Dojji

You kidding? BA is the single biggest influence in slugging. It's TB/BA, so every single counts.

Actually it reaches it pretty exactly, that's what "played to his career averages" means. You guys are spoiled and can't deal with a down year even when it doesn't even impact on-field results.

He lost his feel. Splitter's a feel pitch. Point is though, it hasn't really hurt his numbers that much.

Stop it with the ridiculously high standard for Papelbon. Yes, his performance in prior years whetted our appetite for excellnce, but that's exactly what Papelbon gave us last year. By ERA and ERA+ Papelbon played exactly to his career averages last year, so I fail to see how he could possibly have "underperformed" last year -- and for pity's sake, most pitchers would KILL for a 1.14 WHIP. Just cut it out. Please.

I'm all for it. Let's showcase the sport as much as possible. We'd have to do a bit of standardization to make it really work -- like deciding whether Japanese or American baseballs would be used for example -- but anything that gives me more baseball to watch is all good as far as I'm concerned.

I know. I'm saying you probably should be. Wang was certainly not your #2 starter anytime in the last 2 years.

Consider the year Beckett had in 2008, Jacko. It's not really that absurd a claim.

When what you're claiming is patently absurd on the face of it,. Jacko, expect nothing more than a Dipreism for your efforts.

No, Wang and his 4.05 ERA over 90 innins in 2008 wasn't your #2 starter. Matsuzaka was much closer to Lester than that -- heck, Matsuzaka led the team in wins in 2008 and was a better value as a pitcher than Beckett, who is coming off an off season..

And to hear you talk last offseason, Wang was going to be your #3 as well, behind Sabathia and Burnett, so I'd call it even.

This is a thread about the 40-man roster. Try to keep up.

One of Hall and Lowrie will probably be the big league utility man -- my guess is Lowrie, since he'll probably burn his last option at some point this season -- as bad as Lowrie's been, the SS market has been so weak I STILL don't think he'd clear waivers. Anyway he'll be cheaper to bring back than Hall will. Either way though, you kind of need 2 infielders in the minors who are on the 40-man roster so it'd be Lowrie and someone, or Hulett and someone, or Hulett and Lowrie. I just voted "Hulett any someone," and for want of a better idea picked Khoury as "someone." Hulett will stick around as the emergency callup guy, which probably means he gets a place on the 40-man going forward until someone like Navarro or Tejeda proves they deserve it more. I'd add Iglesias to that list, but he's probably the guy who takes over Hall's spot on the roster when he moves on.

I wouldn't count on the Sox to be iin the market for a utility man at that point. For one thing as you know I haven't given up on Lowrie, and for another it really depends on what Hall does for us in 2010. It's entirely possible that all he'll provide is a bit of IF/OF versatility and not much stick, and if that's the case we can likely to better. Or he could, I suppose, recapture his 2006 form, take off and never look back, but I think the aliens will have landed before that happens. Anywho, Hulett's on the 40-man roster projection mostly because Hulett IS, indeed, on our 40 man roster right now and with our light infield depth and his offensive abilities as a 3 position infielder I think it quite likely he'll still be around at the end of the year.

This is the 2011 roster, I didn't think we had Hall after the coming season. Am I mistaken? EDIT: Ahh, there's a club option. I'm pretty sure we can count on Theo not to pick it up though. l don't think he'd be willing to pay $9.25 million for what Hall brings to the table -- or even take that kind of cap hit -- when the buyout is only $500K

Darn tootin'. I think any expectation decline from Matsuzaka is made up for and then some from a combination of Lackey and Buchholz, we went into 2009 wondering how well our catching held up and we're going into 2010 with VMart, plus the emergence of Bard and Ramon Ramirez really gives us bullpen depth most teams would kill for. I'll also measure Scutaro up against Lugo and count us a winner, even though I didn't like the Scutaro signing, and similarly with Beltre and Lowell Also most of our underperformers from '09 are either not on the roster anymore, or are strong rebound candidates whose performance we're in a position not to need to rely on this year. I count Matsuzaka, Lowrie, Varitek and Delcarmen in that group. My biggest concern is that we've maybe lost some OBP, but I think our fielding should keep the other team off base enough to make up for that.

I put Hulett on the 40 man roster not because I expect a ton out of him, but more because he's going to be on it anyway, this year -- and because our infield depth is so bad that we're going to wind up relying on him if something goes wrong with Scutaro anyway.

I hear that argument. The problem there is that with a guy like Nava, if you want to take advantage of his prime years you have to promote him fairly aggressively. The other problem is that the minor league season is onlt 130 games or so so if you make a guy wait 100 games you might as well hold him at that level for the whole season. . I think there's a decent chance that Nava's in AAA by game 50 and contending for a big league job. All he's got in his way is Bubba Bell after all, that's not much of an obstacle.

Going into 2011 we're going to need a really respectable 4th OF. Cameron will be a 39 year old CF, plenty of injury potential there, and we'll have Drew in the last year of his deal -- if he plays 130 games I'll be very pleasantly surprised. I've got projections right now on Fangraphs that put Nava as a better candidate to be that 4th OF than either Reddick or Kalish. Realistically, both Reddick and Kalish need to be groomed as potential starters anyway and not get jerked around between levels any more than the team can help. Nava, on the other hand, has that combination of talent and expendability that makes him a better candidate for a bench role than a guy who should be getting a full season of reps in AAA at this point. I'm not saying he should break camp with the team in 2010, that would be ridiculous. What I AM saying is that Nava is an indy ball signing, not a college draftee, and he needs to be treated a little different from a guy who starts his pro career 3-7 years younger than he did. Even if the standards are higher because of the volatility of indy ball prospects, there needs to be a point beyond which he's taken seriously as a prospect -- a standard that he can meet that would clear a path to the big leagues for him even though he DID start his pro career at age 24. And consistently producing at a .900 OPS level or greater as you advance rapidly through the system needs to be somewhere near that freaking point.

