Moon, I would love to agree with you. You're an intelligent man who knows his stuff...... But I just can't do it this time. You're wrong.
You make a valid case for the Marlins ( I barely remember that year) However I counter that with..... Most people aren't like you and can dive into their roster and stats and see through the s*** record... Most just see the record and assume they aren't super great like me. I do the same thing with the NFL though as I have been watching it for years and I swear I was one of the only people on the face of the Earth that thought the Giants could knock the Pats off in 07. Giants were red hot down the stretch, had previously gave the Pats one of their toughest games of the regular season. Also the Giants went into the 13-3 Dallas Cowboys stadium and beat them, then went on the road to the 13-3 Packers and beat them. The giants ended up winning in one of the biggest underdog stories of all time. IN MY OPINION I honestly don't think they were that big of an underdog because they had the top defense in the playoffs and one of the best run attacks in the NFL. They were a very loaded team and arguably had the best wide receiver at the time in Plaxico Burris (infact by the end of season the best defense) And Eli was absolutely incredible the second half of the season.I thought the Giants had the best chance to beat the Pats (better chance than the 11-5 Steelers, 13-3 Colts, 13-3 Packers, 13-3 Cowboys)
And yet.... It's still a massive underdog story being that they finished 10-6 and were a Wild Card team facing the 18-0 mighty Patriots. Nobody dives in and actually looks at how good the Giants were that season.
Same with your argument about the Marlins. They were still an under dog story regardless of the spin people put on. I agree with you that they obviously had an incredibly talented team that year, but I don't think anyone was expecting a World Series from them, and then even further to beat the Yankees. Same with the 06 Cards and the 2011 Cards and the 2010 Rangers who finished with 90 wins. Yankees, Rays, Twins all finished better record. That's 4 teams making the World Series in 16 years. Every 4 years in my opinion it seems an under dog goes to the World Series. I guess it isn't 50/50 which if that is what a crapshoot means then I agree with you..... However it seems to happen more than any other sport.... To the point I would never want to put money on a team for sure going to the World Series.
NFL you could put money on the Pats, Saints, Packers and good chance you will be a rich man.