jung

I just that as far as the Sox and Napoli are concerned they are at an impasse. The Sox have apparently made two offers neither that Napoli's people like. The Sox position has appeared to solidify behind those two offers. I don't think the Sox will budge so Napoli will have to if anything is going to happen. That is if I am reading this right.

Ross is a perennial backup catcher. In all of his years he has only been given the nod as the 1 one time, by the Reds in I think the 2007 season. He promptly pulled an Iggy, 0 for forever and that was the end of his stint as anybody's number 1 catcher. He simply cannot hit good enough to be able to crack a lineup as a 1. If they had any thoughts of Ross as a 1 then they should absolutely and without doubt off Salty and bring up Lavs and make him the 1 which they very likely will not do either. I don't mean to imply that Ross is a perennial Iggy but he just can't hit his way out of a paper bag for the most part and is getting up there in years. We already know how the Sox handle all glove no hit players. Does not matter whether it is right or wrong, it is the Red Sox. He is however the consummate #2 catcher. Works well with the pitchers...covers all the detail work that a defensive 2 is supposed to cover, good behind the plate. Splits are not terrible but not great either and that is in very limited action. His splits are hideous in any year where he gets enough at bats to matter. Not a guy that this Sox team could afford to have in the lineup every day. This team will either need Lavs or Salty in its lineup. Even K machine Salty has some pop. Plus in all likelihood Ross would not hold up if you had him in there for 100+ games. He has not done it since 2006 or 2007 and that was the only year he did. Every other year since, 60 has been his high water mark. But this is part of the problem you have when you are only sort of into a bridge year. They spent all this money...got very little team for it...and in all likelihood when a decision like Salty vs Lavs comes up, where so many teams would just bite the bullet and bring up Lavs, carbuncles and all, IMO it is so foreign to the Sox that they would prefer a walk across hot coals.

To be honest, parts of this catching thread reminds of the way a number of the threads are going this offseason which is similar to the way many went last offseason. One of the issues that some appear unwilling to deal with is the very real possibility that Salty is our catcher. As we get closer and closer to pitchers and catchers reporting we generally don't like seeing Salty trotted out there again and with very good reason. I don't have to depend on CERA. I have eyes. I can see what Salty is doing out there. But as much as we might not like seeing him trotted out there, you can't just say "they will start Ross". As I posted above, it has been ions since Ross has caught even as many as 60 games in a season. Napoli even if signed is a bat they cannot afford to be without. One thing I have not seen any comments on but that I think is really quite true is that this team is thin thin thin. Injuries anywhere will likely turn it from a 3rd place team to a last place team. Lose Ortiz.....see ya'. Catch Napoli to many games, wear down that hip and lose him....how are you going to replace that bat? So anybody that wants to rate the Sox higher than 3rd has got to deal with the fact that you take Ortiz and his achilles out of this lineup and you are toast! Probably taking Napoli out and you are pretty darned close to toast. So since I think chances are slim to none that the Sox will start the season with Lavs up here....we get Salty again and neither Ross nor Napoli for that matter will change that IMO.

