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Spitball

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Everything posted by Spitball

  1. Spitball
    In my opinion, that is just smart management.
  2. Spitball
    She is indeed very good. Exactly! The best analysis would obviously use both. I wouldn't want my doctor to use just observation, but I would want him to combine his observations with current analytic findings. It makes perfect sense in this informational era.
  3. Spitball
    Yes, but in my opinion, baseball statistics are a nice reference point, as well as indicators of past and future performance. I don't need to break down OPS by oppositional strength to tell me about a player's performance. I believe advanced analytics would be interesting, but not necessary for me. I have studied linear weight formulas, runs created, and other complicated analytics, but I find OBP, OPS, and various splits answer most of my questions about evaluation.
  4. Spitball
    His career slash line in late and close games was .279/.375/.454. His career slash was .285/.379/.462 . I don't see clutch indicated there. His numbers are about career average.
  5. Spitball
    I don't know why oppositional strength is really that important. Wins and loses all count the same. The worst teams will still beat the best teams at some point over the course of a season. Pedro Martinez versus the Yankees was 32 G, 11-11 record, 3.20 ERA, 216.2 IP, 170 H, 63 BB, 261 K, 17 HR, 1.08 WHIP. Not bad but not an indication of clutch. That said, David Ortiz has been mentioned. He appears to be clutch based on our memories. His career slash in the regular season is .285/.379/.547. His late and close career slash is .261/.373/.501. They are pretty close but in no way indicate overall clutch. His post season slash is .283/.402/.538 which is excellent but about his career norm. Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski I believe were also below their career slash lines in late and close games.
  6. Spitball
    This is one of my favorite misconceptions in baseball. I like to compare sure Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki and not going to make it Adam Dunn. Outside of defense in 14 seasons, Dunn was the better offensive player. The batting average advantage goes clearly to Ichiro, and Dunn struck out more than twice as often as Ichiro. But Dunn made it on base more often at a .364 to .360 rate. Dunn OPSed .854 to Ichiro's .771. If we combine RBI and runs scored, Dunn leads 2,265 to 2,020. Strikeout artist Dunn leads in every important measure...yet won't be mentioned in the same breath as Suzuki.
  7. Spitball
    I have expressed this theory myself at one point. This, combined with his willing participation in the beer and fried chicken scandal, had to have the Sox questioning him going forward for huge money into his later thirties. I also believe Epstein was determined to go to ridiculous levels to obtain Lester from his former team. Lester has moved on, and it is time for us to move on.
  8. Spitball
    True, but flyball pitchers generally surrender more extra base hits. I don't think there is a answer as to which type of pitcher is preferable. I do believe the team's ball park and its defense would ideally be the keys to determining which type of pitchers should developed and acquired. Looking at last season's Park Factor statistics, Fenway Park far and away led the majors in favoring doubles. I imagine they want their pitchers to keep the ball on the ground and off the wall. As for the defense, the Red Sox should have defenders that will benefit groundball pitchers. I know some are not sold on Bogaerts, but we will have to see how he develops.
  9. Spitball
    I believe Cherington has a plan with his ground ball specialists. It is a conservative plan, but it is a safe plan. I like it far more than trading for a Hamels at this point. If it proves his plan has glitches, he has the prospects to trade for a Cueto or a similar pitcher.
  10. Spitball
    Pedroia is signed to a team friendly contract through 2021. I think he will be at second base for the Red Sox until he is a Derek Jeter-like-living-statue at the position. I also believe that Moncada will be at third base in 2016 with Sandoval moving to first to replace Napoli.
  11. Spitball
    I am late to the party, but I agree with this projection. It I the best likely scenario with the available talent, contracts, and talent. Cecchini becomes a candidate to switch positions or a trade part.
  12. Spitball
    This is all I can find, but it is not up to date. http://www.soxprospects.com/org.htm
  13. Spitball
    No, the new look is most reliable when it involves analytics and technology.
  14. Spitball
    Anecdotal evidence is surely the most popular way to support a weak argument.
