evilhand

I think we're more likely to see Middlebrooks at short than 2nd with Aviles moving over to second base. Middlebrooks played short in high school, so at least he has *some* familiarity with the position. Turning him around in the infield by crossing him over second base seems like more of an issue to me than asking him to play short, where he probably won't have great range and will likely make his share of mistakes. But the net benefit of getting Punto out of the lineup seems worth it, IMO. That said, I disagree with the sentiment expressed above about Youk being "post-elite." He's hitting .313/.371/.531 since returning from the DL. He's back to being an elite bat. Or, more likely, he never stopped being an elite bat and was slumping early due to the nagging injury. This is why I'm hesitant to hand the keys over to Middlebrooks already. With Youk still being one of the best players in the league and Middlebrooks sporting a .400 BABIP... not to mention a nifty 29 to 4 k/bb ratio I fear we'd find ourselves with a sudden hole in the line up when Will hits his inevitable slump. In the interest of full disclosure, Youk's .313 overall BABIP is deflated by his April. He has a .381 BABIP since returning, but his patient approach is less likely to drop off a cliff for a few weeks.

Salty!

There's a risk they'd re-sign him... or worse, no one would claim him and he'd be stashed in Pawtucket for a future call up. I say just take him out back and shoot him.

Wow, they really need to dump Salty fast. (just teasing!)

Pumpsie, you and I are apparently not going to see eye to eye on this. That article is an exercise in semantics. Fielding independent stats do not purport to be completely free of the influence of fielding. They seek to minimize the impact defenders have on a pitchers line (good and bad) and get as close to the events that a pitcher has complete control of as is possible. To dismiss them because the word "independent" is in the descriptor while some semblance of defense can still be attributed to the data is missing the forest for the trees. Seems like we're best off agreeing to disagree here.

I agree that Dempster is probably the better target for the Sox as they need a short term plug more than a long term rotation piece. With Doubront looking like a serious long term piece of the rotation and the hope that Bard can put it together as a starter still lingering, the team has six starting pitchers lined up for the 2013 season already. They'll definitely need help this year, though, when Doubront and Bard are inevitably moved back to the pen. Maybe Trout a year ago, but certainly not Trout this year. Teams just don't trade prospects that are that advanced with ceilings that high. Theo wouldn't waste time asking for prospects that good, mostly because there are none. Trout is in the majors, as is Harper. Matt Moore, the best pitcher in the top 100 this year has already been promoted as well. After that there's a significant drop in quality to guys like Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, or Jurickson Profar. So yes, the price will be extremely high, but that doesn't mean a trade can't happen. I agree it's unlikely, but it really wouldn't be a shock to see someone overpay to get him. Chances are Theo is just finding out what he's worth, but he specifically mentioned Castro and the price for a reason.

Again, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester and Matsuzaka have never faced the Red Sox lineup in Fenway. Comparing their OPSa to Lackey's makes no sense since his is inflated due to having to have faced a great offense every time he pitched there before 2010. As for the injury, there were reports that he was hurt in spring training and pitched all year with a bad elbow, which got worse as he went forward. 2011 should be discarded entirely. And by serviceable, I mean 2010, which I've said several times now. a 3.85 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP would be fine. His actual ERA will be impacted by a lot of factors like defense, BABIP luck, HR/FB rate (which fluctuates in all pitchers), umpire performance, ect ect. This is one of the reasons that ERA is a really poor stat for evaluating a pitcher. It's useful when taken into context (which is what stats like FIP and xFIP try to provide), but asking for what I would consider an acceptable ERA for 2013 is like asking what I think an acceptable number of wins would be. Too many variables are at play for it to be predictive and it often doesn't do a very good job of telling you how good a pitcher actually was in any given season. As a response to your list of ERAs here are his FIP and xFIPs in the same years, minus 2011 where his elbow was made of pastrami. 2007: 3.54 3.87 2008: 4.53 3.83 2009: 3.73 3.87 2010: 3.85 4.15 FIP is more prone to fluctuation than xFIP, so the steady xFIPs are a good sign that he's been roughly the same pitcher in that stretch. The bump up to 4.15 in 2010 can be partially explained by the fact that the AL East is definitely tougher than the AL West. Part of it may also be that he was acclimating to a new team and stumbled a bit early as he found his footing. This is supported by the fact that his results were much better in the second half of the season in 2010.

