Spitball

Johnny Cueto is probably the second best pitcher in the National League, and a fun guy to watch pitch. The Reds need a left fielder with power, and they need young arms to restock their rotation (four of five will be free agents after 2015). Cepedes is also a free agent after 2015, and the Red Sox have depth in the outfield. Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa would sweeten the pot for the talented Cueto, and they may be more suited for the national League. I'd make the guy wear Luis Tiant's number 23 just for fun! Tiant: Cueto:

This perception is why it would not be prudent to move Buchholz at this time. He is at the bottom of his professional value right now.

Just my two cents worth, but I think Kelly is probably a number four or five starter...with potential to be either a number three or possibly even a middle reliever. He is definitely a major league pitcher, but I am not sure he has positively established his niche. I think the Red Sox looked at him that way when they made the trade. He is a fairly young pitcher, but he is more established than a prospect. Whatever role he achieves, I believe he will be a successful major leaguer.

During Game 4 of the 2004 World Series, Manny Ramirez got into an argument with Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Molina was accusing Manny of stealing the Cardinals’ signs. Francona came out of the dugout to keep Manny from getting into trouble. He said to the plate umpire Chuck Meriweather, “Chuck, Manny doesn’t even know our signs.” Francona turned to Manny and asked, “You don’t know our signs, do you, Manny?” Manny replied, sheepishly, “No.”

This might not seem that funny, but at the time, my buddy and I laughed until tears ran down our faces. It was 1974 and the Red Sox had just brought Jim Woods in to team with Ned Martin on the radio broadcasts. It was also the year the Red Sox purchased the contract of legendary pitcher and future Hall of Famer Juan Marichal from the Giants. My friend was not really familiar with National League players, so I filled him in on Juan Marichal's greatness. I was really pumped the Sox had one of the players I had long wished they would obtain. He was as legend in my book, and I may have gone a bit overboard. Anyway, my buddy and I are driving down Haverhill Road in Topsfield and listing to Juan Marichal's first start with the Sox. Jim Woods is doing play by play and calls the play, "Marichal kicks and delivers. There is a long fly to centerfield! Marichal is going back to deep centerfield, and he leaps at the wall and makes an amazing catch!" My buddy' looks at me with wide eyes and says, "Dammit, man! Marichal IS super human!" The problem was it was not Juan Marichal making the amazing catch but centerfielder Juan Beniquez.

Haha! I am pretty sure that was Brooklyn Dodger pitcher Billy Loes. He was also a character.

Horrible fielding former Red Sox first baseman Dick Stuart (Dr. Strangeglove) from the early 1960s had a classic. He was with the Phillies in the mid-1960s when lefty hitting Braves' third baseman Eddie Mathews hit a vicious liner towards right field. Stuart somehow caught it. As Mathews approached first, Stuart said, "I must be slowing down, Eddie, because I used to be able to get out of the way of those." Stuart was such a terrible fielder that Red Sox fans once gave him a standing ovation when he cleanly picked up a hotdog wrapper that was blowing by first base.

Major League Baseball made it an official statistic in 1984. On base percentage is calculated using the following formula: H+BB+HBP/AB+BB+HBP+SF.

OBP didn't become an official statistic until the early 1980s, but I do remember my little league coaches chattering, "A walk is as good as a hit!" When I coached, I chatted it myself, usually to a weak hitter I was afraid would swing at ball four. Haha! It made me realize what my early coaches thought of my ability and judgement. I must say I am definitely not a math person, but I am 61 years-old and have always loved the statistical part of baseball. I remember riding my bike to downtown Topsfield every summer day to get five packs of baseball cards for a quarter. I'd sit on the sidewalk outside Gil's Grocery and open each pack. I'd end up with five sticks of that hard bubble gum in my mouth, and I'd study the statistics on the back of each card. I would amaze people because I would earn Cs in math but could tell you a lot of yearly homerun, RBI, and batting average statistics of a lot of players. I have played, coached, and watched a lot of baseball through the years. I think some of the advanced statistics are just too much, but many have enhanced my understanding and enjoyment of the game. I have long felt that schools should take all the boys (and girls) who struggle with math and place them in a baseball statistic class. I know it would have provided me with a great deal of motivation to learn. In fact, I credit my weekly issue of The Sporting News with honing my reading skills.

I watch virtually every Red Sox game, also. Middlebrooks has been bad all year long. His K-rate in the first half of the season is about exactly as bad as his second half rate. He has problems...but those problems cannot be absolutely, without a doubt, pinpointed to the Red Sox philosophy of driving up the pitch count. All year long, Middlebrooks has swung within the first three pitches almost 50% of the time. He is struggling for other reasons.

Okay, Although I still contend I have valid arguments on all of our discussion, I will leave the other parts to concentrate on this. Before tonight, Middlebrooks has had 234 plate appearances. He has swung and either had a hit or made an out in 101 plate appearances that were on the third pitch or less. He apparently is not going deep into counts very often. He was ahead in the count on 151 times in all of his plate appearances. Sometimes it is the talent level and not the philosophy.

