jung

All of which got Drew a slot 7th or 8th in a lineup that you would not consider murderer's row. If he had power that mattered he would be batting higher in the order. Again his offense looks better than the average SS but the average SS can't hit his weight these days. It just does not matter, for all but the top two or three offensive SS's in baseball. Nor do I think anybody will be convinced that his power numbers will improve from where they are....but 20 points of BA....that is doable and would move his salary projections a long long way IMO. BA improvement is what he gives you to work with if you are trying to convince somebody to pay 12-14 per on a three year deal. Since there is no baseball, the only game anybody can play is the "what will you pay me game". For months we often mused as did the rest of baseball that the Sox even with Napoli could not adequately protect Ortiz. This team was not some power monster. This team generated offense out of implementing a team wide process and being staunch enough as a group, stubborn enough to stick with it and not fall apart into trying to satisfy their separate, individual goals. They instead stuck with the idea that their separate, individual goals were best satisfied by sticking with the team wide process. The only regular that swam against that tide was Ells early in the season when he tried to pump his HR numbers. Finally when there were no HR's worth talking about to show for his effort and his BA had fallen below 250, he finally gave that up, jumped on the bandwagon and started to approach his AB's like a lead off hitter. He was never as patient as we would have liked but save a few more walks he started producing in 2013 like you would expect a lead off hitter to produce, made up all the ground he had lost trying to hit dingers and turned in a very good year IMO. It will be really interesting to watch what happens with the guys that leave Boston. I expect Salty to suffer away from this team at this stage of his career both in the field and at the plate. Drew will be fine if some team signs him and keeps him stuffed down there about 7th or 8th in the lineup as I don't expect his defense to suddenly leave him in one year. If somebody signs him for a bunch of money and moves him up the order....watch out! Naps might end up facing expectations that are tough for him to meet if he leaves but I expect him back here. Ells will go from the top of this order to the top of some other team's order. He should be fine wherever he goes.

It will be interesting to see what finally happens with Drew. BA is all he really gives you at the plate. 20 more points of BA and he gets the big contract. However that is another hit a week during the season and Drew piled up so many 0-30's that it became his mantra which is why I still think Boras is going to try go get somebody to sign him on the come. Might work out. The only teams that are going to have interest are teams with a real shot at the post season...somebody looking to have the same stout post season defense that the Sox showed and need a SS to do it...ala the Cards. There is nothing additive to Drew as an asset. There is no excitement there like there is with Ells for example. So he is not a face of the franchise type nor is he even a flashy SS. He is solid as a rock though. I don't know that the field of interest at any number like 12-14 per is greater than the Cards and it may not even be the Cards. IMO, they just need a SS that does not have two left feet. LA might have interest for no other reason than once again another LA sizzle move. "See, we got you the WS SS".....whatever....LA is whacked and has spent themselves into the dreaded "predicted to win the WS in 2014" spot. Drew would resolve a number of the "up the middle" issues that the Sox have ala' might be really young up the middle. But, I don't see them forking over 12-14 per to see Steven pile up more 0-30's. My contention with Drew is that folks toss around 3/30 like that is a win for Drew over taking the QO and at least in my opinion it is not at all a win. At 3/30 I take the QO and try to add that 20 points of BA in 2014 and then cash in on it next year.

I don't think they need a big move either....certainly do not need McCann. Don'e even think Beltran makes sense even if restricted to LF.

I don't think the issue is JBJ for the Sox. I think the Sox would be fine with starting the season with JBJ in CF. I think it is more the likelihood of being very young up the middle if JBJ is in CF and XB is the everyday SS. I think the Sox would love to have Drew back but not for some number that presupposes that he will be better offensively than he was. That is the play Boras is going to make. He is going to try to get somebody to pay Drew for offensive numbers that he has not proven he can produce since returning from injury. Top 5 of 2013 SS's is meaningless when the SS's as a group were so anemic at the plate. This may finally be why the Sox have such little interest in seeing Salty come back. They will need an experienced, competent Catcher if they have as much youth spread around up the middle as they may well have. While Salty has made progress, he still catches like a journeyman catcher even with a pitching staff that he knows! God help him if he ends up with a new team and a whole new staff to handle.

