowest that is tolerated in a starting line-up. We put up with Salty because we don't have a better option and he has some pop.

But look at his options for replacement. Do you really want somebody who posts Salty average and Salty OBP with no Salty power? Because thats what you're getting in Lavarnway and Ross. Lavarnway could develop into an average-above average everyday hitting catcher but it hasn't happened yet.

Salty may not be Jason Varitek in his prime, or Yadier Molina, but he is an above average catcher, even if his defense is average at best. There aren't many out there who can hit 25 home runs, that alone makes him a worthwhile threat in the line-up and changes the way that he has to be pitched to. Some of the best Red Sox line-ups have been ones where every player in the line-up was a real threat to go deep. The 2004 Red Sox were one of those teams. And Salty is one of those players. Home runs count for something, and those are the players you need at the plate when you're down a run or two in the 9th.

The Drew signing isn't a bad one. I think he is being overpaid by about $7M but the Sox have the flexibility to give it to him, and he was the "best" free agent SS on the market. When I first heard the reports I was thinking he was getting a 3-year contract considering how many the Sox have dished out to undeserving players this off-season. I feel better a bit better about the Sox's line-up next season. If the Sox can get an .800 OPS out of him it would be a great move, at .750 its still okay, considering the next best option was likely to be Iglesias at .200/.230/.300/.530

Any guesses on the opening day line-up next season? 1. Shane "The Destroyer" Victorino 2. Pedroia 3. Ellsbury 4. Napoli 5. Ortiz 6. Middlebrooks 7. Jonny "Rocket" Gomes 8. Salty 9. Enrique Iglesias SP: Dempster

Nope. The Red Sox are looking like they're done making moves. Cherington might make some cheap SP signing for insurance/depth, but that's about it. Opening day roster looks about set.

The Sox won't sign Swisher for the same reasons they stayed away from Hamilton, Greinke, and Sanchez. They're not looking to compete next season or the year after. Cherington is trying to develop players in the farm system. He doesn't want to lose that 2nd round compensation pick by signing Swisher. He is going to turn that 2nd round pick into an All-Star outfielder, apparently. In all seriousness it looks like they're building a team that isn't going to be a contender in the short term, holding onto prospects, and hoping they become star players and that Sox will have an elite young group of players... I don't see it happening, but who knows.

The Carl Crawford contract is a really bad comparison, because Crawford was incapable of being worth the contract that Red Sox signed him to. His ceiling just doesn't go that high. Hamilton's on the other hand does reach $25M. Nobody is going to complain about Hamilton's contract if he hits .275+, 30+ homers with 100+ RBI and a .900+ OPS next season which is all well within his reach considering they're his career averages. And if he comes out an hits 40+ homers everyone will absolutely love the deal and be praising the Angels for making such a good signing.

One play doesn't define a player defensively. Swisher is an average defender, definitely not a negative in the field. The Sox won't sign him. I think they've sent a pretty clear message this off-season. They're going to sign mediocre/fringe-starters in the hopes of not becoming a joke, but they have no plans to be a perennial playoff contender for another 2-4 years.

The hype to trade Ells for a second rate starting pitcher is senseless. The Red Sox are in the perfect position with him. If he spends most of the year on the DL you make him a qualifying offer and either get him back for 1-year at $14M or let him walk and take the draft pick. Either way the Red Sox make out okay. If he comes out and plays like superman then you make him a market value offer. 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury is easily worth $25M annually. He has a chance to prove that was for real in 2013 just before he hits free agency. People here act like Ellsbury can't possibly be re-signed because he is a Boras client, as if the Red Sox have never signed a Boras client before. That just isn't true. Whenever a player they've been high on has been a Boras client they went out and got him (with Mark Texieria being the only notable exception I can think of and they only missed out on him by something like $10M).