The outliers don't prove anything one way or the other. Outliers happen in baseball for a variety of reasons and can be dismissed because they don't fit the general pattern indicated by larger sample sizes. I do agree with Bellhorn that OPS is a more telling statistic for me. OBP tells us how often a player managed not to make an out while, and all non-outs are measured equally. SLG puts weighted value to each extra base that gives a success rate for reaching multiple bases. Together they give a telling statistic that measures not making an out with power. It isn't a perfect stat and there are more complicated formulas, but it is easy to figure and to use for comparison.

You have not really made your case so much as repeated your opinion. Throw out Baltimore and St. Louis as outliers and the top OBP and the top run scorers in mlb are lumped together. The top ten scoring teams run from .331 to .319. The middle ten scoring teams run from .318 to .300. The bottom ten run scoring teams run from .319 to .292. Obviously, it is better to reach base more and not make an out. But, there are clearly other important factors to scoring runs. Slugging percentage is important. Line-up balance is important where a team's OBP can be skewed by a couple of on-base specialists(see the 2013 Cincinnati Reds). Luck, good and bad, can also come into play (see the 2014 Orioles and Cardinals).

I think you know that two teams don't prove much. Statistics don't give an absolute answer but a pretty clear indication of future probability. It is like studying horse a racing form. You can look for indicators that will greatly improve your chances of successful betting...but there are no absolutes. Can you prove this??? You don't know that Middlebrooks and his failures are about a team-wide philosophy. Please explain why members of the team like Brock Holt and Mookie Betts are doing so well. How do they succeed in the system while Middlebrooks fails? The A's have always adhered to the OPS theory, yet they have signed Cespedes and traded for the likes of Jose Gullion. Again, you need a larger sample size to prove your point.

Team ERAs: Boston-4.01, Baltimore-3.44, Kansas City-3.51, Seattle-3.18 Team ERAs: Texas-4.56, Minnesota-4.63 Besides, I believe the argument was about OBP and runs scored and not about team success.

Well, the Sox will certainly finish with one of the ten worst records in baseball. That is bad...but fortunate. Unlike the Yankees and several other under-achieving teams, the Sox can sign top free agents (those with qualifying offers) without losing draft picks. That is pretty good news.

One hit in four at-bats. He only saw 11 pitches.

n/m

Castillo to start tonight versus the Pirates. Here is an interesting article by Alex Speier: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2014/09/17/ready-rusney-primer-castillo-red-sox-725-milli?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I am glad you found your way over here, Fred. I don't always agree with your rants, but I always enjoy them.

You have to assume the Reds will sign at least one of Cueto, Latos, and/or Leake. Cueto is the best of the trio and surely the Reds' top objective to resign. Latos has had injury issues this season, but he just purchased a home in Cincinnati. Leake is under-rated and perhaps the most re-signable. The Reds and Red Sox do not really match up well as trade partners unless Boegarts is involved. I suspect they will not be trading with each other.

You are also A-OK in my book, Fred. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing as long as we do it with respect for each other.

Fred, like you, I have been involved with baseball all my life. I am 61 years-old and have played, coached, and witnessed probably thousands of games. I have been a Red Sox fan since the early 1960s when we could only root for the Sox to stay out of last place. I understand how to witness and evaluate elements of the game. I also feel fortunate to have accepted many of the statistical measures that verify or correct what my eyes tell me. We all form opinions about baseball. Opinions are judgments formed about something and are not necessarily based on fact nor reality. A fact is a truth that can be verified by the existence of proof such as a statistic. A reasoned judgment is basically an opinion based on facts or evidence that can be proven beyond any doubt. For many years, I have formed numerous opinions about baseball. A statistical verification helps me make reasoned judgments rather than simply form opinions. I still form opinions but I can't argue with facts. I am not a fan of all sabermetrics. I don't care for WAR and a few other aspects, but statistics give me an additional dimension to my years of baseball experience. Like the Vin Scully quote, I use statistics to "support" my opinions. Incidentally, the Scully quote is about twenty years old. Just last year he was quoted by Murray Chass as saying about sabermetrics, “It’s beyond me. I try to be as old-fashioned as possible – batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases. I don’t disapprove of those who use them, but it’s beyond me. It’s too much for me.” I enjoy our discussions but don't want to be improperly labeled. I am old-school but accept the undeniable evidence provided by statistics.

Curt Gowdy will always be my favorite announcer. I loved Fred Cusick and Johnny Peirson. Johnny Most and one of the most famous moments in Boston sports' history.

Scully has been excellent through the years, but Curt Gowdy, Ned Martin, Fred Cusick, Johnny Peirson, and Johnny Most will always be my favorite and most knowledgeable announcers.