Dojji

*sigh* We've been over this before. I guess you really can't make a horse drink when you lead them to water...

Wilkerson > Kotsay. Brad was a pretty talented hitter once upon a time and there's always the hope he can get back to that. He's spent more PA's as a bad hitter than a good one though Even there though he plays all 3 OF + 1B and I was thinking of him at points this year as a possible player who could help us in the Kotsay/Moss/Hinske role.

Clement = DH. Not much of a dilemma.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjZOg39NW5U Wow, Jack. Wow.

As opposed to Lester, who is, if nothing else, moderately durable and hasn't had a sports related injury history. If a guy is a horse it's safe to push him. If like Joba he's had some problems, you don't want to frig with that too much.

A young healthy Tek did not catch Wake. Will they really ask an aging Tek to do that? Bard was toast the minute Tek reupped

At no point after May was Daisuke the #2 starter. For all his struggles, after May it was either Beckett-Lester or Lester-Beckett the rest of the way. I really don't think that's going to be a factor. IMHO Lester looks better than Pettitte did at the same age (Lester's 2008 was better than all but 1 year of Pettitte's New York career). He probably won't repeat his 2008 but if he does he'll be pushing Beckett for ace status in this rotation. Penny is the pitcher least likely of that group to succeed in the American League East. That, or Broxton took over the closer's job and made it his own while Saito was hurt and helped lead a previously struggling Dodgers team to the playoffs. Well it does tell me something. It tells me that Scott Proctor must have been unavailable, because otherwise he'd have been the closer, setup man, long reliever and lefty specialist (after his arm fell off again). Smiltz is also coming off one of the best statistical years of his career in '07 and it's not like the team doesn't have alternates if Smoltz can't make it back. He's the ultimate low risk gamble. ... that he earned himself in the National League West. At least the others are talented and consistently effective players when healthy. Brad Penny recalls Carl Pavano more than Josh Beckett.

You're overrating MLE's a bit. They're at best a statistical divining rod. A slightly-less-than-completely-uneducated guess.

That's an excuse. It's not like anyone else is getting a bargain on FA's anyhow.

There's no doubt whatsoever in anyone's mind that Beckett can rebound, that's the wrong question, the question is will he rebound, and I think it's likely. I have a sneaking suspicion that with 2 big league years under his belt this is the year that Daisuke really shows us what he is. Wouldn't rule it out, but I think it's more likely that we just saw a kid "get it" last year and that he won't let it go again. In Penny's case, hope not. Moer seriously, I'm not sure exactly how much we're counting on any of those guys. In each case we have replacements lurking in the minors just waiting for a chance. Buchholz, Bowden and Kris Johnson all can stand in if Penny and Smoltz do flop, Masterson's proven he can do both at at least an adequate level, and Jones looks like a pretty good bullpen prospect and WILL get playing time this year if he repeats his 2008 numbers (durable lefty with Jones' AAA numbers, don't tell me you can keep that guy in AAA all year!) As much as I'm not that big on Buck, I'm not convinced he had it that far apart. His strikeout numbers are good, that tells me that he's an adjustment away from pulling a Lester. A lot of strikeout pitchers have a year like Buck had. Witness Randy Johnson. Witness Johan Santana. I think that if he can work out the trouble with his fastball and place it the way he's supposed to be able to we'll have a dominant guy on our hands. Again, we have depth here. This is why I considered extending Youkilis to be a big offseason priority and Teixeira a small one. If Lowell DOES go down we can go to Youkilis 3B, Bailey/Carter/Anderson 1B at any time. Umm... yes? Does he need to? Sure be nice if he could get his OBP up over .350 or so but really he only needs to make modest progress to be a successful big league CF. You never know, but it's statistically unlikely. THere's no statistical sign that he got lucky in any way, this just looks like Youkilis getting familiar enough with the league that that good eye of his turns from seeing pitches to take and walk to seeing pitches to crush over the Monstah. This is perhaps the big question. Drew's ability to stay on the field is probably the one thing that we're actually counting on a guy for where I can't honestly say I like our depth options. It's one of the reasons I wish a prospect not named Brandon Moss had been part of the Bay trade. The Sox need a lot of thingsd to go their way to be a perfect, immaculate, spotless, 130-win baseball team in 2009, They can contend even if a lot of the se answers come back as a no.

(shrink that image please)

1 an an option. That was always the standard that I'd be OK with the Return of Tek. Not thrilled with incentives based on games played in the second year because THAT provides Tito what you might call a moral incentive to make sure "his guy" gets his money.

I'm gonna sit on the fence until I actually hear he's signed. Remember that a Teixeira to Boston deal was "imminent" several times

I really doubt that. Any catcher who can put up good AAA numbers will get a good long chance by SOMEONE even if it isn't us. Catchers who can hit are very hard to come by after all. I think the worst case for Kottaras is a career as a journeyman backup with a few great years and mostly not. Of course, if he reaches his ceiling and hits 15-20 HR's a year in the bigs with a ~.240ish AVG, his position can sustain that and get him a nice contract.

Actually Theo tends to follow through when he says "we're going this far and no further." Name me one recent deadline Theo made that wasn't actually a deadline.

Kinda sad really. I know what Tek has declined into now, but I also know what he was at his peak and what that meant to the Sox. Godspeed, Jason. You will be missed.

It's what one might charitably call the ARod Effect. We didn't get him therefore we never really wanted him, and any policy that allows success despite not getting the guy we didn't want anyway is thus praised as a semantic ally.

Not to mention, again, with the economic downturn a lot of noncontending teams will be looking to shed salary so if we do have a hole in catcher for instance we might be able to pick a guy up. Say Johjima has the rebound year I predicted he would and the Mariners decide they're a few years out and want to put Clement behind the dish to see if he can develop into a catcher. If our options are unsatisfactory I'm sure the Mariners, who love power relievers, would be happy to take Dan Bard off our hands for an aging catcher who probably will be gone or ineffective by the time they're relevant again -- but might turn in a couple championship caliber years for us. Or even better, let's say the Guardians decide to run with Shoppach and VMart is on the block for the right price. Considering the state of the Guardians pen, Bard is also a good piece for them.

And I said I feel the situation is unlikely to come up. The two statements are not incompatible.

I don't think there's going to be a "just the backup" this year. Even if Tek comes back his role will be greatly reduced.

Since whoever our catcher is he's unlikely to bat higher than 7th however...