True, guys over 30 can have breakout years (Pierzynski, Ortiz, etc.), but they are by far the exception to the rule. After the age of 30, the probability that a player's best year is still ahead of him is slim at best, especially if he's numbers are trending downwards. It can happen, but it's more risky from a productivity standpoint, and even if he does put up big numbers, it's unlikely you'll get a full 160 games out of him. The Red Sox need to be getting younger, not older.