Lord Snow

I know most people here have defended Buchholz but let me just state my observations: Do I think Clay Buchholz is doctoring the baseball? Absolutely not. I don't see abnormal-funky movement on his pitches, and unless he has been doing it since day 1 I tend to think he isn't cheating. Clay has had filthy stuff since he was a rookie and its evidenced by his second career start no-no. His biggest struggles have been staying healthy and consistent. Everybody seemed to think Clay Buchholz was going to lay an egg this season, but I always found those expectations to be unfounded. He was DOMINANT, one of the best pitchers in baseball, from June-September 2012. He had a rough first two months and got tattooed in his final start of the season, but other than that he was a boss for 2/3 of a season! Now he opens the season like a boss, consistent just like he was between June and September 2012, and people accuse him of cheating? I see markedly better control from Buchholz in 2013, just like I saw during that dominant stretch in 2012. He is consistently hitting his spots. He's throwing all his pitches for strikes. That is a very tough combination to beat and the results are there.

per Rob Bradford I think its the right move. Bailey is more likely to have success than Hanrahan in the long-run anyway. Hanrahan is too much of a fastball pitcher. He had success in the NL where just throwing straight 98 MPH gas works. That's the type of approach that gets knocked around in the AL. Its one of the reasons the Red Sox got him on the cheap anyway. Its a shame for him that he got demoted but, like I previously said, I don't think he is a fit for an American League club.

I disagree. OPS is a good indicator of who is better when comparing one elite hitter to another. Slugging, while nice, is only essential for the 3-6 slots in the batting order in my opinion. You can get by without having big time sluggers as long as they are table setters (e.g. 1 & 2 hitters). And average is important, it's become underrated lately but you still need guys who can hit to drive in runs.

To be fair being dropped from 4 to 5 is kind of a useless move. It's not like it's a major demotion say from 4 to 7, 8, or 9. The 5 hole is still a key slot in the batting order. I don't know why people are jumping all over Josh Hamilton. He has been an Angel for 3 weeks. Slumping? Yes. But it's not like he's hitting .100 with 0 RBI. His production has been okay for a slump.

I think Bard doesn't have a strong mental make-up. It didn't help that the Sox jerked him around. He was a fairly dominant reliever, after failing as a minor league starter, and was the heir apparent for the closer role once Papelbon left. Then Cherington decided to throw him into the rotation, which he couldn't have been much of a fan of, then they yanked him from the rotation and relegated him to middle relief. I haven't seen him throw recently so I don't know what his velocity looks like. I thought I read about him throwing in the high 90s not too long ago, but I could be wrong. I'd love to see him bounce back. We could really use the help in the bullpen. Like I said before, I really think the issue with Bard is mental.

Simply put, there is nobody to replace Middlebrooks. I've got confidence in him. He already has 4 home runs! He's just in a bit of an early-season funk. I don't expect anything out of Stephen Drew. That was a bad signing and that will be more apparent as the season goes on. Our best bet at short is either that Jose Iglesias returns and is productive, or Xander Bogaerts becomes MLB ready by mid-season.

I think Bard has been struggling in AA. He has a long road back to the major leagues. His demotion to AA has to be demoralizing, I wouldn't be surprised if he never gets back to the majors, but I hope I'm wrong and he returns as the dominant reliever he once was.

While I'll admit he isn't the ideal corner outfielder because he doesn't possess tremendous power but he does contribute with a decent average and OBP. Those are probably the two most important statistical categories for an offense player to excel in. I'm content with him in the starting line-up everyday as long as his OBP is over .350, like it has been for the last two years. Power and speed are nice to have but I wouldn't take power and speed over AVG and OBP.

I've always found Daniel Nava to be incredibly underrated. He is a good bat and I'm glad he is having early season success. Lets hope he can keep it going for 162+. If he can go .270/.360 I would be happy to have him in the line-up all season and I certainly think he is capable of those numbers. Josh Hamilton will recover and be Josh Hamilton. It's the first month of the season he is still adjusting to a new city, and new teammates. Come the ASB when Josh Hamilton has 20 home runs and 70 RBI I don't think you'll be talking!

I'm a big Allen Webster fan. I think if the Red Sox are going to get anywhere this season he is going to be part of that formula. I don't see Doubront or Lackey sticking in the rotation. Although the early returns on Dempster have been okay I'm not sold on him long-term. Webster is so key to this team so I was glad to see him come out and have a good MLB debut last night. Rubby de la Rosa could also be a key to Red Sox success but he has struggled in AAA. Buchholz is a stud, but I've known that for years. Lester is looking sharp again which is awesome! The offense really seems to be clicking despite the seeming lack of umph. Ortiz's return should only help that.

