4M is overpay for Bailey, because you don't know if he could pitch a whole season.
Bard is getting less than half, been healthy the last 3 years and pitch more innings. No AL reliever has pitch more games and innings in fact since 2010.
Right now he is still a starter and I hope he is our 5th starter by June if things goes right. A relieve role he could thrive with a reportorial similar to Bard.
Lackey was a 66+ ERA guy. It's always an addition by jettisoning a guy who put up those numbers.
Replace him with someone who is more of league average of 100+ERA (4.50 ERA) the wins total should go up a couple. Lackey got a .500 record thanks to the great run support. No reason to believe the offense will go napping in 2012.
Who replace Lackey? Just about anyone. Give Tazawa/Wilson a chance. Both got options to go down. They could not do worse than Lackey.
If you evaluate him as a reliever vs a starter, which is more valuable. Starters pitch 200 innings. Relievers pitch 70 innings. He isn't any reliever. He was the most important reliever for the Red Sox mid 2009-2011. We know he excels as the relieve ace. Will he as a starter? Is it worth the risk to lose a weapon out the bullpen?