I don't think we will some number of years from now be talking about JBJ's power. Frankly I would be surprised if he hits more HR's than Ells hits. However I still think that if he continues to develop as he has and gets his shot, he will produce at more than satisfactory levels, probably not in 2014 but soon after that. More interested to see if the Sox are going to respond in some way to the offensive hole that will be left if both Ells and Salty are out of the everyday lineup. Maybe the Sox are interested in Beltran after all and intend tossing him into LF. I am assuming the Sox are going to find a way to get Naps back here. If Ells, Salty and Naps are out of the everyday lineup, now an offensive hole becomes an offensive Grand Canyon. As for Drew, maybe the Sox figure they can wait Boras out because the Sox have guys for the left side of the infield and in a Sox perfect world, XB plays short and WMB hits for enough power to play 3rd anyway. The Sox will need an experienced Catcher in the everyday lineup I think. Without both Drew and Ells, they are going to be very young up the middle if XB is playing SS and JBJ is playing CF. I just think they have Salty in a tough spot in that he is not really ready to leave Boston and take on a whole new pitching staff. Frankly as much progress as Salty has made in the last couple years, he still gives horrid targets, does not frame the ball well, calls a pretty close to terrible game even with pitchers that he knows, can easily be pushed to throwing errors because he cannot throw to 3rd or 1st at all and is a streaky hitter. I think that the Sox may well have just seen enough and would keep him entirely on their terms but only on their terms.

Why should Drew take the $14.1M for 1 year when you could have 3/30? I think the answer to that is obvious. Unless he is injured in 2014, in which case, he still gets all of the $14.1 he risks nothing taking that $14.1 and trying to increase his value via producing better offensive numbers in 2014. He could hardly do worse offensively and his defense is not likely to be going anywhere over the course of one year. So he still has that as a baseline for his value. Adding some offense to that changes that 3/30 to something more like 3/40 or even 3/42 given an added year of typical salary inflation. Lets use the lower number. If you just take the first two years of a contract he signed next year for 3/40 and add that to the $14.1 he could have this year he costs himself about $10M over a period of 3 years by taking 3/30 now. On the other side of the equation, barring injury he costs himself nothing by waiting one year and taking the $14.1M. Heck even if he is injured he may cost himself nothing by taking the $14.1 now. He only has to make another $15.9M in the following two years to get the same $30M he would have by signing a 3/30 deal now. The only way it works out for Drew to pass on the $14.1 is if Boras can get him signed someplace for something between 3/36 and 3/40 now which is what I meant by getting somebody to sign him on the come. 3/30 just is not worth taking IMO given what he could have if he could just add some offense to his defense. Equally disconcerting....he actually has the potential to add enough pop to turn that trick. He does not have to turn himself into the best of four ML SS's with decent offensive numbers. He just has to move himself off of being the first of the next ten SS's that simply have no offensive impact worth talking about. I would be completely surprised if Boras is whispering 3/30 in Drew's ear. Boras should be able to get him 3/30 with one lip tied behind his back.

I think of the two FA's the Sox offered QO's to that won't demand the huge money that Ells will requires, Naps and Drew, Naps IMO gives you much more value for your dollars spent. All year long in an effort to swallow his regular 0-30's we kept telling ourselves that Drew was a top 5 offensive SS, a top 5 offensive SS. Big deal. All we were really telling ourselves is that the 2013 SS's across baseball were just plain sucky at the plate, as anemic a group of SS's as we have seen. Unless XB plays SS or unless the Sox go heavy after a trade for one of the very few offensive SS's in baseball they are just not going to get much offensive out of that position. That could be fine. However you know that Boras is going to be hammering away at that top 5 2013 SS's in baseball tag line. To be honest I don't think GM's are going to drink Boras Kool-aid on Drew. Steven is not the guy a team can make the face of their franchise nor is he somebody that can fit either at the top or middle of the BA. We can see why Ells won't take the QO and even see our way to why Naps would not take it. But Drew IMO is a pure case of the agent's confidence and having convinced the player that he is going to pull off some kind of monster deal for him. I really think Drew is making a big mistake that is going to cost him millions with an "S" of $'s. He could have the $14.1M this year, a number that he has no chance at duplicating in a contract from some other team based on his 2013. Sure the Cards need a SS but they just need one that does not trip over his own shoelaces on the way to a ground ball. There are maybe three SS's in baseball that move the needle offensively.That is it and Drew is not one of them. Once you are settled on putting the rest of the SS's in a bag, shaking it and taking any one of them as far as what one of them will add to your offense, now you are down to paying for a solid glove at SS. Solid gloves at SS don't get big contract deals. IMO, Drew would be far smarter to take the $14.1M and try to use 2014 to hit his way into making that short list of SS's that move the needle offensively four deep instead of three deep. If he could do that, add it to his defensive skills and now you are talking big big money contract. That is why I think he is going to end up costing himself millions not taking the QO.You have a few million he is going to cost himself this year and you have the millions he could have had if he could just use 2014 to elevate his offensive skill set just enough to make a big impact on expectations for him at the plate to go along with expectations for him in the field. Boras must have Steven convinced that he can get a team to pay him on the come and I just do not see that level of stupidity out there such that Boras can take that kind of advantage. Sure there is money to spend in baseball. That does not mean teams just want to throw it away and a big contract for Drew would be just throwing the money away.