I'm not overly concerned. While I would love Rubby to become an ace I'm fully aware that he is just a year and a half removed from TJ. He hardly pitched last year and when he did the results weren't very encouraging. It's why the Sox got him so 'cheap'. Prior to the surgery he showed enormous potential at a young age which by all accounts is still present. It could be half a season before he shakes off the rust and gets used to his new arm. I think he will be in Boston before the season is over.

I couldn't agree with you more. I didn't read through the whole thread but here is my 2 cents. Stephen Drew sucks, bad. He lives on the DL, just like his older brother, except he isn't any good when he is on the field. Red Sox fanboys will point to him being slightly above average like 4 years ago before he suffered 16.5 injuries and act like he is THAT player. Jose Iglesias, a guy who has always struggled with the bat, was off to a scorching hot start (yes, luck did play a bit of a role) but even at that he should have been kept in the majors until he cooled off, if he ever cooled off. I'll take Iggy at .270/.320/.400 as my everyday SS in the majors.

Can't expect anything from Lackey this season. He likely had his last significant impact on the club in 2011. Never bank on pitcher coming off any type of throwing arm surgery to have any significant positive impact on his team and you won't end up disappointed. I expect no more than 40 innings out of him this season, and that's a high-end estimate. I really wouldn't mind the Sox turning to Allen Webster in the #5 slot. If they're going to make a run at things this season he will almost certainly have to be a part of that formula.

Yeah, definitely. Kalish was a player that caught a lot of hype but simply never panned out. I'm glad that he is more the exception than the rule. The Sox have been on a bit of a hot-streak when it comes to home-grown talent. It reminds me a lot of the surge from the mid-2000s that produced Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon, Lester, Ellsbury and ultimately the 2007 World Series. Then we kind of dipped into a bit of a prospect dark age where guys like Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson fizzled. The reports on Webster and De La Rosa have been very encouraging. As has the report on Xander Bogaerts. Will Middlebrooks definitely seems to be the real deal, Iglesias has looked fantastic to start the year too, maybe he will finally be able to be a .250+ hitter. I like what Bradley has shown too. Switching gears, what do you think about the Sox trading for one of the Giants' overpriced starters (namely Zito or Lincecum) perhaps a change of scenery could help one of them out in a contract year?

I don't think any Sox fan will deny that the 2013 Red Sox have been a pleasant surprise through the first seven games of the season. Where do you see the Red Sox going to beef up the rotation? Lester and Buchholz have been absolutely fantastic to start the season and are really looking like the 1-2 combo we have have been waiting for them to be. But beyond Lester & Buchholz the rotation is bad, really bad. Will the Sox look to make improvements internally (Allen Webster and/or Rubby de la Rosa)? Or will they look to trade for a quality arm? John Lackey is a bust not one start into 2013, but this was expected. As is typical of guys his age coming off major surgery, he will bounce back and forth from the DL all season, persistently leave games due to injury (like his first start). Dempster looked to be every bit the NL pitcher we were all told that he was. And Felix Doubront is, well, Felix Doubront. I support a May or June promotion for Allen Webster and give him a trial run in the big league rotation. I can't believe I'm saying this but the Sox look so sharp I think they could be one or two sturdy middle-of-the-rotation options away from being a playoff contender, especially with the Yankees' starting lineup on the DL and a diminished Rays team.

I think the Dodgers are already feeling it with Zack Greinke. The guy hasn't even thrown a pitch for them in a game that counts and he is already having elbow issues. That contract has the potential to turn out worse than Lackey's! That team just looks bloated. No contract given to a player like Pujols will ever be worthwhile, the Yankees are seeing that first hand with A-Rod, the Angels should have taken notes. Pujols is too old and on the decline and now LAA owns him for what, NINE more years? Pujols would have made more sense on a Josh Hamilton-like contract a bloated AAV in exchange for shorter term.

The Sox are in an excellent position with Ellsbury. So far Ells is off to a strong, start, if he continues and has a good season I think he gets a good contract. If he misses loads of time the Sox make him a 1-year offer for cheap money. If he plays out the whole year and is below average (.270/.310/.400) he gets an offer that reflects that performance. The power in 2011 was for real, I have no doubt about that. He just needs to rediscover that stroke he had in the second half. I'll predict Ellsbury at .300/.370/.480/.850 with 20-25 HR, 30+ SB, 80+ RBI and gold glove defense. If he does that I'll be okay with $20 million/year for 5-7 years.