At what point do we set aside the question of age, and admit that Daniel Nava is starting to show some exciting potential? He's now torn through AA for half a season to the tune of a 1.047 OPS. Once you get to AA or so, the "age appropriate" question starts to become less important, especially when you put up an OBP there of pretty danged near .500 in a decent sample size. He's got more work to do to prove he isn't a fluke, but frankly, even given his irregular path to the majors Nava's development IMHO has reached the point that prospect watchers should be taking him seriously. And while his BABIP is high, it's been consistently high over the last two years -- and a regression to the mean wouldn't really put his offensive #'s out that much anyway (IIRC it'd cut his OPS down to ~.825 or so -- still quite respectable). Fangraphs has a projection out that shows Nava at .260/.330/.365. That's within spitting distance of replacement level at least and it compares to Josh Reddick's .227/.285/.379 and Ryan Kalish's .241/.302/.363. So the statheads are starting to "like" Nava, which with his high IsoD is not that surprising. I like his chances to become at least a switch-hitting cross between David Murpgy and Gabe Kapler -- a first rate "tweener" in other words -- and those are quite valuable on a championship team.

OK I'm going to go out on some limbs here. Limb #1: Ortiz is not renewed. It's actually possible we will take him back at reduced cost if he produces at an above average rate. Limb #2: The Sox are going to be in a position to spend. There's going to be some money coming off the books and we'll be looking for quality replacements Limb #3: One of Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo becomes our presumptive starting 1Bman of the future over the course of 2010. Limb #4: Beltre has a great year and heads back to the market to cash in. So with that in mind: CATCHER: Starter: Victor Martinez: Will be re-signed if possible. The drop-off to either Luis Exposito or Mark Wagner, or any free agent catcher not named Mauer, is significant so the Sox have every incentive to make VMart happy for a couple years. Backup: Mark Wagner. He's got all the hallmarks of a fairly decent backup and he's not getting any younger. After 2010 it'll be big leagues or bust for him. In AAA: Luis Exposito (starter) Dusty Brown (backup, here mostly because he's already on the 40-man and Lavarnway won't be ready yet, and to make sure Exposito isn't the victim of an emergency rush job) FIRST BASE: Starter: Derrek Lee. I think Lee is going to be available, and would be a good fit for 2 years and an option. He's a 3 time gold glover with a good approach at the plate and a Fenway friendly spray chart. If he's a FA i prefer him instantly over re-upping Beltre. I'd go for Pena, but Lee's skillset is more likely to age well. Backup: Jeff Natale, Aaron Bates, or Ross Gload, depending on what the team feels they need out of a backup 1B. Natale would provide patience and work the count, but without much power, Bates would field well but probably not hit, and Gload would probide LHH matchup possibilities. AAA: Lars Anderson. If he hits at all he'll be placed on the 40-man at the end of 2010 -- he might even earn a September callup Backup: ONE of Natale and Bates. The other gets cut if he doesn't crack the roster. Given their ages and Natale's injury history he's probably the odd man out. INFIELD: Second Base: Pedroia Third Base: Youkilis Shortstop: Scutaro* Backup: Jed Lowrie In AAA: Travis Denker Tug Hulett Ryan Khoury Too danged little else. Any real depth problems we run into at second, third or short, we'll have to deal with from outside the system, especially since the Astros took Jimenez. this is particularly a problem at SS and 3B, neither of which we have even a replacement level backup for right now -- although maybe Hulett or Denker could serve in an emergency. OUTFIELD: RF: Drew* CF: Cameron* LF: Ellsbury Backup: Reddick. I think Reddick starts to prove himself next year and cracks the roster officially as a backup the year after. There should be plenty of opportunities for him to get playing time with an aging Drew and an aging Cameron both pencilled in as regulars. In AAA Ryan Kalish: This might actually be reversed with Reddick -- Kalish could be better 4th OF material with his skillset vs. Reddick's, since Kalish adds an element of speed Reddick really doesn't. Daniel Nava: There is literally no point in keeping this man around unless he gets a chance to crack the bench, and frankly he's earned at least a look IMHO. He's done everything that was asked of him well, destroyed the minors at every level, and has a good bench skillset, especially if the switch-hitting pans out at the big league level. He'd have to really clunk at the AAA level in 2010 for me to think he isn't at minimum very strong bench candidate. Pitchers: Rotation: Lester Beckett (will be renewed, there's no real reason we can't keep him around) Lackey Matsuzaka Buchholz Minors: Bowden Tazawa One of the joys of this rotation is how simple it will be to keep it together over multiple seasons -- just re-sign Beckett and you're done. Bullpen: Papelbon Delcarmen Bard RamRam Richardson (LH) Okajima (LH, we still hold arb control over him IMHO) Doubront (Long) Minors: Bowden Tazawa Mills Weiland (Possibly Kelly, if he beats the door down, which he could) Ryne Miller (underrated bullpen prospect with IMHO more potential than he gets credit for) Fernando Cabrera (mostly cuz, iunno, he's already there) * last year of his deal