The Jays probably took down the biggest pitching haul in the AL this off season with the Marlins deal plus Dickey. But that whole deal hinged on Johnson really. Once the Jays made that deal they felt confident in going after Dickey just like they felt they could add Cabrera from where they were. Johnson could in fact skyrocket to the top of the Jays staff or he could break down again and go nowhere. But I just don't think the Sox are in the same position that the Jays were in. The Mets wanted the frigging farm system for Dickey and the Sox were in no position to handle the package of Reyes/Johnson/Buerlie. The Jays had a very strong position from which to roll the dice on Johnson and Buerlie and they apparently wanted Reyes. So whereas other teams probably looked at Reyes as an albatross in that deal, apparently the Jays coveted him. I really liked the idea of taking a shot at Johnson. Our rotation as currently constituted is all big question marks but I don't think the upside for putting a plus sign in some of those boxes is as high as others think. Heck if the whole dame thing is going to be question marks add another that has monster upside. I really thought to be honest that was the only legit shot the Sox had at making a one year turn on the rotation....as he was the only guy to my way of thinking that was available that you could have brought in here that could potentially turn into a monster. But just about the only real shot the Sox had at him was to pull him out of that deal separately and that just was not going to happen. As I recall they took a shot at Johnson. I don't know specifically what they tried to do but it got shot down pretty quickly as I recall. So I surmise that the Sox showed no interest in the deal that the Marlins made with the Jays. The truth is we could have done the Marlins deal and even Dickey if we really wanted to go down that road. However the Sox would have been right back in the same boat they have been in...depleted farm system...no hope of having a balanced team of cost controlled players and FA's and no room to move at all.....for what....an all in shot at going all the way in 2013????....with what.....the likes of Gomes and the rest of this crowd????? As for where I am thinking the Sox will finish as constituted, I think they are 3rd at best not 3rd at worst. To call this division wide open when everybody in it has more solid starting pitching than we do, either with better top line talent or better upside young guns just is wishful thinking IMO. I think it is wide open for just about all the other contenders in the division but not the Sox. I don't think we finish last but I think virtually every other team in the division will at some point or another during the season actually contend. I think we will likely look like 3rd headed to 4th the whole damn time. While guys like 700 are more direct in their comments about the team's chances, he was one of the several guys that called it dead on before 2012 started mainly because it was so obvious that our pitching was in trouble. We got boatloads of criticism from the anything can happen crowd and the "this team has post season written all over it" crowd. So while 700 and I disagree a good deal it is hard for me to sit by and see his position called wholly pessimistic when he got criticized in exactly the same way last year and had it called dead nuts on!

Part of the problem with Napoli's hip is that he likely cannot take as much of the load as initially thought and Ross is not a spring chicken. He is a fine defensive catcher. However I suspect that Ross would have trouble fully sharing the catching duties. I can see Ross catching when the opponent is starting a LH starter, when the Sox are playing a double header and when there is a day game following a night game. But that puts Salty out there for a good many catching assignments. Ross has not caught over 60 games since 2007. Between 50 and 60 is probably just about what I described above would get him. Maybe Napoli gets 10 or 20, MAYBE and Salty gets the rest if he is here.

Well, Farrell will not be left with a choice in the matter. He can't start Ross that often. He is not a front line catcher. Napoli if signed is his 1st baseman with a problem that can only be exacerbated by catching and Lavs will be in Pawtucket. He will be stuck starting Salty. As for what Salty does behind the plate.....he gives the worst targets I have ever seen...the absolute worst. You are right in that there are guys that frame as badly as he does, maybe not for the same reasons but as badly. However there are also guys that frame much better. Salty does appear to get shaken off quite a bit...that does get frustrating for a pitcher after awhile. That said, without knowing the details of how a pitcher and catcher and pitching coach have planned to attack particular hitters, it is hard to definitively make a judgement there. However I can see how he sets targets and I can see how he frames and I have seen him shaken off a fair amount and have even seen pitchers start to stiffen their spins at some point....and even call him out to the mound. His framing issues may be part and parcel of how he receives. He does tend to stab at the ball. It is kinda' difficult to frame and stab at the same time. Not only does he tend to stab....even when he avoids doing that, he does not hold the glove to a spot. You will see the better receivers actually able to receive the ball without being so concerned about whether they can fully get the pocket of the glove to the ball...hence they can hold the glove at a spot and receive the ball in the glove but will allow the glove to caress the ball to the pocket as opposed to insisting on catching it with the pocket. That takes a degree of suppleness to the glove hand that Salty simply does not seem to possess and I don't think he will develop it at this point. Of course if he set his targets where the pitcher would actually like to throw the ball he might have his glove in a better position to begin with. I won't go into his defensive liabilities including how he handles poorly thrown baseballs as that is a whole post by itself but if the topic is Salty as a receiver in his roll as a battery mate to a pitcher, this is what I see.

I cannot say that I thought the Sox could solve the SP problem in one off season. They have truly botched a number of things in my view but I am not convinced that this is one of them. However this is also why I thought they should take a different path with the whole team this year. Whatever....they are going to do what they are going to do. Maybe the team reveals itself early enough for the Sox to give the younger guys more playing time and more ML experience and those of us more interested in that may get what we want after all. Not saying that 700 or anybody else is making the same case I have been making about the team generally. Not trying to put words in anyones mouth.