I feel very good about the 2014 Red Sox. I think the Red Sox have a nice group of young prospects who could have a major impact in the big leagues, led by Bogaerts and Bradley. The Red Sox lack middle of the order bats to complement their young studs, assuming they become quality major leaguers. I'm thinking a best case scenario is the resurgence of Jacoby Ellsbury in 2013 to 2011 production and the Red Sox sign him to 7-years $175M to shore up one of the 3 or 4 slots in the middle of the order. I don't know that I ever see Middlebrooks growing into a 3 or 4 hitter. He never displayed the on base discipline in the minor leagues needed for those slots. He reminds me of a good 5 or 6 hitter.

Finally some good news in Boston! And unfortunately for y'all it brings Lord Snow back to the board! The Red Sox have 5 prospects on BBA's top 100 list for 2013, and one in the top 10! It's about time! 8. Xander Bogaerts 31. Jackie Bradley 40. Matt Barnes 49. Allen Webster 91. Henry Owens I'm not sold on Allen Webster. If he gets off to a hot start I think the Sox should try to package him in some sort of trade. Pitchers with bad control scare me and generally don't make good major leaguers plus Webster is at an advanced stage of the minor leagues so he is unlikely to improve it all that much moving forward. I like the rest though. Bogaerts, seems to be the real deal and its about time the Sox could use a star player. Jackie Bradley could be the next Ellsbury. Barnes & Owens we will have to see but both have great potential.

I absolutely love the Napoli signing. $5M guaranteed? With $8M in incentives? Sounds like a great deal to me. Of course the drop from $39M guaranteed to $5M suggests there might be something seriously wrong with his hip, but hopefully that isn't the case.

My point is simply that almost every top prospect in the system is over a year away from the major leagues. None of them are beating down the door for a call-up. And a lot can happen in a year.

I don't understand all the support for "building from within". The Sox's farm system is depleted. We had a real boom about 8 years ago producing Youkilis, Papelbon, Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury & Bard. But since then things have gotten relatively stale. There isn't much at the farm that I'm overly confident in to have an impact at the major league level. Xander Bogaerts had great success in 2012 but is still in the low levels of the minor leagues. Jackie Bradley inspires confidence as well but even he only has 60 games above A ball under his belt. How many young A ball stars go to die in the higher levels and never have a meaningful impact in the bigs? Matt Barnes hasn't pitched above A ball, Webster lacks command that he should have by now if he were to have a big impact on the club, De La Rosa is coming off TJ. While these players all show some promise it's not as if we've got any players coming off a slugfest at AA &/or AAA. Or any arms dominating in the advanced minor league levels. 2013 is a make or break year for almost all of the top Red Sox prospects.

I don't think the Dodgers are going to win with their team. Outside of Kershaw the rotation lacks meaningful depth. They can pay Zack Greinke like an ace all they want, it doesn't make him one. Greinke is a #2/#3 pitcher. Same with Beckett (when he is healthy, but as we know if he has the slightest nagging injury forget about positive results), an unproven Ryu could become a Dice-K, Billingsley was a consistent #3/#4 but his health is way up in the air, Harang can't be relied on. So you look at the rotation and they really need good results from Kershaw, Greinke, and Beckett to compete. If that doesn't happen they could be in for a long season. I don't expect Greinke will handle the pressure of that big contract well, and I believe Beckett to be in very real decline. If everybody plays to their potential they can win 130 games, but I can also see them being a disappointing 80 win team. More likely they'll win 90 and make the playoffs.

For as lame of a player that JD Drew was, he was a pretty good signing. The numbers are there. Drew played really good defense for the Sox and he had an OBP north of .370 for the first 3 years of the contract, 2010 was a mediocre season (22 HR, .793 OPS), and 2011 was a bad season. But the first 4 years were more than tolerable if you can get over the injury-pansiness of Drew. Looking at the state of the current Red Sox I'd love to have another JD Drew on board. I'm a firm believer that having a high OBP is one of the most important stats for a player, not only because they get on base a lot, but because those hitters tends to work the count, tire out opposing starting pitchers, get to the bullpen sooner, and tire them out early in a series. All that helps win ballgames. When you have half your line-up being consistently 3 pitch outs you don't get to the bullpen early, and you get slaughtered when you face an ace because he's going to be in there ALL game.

Part of the problem with building from within is the playing field has been leveled with the new rules regarding draft pick compensation. Teams like Boston could get 1st and 2nd round talent late who didn't get picked because of sign-ability concerns, that's gone now. The new frontier is to focus heavily on international scouting as that system remains the same.