Don't think you will ever see another pitcher sign a Tim Wakefield kinda' contract. That could be a road a Nava might go down. "Give me a million bucks every year and I will do the cookin', wash the laundry, play occasional LF and get you a knock now and again."

I don't think Peavy should go either. The Sox do seem to have something of a log jam of rotation guys from #3 down. Lets face it, if Buch cannot find a way to stay on the field more than he does, he is really maybe not more than the best of our growing cadre of 3's.

As for Naps, I don't think playing 1st puts as much stress on that hip condition, surely not as much as he would have catching. So while I don't think a really long term deal is in the works, two years with a team option or maybe even three years would seem doable. As for Nava, he should only see RF under extreme duress. He cannot play out there and is really only a RF when you don't have anybody else to play the position. So he is a platoon LF, back up 1st baseman...maybe but maybe not with Carp around. As I said earlier, I don't see in the Sox some major desire to move him. But he is very likely at the peak value of his entire career right now and I do see that as a possible motivation for the Sox to move him, depending on something coming back that fills a spot for them.

I am not sure if the Sox are just trying to test how far off his lofty horse Beltran is willing to go but that guy scares me. I really would not want to see him in a Sox uni unless on a very short deal. Even then, I would have to think he would represent some sort of stop gap measure for the Sox and nothing more.

To be honest the only thing I can think of that would have Nava dealt away that is consistent with what we have seen lately from BC would be moving on a player at the peak of his value. I don't think Nava will ever be more highly valued than he is right now. Not saying they should move him but in that sense, moving him would be consistent with what we have seen recently from BC ala' Iggy.

Talking publicly about wanting to sign a player that is under contract to another team would be tampering. GM's can't come out and say "we are pursuing so and so" or even say we want or desire so and so when so and so is under contract to another team. AGons was traded from the Marlins to the Rangers and from the Rangers to the Padres. During his ML career, AGons has never made it to Free Agency. When he was traded from Texas to San Diego he signed a four year deal with the Padres and then was traded to the Sox. So there was never a period in his ML career where the Sox could have come out and publicly voiced a desire to sign the player. They cannot even come out and say we will be pursuing said player when he becomes available if the player is under contract. I agree that Theo wanted AGones. But the only people outside of the the Sox organization Theo could have discussed his desire to have Agones with would have been representatives of the San Diego Padres, as the Padres were the team that had his contract. Theo certainly would not have been in a position to have statements about wanted AGons attributed to him. While a team can talk publicly about wanting a player that is a FA that is pretty rare. Usually it is the player's agent through a friendly media guy that talks some about teams wanting his player because in some cases the agent wants the world to know how much his guy is in demand. The team generally does not want to talk about wanting a particular FA because if they do not land the guy, they end up with egg on their faces, having to answer a bunch of questions about why they could not get it done. But I do not see where there would have been an opportunity for Theo to have talked publicly about wanting Agons because AGons was never without a contract. Sometimes at the eleventh hour of trades in progress, both teams by mutual agreement might announce that they are right on the cusp of a deal....again something that is very rare.