I wonder if there is anyway for us on the outside looking in to understand how the advance ticket sales are going so far.

I think with Lavs at some point in time the Sox are going to have to do something foreign to them and something they shrink from regularly....they are going to have to bite the bullet and give Lavs the job. This is twice now that they have brought Lavs up as the third wheel catcher on the roster. One time it has failed miserably (2012) and if you think about it, Lavs showed more defense than offense in 2011. I just don't see the Sox doing it this year although it would be as good a year as they are going to see to just do it. Is he 100% ready....no.....Is he the overcooked 110% ready that finally, usually motivates the Sox to give the guy the job (different from just bringing him up).....no.....Is there much chance of Lavs hurting the 2013 effort relative to Salty.... I would suggest.....no.....

Early in the 2012 season the standouts relative to expectations were Felix and Bard. Nobody else was distinguishing himself at that point relative to expectation. Buch came on later but by then the handwriting was already on the wall. We were happy for Buch in an absolute sense at that point but nobody thought it meant anything with regard to the season then. That horse had already left the barn. Ultimately, taken on the whole, the entire rotation turned out to be a house of cards all the way through the so called depth guys. But early in the season the talk was how that our 4 and 5 were the only guys distinguishing themselves and that was accurate at that point in time.

I seriously doubt Ross will get the starting roll. The Sox far prefer the devil they know to the devil they don't. I expect to see Salty start the season behind the plate, Ross as his backup, Napoli if signed catching so few games that it turns out to be something done in a pinch or under an outrageously unique set of circumstances and Lavs down at Pawtucket again until later in the season if at all in 2013. Lavs possibly comes up sooner based on the potential for injury or if Salty gets offed to some team still in the hunt and desperate for catching......desperate as in willing to take somebody that can at least get into a crouch.

What now appears to be the inevitable "couldn't be ruled out" comment again. I suspect that if somebody asked a Sox baseball ops rep if there was a chance that Ferrell would be fired and another manager hired before the 2013 season even started the response back would be " we consider it highly unlikely but the possibility couldn't be ruled out."

In my view Tek was not a great defensive catcher but he was a good defensive catcher tailing off at the end of his career and very very good at framing, calling a game, giving a target etc.

I consider defense at the catching position and the handling of pitchers (giving a target, preparing for and calling a game etc) as two separate categories. If there is a front line catcher anywhere else in the major leagues that is worse at the combined skill sets, I don't know who he is.

Yup....not sure what they are going to do about it but......yup By the way, if there are two things that to me are dead give aways that you are in trouble they are: to much discussion of your 4th and 5th starters as that speaks volumes about 1,2 and 3 in the rotation. This is where we sort of were last year. and To much discussion of the strength of your bullpen which is an extension of the first discussion and means about the same thing. We are doing quite a bit of that this year although we did a good deal of it last year as well...when we were left discussing the strength of our middle relievers as a group of all things. That is how desperate we got as we groped for something to hang some hope on. Not saying you are guilty on either score Pal. Not meaning to imply that at all.

Me too Bell and those are exactly the sort of choices I probably would have made going the other way. Not all of them but some of them. Like I said early I reluctantly had to admit that Victorino is necessary to protect on Ells. However I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell of the Sox being so bold (bold for them) as just bitting the bullet, trading Salty and bringing Lavs up, regardless of his less than inspirational performance last year. So many teams would play this the other way. I think the lesson to be learned on Riddick is that if you don't finally bite the bullet and tell a young guy that the position is his to lose so that he is not feeling like some God forsaken appendage you are likely very lucky if you really find out what the kid has got. I don't buy that the dif between Boston and Oakland on Riddick was the dif in pressure generated by the two cities and their support of their respective baseball teams. For my money Riddick improved out there because he was given the job and did not have to look over his shoulder every five seconds to see if he still had it....which is typical of how Boston treats its young players. If there was ever a year to just give some of them the job and let them play it out, this is it. For one thing I was hoping the Sox would do just so they would get used to doing it.

By last few spots do you mean last openings?....I am not sure if you are referring to the quality of bullpen arm or last few spots as in who is pitching in the late innings.

