evilhand

QFT

Yeah, I expect it's a bit flukish and will revert to more normal levels soon. Of course, if Ortiz keeps raking, they may not need Adrian to get back to normal to finish the year as one of the top offenses in baseball.

His K rate isn't really out of whack with his career norms. 19.6% vs 18% I wouldn't consider that outside of normal variation. It's just more noticeable because he's not hitting home runs anywhere near as often. 16.5% career vs 6.5% on the season.

seabeachfred, I'm guessing you didn't read the thread very carefully, or you'd have known people were talking about three way trades involving the Cubs, meaning Youk would not end up in Chicago.

I don't think the FO has an offense first approach so much as they've had their pitching moves fall short of their expectations. Locking up Lester and Beckett looked like a great move that would ensure they had two aces for the next half decade when it happened. Clay Buchholz liked like a front of the rotation starter in 2010. They drafted Raunado to be a front of the rotation type starter, same with Barnes. That Beckett and Lester have been less than consistent this year and Clay has forgotten how to pitch does not indicate that the team is trying to mash its way into the World Series. It shows us that pitching is tough to predict.

The board hiccuped and double posted for me. Please delete.

Barnes is interesting and his peripherals are very encouraging. He's advanced for his league, though. It'll be interesting to see how he handles a promotion to Portland later in the year.

If we're talking 1.5-2mm, Youk and a Prospect (I still think Cecchini is way too much), then we're closer than you might think to agreeing. I think someone like Alex Wilson or Kolbrin Vitek makes more sense (You mentioned Vitek up thread). Cecchini came into the year either top 100 or close to top 100 depending on the source with Sickels thinking he could vault into the the top 20 if he keeps raking. Well, he's raking. .307/.392/.450. He's in infielder with great patience, good contact skills and some pop. He could be moved to 2nd as the eventual replacement for Pedroia. He is enormously valuable when you take position into account. I'd rather they deal Brentz than Cecchini, despite Brentz being much higher in the rankings right now. (not that I'm suggesting Brentz as part of a Youk trade... just making a point about Cecchini)

I didn't say that. I said he'll continue to make mistakes this year. I also think people are underestimating Youk's defense. He's not Mike Lowell out there. Edit: Youk was at -3.7 UZR/150 last year, -2.7 total. That puts him at slightly below average. Middlebrooks doesn't have enough time in the field for his UZR to mean anything, but so far has been worse than Youk on the season. He's at -19.7 UZR/150 so far (-2.6 total). What that means is that the mistakes he's made have skewed him well into the negative because the small sample size hasn't had a chance to normalize the data. But it does illustrate that for all the range he has on Youk, it hasn't yet translated to an overall advantage. I think he could end up a better defender on the year, but he's going to have to cut back on the mistakes sharply to pull that off. Again, people underestimate Youk because he's been banged up lately which is frustrating. But he's still one of the best players in the majors when healthy.

No, that's not what you said at all. Here's what I responded to.

It comes down to the mistakes Middlebrooks makes on a regular basis. It seems like every game he does at least one thing that leaves you scratching your head. He's a rookie, that's to be expected. Youk doesn't have the range Middlebrooks has, but he's likely to be a more accurate thrower, more steady with the glove and better at decision making for the rest of the season. Long term, Middlebrooks is a better option in the field, but he's a rookie and thus will continue to make rookie mistakes.

And I think you're severely undervaluing Youk. He's an MVP caliber player when healthy. The only reason he's expendable is that he's been hurt. His talent level is still top of the league. If he was healthy he either wouldn't be available or he'd cost a kings ransom. Giving him up while paying his salary and adding in the number 10 prospect on the farm (Middlebrooks will lose his prospect status shortly) who at least one publication thinks is top 100 in baseball, and who Sickels thinks can be top 20 next year is pure lunacy. The Sox are giving up far more value than they can recoup in that scenario.

Pumpsie, you're ignoring the fact that Youk is hitting like he's hit for most of his career again. He was injured in the second half last year and in April this year. You're cherry picking the worst possible sample to discount the fact that Youk is looking like the Youk that was an MVP contender for several years in a row once again. He has a long history of hitting this well, not just nine games. There is every reason to think that Middlebrooks is going to come back down to Earth at the very least, and likely slump at some point as well. Yes, he's the future at third base, but if this team wants to try and win a title before starting to transition to the next generation, keeping Youk makes a lot of sense. Sure, they miss out on bringing in a couple of advanced prospects to aid in the youth movement, but they'll pick up two draft picks this winter when he walks after his option is declined and he turns down arbitration. So the loss there is mitigated significantly. I think it's in their best interest to hedge their bets with him and hold onto the last few months of production they can get while picking up to draft picks rather than cashing him in for prospects now. They may not think this is a title contender, or they may think the offense is so good when healthy that they can win without Youk, and those are both valid viewpoints. But I think people have blinders on with regard to Middlebrooks to some degree. He's not going to give this team the bat that Youk provides, even if he keeps up the power. He just doesn't have the patience or the plate discipline. Also just my opinion, but it feels like people are either missing or ignoring Middlebrooks' warts while being too focused on the last 8 months or so with Youk. And keep in mind that holding onto Youk and stashing Middlebrooks when Pedroia comes back will allow the Sox to rest Youk down the stretch to get him to the playoffs healthy and fresh.

I think a three team trade with the Cubs is a possibility as well. Theo loves three way trades and Youk heading to a third team, prospects heading to the Cubs and Dempster plus a prospect coming back to the Sox could make sense.

There are risks, too, though. I just pointed out in the Middlebrooks thread that he has a .400 BABIP and a 29 to 4 k/bb ratio. He's going to come back down to Earth, and he's likely to slump at least once before the season is over. He's not an elite bat yet, while Youk most certainly is. If the team wants to maximize its chances at making a title run this year, I think holding onto Youk is the best way to go. When Pedroia gets back, that likely means moving Middlebrooks back to Pawtucket to keep him swinging the bat regularly, then calling him up just before September starts so that they can go into the playoffs with a roster of Youk, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty/Shoppach, Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney and Papi at DH with Middlebrooks on the bench as a pinch hitter, defensive replacement, injury insurance, ect ect. I love Middlebrooks, and I'm excited to watch him continue developing, but he's not going to keep up a .400 BABIP and when that drops, so will his overall line. He might be an elite bat in the future, but he's not there yet. Youkilis is.