Except he has to move to the pen at some point due to an IP limit. He threw 87 innings last year. There is simply no way he's going to throw anywhere near 200 this year. Same is true of Bard. Both guys are going to be move to the pen whether we like it or not. So Matsuzaka will get his chance back in the rotation and the Sox will have to pick up another starter, convert Aceves from the bullpen, or look to promote a prospect. Of those options, trading for someone seems the best route. I'd love to see Tazawa stretched out, but the team doesn't seem to agree. With the Cubs throwing up the fire sale sign, maybe Dempster or Garza can fill that role. Plus, Doubront didn't have much success as a starter in the majors before this year either. What ever clicked for him clicked between last season and this season. Do you have a specific reason to believe it's not likely to translate to the pen? As was covered in the post after yours, the talk about Lackey was entirely academic as he won't be available in 2012. What you're saying about Lackey is going to be true of most pitchers, though. Especially 4 or 5 starters (which is what we're talking about him being). Are you arguing that Lackey is more prone to getting knocked around by great offenses than the average stater? If so, what data are you using to support that claim? Great offenses get to pitchers. They often beat up on average or worse starters regularly, and will even get to great pitchers occasionally (as the Sox did to Verlander on Tuesday). Since no one is arguing Lackey is a great pitcher, he falls into the average or worse group. I'd be surprised if he gets hit significantly worse by great offenses than other guys like him. I mean, Clay Buchholz has an OPSa of 1.030 in Texas and 1.239 at the old Yankee Stadium. Is that evidence that he has no place with the Red Sox or is it just evidence that great hitting teams have hit him well? And Josh Beckett has an OPSa of .812 in the old Yankee Stadium and .803 in the new one, an .833 in Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) and 1.019 in the Rogers Center (TOR). Should the Red Sox cut bait on him for it? Tough hitting teams are tough hitting teams. Most pitchers struggle against them. So again, I'm not arguing that Lackey is going to be a front of the rotation starter for them when he gets healthy, but he's likely going to be a good pitcher. There will probably be a rotation crunch next year with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard and Lackey all wanting to start, but Matsuzaka is a free agent and I don't think he's coming back and we've seen over the last three years that six starters is not too many. Injuries happen and there are plenty of innings to go around. I expect Lackey will be serviceable next year and for the rest of his contract.

I don't agree that Dempster is a better pitcher than Garza. Garza has pitched successfully in the AL before, Dempster has not. Both would be good pick ups for the Sox, though, if the price is right. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Castro traded. I could see a team like Tampa thinking he's worth the price and moving two prospects who are near major league ready. They still have a ton of talent on the farm. The Rangers are set at short, so they're unlikely, but the Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Cardinals, Blue Jays and Athletics all have a number of top 100 prospects this year and might see Castro as worth the cost. It's probably not likely to happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did.

http://www.freep.com/usatoday/article/55293118?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Detroit%20Tigers|p Seems like Garza could be a really big pick up for this team and while Castro is an extremely exciting young shortstop, I have a hard time seeing a match there as the Sox just don't have the prospects to get it done... especially now that Middlebrooks has cemented his place as the future at third base.

A sweep would be nice...

The problem with using OPSa at Fenway is that he was always pitching against the Red Sox who are always one of the top offenses in baseball. He's not playing the Red Sox every time he starts there anymore. He'll face the Yankees and the Rangers on occasion, sure, but he also gets to face teams like Seattle. So I don't think OPSa for his career at Fenway is really a valid way to evaluate him. Pointing to OPSa at Yankee Stadium and the Trop is certainly more valid, but again, historically he's faced really good offenses at each. The Rays aren't as good an offensive team this year and the Yankees are the Yankees, so they'll always hit. But I'd argue that most pitchers have higher OPSa in places like Yankee Stadium. Look, I'm not arguing Lackey is likely to be an ace. There was enough decline in her peripherals before he was signed to suggest that the "ace" like performances in LAA were not likely to continue. What I'm arguing is that he can be what we saw in 2010 which is a valuable guy. Good, not great. And my overall point isn't just about the rotation. It's about the pitching staff as a whole. I think the probable decline in performance in the rotation going from Doubront/Bard to Lackey/Matsuzaka is more than offset by the likely improvement from moving Doubront and Bard to the pen. A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey and Matsuzaka with a pen of Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Hill, Miller and whomever is performing best out of Padilla, Morales, Albers, Atchinson or Tazawa (I like Tazawa a lot) is better than a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard with a pen of Bailey, Aceves, Melancon, Hill, Miller, Padilla, and whomever is performing best of the rest, IMO. If you want to focus on the rotation and the rotation only, and only on the season up to this point, then I agree that Lackey and Matsuzaka was not likely to be an improvement over what Doubront and Bard have given us, though that mostly has to do with Doubront performing better than most thought he would. I mean, I certainly didn't expect him to muscle his way into the discussion for a permanent spot in the rotation from 2013 on. But that's exactly what he did. Edit: ORS beat me to the point about pitching against the Sox in Fenway.