Who does ever come out and say it before hand. How does not having said it beforehand mean anything?

Jeez I have to say that from where I sat, Theo had been lusting after AGons for a long long time. So much so that when the deal was struck the tone of many of the pieces written was like "Theo finally gets his man". Here is one of the ESPN articles that talked about the Sox trying to get Agons out of SD for two years before the deal was done. Hoping for happily ever after The Red Sox-Gonzalez marriage is clearly based on respect, trust Updated: December 6, 2010, 6:17 PM ET By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com 13 1 0 EMAIL PRINT BOSTON -- The old joke is that you can always spot a man on his honeymoon because of the way the newlywed plays with his wedding band, still trying to get used to the new piece of jewelry on his ring finger. So there was Adrian Gonzalez, sitting at the podium inside Fenway Park's media room on Monday as he was introduced to the local media after officially being acquired from the San Diego Padres in exchange for a package of minor leaguers, fidgeting at times with his ring as he answered questions about a new partnership. That ring has been on his finger for seven years, ever since 2003, when he married his wife, Betsy, who sat clad in Red Sox red a few feet away. But it almost seemed appropriate that Gonzalez was playing with the ring on the day he married into the Red Sox family after a long (and often public) courtship. [+] Enlarge AP Photo/Josh Reynolds "He grew up wanting to be a Red Sox and had his eye on being a part of what we've had going on here for a long time," GM Theo Epstein said of Adrian Gonzalez at the press conference Monday. On one side of Gonzalez, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein chronicled the numerous attempts over the last two years to pry Gonzalez from his hometown Padres. To the other side, Red Sox (and former Marlins) owner John Henry detailed how the front office staff in Florida gushed about Gonzalez's potential while still in high school a decade ago. Meanwhile, Gonzalez talked about growing up a Red Sox fan, rooting for Boston as his American League team of choice, in part due to San Diego native Ted Williams, who Gonzalez's father would spend hours relaying stories about. All of which left Epstein calling the acquisition of Gonzalez a match made in heaven. "This is something he wanted; he grew up wanting to be a Red Sox and had his eye on being a part of what we've had going on here for a long time," said Epstein. "It seems like Adrian was meant to be a Red Sox." Playing with one's ring can also be a sign of nervousness, which Gonzalez clearly was on this day. His answers were often short and formulaic. He tossed in the perfunctory quip about wanting to "beat the Yanks" and repeated often how excited he is to play in Boston. But Gonzalez often ceded the dance floor to Epstein, who carried the half-hour session and made sure to stress that the soft-talking Gonzalez boasts the mental makeup to thrive in a big-market city (all while stressing his ability to put up big numbers in a hitter-friendly ballpark with a big bull's-eye in left field). "He's one of very best hitters in the game, left-handed hitter, tremendous ability to control the strike zone, hit for power, power to all fields," said Epstein. "His natural stroke is to the opposite field, which is a great fit for our ballpark. He hits the ball the other way, so he'll be using the wall, and we think he'll wear the wall out going from [pitcher friendly] Petco [Park] to Fenway Park." While Epstein joked about Gonzalez needing to improve his speed to leg out all those doubles he'll be posting, Gonzalez smiled broadly while talking about all the potential long outs that could be erased by the Green Monster. As introductory news conferences are wont to be, it was all smiles at this lovefest, even with a contract situation hanging over the room. It was fitting, again, that Epstein used catchphrases like "trust" and "good faith" to describe negotiations of a long-term deal that lapsed this weekend without an extension in place. Epstein stressed that strides were made during negotiations and suggested that the progress allowed the Red Sox to pull the trigger on the trade without cold feet, even without a guarantee that this marriage will extend beyond one season. More On The Red Sox Gordon Edes and the rest of the ESPNBoston.com team have the Red Sox covered for you. Blog "I think we learned a lot about each other's position," said Epstein. "There was a lot of good faith that developed over the course of the negotiations and both sides have an understanding of what it will take, when the time is right. We got close to a deal, but in the end the [48-hour] window [to negotiate] lapsed and we didn't have a deal. We decided to go forward with the trade anyway, as a demonstration of the good faith that developed. "Had we not gotten to know Adrian and his wife and what they're all about over the course of the weekend, we probably wouldn't have had that comfort. We think that he's such a good fit -- Adrian wants to be a Red Sox -- and we want him to be a Red Sox for a long time. We're very confident that, when the time is right, we'll be able to work something out." Until then, both sides are content to enjoy the honeymoon. Chris Forsberg is the Celtics reporter for ESPNBoston.com who occasionally helps out with Red Sox coverage. Follow him on Twit

