Well, if we and they base the award only by the numbers (the way it is supposed to work), the question is pretty easy to answer.
Now, If A-God finishes leading at least 2 departments of the triple crown, and put 25-30 HR, he will win, even if Bautista would have a better OPS and HRs.
Almost every player goes at some point of a season through some kind of slump, and Adrian is not immune. The good thing is that his slump is now and not in the second half of September or even worse, on October... he'll be fine.