  15. Spitball
    Exactly! Statistical analysis is simply quantifiable information to support visual observations. I am not going to believe a weather forecaster who doesn't use statistical analysis. I am not going to trust a doctor who distrusts statistical analysis. A farmer who distrusts statistical analysis is less likely to be as successful as one who does. Analytics and technology simply enhance and support a professional's opinion. If the statistics disagree with the observation, a new look is needed.
  16. Spitball
    The analytical advancements in statistical studies have been phenomenal. It is difficult to ignore them. They are not fool proof but impressive enough to warrant note of their significance.
  17. Spitball
    If the Sox are truly in on Hamels, I believe they are in a position to play hardball with the Phillies. The Phillies need to move him more than the Sox need to acquire him at this point. The Sox have a rotation that can compete with the others in the AL East. The Phillies have to hope he doesn't get hurt or has a slow start in front of a bad team. The Phillies also have to hope that potential contenders with aces like the Reds (with Cueto) are not out of contention come July and will be in competition for the top prospects. Personally, I would rather have Cueto if it comes down to the July deadline even if he is a free agent to be.
  18. Spitball
    The Red Sox have made some positive additions to the offense. They are gambling on the conservative side on the starting pitching. That is okay with me. It will be easier to correct their conservative approach later than to correct a bad high salaried signing later. No team in the AL East made a truly significant upgrade to their starting pitching for the coming season. Why should the Red Sox risk a bad long term contract to a starting pitcher? Lester pitched like a number three starter in 2012 and for most of 2013. He pitched well in 2014, but many pitchers do in their walk year. He was a willing participant in the beer and fried chicken scandal of 2011. I can see why the Red sox questioned his commitment. The Yankees have a lot of bad long term contracts which prevented them from signing any of the big name starters this off season. The Red Sox were wise not to throw lots of money at an arm for longer than that arm was likely to be productive.
  19. Spitball
    I agree, Fred. I love the old parks, and Fenway Park is the best. A700, is that your dog in your avatar?
  20. Spitball
    Fenway Park is on the National Register of Historical Places and can't be torn down unless it starts to fall down.
  21. Spitball
    Well said, Kimmi. Pessimists expect the worst so they won't be disappointed if the worst happens. It is a self defense mechanism with most pessimists. I am not telling you anything you don't already know, but we all mostly reject what contradicts with what we hold sacred, baseball or otherwise. It is part of life and being on a baseball forum. I am thankful for Fred, A700, and others because they provide debatable topics for us to discuss and argue. Fortunately, some of us can embrace new theology when it emerges. The Red Sox are entering the current season with a vastly improved offense. Their starting pitching lacks a number one, but the AL east is not loaded with starting pitching. Tampa Bay might have the best staff, but their line-up is suspect. Baltimore won last year with Tillman as their ace. Boston has potentially as deep a staff as any team in the division. I am cautiously optimistic.
  22. Spitball
    The Orioles won the AL East without an ace starting pitcher last season. The Atlanta Braves with Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz won only one World Series. The Florida Marlins have won two championships in the last couple of decades. The Giants and Royals made the World Series as wild card teams. There is no formula or guarantee as to what makes a successful team. The Red Sox line-up is very much improved. The starting pitching is lacking an identifiable ace but potentially much improved and deep. The Sox entered 2013 with as many questions as they are facing this season. That season turned out okay, and I am optimistic as to their chances this season.
  23. Spitball
    Why do we need two prediction threads?
  24. Spitball
    Great point! Gripers will gripe. Lester is unlikely to perform up to his numbers for the duration of his contract. Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Justin Verlander all signed long term contracts around the age of thirty-years. They all regressed to some extent. History tells us Lester is likely to regress also. Lester was basically a number four starter in 2012. He was a little better in 2013 before improving in the post season. He was great last season, but it was his walk year. No one would be griping if he had signed elsewhere after the 2012 season.
  25. Spitball
    Optimism: http://www.ispot.tv/ad/7I5l/values-com-baseball-optimism-song-by-kool-and-the-gang
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