You're ignoring the bulk of my argument for Lackey. The numbers you posted include last year, when he pitched with a shredded elbow. 2010 Lackey put up a line of 4.40/1.42 and pitched much better in the second half than in the first. More importantly, his FIP was 3.85 and his xFIP was 4.15 while amassing 4.1 WAR. 2010 Lackey was a good, not great pitcher. A healthy Lackey in 2012 is much more likely to resemble that than the disaster we got in 2011. That's about an even swap for Bard. Then we have Doubront and Matsuzaka. Once again we have a guy who's 2011 was ended due to a shredded elbow. So we should remove that data when trying to figure out what to expect going forward. Using his 2010 as a starting point, we're looking at a similar WHIP to what Doubront has put up and a bit of a decline in ERA. And if we look beyond ERA, we see Matsuzaka with a 4.05 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP. Doubront is at 3.70 for FIP and 3.55 for xFIP. So yeah, we're going to see a bit of a drop in performance, but we also need to take into account that Doubront won't be able to stay in the rotation all year. He's going to need to be moved to the pen at some point in the somewhat near future due to an innings limit. Matsuzaka is capable of providing a full season of starting and I'd imagine their WAR totals would be similar if Doubront pitched part of the year in the rotation and part in the pen while Matsuzaka had started (while healthy) all year. Of course, that's only part of my argument. The other part is that being able to move Bard and Doubront into the pen would significantly improve the pens performance on the year. Yes, we'd still have Buchholz struggling and Lester would still be scuffling, but saying that the losses of Matsuzaka and Lackey have had no negative impact on the 2012 season seems a bit short sighted to me.

Sounds like you're using his career stats to back your argument to me. I'm not paying attention to the stats? Did you even read my post? I specifically addressed your concerns with his line drive rate and his HR/FB rate. His LD% isn't out of what with what he's done during his career, even in years where he wasn't otherwise producing, and his HR/FB rate is certainly inflated a little due to the hot streak of the last week or so, but expecting it to drop significantly is assuming he's not taking another step forward this year. So I'll ask differently. Why are you assuming he's not taking steps forward last year and this year? He's 27 years old. This is exactly when we should be seeing this kind of improvement from him.

Actually, as with any fielding bible stat, someone watches each pitch and judges it based on what they see, not what the ump calls. And with pitchfx data so easily available, it's not hard to weed out the bad calls. But that's besides the point. What you're saying here is screw the evidence we actually have, we should all just trust what your eyes are telling us. How is that a better approach than using the data that exists? What we do have says Salty is slightly better than average at receiving pitches.

Looks like a decimal point error somewhere. But his point is well received. My original point was simply that this team has seen as many injuries in 1/3 of a season as the 2010 team did all year. It's mind boggling how bad the injury luck has been this year. So for someone above to suggest that the Sox aren't any worse off than other teams in the AL seems a bit of an odd statement.

Based on what? There's actually data that conflicts with this thought. The fielding bible has him as slightly better than average at pitch framing and so far, they're the only ones publishing data on it. And calling a game isn't the sole responsibility of the catcher. The game plan is worked on before the game starts with the pitching coaches, the pitcher, the catcher, the manager and a ton of data. Many teams call pitches from the bench for some or all of the game. So any weakness in game calling can, and likely would be mitigated this way. Add to that the fact that he's one of the best power hitting catchers in the game, and that his OPS this year is 5th among all catchers with 100 or more PAs and his SLG is 3rd. Frankly, he's one of the best catchers in baseball, and since Shoppach is hitting over his head right now, moving Salty would seem a really bad idea.

It's not meant as a real time measure of time lost. It's just a consistent way to compare injuries across teams. The data is linked in my post. Take a look at the sibpin link to get a better idea of how it works. I was just comparing time lost from this team to time lost from the 2010 team. Does it matter if the measure has real world practical application so long as the data is consistent for both teams?

And 2.5 games out of first place.

What they need to do is send Middlebrooks back to Pawtucket until September once the outfield is healthy again. Call him up just before September 1st so he's playoff eligible and then have all three of Youk, Gonzo and WMB on the roster for the post season. If this team wants to win a title this year, their best chance is with Youkilis still on the roster. Besides, there's a real chance that with the new CBA, they'll get more value out of the two picks they'll get from him declining arb than a trade anyway. A team trading for him would not get a draft pick return on him declining arb and would have to activate his 14 million dollar option, then hope he stays healthy in 2013 to get those picks. Many teams would be picking him up as a true half season rental, which dings his value.

He's better, but I wouldn't say significantly. Significantly more athletic? Yes. But Youk isn't going to make the rookie mistakes that Middlebrooks has been making all season and Gonzalez/Youk is far better at the plate than Youk/Middlebrooks. I love what the kid is doing and am excited to see him take over permanently next year, but he has zero discipline at the plate and strikes out a ton. Even with his pop and Gonzalez's slump, he's the least effective hitter of that trio. So I'd rather have Youk and Gonzo in there than Middlebrooks and Youk for the rest of this game, all things consider and assuming Gonzalez isn't hurt from his tumble in right field.