And even if we got that from Lester and Buch as unlikely as that is, there is not enough team there to support them. I have said it several times already and while it is just my opinion, I guess I should try to say it a different way or something. They don't have enough hitting to make up for their lack of pitching under any circumstance you can reasonably expect and/or they don't have enough pitching to hold down the better teams enough such that they can hang with them as far as offense is concerned. Unfortunately, we have gone backwards while many of the league's teams have improved either marginally or enough so that we will have more decent teams this year and fewer dogs. It was already headed that way last year when we did not make hay against really any level of the AL. Even the Rays may not have stepped as far back as we have. If I had to be totally honest, I cannot even say we will finish above the O's. We were posting some expectations for AL East standings by year end a few weeks ago and I stuck the Sox at fighting for 3rd and possibly finding 4th because I just did not have the heart to stick them were they may well end up, battling for 4th and finding 5th. IMO, if you want to go back and focus on Lester and Buch the range of finish for the Sox is anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on what you get out of those two with the Sox missing the post season either way.

No but we have seen the very best that Lester and Buch have to offer. So we know exactly what that looks like while being not at all certain that we will get that. Expecting Lackey to just come back and pitch well after TJ is just to much of a gamble when you consider that Lester, Buch, Dempster and Felix already have big question marks painted on their backs. The only thing I am holding out for in Lackey's case is that the AL East hitters continue the same trending toward lack of discipline that became so prominent by the end of last season. If Lackey gets a bunch of help from the hitters he could end up being a surprise. If anything he is likely to be the kind of pitcher that could take advantage.

Because I did not think there was enough depth to this year's FA pool to justify spending to the limit and thought there had to be some player or combination of young players that deserved more of a shot to play in this year where they are going nowhere. It is that simple. While they are not blocking anybody necessarily they are also not taking the best advantage of this season to get some of these guys some ML experience. I simply don't buy that this team has more than a ghost of a chance to make the post season and if that is all you have paid 170 odd million $ for, I would rather take full advantage of every opportunity I had to get more out of my young crop of players. That would have meant fewer of these mid-pack FA that at the end of day won't generate enough wins to do anything. Actually I don't think they will start the season with four catchers. Napoli is in all likelihood not going to catch even if they sign him and I suspect even Lavs ends up back down in Pawtucket. Welcome to another year of watching Salty forget that home plate is his base to cover.

I wouldn't be. I thought the best move they could make as an organization was to not spend to the limit in one off season and said so right from the start.

There was not enough depth in this year's FA pool to even make several 4-5-6 year deals possible. So I am not ready to anoint what they have done as genius at this point. I am not convinced that spending all the way up to the LT cap limit to build this kind of a team makes much sense. I suppose they could make the case to the fans that they are willing to spend money. I have to believe that was part of upper management's logic in setting BC off in this particular direction. They have done so much more for show and so little for go in the last couple of years that it sounds just like them to give themselves a ready made argument for why we should spend our dollars to watch this team play. We spend our dollars so you fans should reciprocate and spend yours. But if the team is not going to win enough games and not be particularly interesting to watch...who cares? I just don't think this is likely to work out from either perspective....business or performance. Way back when Napoli was first signed, people were suggesting that we were building a team that nobody is going to care particularly about and I agree. Victorino will likely be worth watching and I like Ross as a catcher. I frankly don't see myself much interested in Gomes or Drew or Napoli especially as a full time 1st baseman. From what I can see Drew was on the downside, before he got injured. What are we hoping for, a Steven Drew of about 5-6 years ago? Even if we got that Drew, a full year of Napoli at 1st and the outfield as planned, where does that leave them with their pitching? Looking at the O's effort last year does not help. This is not the same thing. IMO, they stand a very good chance of not satisfying either their business or their performance objectives with this team.

Nobody is going to give much for Ells or Vic or any combination of Els or Vic and Salty. So I am not at all convinced that the SP situation gets resolved in trade at this point. It probably just does not get done this off season. Ells does not have enough contract left and has his one big year to go on....big deal. The bigger issue for me is one that 700 put in his post. They have spent a ton of money to turn themselves into the Boston Mid-packs.

A cold shiver just went right up Benny Boy's spine.

Then again you are talking about THIS opening day roster. Still looks like the Boston Mid-packs to me.