No question the Sox are one of the few teams in baseball that could put together a deal that could entice the Marlins while still not gutting the system. Sox are in a very enviable position in that regard. On a related topic, the news today is that the Sox have already put an offer in front of Napoli. Apparently he still wants to test the water. Seems clear the Sox want him back.

I would say that Naps does not take the QO and the Sox spend money to resign him and bring him back here. They make a very team friendly pass at Salty and then go elsewhere if he balks. They make a play for Drew but it is not enough. WMB breaths a sigh of relief and the infield for 2014 is WMB, XB, Pedey and Naps.

I think the AL waters are a little muddier. But I was only discussing the NL in the case of the Cards. I think the Pirates will regularly peter out and not get there at the end and I refuse to trust a Dodgers team with Crawford and Agons and the master of disaster, Mr. Beckett. Those guys will decide to fail at just the right moment and sink the Dodgers. I am sure we have noticed that the LA crowd has been trying to recover some ground on "the trade" with some trying to argue that it really was more even steven than initial comments suggested. Can't wait for that BS to come home to roost. Crawford's a-holeness and ability to fail is always just resting under the surface. Ultimately, the travel or playing on Sunday or God only know what will catch up to Agons just at the wrong moment. He is not a "big moment" kind of player. I am so glad he was not on the 2013 team. I would bet real money he would have turned out to be a Prince Fielder sort of big moment player...ugh!!! If one of those two guys don't fail at the wrong moment, you can always depend on Mr. Beckett to just drag the whole clubhouse through the mud at the wrong time. The Master of Disaster can kill a whole season on you if you are not careful. There is of course an ace in the hole. If one of those three clowns don't end up screwing it up for the Dodgers Little Nicky will just let one go right through the wickets. As for the AL, there are so many teams that have been spending large and asking Santa for a championship, Rangers, Tigers, Angels and some up and comers to boot.....I think there is more of a log jam at the top in the AL. The Sox have picked up so much ground on everybody else though. We may really not want to admit it but the foundation for the 2013 championship was in fact "the trade" which is one of the things that make the LA crowd and their efforts regarding the trade so comical. We got a championship out of it. What did you guys get? I think BC is too smart to give up all that ground gained in the trade, certainly not quickly. The Sox are in such great shape right now that I think Jacko will be packing his belongings for the duration of the decade at least. Where is Jacko....packing....Where is Jacko....still packing......where is Jacko.....STILL PACKING.....:D

I think the Cards have the inside track on Drew. As hard as the Dodgers are trying with very little change the Cards could still end up atop the NL in 2014. Thought Drew saying he would like to finish his career here in Boston was kinda' funny. Yea right Steven....good coaching Scott. Drew turning down the QO may make it more interesting to see how the Sox react. We may end up learning more about what the Sox really think of Will depending on what they do or don't do on Drew.

Sox still have an inside track to signing him if he does not take the QO since they would not have to give up a pick. I think the media particularly is downplaying the importance and value of these sandwich picks. We have guys being drafted and contributing immediately...especially pitchers. Drew would be a nice fit here especially if WMB does not fit into the Sox future plans. They just slide XB over to 3rd for awhile. If Drew goes elsewhere, the Sox get the pick and we could end up tickled pink with the pick. Would not surprise me all that much if Drew does not take it especially with Boras as his agent. The field of SS's is pretty weak. Drew was ranked pretty highly offensively amongst SS's this year. That is not saying much these days but I am sure Boras will make him seem like Robin Yount has been reborn. Of course "he is Ozzie Smith in the field"...clearly a bargain at any price you care to name. I think it would actually make sense for Drew to take the $14.1M to work a little more on his hitting. He could come back to adoring fans...make a bundle and with really very little in the way of luck, likely turn himself an additional $6-8M in a contract signed next year.

