Dojji

I don't think "ignoring the problem" is fair. "hoping to ride it out" is probably more accurate. I mean, who could really predict Brown, Wagner AND one Tek and V-Mart all being out at the same time? I mean, stuff happens but that's pretty much a doomsday scenario. I really wish we hadn't lost Kottaras. Why o why did we re-sign Varitek?? Sigh. OK. Probably Molina then. We really need some guys to get healthy.

DANG, what next? So Dusty Brown to Boston?

*snrk* Problem is that the guys we think of as acceptable replacements are people like Maicer Izturis or Felipe Lopez. Those guys cost talent that you don't want to be spending for a 1 or 2 month replacement. so yeah, it looks like we limp forward with whoever we can until one of Lowrie or Pedroia gets healthy and take bets as to whether the world ends first. The one guy I see who might be an available replacement, who won't cost THAT much, is Cristian Guzman. Guzman can't be a big part of the Nats' plans, his value isn't that big, but he's hit in the recent past and should be a non-disaster at 2B.

Now would be a great time for Lowrie.\ Failing that, call up Tug Hulett. This is exactly what he's on the roster for.

Holy crap, it's a walking sistine chapel!

Yeah it doesn't change the part where if Bard became the closer, Paps would want to be traded. Whether Bard is the better reliever or not, we still can't spare Paps. You can talk about how BS that is, doesn't make it any less a fact.

Yeah, that's because any time a reliever blows a lead it counts as a blown save. For some reason some people think it's only a SVO when a reliever comes in in the 9th and that's just not true. It's a SVO when you were the last reliever to enter the game with your team ahead, either because the game ended or because you blew the lead. The scoring rules for saves were devised when relievers would still come in in the 7th and finish the game, so bear that in mind. That's also why one game can have two blown saves, which actually IIRC happened last night.

Bear in mind that the setup man gets the blame when he blows a save in the 8th but no credit under SV% for making a hold. SV% is a very unreliable stat but it's even worse when you use it for setup men.

At the point when they want Papelbon to demand a trade. I still have full faith in Papelbon to turn it around. He had a period like this last year too and rose past it. It always seems to shock us when Paps isn't perfect, but he's still better than the lion's share of the closers out there. Also consider where his last 2 saves were blown. What, a power pitcher give it up at Coors Field? Shocking proposition.

First day back from injury I write Daisuke a mulligan for the 5 innings thing and the outing was otherwise respectable.

It hasn't turned out yet.

"upside" not "worth," genius. There's a difference.

yeah sure, and every bit of our discussion so far is predicated on the idea that the kid could disappear tomorrow but you have to admit he's intriguing. His minor league numbers are impeccable: This kid has ALWAYS hit. The question is whether there's a hole in his game big league scouts can exploit, and I for one am betting against it.

So here's what I'm seeing in the whole Papelbon discussion. The known issues with Papelbon seem to be pitch efficiency, lack of secondary stuff and overreliance on the fastball as a result. It seems to me that the last time these issues were not true was in 2007, when he was being groomed during the Spring as a starter and was forced to work on efficiency, secondary stuff, and not just trying to blow it by hitters. Therefore, every Spring, we should go through the charade of stretching Paps out for the Spring to force him to re-take a crash course in these known issues. Maybe he'll be more effective that way and get back to his old great stuff.

There is nothing seriously wrong with Jonathan Papelbon. It's a common career trajectory for any star player and especially relievers. A couple years of brilliance followed by many years of very-good. I fully expect Paps to put his bad outing behind him and be a solidly effective closer for the rest of the year. Also, I bristle at "better" when comparing a middle reliever/setup man with a closing reliever, it really isn't apples-to-apples. The closer is the guy who gets the brunt of the advanced scouting from opposing team, you need to be a lot better than the middle reliever just to do as well as the middle reliever. Besides, you have your own concerns about Bard's usage and I echo them, and as well, the difference in performance between Bard and Paps is exactly two bad innings so it's not exactly heaven-and-hell here. And I have no problem paying Papelbon if that's the best way to maintain maximim relief depth in the bullpen, even if that means that Bard isn't closing. As long as Papelbon is a good closer it doesn't bother me too much that there's a better reliever in the pen, that just means that we have a decent pen.

But you can look at the body of work and use that to judge which side of that particular balance is more likely to be the real deal. So which is more reasonable, that righthanded power pitcher can dominate a pitcher friendly NL park but struggles in a lefthanded power hitter's dream stadium, or that this guy suddenly got good after a whole lot of years of mediocrity seasoned with flashes of brilliance?

You make points I'm inclined to want to agree with, but I still think Nava has a better chance to stick in RF than LF if he can hack ir defensively. Look around the league, there's a *lot* of makeshift right fielders out there right now, it's a surprisingly shallow position. An .855 LF is OK, an .855 RF is a strong asset. I would like to see him get regular chances in right and see how he handled the right field corner. It would really help both him and us out if he could play there.

Every now and again I'm embarrassed to be a Sox fan. this guy puts a 163 ERA+ in a "down" year and you all go ballistic when he blows his second save in the third month of play. It's like we can't stand prosperity. Who cares if Bard is better? We need them both right now. You're allowed to have more than one capable reliever you know.

Define "stick." If you mean "start," he has a small window of opportunity. Drew will be in the last year of his deal, so will Cameron, so Nava should get every opportunity to audition for either RF, or for LF with Ellsbury moving back to CF. In particular I'd like to see how he handles right field -- that's his best bet because if he tries to stick it out in left Theo's going to replace him with Carl Crawford, or failing Crawford whatever big thumper he can get his hands on the first chance he gets. In right field that's harder so he has a better chance to prove himself above average and keep a starting job. He'll have to hit and keep hitting though. But if by "stick" you just mean "stick on the roster" I think he's got a great chance play a role similar to Kevin Youkilis in 2005 (except obviously in the outfield) and "stick" in that sense -- and then his future is determined by whether and how much he hits. Basically if he keeps hitting opportunities will open for him o play on the basis that Theo isn't stupid and wants to win. No one's going to lay out a red carpet though. He's going to have to earn every AB and defensive appearance he gets.

The only meaningful hit Giambi will make all year. Ahh well.

Or at least one particular member of that fanbase.

Sounds like if he's talking about getting back into athletics he's already come out way ahead of where you'd be afraid a guy might. When I heard about that conference call the first thing that crossed my mind is "This is going to be a retirement." Good to know that wasn't the case.

So let's talk left fielder. I kinda think that McD has regressed to the mean, although he still might pull his weight as a 3 position LIDR. I don't know when Hermida and Ellsbury are coming back so I don't count on them. That means we probably have an impending issue in the outfield again. Ultimately what we have between us and a bona fide hole at the position is a 27 year old switch hitting rookie. So is anyone/everyone here of the opinion that Nava can hold down the fort until our wounded outfield gets its stuff back together? Or should we go fishing in a fairly shallow outfield trade market?