We've all been kind of collectively holding our breaths waiting for Steven Wright to regress into a pumpkin. His first few outings suggested that a significant regression was in order, after his first few starts his xFIP was somewhere in the high 4's or low 5's and his BABIP was incredibly low.
Now I don't know how common it is for a pitcher to simply continue to pitch well until the underlying stats catch up with the good numbers, but that seems to be happening with Wright. According to Fangraphs, Wright's BABIP, while still low, is at about the same point it was last year, suggesting that he simply allows a lot of weak contact. Wright has also maintained a very high strikeout rate for a knuckleballer, at still north of 8 k/9, meaning he's still keeping good lineups off balance with his mix of stuff. His strikeout rate last year was actually pretty high for a knuckleballer as well, at 6.5 k/9. This combined with the weak contact generating a low BABIP is what has allowed him to be this effective, and yet in each case the numbers are either maintaining, or actually improving.
As for FIP and XFIP, both are now in a range where good pitchers tend to live. Wright's FIP stands at 3.23, and his xFIP at a 4.17. Both very solid numbers that throw into question the idea that a major correction in performance is on its way.
I think that as bats heat up towards midsummer Wright may have some games where he lets in a few more runs than he has so far. But just looking for the numbers, and bearing in mind they probably will dip at least a bit as hitters adjust to Wright (though in the only game against a team that's seen Wright a second time, he still shut the Blue Jays down pretty comfortably), the whole concept of Wright experiencing a major regression or turning into a pumpkin is looking a little farfetched.
One area of concern with Wright is his walks, he could use to get those down. I think some of those extra runs he'll allow in July and August are going to come from walks followed by him trying to sneak his BP fastball in for a strike to get ahead of the next hitter and letting up a long one. Still, it looks like we may have a good pitcher on our hands for the longish term out of nowhere, and for a franchise that has developed rather few really strong starting pitchers in awhile, that's exciting.