SoxFanForsyth

Papelbon is elite. The only thing is that he was wildly inconsistent over the past 2 years. 1down year and an elite year in past 3. I wanted Pap back, but at the same time, I understand the reasoning of not wanting to commit $50mm over 4 years to him.

This is horrible. Last offseason, I said I would never want Pap back because he was on the downside. Then 2011 happened. Lets just say I'm eating crow. Letting Papelbon walk does, however, free up about $12mm from last season that we can use to put toward an elite SP (hopefully via trade). The only reason I'm not mortified by this is because last year, when we let Vic go and everyone everywhere was freaking out, we ended up with Gonzo and Crawford. Let's let the offseason pan out before we hammer Cherington. This is not a good start, though.

Crawford started playing for the Rays when he was 20. 20 years old. You're arguing that we shouldn't have signed Carl Crawford because his stats are manipulated by numbers that he put up when most players are in A ball?? Come on man. Be real. In the two years preceding his deal, which encompasses over 1,300 plate appearances, he put up a .306 Average, an .834 OPS while averaging 54 SB, 17 HR, 30 Doubles, 10 Triples, 80 RBI, and 103 Runs. People who dog on the Carl Crawford signing either 1. Are lying hypocrites who loved it when it happened and hate it now, or 2. Overvalue Crawfords OPS when he was 20 and undervalue his OPS in the 2 years before coming here. EDIT: I'm not saying we didn't overpay for him, because we did, but he was (and still is, in my mind) a player worth overpaying. He brings way more than just power to the table.

From 2008 - 2011, Lincecum's ERA+ is at 144. That's park and league adjusted. To put that into perspective, in that same span, Lester's ERA+ is 135, topping out at 144 in 2008. Buchholz is 119 from 08-11. Halladay, from 2008-2011, had an ERA+ of 160, which is probably about the best you're going to see from a SP.

It was just an example, there are quite a few quality relief pitchers out there that we can go after.

I just want to be clear. You are for trading Ellsbury, just as long as it doesn't require the addition of Kalish or Reddick because we will need them for OF depth? I mean I'm ok with that, but I think we can probably find a 4th OF type player on the FA market for pretty cheap, and someone who can replicate the success that Kalish/Reddick would have coming off the bench. Even go with a guy like Andruw Jones or Conor Jackson. Cheap money, decent production, hits LHP well.

This is interesting. If the Sox traded for him, it would take Ellsbury + a top prospect (think Ranaudo, Middlebrooks, Boegarts, Jacobs, Kalish) + a low level prospect to get it done, and the Sox would probably get a mid-level prospect back with Lincecum. Would we be willing to throw Ellsbury + Boegarts + Chris Balcom-Miller for Lincecum + Mid-Level? Thats a big, big haul, but if we're being honest, that's probably what it would take. Personally, I'd pull the trigger.

Run. Away. From. Sizemore. Seriously. As fast as you can. Why does this team need another LH outfielder who horrid splits vs LHP for the past 2 years?!? The deal makes no sense. For $5-6mm that you'd be spending on Sizemore, why don't you go out and get some SP depth? Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Mitch Talbot, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Young. I would rather have any of those pitchers over a gamble on Sizemore any day of the week. Signing Sizemore would be a horrid allocation of our money when our most obvious, glaring hole is in SP. Revamp the bullpen with a guy like Kerry Wood (who killed it in the AL East in the last half of 2010), David Aardsma, and Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez is not the greatest RP, but he's got solid splits and could be a huge help in the bullpen when this team is having to navigate through some tough lefties, and maybe, just maybe, our new manager will know how to use a LOOGY.

Good call. I had no idea where to put it. Thanks Emmz.

Don't kill me for this, it's completely off topic, but isn't there some kind of superlative thing at the end of the year? Talksox poster of the year, Negative Nancy of the year, etc?

I definitely considered this, but I think that he struggled in LF because of the wall. If we open him up and give him some room to run, I think he'll do just fine. Also, a lot of guys struggle defensively when they're struggling offensively, which I think was the case here. Either way, I don't think we should run away from him defensively speaking because he had a tough transition year. And if we could get some high value for Ellsbury, I'd be willing to at least see what he could do in CF.

The only point I was trying to make is that, recently, more often than not, the gamble of taking a guy from a RP role to a SP role has worked. Whether that's because of better preparation, better conditioning, or what, I don't know. But I do see quite a few successful transitions, and not many failures, especially with low-effort power pitchers like Bard (as ORS said, Joba was a max-effort guy) Also, Bard has thrown 148 IP over the past 2 seasons. He has taken on a considerable workload over the past 2 seasons, so it's not like we would be having to stretch him from 45 IP to 180 IP. Going from around 75 IP to 180 IP is a big jump, but not as risky as some (not necessarily you) make it seem. CJ Wilson went from 74 IP in 09 to 203 in 10, and 223 in 11. Ogando went from 41 IP in 2010 to 170 IP in 2011. And by the way, Ogando started 3 total games in his entire professional career prior to 2011. I'm not saying it's not a risk. There is definitely risk involved. But to say that putting him in a rotation on a 180 IP limit provides more risk than reward is crazy IMO. We used Bard in 70 games in 2011, 73 in 2010. We've basically used him every other game over the past 2 seasons. Between that, along with getting up, warming up, and sitting back down, I just don't see this enormous risk.

So you're telling me that CJ Wilson, who was converted to the bullpen because of arm problems, is less of a gamble than Bard? Masterson is a lot like Bard. He started 27 games in A-AA ball, posted ERA's in the mid-4's, and got moved to the bullpen where he excelled.

Exactly. CJ Wilson, Alexi Ogando, Justin Masterson, all come to mind, and they're just in the past few years. I don't know. I just think the likelihood of Bard getting hurt and/or ruined because of a move to the rotation is greatly exaggerated.

Personally, I don't think it's a huge gamble. The sooner the decision is made, the sooner Bard can start prepping for the season as a starter, working on his stamina, etc. It's dangerous when you make the decision in Spring Training, or in January. It's not much of a gamble when you make the decision in November. Plus, from a cost perspective, it's much cheaper to go find a replacement for Bard in the bullpen than it is to go find a SP with as much upside as Bard has.

I have no idea what you're talking about. :harhar:

Couple things: 1. Bard had a total of 22 games started in the minors, in which he threw 75 total innings, and posted a 9.1 BB/9. Spare me on the minor league numbers. It's an absolutely minuscule sample size, and he was 22 years old. 2. When he first came up, he basically didn't have a change. He's throwing his change up 5X more now than he did when he was first coming through the system (per fangraphs). He's now throwing a 2 seamer, a 4 seamer, a filthy slider, and a change up. He's got the pitches to make it as a starter. 3. His command, overall, is not even close to being the same as when he was 22. He walked 9.1 per 9 in A ball when he was 22. Last year, he walked 3 per 9. You make it sound as if a pitcher is not able to develop or improve once he gets drafted. Youk never hit more than 8 HR in the minors. Ellsbury never hit more than 7. Players develop. Bard was in his first year of professional baseball. Sure, he had a bad year. But writing him off as a starter because of a bad 75 IP in A ball when he was 22?!?!? Come on man.