The teams knew about the influx of money and still seem to have committed to not breach the LT cap, at least as far as the Sox and Spanks go. I think LA is the only team left that really does not give a crap about the LT cap even with the new penalties. In the case of LA, they are really on a mission and hoping that the more money they spend the more committed to winning championships they look to the fan base they are trying to attract. The Sox have just won a championship. So I think they will remain committed to not busting through the LT cap. As for the Spanks, they are so f***ed that I don't think they believe busting through the LT cap is really going to do make a significant dif while costing a chunk of change given the new penalties. I think I agree with them. They are f***ed and busting through the LT Cap likely would be kinda' pointless until they can work their way up out of their current quagmire. All by way of saying that I think the real amount of money the Sox have to spend or will spend is tied to the LT Cap. In fact one of the new penalties is that the TV revenue a team expects to get back is severely sliced.

and of course the "what you can live with" is cost/performance over time. Frankly I did not read the material as being necessarily descriptive of Darvish because nobody is trying to value Darvish who is already here and pitching. Heck all of these pieces that we are reading are about Tanaka who is not as yet here and pitching and who everybody is trying to value some way or another. I think if Tanaka's stuff was that terrific, we would see it mentioned more prominently in these pieces. The overarching impression you get from reading them is that Tanaka is a very good version of the best the NPB has to offer. I have always felt that Darvish is the outlier to the typical NPB pitcher and I still think that is the case. Before Darvish came over if I am remembering it correctly, when you would go find a piece trying to provide the same sorts of inputs on Darvish that we are now seeing on Tanaka, the overarching impression you got was that this is a guy that you would swear was nurtured here and that had every bit the stuff you would expect of the very best of the pitchers that were born and bred in this system. I just don't see that coming through the Tanaka material at all. Although as I have already mentioned as usual what we are getting is sort of sketchy. Funny whenever I make an effort to read this stuff about some NPB pitcher or another the more different pieces I read, the less comfortable I become....Supposed to work the other way around. Should feel better about seeing a consensus the more stuff you piece together.:D

I would too Bell. But at a guess and without actually looking I bet the list of successes from that "buy low" category is better on a percentage basis than the list of high ticket, long term contract deals that are considered successful.

It is interesting to note how many guys we have occupying the middle to back ends of the rotation spots even now. Of course at least for today that bunch includes Peavy and Dempster. Buch has really got to be considered a 3 at this point as he simply cannot stay out there. As I have mentioned in earlier posts though both Buch and the Sox would do well to really try to find a way to get Buch over his current health issues and then find some way to deal with his fragility (having nothing to do with heart). That is likely going to be a tall order for one shortened post season as he has to get healthy again first. We may in fact have to resign ourselves to not getting much out of Buch for the first half of the 2014 season.

Boy we are all clutching at straws here because the information we have on Tanaka is NPB based and sketchy and full of PR ********. However the one straw that I have held onto as maybe having some merit is that as positive as some of these reports want to be, they say that Tanaka is down on stuff from Darvish. The comments are made with such conviction that I have to believe we are not talking about just a tick or two of velo and movement but something decidedly noticeable. It is hard for me to envision a pitcher being the Ace or the 1 of a pretty good staff in this league that does not have elite stuff or at least does not start out that way. You can point to American born pitchers that started out with really good stuff that gradually lost it and turned into very successful location and command pitchers but to me that is a different animal. That is a guy that is the pitching version of an Ortiz maybe. Somebody that learned how to pitch while his ability to throw declined. I rarely have much faith long term in the guys that are a bit down on stuff at an early age enjoying that sort of success over here although I fully acknowledge that it works better for pitchers over there. My point being that I don't think that Tanaka's got an outside chance of being an Ace or a 1 on a good MLB staff but that his ceiling really is a 2 and that could easily mean he is a 3. It is true that we don't know much of anything about Tanaka's earlier career, how much he has been used etc etc. Not sure that not knowing helps the case for bringing him over here. At least we know the Sox have been engaged in this sort of stuff before. They are not neophytes. The Sox have a very good international program and certainly their Asian arm is well documented as being fully engaged over there and a solid organizational asset. If they go after Tanaka or pass on him in either case I will likely take it for granted that they are exercising what is an organizational strength to its fullest.